Will we see a Thicc Malta ITTL?
Here's my thinking:
IOTL, the British expressed interest in
Pantelleria,
Lampedusa, and
Linosa.
Pantelleria: "During the Napoleonic Wars, the British considered the possibility of taking over Pantelleria (together with Lampedusa and Linosa) so as to be able to supply
Malta, but a Royal Commission stated in an 1812 report that there would be considerable difficulties in this venture."
Lampedusa: "At the time, the British were considering taking over Lampedusa, possibly as an alternative to Malta, which had just become a British protectorate. In 1803, the Royal Navy dropped the idea since the island's small harbour was not comparable to Malta's larger and well-fortified Grand Harbour. However, reports stated that the island could be useful in supplying Malta, especially with the threat of Sicily falling to the French."
"A Neapolitan warship visited the island in 1841 as a show of force, but nothing changed until 11 September 1843, when two warships arrived and landed 400 soldiers on the island. They substituted the British flags on the island with Neapolitan flags. A royal decree was read out proclaiming the island as part of the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies. A few of the Maltese settlers remained on the island, while others returned to Malta or went to Tunisia."
Linosa: "During the Napoleonic Wars, the British considered the possibility of taking over Linosa (together with Pantelleria and Lampedusa) so as to be able to supply Malta, but a Royal Commission stated in an 1812 report that there would be considerable difficulties in this venture.
The island remained deserted until 1843 when Ferdinand II of the Two Sicilies ordered Knight Bernardo Maria Sanvinsente, captain of frigate, to colonize the island. The first thirty colonists (artisans from Ustica, Agrigento and Pantelleria) with the addition of a major, a priest and a doctor, landed on 25 April 1845."
All quotes from the above linked Wikipedia articles.
So IOTL you already have the British showing interest in the islands, with the British flag flying over Lampedusa until 1843. Linosa is unsettled until 1845. 20 years on from the Napoleonic Wars, it may be deemed easier to use the islands as the aforementioned supply bases. Given the above quotes it seems the British were considering this for at least a decade. Additionally, if the British are looking to supply both sides in this conflict, more islands in the region would be especially useful for them. The reemergent threat of French involvement in Italy might also reignite fears of a French takeover of Sicily. An alternative is that the Two Sicilies might officially recognise the islands as British to guarantee British support in this conflict. I think the chances of an enlarged Malta ITTL are very high, especially as the British flag is already flying over Lampedusa at this point IOTL. If one island (Lampedusa) becomes officially British, the other two almost certainly will too.
Lastly, if you're really looking for a pretty unique AH idea, there's always British
Aeolian Islands for you to consider,
@Sārthākā . These islands are northeast of Sicily and perfectly placed to control the Messina Strait. There's not much on Wikipedia about what's happening there at the time, except maybe this: " With the Bourbons came the introduction of criminal and political prisoners to the islands. In 1916, the penal colony was closed, but the Fascist regime unsuccessfully tried to reopen it in 1926." (Note: I don't know when the Bourbons started to place political prisoners there as it doesn't say). However, the Aeolian Islands together with
Ustica (Black Pearl Island in English) as a supply base could make for an interesting little-seen AH change. It would also fit with Britain staying out but not staying out of the war and be in tune with the British remaining a predominantly naval power.
Northstar