John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Say Ronald Reagan never goes into politics; who does the right wing of the GOP turn to and/or rally around following Goldwater's defeat in 1964?
The Right w/o Reagan
- Thread starter John Fredrick Parker
- Start date
bguy
Donor
How about James Buckley? He's a very strong conservative who successfully knocked off a liberal Republican Senator in 1970 and is the brother of a conservative icon. OTL he made a last minute effort for the GOP presidential nomination in 1976. With Reagan not in the picture, he might make a much more forceful attempt.
Or if Buckley fizzles out then maybe William Roth of Delaware. Roth was a big time tax cutter, and Goldwater singled him out by name in his Conscience of a Majority book for the work Roth did as a Congressman in investigating waste and duplication in federal social programs.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Interesting that without Reagan, the Right's biggest young star would be Third Party candidate -- that seems, to me, to confirm that without Reagan, his "Revolution" would not have happened...
Jack Kemp had the personality and policies to be a leading voice of conservatism. He would need to learn to be more focused (his VP debate against Gore in 1996 was a disaster) and have some lucky breaks to acheive Reagan's success but he had Reagan's ability to be an "optimistic" conservative.
bguy
Donor
Well that's a little dismissive of Buckley. He was a United States Senator and eventually became a Federal Appellate Judge on the D.C. Circuit, so he was quite a bit more substantial than your typical Third Party bombthrower. And there will still be a lot of conservative Senators without Reagan. Laxalt, Helms, Thurmond, Brock (if his '76 defeat gets butterflied away) will all still be there to help pull the GOP to the right. They will be influential even if they don't control the party.
But yeah without Reagan we most likely see moderate Republicans dominate at the presidential level for at least a generation. Nixon in '68 and '72. Ford in '76 (assuming Watergate doesn't get butterflied), and then Bush, Baker or Dole in '80 and '84. Probably the best the conservative wing of the party can hope for is to get someone like Roth or Kemp as Vice President, which would set them up to run for President in 1988.
Dan Reilly The Great
Banned
Well, REagan never entering politics at all does have some knock on effects, since having someone else in the governor's mansion in California in the 60's will invariably cause some kind of political butterflies. However, assuming that someone else comparable on the right doesn't make an appearance at around the same time, you will probably have a major vacuum of enthusiasm in the American political arena from the late 70's into the early 80's. This could leave things open for the next charismatic politician on either side of the isle to become an ATL analogue of Reagan, but possibly with an even more dramatic effect, at least on the public's perception.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Of course, unless the butterflies cause it to be otherwise, the Cold War will be over by then, and the glue that held modern ("fusionist") Conservatism together, anti-communism, is no longer relevant. And without Reagan's legacy to draw on, the Right will have to change into something else...
I'd love to see a Kemp of Buckley Presidency. However, in order to make Buckley credible in 1980, he'd have to win re-election. The only way I can see that is if Congresswoman Bella Abzug wins the 1976 Democratic nomination for Senate. Buckley (according to wikipedia) was originally believed to be safe for re-election until Moynihan made a last minute entry into the New York Democratic Senate primary. Maybe by 1980 Buckley is seen as credibly enough to run and possibly win.
Also, for Bill Buckley, I think he could be a charismatic leader of the Conservatives. Maybe he's appointed an ambassador during the Nixon Administration and in 1974 there's enough Liberal vote-splitting between Javitts and the Democrat to win with around 35%. It'd also be cool to see him as Mayor of New York City in 1965.
Possible leaders of Conservatism sans Reagan:
James Rhodes
Paul Laxalt
Bob Dole
the Buckley Brothers
Jack Kemp
Barry Goldwater
Barry Goldwater Jr.
Donald Rumsfeld (stays in Congress, becomes major Republican leader, possibly elected Speaker of the House at some point)
Also, for Bill Buckley, I think he could be a charismatic leader of the Conservatives. Maybe he's appointed an ambassador during the Nixon Administration and in 1974 there's enough Liberal vote-splitting between Javitts and the Democrat to win with around 35%. It'd also be cool to see him as Mayor of New York City in 1965.
Possible leaders of Conservatism sans Reagan:
James Rhodes
Paul Laxalt
Bob Dole
the Buckley Brothers
Jack Kemp
Barry Goldwater
Barry Goldwater Jr.
Donald Rumsfeld (stays in Congress, becomes major Republican leader, possibly elected Speaker of the House at some point)
bguy
Donor
Well Moynihan only won the primary by about 1%, so an Abzug victory is very possible. Though Buckley might chose to forego running for reelection and instead challenge Ford.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Looks like the Right wouldn't be lacking leadership sans Reagan at all...
I'm just wondering who Grover Norquist would want everything to be renamed after if St. Ronnie wasn't around.