The Robert Stanfield Revolution: A Canadian Politics TL

It's become something of a habit for me to comment on how I don't update this timeline much, and then proceed to not update it. And although I know it doesnt make up for me not updating this TL much (if ever), I can say that the next update will be up before Tueday. Here's a little sneak peak.

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United Kingdom General Election, 1978, and the Conservative Party (UK) Leadership election, 1979
After weeks of rampant speculation that he would call an election, Prime Minister Jim Callaghan announced On September 7, 1978 that he would be doing exactly that, with the election to be held on the 13 of October. With the Prime Minister popular, the British Economy chugging along, and the opposition Conservatives suffering both from the unpopular leadership of Ted Heath and internal strife, the election was from the beginning something of a foregone conclusion. Memories of the 3 day week remained, and hurt the Tories. Whenever the Tories would criticize Labour for some aspect of their economic management, all Labour had to do to effectively neutralize the attack was make a reference to the 3 Day Week. Not helping the Tories either was the fact that the economy was much improved from when Labour had taken over in 1974.

Labour meanwhile, was blessed. Not only by the healthy economy, but by the their leader. Jim Callaghan had earned the nickname "Sunny Jim" due to his optimism, and this optimism matched the mood of the Labour party, as they were optimistic of winning a landslide. Callaghan ran a good campaign too, though this was undoubtedly helped by the favorable hand of cards Labour had been dealt.

But ultimately, the biggest problem for the Tories that election was that they lacked something to build their campaign around. Labour had only been in power 4 years, nowhere near enough to run a "time for change" campaign, and the economic performance of the day and Heath's baggage in that area meant the Tories could not run an effective campaign on the economy either. This combination, along with the unpopularity of Heath's leadership both among the General Public and a fair amount of Tory MPs, doomed the Conservatives to opposition from the start. The only question was how big the loss would be.

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On election night, Labour went from a minority government to a majority of 106. The party gained almost 10 points over it's October 1974 result, and gained some 52 seats. Callaghan's Gamble had worked. He now had a majority mandate until 1983 at the very latest.

For the Tories, the election went about as well as one would have expected. Although they won more votes in then they had in 1974, the lost 31 seats, pushing them Below the 250 Seats mark. After losing 3 elections in a row, it was simply impossible for Ted Heath's leadership to continue, and he resigned shortly after the loss.

As bad as the result was for the Tories, it was perhaps worse for the Liberals. They lost almost 2/3rds of their October 1974 vote, and over half their seats. Needless to say, this was not a good first election result for the Liberal Leader David Steel. Despite this, Steel pledged to stay on and help rebuild the Liberals.
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Almost as if his leadership was cursed, the moment Ted Heath resigned as Leader of the Conservative Party, the party's fortunes improved in a big way. After Heath's resignation, many unions came out in Opposition to Jim Callaghan's proposal to combat inflation by limiting pay rises. Strikes followed, including from Garbage Collectors and Gravediggers, causing Garbage to pile up in the streets and bodies to go unburied in certain parts of the country. Not helping was Callaghan's attitude towards these strikes, as he seemed often times out of touch. This was perhaps best symbolized when Callaghan answered a question from an interview with "I promise you that if you look at it from outside, and perhaps you're taking rather a parochial view at the moment, I don't think that other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos.". The next day, the Sun declared Callaghan deeply out of touch, which was a view shared by many Britons.

It was under this background that the Conservative Party was to elect it's new leader. The race was almost entirely a 2 way race between William Whitelaw and Geoffrey Howe. Whitelaw had name recognition, experience on the Frontbench of the Tory Party, and most importantly, broad support within the Parliamentary Conservative Party. Yet he was hurt by his ties and close association to Heath, and his loyalty to Heath in the 1975 Leadership Race particularly haunted him. While Howe too had served in cabinet under Heath, he was largely unhurt by any connections to Heath, and had the Support of Most Tories who wanted a break from Heath, becoming the de-facto change candidate in the race.

The race ultimately had few Candidates enter. The contest came down to Whitelaw, Howe, Heath's 1975 Challenger Margaret Thatcher, and Heath's last Shadow Chancellor Robert Carr. Carr's chances for the leadership were slim from the start. He not only lacked a core support base, but he was also deeply tied to the unpopular Heath. Thatcher meanwhile, had the support of the more right wing elements of the Tory Parliamentary Party, and her strong anti-union credentials helped her with the strikes occurring. However, most of what one might call her base, the right wing of the Tory Party, supported Howe, making it unlikely that she would win the leadership.

As the race went on, it was anybody's guess as to who would win. Logical cases could be made for either candidate winning. The only way to know for sure would win was to see who won. On the first Ballot, held on the 8 of January, Whitelaw was in the lead but very narrowly and nowhere near a majority, at just under 37%. Howe was a close 4% back at 33%, Thatcher was far below at 20%, and Carr was miles below that at 9%. Carr was, as widely expected, eliminated on the first ballot. On the Second ballot, Whitelaw actually extended his lead over Howe because of Carr MPs flocking mostly to him. Despite this, after the 2nd Ballot, it was all but assured that Howe would take the leadership. This is because it was widely known that Thatcher backers (or Thatcherites, as they had been somewhat playfully nicknamed) would break overwhelmingly for Howe. With Whitelaw at only 41.0% on the Second Ballot, and a majority needed to take the leadership, Whitelaw needed almost half of the so-called Thatcherites to support him, which was extremely unlikely.

In the event, Howe won the leadership on the Third ballot with 54.6%, after some 8/10ths of Thatcher MPs broke for him.

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With their Leadership set, the Tory Party prepared itself for one more stint in opposition before hopefully returning to power.
 
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