The Sarajevo Crisis

I got this idea from a discussion in another thread regarding how to keep Britain out of WWI via a more defensive and East focused German military strategy.

My idea is take this to turn the Great War into little more than a major geopolitical incident.

Say the Germans decide on an East First policy, with the intent of keeping Britain out of the conflict. Now this could come with the aggressive Moltke moving out of the picture in 1912\13, and the General Staff picking the aove mentioned strategy.

Now this could butterfly Franz Ferdinand's assassination, however given Austrian intent towards Serbia even an attempted killing would probably prompt similar ultimatums, plus there's a chance butterflies could lead to one of the in-place gunmen killing him instead, removing Princep from history.

Situation kicks off much like OTL, Serbia rejects ultimatum, Austria declares war on Serbia, Russia mobilises. Now here, if Germany, attempting to appear defensive merely rushes troops to its Easten and Western borders as a show of strength. Russia may think twice about invading, but they wont demobilise thats pretty certain. Here is the chance to avert war, unwilling to look the aggressor, Germany is waiting for the Entente to declare war, confident the war in Serbia will do the trick.

Days and weeks pass, a lot of puffing of chests across the continent, Britain attempts to intervene diplomatically.

Meanwhile in Serbia, the Austrian like OTL are floundering in their offensive. Given the coverage of the war, and with the Archduke alive (posssibly) they'll be less real anger towards the Serbs, while they wont request German aide incase they look weak or provoke the Russians.

Finally after a short vicious campaign, unable to break through to Belgrade. Through Britain, the Tsar promises to backdown if the Austrians come to the table. Having had plenty of time to sober up from the days of July, Vienna is very aware of the precipice- they agree.

Treaty of Naples(?) is signed, ending the brief Serbo-Austrian War, also known as the Third Balkan War. Serbia agrees to comply with the ultimatum points which dont infringe its soveriegnty, while Austria is forced to pay compesation. Serbia has made it powerful position as a free Slavic state clear, while A-H suffers a slap in the face, much like the Tsar in the Russo-Japanese War.

The Archduke's radical reform ideas fore the structure of the Dual Monarchy are given far greater attention now in Austria, particularly as the war has only emboldened Hungarian nationalists further.

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Bit vague and short-term but what do you think as a start?
 
If Franz Ferdinand remains alive, there will be no ultimatum and no war with Serbia.
So, let's assume he and his wife are killed like in OTL. Berchtold and Conrad now are free of his control and can do what they did.
The problem is to find someone in the German General Staff who believes in the power of the defense, they all believed in the power of the offensive. - May be one can trigger a review by an incident during a manoeuvre, say artillery accidentally firing live ammunition against attacking infantry. The incident leads to a series of tests and trials, finally establishing that fire effectively can stall movement under current technical conditions.
But the Germans, who know this now, don't tell anyone. The rest of Europe still believes they will attack via Belgium into France. So, all Entente planning remains unchanged.
But the German have changed their plans now considerably, digging in a high proportion of their forces in favourable positions and keeping the remainder as reserve. Now they can mobilise without declaring war on anybody and just can wait to be attacked.
 
Without Franz Ferdinand alive and well, the Austrians have very little political options. The AH Empire is in the bad position of being considered the 'New Sick Man of Europe', the Young Turks in the Ottoman Empire are doing a job of sorts getting the OE out of its deathbed.

The Austrians need decisive action in order not to appear on death's door and having the Serbian situation decided by a European conference, where the tiny Serbs will be treated as equals, is just bad press. Kaiser Wilhelm II even knew that. There is also no doubt how negotiations will come down and any decision that weakens Austria weakens Germany.

With Franz Ferdinand alive and well, the Austrians most likely wouldn't issue such a stiff ultimatum.
 
But the Germans, who know this now, don't tell anyone. The rest of Europe still believes they will attack via Belgium into France. So, all Entente planning remains unchanged.
But the German have changed their plans now considerably, digging in a high proportion of their forces in favourable positions and keeping the remainder as reserve. Now they can mobilise without declaring war on anybody and just can wait to be attacked.

Why would Europe believe that the Germans will attack via Belgium? Joffre in France didn't believe that and the British didn't believe it either.
 
The heir to the Imperial and Royal thrones is shot at by Panslavic terrorists and you guys think AH wont be quite angry or interested in using the situation to their advantage versus Serbia?
 
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