The Samson Option 1973

What would have happened if the Egyptians had been slightly more succesfull early in the Yom Kippur War and the Isrealis had used their nuclear option to prevent defeat?
 

Tellus

Banned
Tactically against enemy forces, or strategically against their capitals?

The former I could see. Obviously we'd need to find a new "World's worse kept secret" with the Israeli bomb out of the closet, but if its used tactically, Israel on the verge of conventional collapse could probably justify it's action to the world and live on.

If it was used strategically on a large scale, however, we'd have the hottest flash point of the cold war. Soviet retaliation against Tel Aviv would not be out of question, with all that entails. Alot depends on whether the Americans are willing to accept such an Israeli overreaction and the immense ensuing carnage, or whether they'll sever their ties completely with Tel Aviv over it. There's no question that world opinion will turn sharply against Israel.

Of course the timing also matters. The earlier in the Arab assault they use their weapons, the larger the PR hit. If they essentially wait until Tel Aviv is burning, blaming them becomes more difficult, and Israel is finished regardless. If they nuke everything as soon as their lines collapse, people would still be arguing today that they lost on purpose just to justify the destruction of their foes.
 
What would have happened if the Egyptians had been slightly more succesfull early in the Yom Kippur War and the Isrealis had used their nuclear option to prevent defeat?

The Egypt front wasn't any danger to Israel. They would have to pass the whole of Sinai (about 100 km) to reach Israel, and had made no preparations for any large offensive. The explicit goal of the operation was "the east bank of the Suez channel and a meter". Later offensives were only made because the syrians demanded support, and failed.

The real danger were the Syrian offensive against the Golan. There were several potential break-throughs without any good defensive positions to fall back to. A tactical nuclear attack against the Syrian tanks after some days of intense fighting would probably be written of as extreme self-defense in an extreme situation.

Some interesting results would be
a) the arab countries would demand nukes from the Soviet Union, that would refuse. This could lead to hostility between the arab contries and the Soviet Union - would Saddam Hussein have Stalin as idol?
b) overthrowing of the losing regimes?
c) more black market deals with nuklear materials / weapons?
 
Egypt signed the Non-Proliferation treaty in 1968, but did not deposit it until 1981. I'm not sure how that would affect a nuclear attack by Israel on Egypt. Would the signatories be obligated to respond, including with nuclear weapons?
(BTW, Israel has never signed or ratified said treaty.)
 
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