The Second Battle of Ypres

I had a good discussion today with a history teacher about what would have happened if the Germans had sufficient reserves ready to exploit the gap in the lines created by the German chlorine attack at Ypres. How successful could they have been? Could it have been a war winning attack for the Germans? Your thoughts please.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
No possible way it is a war winning attack. They Germans take Ypres and they will lose momentum for the same reason other breakouts do, easier for defender to bring up reserves than attacker. I had the Germans take Ypres because they were stronger in my TL, attached is map. Now it does give the Germans some benefit. You can't see it on this map, but it will threaten Harcourt rail hub. You can shut down Dunkirk and once more ammo for heavier guns are available make Calais unusable. So what happens? UK routes the rail lines farther west and/or uses other ports more.

Now I guess you could argue they could take Calais or invest Calais. If either happens, the UK will recognize how serious a threat this is and will give it max effort to stabilize and retake. Gallipoli has not happened yet, so if by some odd effect the Germans invest Calais, the UK will just use the Gallipoli forces to fix. It is an important enough objective that they will bring the Grand Fleet to support if needed. IMO, 99% of time Calais will not fall to Germans due to British reaction. In my TL, the Germans made some advance and took Dunkirk in a later battle before the British brought down predreads for direct fire support to regain lost land.

Now if you somehow the Germans take Calais and hold, you get a host of issues for the UK. None fatal in and of itself, but Germany sending Torpedo boats and U-boats directly into the channel combined with 350mm or 380mm coast guns in Calais will make the life hard for UK, who will just establish Dover barrage west of our location. Normandy is not a bad guess.

What did you think would happen?

Note: Blue line would be about right for German advance. Stopping on the high ground and reserving the Ypres bulge.

Ypres 1915 Jan.png
 
The best case for Germany would be they badly maul the British counterattack, quickly seize Ypres and split the Allied lines. If they drove to the coast they could possibly surround the Belgium Army and take them out of the war. That as I said would be best case, everything goes great scenario.

The worst case for Germany, they get a few more miles of territory, inflict more Entente casualties and capture more Entente soldiers.

I did not look at the possible naval consequences, but I enjoyed your insight.
 

Deleted member 1487

Conquering the rest of Belgium and the last remaining free city of any size would have some interesting political consequences for the Entente. Belgium, specifically its king, were somewhat a fragile partner in the war effort, which means that something like this would have an effect on their willingness to hold out as the war goes on. This will have major consequences in 1918 if all else remains similar to OTL; a major obstacle to the success of the German offensive Georgette is removed, which would have some potentially decisive effects in that sector in April 1918.

Map_of_German_Lys_offensive_1918.jpg


kyyy.jpg


final.jpg


Edit:
Combining BlondieBC's map with these shows that the Germans would have had awesome observation points and could have really rolled up that area with a proper grand offensive. As it was the heights around Ypres sucked in far too many resources during the 1918 Lys offensive, which could have been used to push harder at Hazebrouck. Though ITTL perhaps we would get operation George instead of Michael, which would shift the focus to the Channel ports in March 1918 instead of splitting the French and British. The results could have been devastating.
 
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BlondieBC

Banned
The best case for Germany would be they badly maul the British counterattack, quickly seize Ypres and split the Allied lines. If they drove to the coast they could possibly surround the Belgium Army and take them out of the war. That as I said would be best case, everything goes great scenario.

The worst case for Germany, they get a few more miles of territory, inflict more Entente casualties and capture more Entente soldiers.

I did not look at the possible naval consequences, but I enjoyed your insight.


Whether trough battle or the morale impact, losing this battle could easily see Belgium effectively leave the war. I don't think the Germans are likely to defeat the Belgians in this battle, but maybe a followup. The British normally had a squadron of capital ships in London, and if necessary, they would simply bring them down for direct fire support to save the Belgians. The heavy guns would be devastating to the Germans, and in fact, just a good number of cruisers would likely break any German advance if they pushed too fast towards the sea. But the Belgians will lose the last of their country and could easily take heavy KIA/WIA in this or followup battles. As their manpower declines, it becomes harder to justify staying in the war.

My map gave about what I consider the best realistic case scenario for the Germans. A worse case would be taking just Ypres but not the high ground a few miles to the south. Without the high ground, it will be difficult work defending the bulge from attack from 3 sides.

Now the issue I left out largely is butterflies. If I was writing a TL with a big German win, one would have to look at a lot of decision points. I mentioned Gallipoli possibly being cancelled. But one would also need to look at any potential impact on Bulgaria or Italy entering the war. Probably more moving the entry date than changing if they entered. You might get a more aggressive UK conscription policy. Nothing like "Huns in Calais" to get votes for conscription. I strongly suspect the 1916 offensive by the UK will be in this sector. I really seeing a threatened Ypres becoming an obsession of the War Cabinet. It might impact German Naval strategy, but this is hard for me to see clearly. It could have some impacts on Wilson's behavior.

The problem for German is that it is very hard to get a war winner anything in early 1915. A-H is collapsing in the east so the Germans have to change focus. They have ammo shortages and are trying to raise the training level on second class units that have been called up. It is like a lot of "Germany does a little better in the West in 1914 or early 1915 POD", it is hard to see how Germany can knock France or UK out before they have to turn East in about May 1915. And after they go east, it is 1916 before the Germans have any battles that can be decisive in the West. Germany had too many problems and too few corps in early 1915.
 
Whether trough battle or the morale impact, losing this battle could easily see Belgium effectively leave the war. I don't think the Germans are likely to defeat the Belgians in this battle, but maybe a followup. The British normally had a squadron of capital ships in London, and if necessary, they would simply bring them down for direct fire support to save the Belgians. The heavy guns would be devastating to the Germans, and in fact, just a good number of cruisers would likely break any German advance if they pushed too fast towards the sea. But the Belgians will lose the last of their country and could easily take heavy KIA/WIA in this or followup battles. As their manpower declines, it becomes harder to justify staying in the war.

My map gave about what I consider the best realistic case scenario for the Germans. A worse case would be taking just Ypres but not the high ground a few miles to the south. Without the high ground, it will be difficult work defending the bulge from attack from 3 sides.

Now the issue I left out largely is butterflies. If I was writing a TL with a big German win, one would have to look at a lot of decision points. I mentioned Gallipoli possibly being cancelled. But one would also need to look at any potential impact on Bulgaria or Italy entering the war. Probably more moving the entry date than changing if they entered. You might get a more aggressive UK conscription policy. Nothing like "Huns in Calais" to get votes for conscription. I strongly suspect the 1916 offensive by the UK will be in this sector. I really seeing a threatened Ypres becoming an obsession of the War Cabinet. It might impact German Naval strategy, but this is hard for me to see clearly. It could have some impacts on Wilson's behavior.

The problem for German is that it is very hard to get a war winner anything in early 1915. A-H is collapsing in the east so the Germans have to change focus. They have ammo shortages and are trying to raise the training level on second class units that have been called up. It is like a lot of "Germany does a little better in the West in 1914 or early 1915 POD", it is hard to see how Germany can knock France or UK out before they have to turn East in about May 1915. And after they go east, it is 1916 before the Germans have any battles that can be decisive in the West. Germany had too many problems and too few corps in early 1915.

All true, but a big victory at Ypres, especially if they knock Belgium out of the war takes a lot of pressure off on the Western Front. This should allow the Germans to focus on Russia in 1915 and look to launching an offensive on the Western Front in 1916. Perhaps the German High Seas Fleet begins an aggressive campaign in the English channel to take advantage of their improved tactical situation there.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
All true, but a big victory at Ypres, especially if they knock Belgium out of the war takes a lot of pressure off on the Western Front. This should allow the Germans to focus on Russia in 1915 and look to launching an offensive on the Western Front in 1916. Perhaps the German High Seas Fleet begins an aggressive campaign in the English channel to take advantage of their improved tactical situation there.

Maybe with some butterflies. But in reality, it makes its worse in most TL. Gallipoli was a mistake. In late 1915, the Entente almost broke the German lines in the West. Well, at least as close as they would come until mid 1918 to a large advance. The Germans had to move 300+ battalion back in a rush move to save the day. If you add in the 15 or so divisions at Gallipoli to France, the Germans commanders lives become a lot harder. Less pressure is applied to Russia. There is an off chance that the Entente win in 1915. It is about the only quick win POD possible for the Entente that does not involve another country joining the Entente at the beginning. I am pretty sure that in most ATL with a "big" German win at second Ypres, you endup with the Ottomans in a vastly better situation and the Germans having more troubles. Probably net win for the Germans, if they survive 1915 ok, since the Ottomans will eventually cause issues elsewhere. Germany having more reserves available in Ypres on the first day of the battle does not increase the overall level of German reserves for the war. My TL is a bit different because the Germans had more reserves for almost the entire war due to the POD.

If you look at what the Entente did, the had a unfocused strategy. Russia pursued a A-H first plan. France a German first plan. UK did Ottomans first plan. If they would have just pick one country, the war goes better for the Entente.

Now if the Germans take Calais, I don't see High Seas Fleet entering the Channel. Too easy to get cutoff. What I do see is a focus on U-boats, mines, and smaller surface ships interdicting the England to France supply routes from Calais to Normandy. Around Normandy somewhere, the "Dover" barrage will be built. What this means is that supplies have to be landed in French ports farther from the front and moved longer distance over rail. It has an important but hard to quantify help for Germans. It is largely the point of my TL how fewer supplies harm the Entente. I can't show exactly which battle it will be, but there will be some battle that was a French win that becomes a German draw. Or a German failed attack becomes a minor breakthrough. Important but not huge. I had the Germans take Ypres and Verdun by the end of 1916.

Now if you have a major butterfly like holding Calais, it will change the German naval decision in many ways. Maybe no ASW. Maybe at different date. Maybe earlier or later type Jutland battle. It is just High Seas fleet entering English Channel is very unlikely. More likely direct actions is UK is concerned about it, so it would move another squadron or two to London or Portsmouth. Maybe from Scapa Flow, more likely ships used at Gallipoli.

And what would I guess a German "big win" means at end of day. Most powers enter war within 6 weeks of OTL dates. Gallipoli cancelled. Ottomans do a lot better. They have enough reserves in east to stop any Russian breakthroughs. Iraq battles fought nearer to Basra. Gaza never falls. We see a lot more Ottoman troops on Eastern Front. Fewer Germans. Germans still lose, but it could be a few months later. Ottomans/Turkey is a lot bigger than OTL. Now I see some potential big butterflies that can help CP win, but each is less than 40% chance of happening. Maybe no USW or not enough USW for USA to enter. Maybe Bulgaria comes in months early or Italy stays out. Maybe UK makes the odd decision to still deal with Gallipoli despite threat to Calais. Odd, Odd call, but possible.
 
If a lot more u-boats are busy laying mines in the Channel, could the sinking of the Lusitania be butterflied away?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
If a lot more u-boats are busy laying mines in the Channel, could the sinking of the Lusitania be butterflied away?

It was a hit or miss deal anyway, so it is likely butterflied away by almost any naval POD. But since the Germans sunk other ships that upset the USA, eventually something else will be sunk to upset the USA. Unless you believe this changes the introduction of USW, which I sort of doubt. And even with no USW, so many mines and U-boats in the channel can easily lead to some sinking that upsets the USA by accident.
 
With so much of the British fleet engaged in the Channel, perhaps the German High Seas Fleet sorties toward Scapa Flow hoping to engage and defeat a smaller portion of the British fleet before the ships in the Channel can react.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
With so much of the British fleet engaged in the Channel, perhaps the German High Seas Fleet sorties toward Scapa Flow hoping to engage and defeat a smaller portion of the British fleet before the ships in the Channel can react.

I did a TL where the British lost around 30 capital ships and the Germans lost around 1. The odds never favored the Germans. And all the little things we praise the Germans for doing well work well for the British. The British submarines are effective and numerous. The British have lots of cruisers. They have lots of destroyer/torpedo boats. The odds are still in British favor.

Now maybe the German fleet does try to go towards Scapa Flow or Scarbourgh. They did IOTL. They might get a tactical win, just like Jutland favored Germany OTL. It just does not have a big impact, barring the UK overreacting (a real possibility). Geography is destiny in many wars. It was here for the German surface fleet. Even if the Germans get say 10 more capital ships and 15K more dead RN sailors than OTL, it does not change the naval balance enough.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Conquering the rest of Belgium and the last remaining free city of any size would have some interesting political consequences for the Entente. Belgium, specifically its king, were somewhat a fragile partner in the war effort, which means that something like this would have an effect on their willingness to hold out as the war goes on. This will have major consequences in 1918 if all else remains similar to OTL; a major obstacle to the success of the German offensive Georgette is removed, which would have some potentially decisive effects in that sector in April 1918.


Edit:
Combining BlondieBC's map with these shows that the Germans would have had awesome observation points and could have really rolled up that area with a proper grand offensive. As it was the heights around Ypres sucked in far too many resources during the 1918 Lys offensive, which could have been used to push harder at Hazebrouck. Though ITTL perhaps we would get operation George instead of Michael, which would shift the focus to the Channel ports in March 1918 instead of splitting the French and British. The results could have been devastating.

Well, looking at how it unfolds assuming my bulge is about right. It will be early 1916 before we see a grand offensive in the west. In early 1916, there was heavy flooding in the area, so it will be Verdun again. I don't think it is enough to keep Romania out of the war in most scenarios. In 1917, should play out similarly. So now we are to the H/L Duo. I see them still likely do an unfocused attack at many angles. The difference this time is a much better jumping off location. I think they will likely make the channel coast and cutoff Calais. By this time the UK will have huge rings of defense around Calais, I would bet it holds. But the UK has likely stripped the lines south of Ypres compared to OTL. Amiens will be less important as will Harcourt since the UK has long since switched it ports and rails to avoid this area. I think the attack south of Ypres will be much more successful than OTL. I don't really see a war winner, but I do see the war lasting longer. I guess with even a month or two delay to the Allied offensive, we see the offensive likely drag deep into 1919, if we assume a winter break. And the Ottomans still hold Gaza and Baghdad. I don't see Allies trying to make peace.
 
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