The Russian Provisional Government's Seperate Peace

The Russian Provisional Government following the July Crisis, Kerensky agrees to a seperate peace with Germany. Giving up more or less the same territory as the Brest-Litovsk could the Russian Provisional Government and/or the Petrograd Soviet survive a Bolshevik attempt at takeover?
 
No, because the White movement was seriously unorganized and ending the war against Germany would've only stopped the foreign funds and aid.
 
The Petrograd Soviet never had to worry about a Bolshevik takeover--they were essentially Bolsheviks.

As for the Provisional Government, while this does grant them quite a bit of street cred, they actually have to get the support of the Bolsheviks, the Mensheviks, the other 'sheviks, and most of the other multidinous parties in Russia before it'll actually work out. Getting the Mensheviks is really the biggest thing: they're real big in the countryside, where most of Russia's population lives. The Bolsheviks would help as well, since they would bring in a good deal of the urban population.

So, get Kerensky to make friends with the Bolsheviks and Mensheviks and you should be at least partially set.
 
No, because the White movement was seriously unorganized and ending the war against Germany would've only stopped the foreign funds and aid.

True. On the other hand, it's possible that the Bolsheviks would see reduced popular support - after all, they would have lost one-third of their "land, bread, peace" platform. The main question is whether it would be enough to make a substantive difference.
 
The Russian Provisional Government following the July Crisis, Kerensky agrees to a seperate peace with Germany. Giving up more or less the same territory as the Brest-Litovsk could the Russian Provisional Government and/or the Petrograd Soviet survive a Bolshevik attempt at takeover?
From what I understand, they wouldn't have to give up as much territory as Brest-Litovsk. Even by February, the demands of the Central Powers were quite a bit more moderate. Considering that a Provisional peace-negotiation seems less likely to do a Trotsky-style walkout, it would, IMO, seem likely that the Provisional Government can emerge with a treaty a great deal more lenient.
 
The Petrograd Soviet never had to worry about a Bolshevik takeover--they were essentially Bolsheviks.

As for the Provisional Government, while this does grant them quite a bit of street cred, they actually have to get the support of the Bolsheviks, the Mensheviks, the other 'sheviks, and most of the other multidinous parties in Russia before it'll actually work out. Getting the Mensheviks is really the biggest thing: they're real big in the countryside, where most of Russia's population lives. The Bolsheviks would help as well, since they would bring in a good deal of the urban population.

So, get Kerensky to make friends with the Bolsheviks and Mensheviks and you should be at least partially set.


Actually, why not get Kerensky to make friends with the moderate wing of the Bolsheviks (i.e. Kamenev, Zinoviev, etc). That should split the Bolsheviks and weaken their overall strength, giving the Provisional Government more power in the cities. That still leaves us with the problem of the Mensheviks though.
 
The SRs and Mensheviks were already by this point allied in the Provisional Government and the Petrograd Soviet, this is the Kerensky government following the May collapse of the 1st Coalition.
 
The Bolsheviks are irrelevant in this situation. They are a fringe group whose only point of appeal IRL was that they were offering peace, bread and land while the other socialist parties were being drawn into the Provisional Government or offering convoluted peace proposals that were unlikely to be accepted. If the Provisional Government declares that it is seeking a peace treaty then I think the reaction of the Bolsheviks simply doesn't matter as much of their support will melt away. The key groups are the Mensheviks, Social Revolutionaries and the Kadets (for their support amongst the middle classes and access to foreign powers plus economic elites). A peace deal could be sold to the former two if it wasn't very harsh. You would have difficulty persuading the Kadets though who were taking on a very nationalistic mantle by this stage.
 
You would have difficulty persuading the Kadets though who were taking on a very nationalistic mantle by this stage.

The fact that the countryside was more or less going under in increasing anarchy as soldiers from the front deserted and various mirs/communes were declaring independence could be enough...if the point is gotton through that the country is breaking apart already perhaps.
 
I don't see why when they refused IOTL in exactly the same situation. Besides, peace means the demobilisation of millions of peasants which is going to exacerbate the situation.
 

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The Russian Provisional Government following the July Crisis, Kerensky agrees to a seperate peace with Germany. Giving up more or less the same territory as the Brest-Litovsk could the Russian Provisional Government and/or the Petrograd Soviet survive a Bolshevik attempt at takeover?
This is the one move which might save the Kerensky government, and no they would not be giving up "more or less" the territory of BL, they would lose Poland and Luthania at most.
 

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This is the one move which might save the Kerensky government, and no they would not be giving up "more or less" the territory of BL, they would lose Poland and Luthania at most.

Very true. There might be some other provisions regarding food, but otherwise AH had no claims and Germany wanted a quick peace that allowed them to finish the Western Allies. This all creates tremendous butterflies though: Russia is cut off from all aid from the Americans and British, which leaves the new government without money to rebuild and major debts. Russia would be an economic basket case and Kerensky though rightly that it wasn't worth cutting a separate deal because if Russia stuck out the war the Americans would decide things and Russia got a seat at the peace table.
The Russian people could not wait though and OTL happened.
If Kerensky somehow realized that the nation would fall apart and into civil war, which is hard to imagine, then Russia would be out of the war yes, but economically screwed. The Allies were going to take out their frustration on Russia by denying her foreign money and expertise even after the war, leaving the devastated nation to rebuild somehow on its own though it has no internal capital, no markets, no access to foreign money, and major debt.

The Allies have Russia by the proverbial balls and it would be a mighty desperate government that exited the war with all this hanging over its head.
 
Economical support may instead come from Germany after the war as an early seperate peace increases the likelyhood of a German victory in WW1. Once the War is over German buisness interests would soon see the opportunity of investing in Russia.
 
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