The Saxon Hercules Stays Lutheran

If Carl decides to march to Moscow it doesn't matter how bad Russian army is. Distance alone would deteat him.

True.

As much as I'm enjoying the spirited discussion of who would get Poland and how Russia would turn out, I'm wondering if we aren't getting bogged down a little in what's going on in Russia (before the POD) and how this will affect a war with Sweden. Hence I'm positing a new scenario. Basically, we still get a Wettin Poland (for lack of any real better option that everyone can agree on).

August the Strong gets elected king of Poland (like @Vitruvius pointed out, August basically carried things forward by sheer bravado at his election), but his brother had died leaving an infant son. The regency was supposed to go to August, but on his conversion to Catholicism, it was decided that a Catholic "foreign" regent would hardly act in a Protestant princedom's best interests, and so August was forced to resign the Saxonian regency in favour of his cousin, Johann Adolf I, duke of Saxe-Weißenfels on behalf of the infant prince. However, Johann Adolf dies later that year (1697) and Saxony undergoes a squabble over the regency between Johann Adolf's eldest son (Johann Georg) and his brother (Heinrich of Saxe-Weißenfels-Barby).

This is where it gets interesting. Because Johann Georg of Saxe-Weißenfels himself is underage (briefly) and August the Strong became regent for him as well. Not only this, but Johann Georg of Weißenfels made his duchy an important centre of commerce and the arts in Germany, plus he was interested in building a fleet (I was unaware that Saxony had sea-access which one would need to build a fleet, but hey, the last king of Württemberg was also ship-crazy so I guess it's not unthinkable).

Heinrich, OTOH, is ruling a county that Johann Adolf regarded as rightfully his (so there's likely to be some bad blood between brothers), and objected to his dad (August of Weißenfels) partitioning his lands among his sons. However, much like his nephew in Weißenfels, Heinrich's rule was known for it's economic and cultural importance for Barby. In addition to this, Heinz was also a soldier of some renown from his time fighting the Turks in Hungary. However, he runs into the same problem as August in that he converted - from Lutheranism to Calvinism in 1688. Which means he might be of the mind that he's the senior Protestant Wettin male but the other male Wettins are saying "no, bub".

Which brings us to the next senior Wettin male - Johann Georg and Heinrich's half brother, Friedrich Erdmann (b.1673). He was a military man and was resident in Dresden from the 1680s, he later became a lieutenant general, so once August gets entangled in this whole war with Sweden thing, I could see Saxony jumping in (if Friedrich Erdmann's regent)

I figure that August being elected means that things are going to go more or less as OTL for most of Europe - for a while at least. Maybe when August the Strong gets deposed in the early 1700s, he heads back to Dresden in the hopes that he can lasso Saxony into helping him get his Polish throne back. The Saxonian estates are probably gonna say "nope" (unless Friedrich Erdmann is regent - and even then, it'd depend on how the young elector feels about his uncle most likely)
 
So let's assume Conti gets elected, and refuses to join Peter's alliance against France.

Peter was not in any alliance against France. Anyway, at least formally, when anti-Swedish alliance was formed (I don't know for sure who joined whom but it seems that Patkul was at least initially acting as August's representative which, if true, means that Peter joined August) the PLC was neutral and August was acting strictly as Elector of Saxony. So Conti would keep the PLC neutral and, because Riga and Livonia in general are on the wrong side of the PLC from Saxony, the Saxonian interests in such an adventure are anything but clear and possibility of invading Livonia is close to zero. See OTL map below.
Ax00965.jpg



Peter becomes a bit more hesitant, but once France--the only power that seems likely to intervene in Sweden's favor--becomes embroiled in the WotSS, the benefits of seizing Ingria outweigh the risks, and invades Sweden in late 1700...

I don't think that anybody expected direct French involvement on the Swedish behalf even without WotSS and, anyway, Swedish military reputation was high enough to discourage Peter from acting on his own especially keeping in mind that the benefits of seizing Ingria had been quite questionable (Narva was not in Ingria and it was the only place of a non-zero value in Peter's share of the planned spoils). Getting into such a war without a seemingly strong ally (according to the initial plans, August was going to get all the valuable territories except for Narva which should give an idea about partners' relative importance as seen in 1700). Reliance exclusively upon the Danes was still too great a risk. I'm not saying that combination was completely impossible but, IMO, it was quite unlikely.

BTW, most of Karelia was in the Swedish hands since 1617. Not sure if getting the rest of it would make any practical sense from the Swedish perspective economically or strategically: they already had enough forests, swamps and lakes in Finland and Russian attack on Sweden through Finland was not a reality in a foreseen future.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Not sure where to post now that this has been reopened. Anyways, I guess you have two possibilities, the first is Frederick Augustus, as Regent of Saxony for his nephew, converts and manages to get elected King of Poland but that leads to the million dollar question, does the Great Northern War still happen with a weaker Augustus II of Poland who can't count on the support of the Electorate of Saxony? The second possibility is that instead Conti is elected Francis I (or maybe Louis II) of Poland in which case the Great Northern War as we know it definitely doesn't happen. But even then, how long can peace last? Charles XII doesn't seem like the type to sit idle, nor does Peter of Russia as he really wants a port on the Baltic. So when/how the inevitable conflict breaks out is an interesting question.

I'm not sure that Charles XII would have much to gain by intervening in the War of Spanish Succession. OTL all he got from the Habsburgs during the Great Northern War was a pledge from Joseph to respect the rights of protestants in Silesia, and really what more is there beyond that. We're well past the point in the 30YW when Sweden could effect the religious and geo-political settlement in central Europe and Sweden has no skin in the game vis a vis Spain and the the Bourbon succession to it's throne. So I think Russia, Denmark or Prussia would either have to provoke a conflict or, more probably, present an opening too tempting for Charles to resist.
 
I'm not sure that Charles XII would have much to gain by intervening in the War of Spanish Succession.

A proposed (by Count Piper) scenario was to "sell" his army to a higher bidder thus gaining both money and "glory". This was still possible at that time, at least in theory.
 
Not sure where to post now that this has been reopened.

I'm just as confused, but let's go with this thread since it has been unlocked. And I agree that Carl has nothing to gain/presumably little interest in the WotSS, although I likewise can't see him sitting idle. Makes one wonder how he plans to spend his free time and energy? He'd have to marry, no excuses to get around it TTL.

A proposed (by Count Piper) scenario was to "sell" his army to a higher bidder thus gaining both money and "glory". This was still possible at that time, at least in theory.

Well, the Hessians did it later in the century and made more than a pretty penny off it, so Carl might decide to bulk up the Swedish treasury by doing this.
 
So if Augustus still becomes King of Poland the big question is, does the Great Northern War still play out like OTL. He's objectively a weaker King than OTL without the resources of Saxony so would Peter second guess going to war with Sweden alongside Augustus? And if they do go to war I'm not sure that Augustus could recover his throne when Charles XII deposes him. Sure he can withdraw into exile in Saxony but would the Saxon Regency stick their necks out for him at that point when things look rather bleak. I think you're right in saying nope.

It would be interesting if things go a little differently and James Louis is installed as King after Augustus. IIRC it was only his arrest by Saxon forces that prevented that from happening OTL.

To be fair, how Saxony responds to August's deposition would probably depend very much who the regent is (and how much say the young elector is allowed in matters of policy - and how he feels about his Catholic uncle). I personally would like to see how Saxony gets a navy. I'm not sure how Johann Georg of Weißenfels planned to do that OTL, but it sounds like it's going to require either a purchase of a port from someone or war to get a port (in which case, Saxony might be marching right alongside Poland).

The idea of Jakub Sobieski becoming king of Poland on August's deposition is equally fascinating. I've suddenly got this image of OTL Louis XV marrying Clementina Sobieska instead of Marie Leczszynska (yes, I know it was a set of very specific circumstances that led to that match coming about, but the idea of Clementina getting an actual king rather than one with no crown and no country, is nice. Besides, Clementina was born to be a queen (or a nun) personality wise IMO, so Versailles would be an awesome setting for her to have that role in). :p
And the practical difference would be .... zero? :)

Wife of Louis XV, unless she is an accomplished "lady of an easy virtue", would not play any significant role except for the breeding purposes and purely ceremonial occasions (I'd consider an option of her being a modified copy of Sophie of Anhalt-Zerbst but not sure if this would work without a whorish component). As for Versailles, AFAIK, Louis XV did not like it too much and preferred accommodations with more privacy like Petit Trianon or his private apartments in Versailles (which are much more cozy and "livable" than those of Louis XIV).
Maybe, maybe not. OTL there was a "rivalry" of sorts between Marie Leczszynska and the duchesse de Bouillon (Charlotte Sobieska), with Charlotte claiming that "she didn't know who Marie's father was" IIRC. Plus there were several snide remarks about Marie's arrival that the only cosmetics she'd ever known before becoming queen was snow, and several courtiers commented "one did not even know who her grandparents were" - something I don't think that they would be able to say about Clementina. Also, Clementina was more highly strung than Marie, and when she heard a rumour James III had a "mistress" she made a frightful scene in Rome. Could just imagine how she might react to the presence of Mme de Chateauroux or one of the Nesle sisters.

But that's in the future.

For now, let's say that Johann Georg of Weißenfels winds up as regent for his cousin, the elector (mostly because I wanna see how Saxony gets a navy :p). The fact that there are two separate heads of state in Poland/Saxony means that they're going to be allies, but not necessarily moving in lock-step. In fact, the elector of Saxony might decide there's more to be gained in the WotSS than in getting involved in the GNW.

From the other thread

Augustus' entry to GNW seems problematic. Would Saxon troops fight to carve up hereditary duchy from Swedish Livonia for son of regent of Saxony?

Presumably not. Which means that they're gonna want something from August/Poland for their involvement, I guess
 
I was wondering, and @alexmilman can say if this is a stupid idea or not, but Pyotr's nieces were married to guys who had access to the Baltic (the duke of Courland and Mecklenburg-Schwerin). Is it unthinkable that he either marries one to his ally in Saxony (the church will kick up a fuss about an Orthodox grand duchess wedding a Catholic German prince, to say nothing of the Poles getting a crown prince who is married to a princess who is not only Orthodox but Russian) or not? I mean, Ekaterina I tried (IINM) to marry one of her daughters to the Marechal de Saxe. And the same Marechal tried to become duke of Courland by marrying Anna Ivanovna, didn't he? So, obviously the (Protestant) Wettins and the Romanovs were seen as marriage material.

A scenario like this is what I imagined:
Peter and August make a treaty (insert reason here) during their war against Sweden (which may or may not be a the GNW of OTL). The treaty says that Peter will back August's (and his son) claim to the throne of Poland (maybe August has lost his throne and looking for Saxon help to retake it. Saxony's attitude is lukewarm, since they're busy with a dustup known as the WotSS (ICR if they were actually involved or not). In response, August will help Peter do (insert goals here). They decide that a marriage is a fine way to seal it, only problem is, August's son is to be future king of Poland, Sejm will have a fit if they get an Orthodox queen, so August proposes his nephew, the still unmarried Elector Johann Georg V. Peter's not so sure, but will consider it if Saxony joins his and August's war. The elector of Saxony attends talks in Torun (or wherever) about this alliance, and Peter basically tells him "and all this could be yours for the low low price of wedding one of my nieces". (I can't think of a reason why Saxony would want to get involved - unless it's because August has limited control of the Polish army (IIRC, the Sejm controlled exactly what the army was used for, and I don't think they'd back a landgrab so that the king can snatch territory in Livonia (or wherever) - whereas if it was national defense it was another story).
 
How would a Protestant Saxon electoral family affect the 18th century? Would Poland see Catholic Wettins pass in (more or less) orderly fashion on their throne? For instance, would Emperor Josef's daughter still be married to the Polish crown prince if there's no certainty of a throne (the Polish is elective, so that's uncertain, but he's a sort of non-entity in Saxony, especially if Johann Georg V marries and has sons of his own).
 
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