The Rise and Fall of the Afrikaner Confederation: 1575-2004

I haven't really put a whole lot of thought into that aspect of the scenario.

What do you think will happen?

I think the sixth iteration of the TL will feature Slovakia going with the Hungarians and the Czechs going with the Germans.

The Czech rebellion can then stab the Germans, not the Hungarians, in the back.
Well, mostly OTL, if you refer to the Polish-German border changes after the Great War- the minimum loss for Germany would probably be Poznan, and the maximum would probably be their OTL losses minus Danzig. A relatively likely result would probably be that they walk away with a minimalist interpration of the Corridor and all of Silesia.

One problem with the Czechs going up against the Germans is that the Germans aren't just placed in convenient border areas- they were also spread in enclaves all over (mostly) Bohemia, which means the Government has an already in-place loyal force that can- and almost certainly will, out of self-defence- act to fight the revolutionaries, and that the Czechs, well, would be comparatively smaller as a minority in Germany than in Hungary. That, of course, means it is less likely to cause really Bad Stuff to happen to Germany, compared to what your version here does to Hungary.
One idea might be to scrap the Great Czech Revolt, as such, and replace it with a Great Slav Uprising- the Czechs, Slovaks, Ruthenes, Croatians and Slovenes all rising up, co-operating to strike against Germany and Hungary. That'd be bad news for Germany. Or just have the Slovaks, Croats and Ruthenes fill the role of the Czechs, if you want to limit it to Hungary (and want to let Germany keep Slovenia- a bad side might be that it might force you to keep Czechia in Germany, as well). Either way, an independent Slovakia is most likely in the cards. Croatia already seems to have gotten independence at some point- I guess after Hungary sued for peace- so for them, not so much change, I guess- although their national pride might be more with a more active part in bringing down the Hungarian oppressor!
 
Hmm...the Hungarians IIRC were among the most obnoxious of the prewar ethnic nationalists, attempting to "Magyarize" everyone else.

They might provoke a nationalistic revolt, while the Germans might not.
 
Hmm...the Hungarians IIRC were among the most obnoxious of the prewar ethnic nationalists, attempting to "Magyarize" everyone else.

They might provoke a nationalistic revolt, while the Germans might not.
If I recall correctly, at least for OTL you are right- and I think trends are likely to go in the same general direction here.
 
Why do events happen similarly like the Soviet Union, or the American Revolution at around the same time centuries after the POD? :confused:

It's in response to Reddie's AH Challenge "Cold War: The United States vs. the Apartheid Juggernaut."

Ergo, I had to have convergences with OTL, even though the "butterfly effect" would eliminate people like Washington, Lenin, etc.
 
So far I've read the timeline to 1800, and the first thing that comes to mind--and I know this can't be the first time you've heard this--but it is so much more realistic than Stirling. One of the things that I've always thought is unforgivable about the Draka is the way a culture that idiosyncratic just gels out of nowhere--a little Wilde, a little Gobineau, and voila! Here, there's much more nuance and complexity.

For instance, the fact that the Calvinists apparently don't know quite whether to or how to assimilate native Africans into their religion. There's a heated debate among historians of the concept of race as to whether white-black/European-African racism pre-existed the institution of slavery, or whether expropriating Africans for slavery as a practice grew out of an earlier racist sentiment. It seems the confusion of the Calvinists in the early seventeenth century over what to do with respect to the Africans and Christianity gets it close to the mark.

Later, I think you show a really excellent grasp of the complex economic structures associated with colonialism, for instance the imposition of taxes to create a situation of economic dependence.

In general, it's very detailed and very interesting.
 
DW,

Thanks for taking a look. The 20th Century and 21st Century are even more fun to read about than the earlier ones--if anything, because there are more wars and more gadgets.

It is actually the first time I can recall anyone telling me it is more realistic than Stirling.

About the use of taxation, my model was the "hut taxes" the Europeans imposed to get the Africans out of their villages and into the cash economy (when they simply didn't outright enslave them).

About slavery, I read once that the King of the Kongo visited Portugal and was treated with all the respect a European monarch would have had. I think back then, religion was the big issue, not race.

What are you referring to when you ask about the Africans and religion? I know the Afrikaners briefly practice slavery. Did I include the historical anecdote about the practice of communion (which I believe is from OTL)?

Ian,

Thanks for the name-change. Hopefully this will get more attention.

General Question #1:

In OTL, South Africa punished its neighbors for harboring anti-apartheid elements through "destabilization"--funding any rebels and troublemakers they could find in order to weaken enemy nations. In some cases, this included attempts to keep the neighbors dependent on South African infrastructure by attacks on economic targets IIRC.

I reworked a synopsis for a short story set in this timeline and wondered if the Confederation could engage in this sort of thing in a bit more "enlightened self-interest" kind of fashion--instead of destruction for destruction's sake, to create puppet states (out of separatist groups they sponsor or by forcing the entire government to 'toe the line' a la Ethiopia). This will require less effort in the long run, as the puppet states will be able to police themselves.

Since the European states maintain colonies in Western and Northern Africa all the way to the 21st Century (if not even later due to demographic changes) and the European states are all members of the League of Democracies, this could make things even more tense.

(My story is set in the Ouaddi Sultantate, which isn't democratic enough for membership in the League of Democracies but is too valuable as a buffer for French Algeria, Italian Tunis, Libya, and Egypt to let twist in the wind.)

General Question #2:

If France and Italy are less damaged by the World Wars (OTL's World War II is largely fought in Eastern Europe and Asia), will they be able to generate enough surplus population to hold onto their colonies?

Algeria stays French and Tunis Italian until 2010 at least. The only reasons I could think of to justify this would be more surplus population to export (fewer dead in the wars) and fewer places to put it (due to Afrikaner snagging of much of the valuable real estate earlier on).

General Question #3:

The Sikh state is a relatively new addition to the timeline. Is it too small? I wasn't sure just how much territory it would control and it also seems a bit too far north--IIRC the Sikhs ruled the Punjab and on the map, it looks like it's in the middle of the N.W. Frontier Province.
 
It is actually the first time I can recall anyone telling me it is more realistic than Stirling.

Ian,

Thanks for the name-change. Hopefully this will get more attention.
The Afrikaner's growth is significantly more realistic than the growth of the Draka (the lack of a colonial master that you began as being highly loyal to, for one thing), and you haven't indulged in Space-Filling Empires for the sake of Space-Filling Empires, and those are just a few of the Draka TL's more glaring problems. I'd certainly call it more realistic than Stirling's story.;)

Your signature might need updating, by the way.
 
Oh, you're welcome. And I basically just stopped there because it was late and I wanted to get down my response to the first half before I read the rest.

I didn't know about the hut taxes, although I did take a look at the Dutch cultivation system in their colonies in what would become Indonesia for my timeline, and certainly the system you adopt here seems closely analogous to that.

There's a whole very rich scholarly literature about early modern Europe and Africa, much of which gets picked up in scholarship about the Shakespeare play "Othello", which was where I first encountered it.

The evolution's actually very interesting: people's feelings of fascination and sometimes revulsion at others who looked different in a way they had never seen before at around 1600 is at the other (say, around 1800) these rigidified notions of supremacy and hierarchy supported by their own pseudo-science.

And to some degree the relationship of the planters in the West Indies to the development of European anti-African racism isn't that controversial.
Most of the really egregious ideas that circulated in the nineteenth century about Africans got their start in Edward Long's 1774 History of Jamaica, the publication of which was financed by Jamaican sugar planters to defend their labor practices to a British audience. (By the way, you may want to read Long's History of Jamaica if it's in a library near you. It's very uncomfortable stuff, but it explains a certain mindset with absolute clarity, and it gets cited by every pro-slavery polemicist for a long time afterward).

It's a really fascinating chicken-and-egg problem. Now, to the best of my memory from when I researched all this ten years ago, in the late seventeenth century there was an evolution in the North American English colonies away from indentured servitude and the use of the Irish and lower class English in colonial field labor towards more use of slaves, and at the same time enslavement on the basis of religious difference proved problematic because once the slave converted to Christianity the master had to set him or her free. So both problems were solved by the legal evolution of slavery to a race-based category tied to an immutable characteristic (in short, the idea is that someone can convert from Islam or an indigeneous religion, but can't convert from their skin color). Once this class of permanent slaves became established under English law, the chasm between they and the rest of the society in terms of their treatment and the estimation of their value as persons could only widen, really. And the rest of society had only an incentive to rationalize their subordination.

Now, here's the fascinating bit for purposes of this timeline: everything I just said is specific to the English colonies of North America and the Caribbean. The French experience in the Caribbean, much less what went on in the actual Dutch Cape Colony, I can't speak to. And fascinatingly, you've developed a timeline where these same forces and prejudices confront each other, and like I said, have a very realistic evolution over time.



DW,

Thanks for taking a look. The 20th Century and 21st Century are even more fun to read about than the earlier ones--if anything, because there are more wars and more gadgets.

It is actually the first time I can recall anyone telling me it is more realistic than Stirling.

About the use of taxation, my model was the "hut taxes" the Europeans imposed to get the Africans out of their villages and into the cash economy (when they simply didn't outright enslave them).

About slavery, I read once that the King of the Kongo visited Portugal and was treated with all the respect a European monarch would have had. I think back then, religion was the big issue, not race.

What are you referring to when you ask about the Africans and religion? I know the Afrikaners briefly practice slavery. Did I include the historical anecdote about the practice of communion (which I believe is from OTL)?
 
Battle of York (1778 AD)-General Robert Harms decides to “roll the hard six” and attacks the minor British settlement of York (present-day Toronto) from his bases in the Ohio Valley. This battle will give the infant US the Niagara Peninsula, which includes Toronto, Oshawa, Bramptom, Peterborough, etc. between Georgian Bay and Lake Erie.
Time travelers, eh?

York wasn't founded until 1793!!!! Although there had been a small settlement there, the land wasn't purchased from the Mississauga until 1787. And the settlers were United Empire Loyalists. Who don't exist at this point.

Read Z's article on Canadian History!
 
Time travelers, eh?

York wasn't founded until 1793!!!! Although there had been a small settlement there, the land wasn't purchased from the Mississauga until 1787. And the settlers were United Empire Loyalists. Who don't exist at this point.

Read Z's article on Canadian History!

Hmm...if there was no settlement there, how might the U.S. get hold of the Niagara Peninsula during the Revolutionary War?

Can I simply handwave settlement there by the non-existence (I think) of the Proclamation of 1763 in TTL?
 
First Cinchona Plantations Established (1675 AD)-Faced with lots of malaria deaths among the settlers of the interior, the Afrikaner leadership learns of something called “Jesuits’ bark” used to treat tropical fevers in South America. The Afrikaners import some cinchona trees and set up plantations. The plantations don’t do well at first, since they’re in the temperate zone of South Africa proper, so plantations are set up in Angola and Mozambique, where they do better. Within two decades, malaria is brought under control in the region, although the tsetse flies remain a problem. “Jesuits’ bark” becomes an Afrikaner export, although the anti-Catholic Afrikaners don’t like the name.
Given how long it took for Cinchona plantations to be established outside South America, this 'import some cinchona trees' seems ... a bit quick and easy.

Making sure you've got the right tree, getting it way from the locals/Jesuits who control the supply, learning how to grow the trees, etc. This isn't like ordering a couple of rosebushes from your nearest nursery.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would involve a major effort and international skulduggery, which, considering amount of resources that *Afrikaners would be as expensive as a moon shot for the US today (or more).


Also, if everyone's using cinchona bark (quinine), the malaria parasites in Africa will develop immunity to it within a couple of (human) generations. If it's only a small subset of the ruling class using it, the resistance may not happen - but you seem to suggest it's much more widely spread than that.
 
Given how long it took for Cinchona plantations to be established outside South America, this 'import some cinchona trees' seems ... a bit quick and easy.

Making sure you've got the right tree, getting it way from the locals/Jesuits who control the supply, learning how to grow the trees, etc. This isn't like ordering a couple of rosebushes from your nearest nursery.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would involve a major effort and international skulduggery, which, considering amount of resources that *Afrikaners would be as expensive as a moon shot for the US today (or more).


Also, if everyone's using cinchona bark (quinine), the malaria parasites in Africa will develop immunity to it within a couple of (human) generations. If it's only a small subset of the ruling class using it, the resistance may not happen - but you seem to suggest it's much more widely spread than that.

Given how the native Africans outnumber the Afrikaners and probably have a greater immunity to the parasite anyway, I would imagine only the Afrikaners are using it.

International skullduggery--that could be fun. Just how controlling of the Chinchona (sp?) plant were the Jesuits?
 
Hmm...if there was no settlement there, how might the U.S. get hold of the Niagara Peninsula during the Revolutionary War?

Can I simply handwave settlement there by the non-existence (I think) of the Proclamation of 1763 in TTL?
If the *US got control of Lake Ontario (which might be a bit tough, cause I don't think there were many US settlements on the lake. Oops, fort Oswego was built 1722 in what became NY), it might be easier to keep the Brits out - you can't take a warship from the St. Laurence into Ontario, IIRC - most of the war ships on the lake were built there OTL. So, if Harms builds a fort at Ft.Frontenac/Cataraqui (modern Kingston), and they already have control of Ft Oswego, they may have Lake Ontario controlled, which would give them all of what's now southern Ontario (province).

There, that do you?
 
Given how the native Africans outnumber the Afrikaners and probably have a greater immunity to the parasite anyway, I would imagine only the Afrikaners are using it.
Even so, malaria is a nasty killer even in areas where people have some resistance - if the Afrikaners want there work force to be more productive they may (MAY, depending on cost) treat their native work force.

I was assuming that the Afrikaners were going to be 10%+ of the population (whites are still at 9.1% in South Africa today), possibly quite a bit higher.

Of course, I don't know how that will affect the Falciparum evolution. Does drug resistance come at a metabolic cost? Will resistance develop if 10% of the population takes the drugs? My guess is that resistance will develop, as malaria has developed resistance to several drugs OTL, some of which are not widely used by poor locals, AFAIK.

The other possibility, of course is that the whites just take the land where malaria isn't a problem. The south, the High Veldt (basically much of OTL Zimbabwe), etc.

As for how protected the cinchona was. Not something I know a lot of, but I do believe that the Jesuits (and locals?) were quite protective of their sources. Of course, it probably took them some time to get enough control....

The first plantations outside of South America OTL weren't until the 1800s, if I read/remember the Wiki article correctly.
 
Dathi,

Thanks for the input.

The Afrikaner settlement sticks to the coast and highlands (like Kenya) as they move north--there aren't a lot of them that settle in "the disease zone" until later on.

I also have an earlier discovery of the mosquito vector. :)

Also good idea re: building forts on the Great Lakes. In the OTL War of 1812, there were naval battles on the Lakes, so there might be some in TTL's revolutionary war.
 
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