The Rhineland Accident of 1935

I also believe that there would be a rift between France and Great Britain and that Germany might be able to reach an agreement with the British, especially if there was a leftist govt formed in France.
 
I also believe that there would be a rift between France and Great Britain

Very likely...

and that Germany might be able to reach an agreement with the British,

Surely, since they did historically as to naval construction plans. But you are hinting at an agreement about the Rhineland, right? If so, the contents of it would be...?

especially if there was a leftist govt formed in France.

Which is almost a given, historically it happened and I don't see the Rhineland mess in this ATL happening just before the elections changing the result.
 
Britain really did not favor left leaning governments and it is possible that a Germany lead by someone other than Hitler might very well have gained British support against French occupation of the Rhineland. In addition if the Monarchy was re-established it would result in a closer connect with Britain. It is also possible that with the monarchy restored that relations with Poland and Czechoslovkia could improve. It should also be noted that Italy was most unhappy with the French and when the popular frant came to power the Italians were more than willing to do anything to weaken France.
 
The situation simmered for two months more. The League of Nations offered its good services and mediators made the rounds, meeting with Hitler, then Blum, then Hitler again, but achieving nothing. The French would withdraw only after a solemn commitment by Hitler not to militarize the region, and Hitler would never undertake that.
The internal political scene in France was undergoing a subtle shift. The right, highly nationalistic and in the habit of considering Germany as the arch-enemy, was now exploiting the Rhineland situation to embarrass the government and some of its leaders saw they might have ideas in common with the Nazi philosophy. The left loathed the Nazis, but they had an internationalistic tradition and did not want to be seen as warmongers. The military's proposals for improving readiness seemed to revolve around the idea put forth by De Gaulle in the title itself of his booklet: a professional army, which was against the grain of the popular army of citizens-soldiers that the left very much preferred. So the proposals went on the back burner.
Meanwhile, the German and British negotiators in London were making progress as to their naval deal. The prevailing British view was that it was possible to have reasonable dealings with Germany, and that the French were pointlessly obdurate.
On June 23-25, the British Foreign Minister Eden met with Mussolini in Rome. The meeting had been planned to discuss about another flashpoint, the Italian-Ethiopian controversy which had come to a firefight at Wal-Wal. However, that seemed a secondary problem when compared to the possibility that any further accident in the Rheinland might bring about another European war. A small colonial venture was small fry in comparison. Eden and Mussolini worked out an agreement. Britain would turn a blind eye to Italy's African projects if Mussolini supported the British in mediating between the French and the Germans.
During July, the German Foreign Minister Von Neurath and Hitler's personal foreign-policy envoy Ribbentrop repeatedly traveled between London and Rome. By now, it seemed the diplomatic situation would come to a head in September, in the assembly of the League of Nations which would have to deal with both disputes: the Italian-Ethiopian and the French-German. This seemed to put a deadline to the negotiations.
On the ground, the plight of the German citizens in the occupied area was worsening. The Germans had cut the power lines and even the most basic supplies of foodstuffs; they blamed the French army for all shortages, and thus forced the French to take care of that. The French began supplying food and all basic services and utilities. In turn, this gave way to allegations by Goebbels that this was evidence that the French were out to annex German territory. A self-proclaimed "Saarbrücken Kommune" came forth, offering the French collaboration "in the spirit of international Communist brotherhood". The French said these were actually Nazi provocateurs, and wanted nothing to do with them, but the idea that there might be German Communists stepping into a sort of power void did strike a chord both in Germany and abroad.

- What happened next?

 
A difficult position for the French. If they stay an admonishment (much more seems unlikely) from the league of nations seems inevitable. If the league won't quite go this far, hostility from Britain, Italy and the rest will effectively amount to the same thing. The obvious answer would be to withdraw but would Blum's government handle the humiliation? They probably could if they can get some deal with Hitler, even if it means allowing german re-occupation, however an unconditional withdrawl on the otherhand would be difficult to justify as a victory. Would Hitler accept some sort of 'shared occupation'? If French soldiers would prove too emotive, perhaps some sort of token league force from Britain or Italy? It would seem that regardless of whether the French stay or get out relations with Britain (on both sides of the political divide) are going to be at the lowest point since Fashoda nearly four decades ago. Rightists might ridicule the leftist government but they will never accept a humiliation of France.

On the otherhand, if the British are officially turning a blind eye to Italy in Ethiopia and British financiers are likely providing a ready source of currency then Anglo-Italian relations have probably never been better. A joint Anglo-Italian view on naval matters would have considerable clout with regard to the other European powers and their respective navies. With the French breathing down his neck its likely Hitler will give Britain what she wants in any case and the navy is likely even less of a concern in this time line.

The outbreak of communist dissidence in the Rhineland would likely just make the nations of Europe more opposed to the French occupation and make them apply more pressure to inspire them to leave. This could well cause the opposite effect if Hitler won't even go through the motions of making some sort of deal.

Speaking about the threat of communism how is Stalin reacting to the situation? He probably has mixed emotions. On one hand its a perfect tenet of socialism that the imperialist nations of Britain and France should fall out. On the other Hitler and Germany is to be feared and if the French and British are not in step it seems unlikely either will be able to stand up to a re-armed Germany in the long term, say 10 years time. Stalin shall have to get his house in order before then so the purges likely occur when they did in OTL.
 
I agree with Earling.

The most likley is that Hitler would ask UK and Italy to allow the population of the Rhineland to vote on this matter, this would allow the French to save face?

The vote on the Rhineland would be a fore gone concusition for Hitler and would be seen by the UK as settling the matter, thus Germany gains control of the Rhineland along with a navel agreement with the UK.

Just an idea :)
 
With the Rhineland being the Big Story, Then Ethiopia became a below the Fold. this means Italy doesn't get forced into the Germany Orbit.
Italy remains more engaged in Europe, Especially Italy retains Its position as the Protector of Austria.

Poland Mobilized 8 Divisions, with Problems. The Polish Military would be looking at the problems, and coming up with Solutions.
Poland will also look at Germany's use of Motorized Troops.
Maybe licensing/Buying Armored Vehicles from several other Countries.

Belguim may have been keeping silent publicly, but I bet behind the scenes, They are arguing violently over what to do.
OTL both Belguim and Denmark bought dozens of Swedish Lynx Armored Cars, in early 1940.
OTL the invasions happened before they could be delivered. ITTL the purchases may happen eariler, and more bought.
This would have Butterflies in Sweden as well as the Countries that buy the Cars.

The US will be sitting back and being glad that none of this affects them. Except for increasing Americas feelings of Isolation.
 
It is still my belief that if Hitler was forced to backdown on the Rhineland his government would be toppled. In 1935 the Nazi's did not have the strangle hold on the German Military and the country. It is Highly likly that a coup would take place. I believe that the logical choice would be the restoration of the Monarch, perhaps putting young Lois Frederick on the THrone. The Emperor's Grandson would have the royal connections with Great Britain and would be a symbol to unit the country. In addition he would perhaps allow deals to be made that would ease the fear of conflicts with Poland or Czechoslovkia.
 
One of the first butteflies: when the spanish civil war starts, in july 1936, the germans (with or without Hitler) would probably abstain from helping Franco ITTL. IMO, they will follow the british in their neutrality. Can Franco win without the germans? I'm thinking mainly about german planes (the Legion Condor and the planes given to the nationals).
 
Actually yes, The Italians gave far mor aid and also committed a lot more manpower to The Spanish Civil war. Without the Germans they would probably just have increased their effort, which included torpedoing Soviet Merchant ships bringing war supplies.
 
The French might get involved in the Spanish civil war as well.

Its unlikely that however this incident resolves is going to lead to amity between France and Germany. If relations are increasingly strained between Britain and France then the French government (of all possible variations) is likely to determine they need to be able to go it alone. To do that need a army with modern equipment and modern doctrines. The best way to find out what works is in the field and Spain would offer an excellent testing ground.
 
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