Britain and France need allies, if they can't get the US for whatever reason, it's wouldn't be wrong for the two to find other countries that can help in their interests. They'll of course try to keep America happy, but they need more friends if they're serious about fighting the Quadruple Alliance.
The Russian Century - a TL
- Thread starter Onkel Willie
- Start date
El_Fodedor
Banned
Brazil can't help and even if it helps it isn't worth the risk of having the US as a Russian-leaning neutral, let alone a member of the Russian alliance.
I'm not saying they couldn't try to get Brazil on their side. Just that any idea of propping up Brazil as a "bulwark against the US" would be instantly shut down due to these issues.
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The British and French need to work hard to convince this more isolationist USA to join them. If not, they might as well accept that their time in the sun is going to end. They're are going to have to make some major decisions.
That's some uncharacteristically clear eyed thinking from the Japanese military leadership there
Yeah if anything they wouldnt ally with the Russians. There's an extreme level of factionalism on Japan this time around, they may just leave the alliance just as easily.
It would be very stupid to step toes of United States. Last thing what Britain and France need is Americans clsoening their ties with Russia and Germany. So Brits and French leave Latin America alone if they are smart.
What Austria-Hungary? There hasn't been such country since end of the Great War. It is just Austria-Bohemia and totally land-locked nation. It has probably close ties with Germany and will remain neutral on future conflict.
What would the us even do if britain and france allies with some South American countries, since some countries like argentina and Brazil already have a close ties with Britain, so the US couldn’t do anything if those two nations decide to allies with the uk and france
What benefit would Argentina and Brazil obtain from allying with the Entente? I think that will weigh much more heavily on the decisions in Buenos Aires and Rio than any arcane mystery such as "balance of power" or "strategic imperative."
Especially in this case where it is blatantly obvious that the Entente's goal is none other than to send Argentines and Brazilians to die in the name of London getting even richer and that's it.
I am not so sure that Argentina or Brazil are so willing to waste blood and gold in a desperate attempt to keep the British Empire in one piece. But here it seems to be assumed that it is so obvious that they SHOULD do it that there is not even an argument for WHY they should.
In any case, I could see Germany promising Malvinas to Argentina if they are friendlies...
El_Fodedor
Banned
And Brazil could get the Guianas, which are a much bigger reward than wharever London can offer.
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you know, with japan now an allies with germany and russia, would they be able to convice those two nation to start inventing more of the navy money to carrier, since carrier would be way cheaper and way more effective than building those battleship
Are the Guianas really that valuable compared to the economic/commercial/diplomatic ties an alliance or even a neutral but friendly relationship with London can bring?
To do that they would need to actually see the effectiveness of Carrier warfare in action compared to battleships, wouldnt they?
Given that it is 1939 and colonialism is still believed to be a good idea, it could see Brazil interested in acquiring the Guianas even if from a 21st century point of view it is a colossal economic mistake.
Evidence: Argentina continues to claim the Malvinas even if economically they will not be able to benefit from them.
What benefits will Brazil get from allying with the British Empire? Unless we consider it a benefit to lose the Franco-German-Russian-Japanese market, lose your trade to German submarines, send hundreds of thousands of Brazilians to die in Eurasia in the name of London, in addition to destroying their economy trying pay for all this... I think the benefits are non-existent.
Brazil and Argentina don't have any serious interest to join the Entente (and sacrifice their soldiers for London), nor to join the Alliance (at the risk of losing valuable trade with Britain... and angering the USA). Only neutrality makes any sense for them.
Well, maybe if the USA have already joined the war, and Germans are sinking neutral ships, they might join the Entente (at little risk as an invasion of South America by Eurasian powers is absolutely impossible). They'd probably deploy a few ships to help the Entente patrol the ocean, maybe a few thousand soldiers, and that's it.
Or conversely, if Britain and France just have fallen, they might swiftly take over Guianas and Malvinas (preempting a German takeover).
So either full neutrality or low-level involvement.
Well, maybe if the USA have already joined the war, and Germans are sinking neutral ships, they might join the Entente (at little risk as an invasion of South America by Eurasian powers is absolutely impossible). They'd probably deploy a few ships to help the Entente patrol the ocean, maybe a few thousand soldiers, and that's it.
Or conversely, if Britain and France just have fallen, they might swiftly take over Guianas and Malvinas (preempting a German takeover).
So either full neutrality or low-level involvement.
the only way i see brazil getting involved directly would be if the emperor of russia by some miracle prevented the republic's coup against the empire. Even so, it will be a light support, nothing massive. Nations always act in their own interest. Maybe if argentina for some crazy reason suports russia, then brazil would join uk. But outside of that it is difficult considering that it is more advantageous to be neutral and sell to all sides.
the usa is not such a huge factor, in this period at least, for argentina and brazil. his power is greater but not invincible. If for some strange reason a war happens it will probably be a naval war and without an absolute winner. The USA ( of this period and considering the size of the two countries, it may not be possible to occupy until today.) does not have the capacity to invade Brazil and Argentina and occupy the territory and vice versa. argentina and brazil at that time were nations on the rise in america. Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world and Brazil had the second largest navy in America. What happened was an explosive and continuous rise of the USA and a stagnation and fall of Brazil and Argentina.
No, the idea was supposed to be, as I understood it, that Brazil and Argentina decide to buy the British balance of power theory and immediately enter into an alliance with the UK to help them counterbalance the Quadruple Alliance. Of course, this does not address the fact that, realistically, the people of these countries would surely not be at all happy about basically being called to death in the name of London's war-mongering and imperialist urge to destroy European countries in the name of balance of powers.
But yes, if TTL's British Empire is anything like OTL's, it is very likely that they will try to make some casus belli, like Brazilian ships being sunk. (And no, that British submarine passing by had nothing to do with it, obviously it was the Germans, how can you think otherwise?).
I mean, OTL there are people who truly believe that the Allies dedicated themselves to sinking ships from Mexico and Brazil to convince them to enter World War II; It would not be strange for TTL to create something similar...
El_Fodedor
Banned
There's also another matter: Brazilians and Argentinians aren't idiots.
Why would you enter a lost war where there can be only meager profit to make? You can make a nation fight a lost war if this is their only choice for survival (an existential war), but why would Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires agree to join London's and Paris' death wish? They have little if any chance of defeating Russia and Germany alone (best they can do is to avoid the conquest of France), but things become really desperate when you feature Japan and Italy too.
Brazil entered both world wars, that's true. But both times they entered on the clearly winning side. They made the safest bet they could.
Even if Germany sinks a couple Brazilian ships, this isn't going to make Brazil jump in into a pointless suicidal crusade across the Atlantic.
Why would you enter a lost war where there can be only meager profit to make? You can make a nation fight a lost war if this is their only choice for survival (an existential war), but why would Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires agree to join London's and Paris' death wish? They have little if any chance of defeating Russia and Germany alone (best they can do is to avoid the conquest of France), but things become really desperate when you feature Japan and Italy too.
Brazil entered both world wars, that's true. But both times they entered on the clearly winning side. They made the safest bet they could.
Even if Germany sinks a couple Brazilian ships, this isn't going to make Brazil jump in into a pointless suicidal crusade across the Atlantic.
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Because supposedly joining the Entente in an all-out war with no valid goal beyond the warmongering urges of London and its pal Paris brings immense commercial, economic, and social benefits. So huge that nobody has bothered to develop them until now.
As I criticized, my main complaint towards this premise is that the people who believe that Brazil and Argentina should join this war are so sure that they SHOULD do so that they don't even bother to explain WHY they should do it.
Okay, yes. Because "economic logic", "strategic imperative" and "maintaining the balance of power in the world".
Beside both Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro have bones to pick with London (Falklands and Guyana)
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