Derek Pullem
Donor
Spain in this will be interesting no doubt. They also have an interest in LouisianaFlorida is still a part of Spain.
Spain in this will be interesting no doubt. They also have an interest in LouisianaFlorida is still a part of Spain.
It depends a little on how the war in Europe ended - by 1823 IOTL France was already back intervening in Spain with almost 100,000 men and by 1830 they were landing 34,000 men in Algeria.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that the French could recognise a Republic of Louisiana. OK the Bourbons are reactionaries at heart but these are Frenchmen fighting against their Anglophone masters. I'd expect some meddling and gun running at least.
I would love to see a Spain that doesn't break down in and of itself this century, not gonna lie here.Spain in this will be interesting no doubt.
Indeed. They do. They are still the hegemon of the Carribbean.Spain in this will be interesting no doubt. They also have an interest in Louisiana
It's way better than otl. No carlist wars and well they are better than otl at least.I would love to see a Spain that doesn't break down in and of itself this century, not gonna lie here.
Thanks!Have just got caught up with this. A thoroughly excellent TL
The world's reaction will probably be "well, it looks like the Americans just can't get their act together. So much for what whole republic thing, eh", or something like that.Any predictions on Louisiana and the world's reaction?
I think the Mexican will provide help "whether Louisiana wants it or not"Any predictions on Louisiana and the world's reaction?
The situation in Louisiana is precarious. I not sure what the population of the former French colony would be and how that breakdown in terms of French and English speakers.
The federal government which in this case is the southern states would in normal circumstances be able to easily defeat the rebels but we dealing anything but normal. The bulk if not all the federal troops are fighting the northern states.
So if things are a stalemate then the French have a chance. But it depends on several things.
1) what if the English speaking people in Louisiana will they rebel and how successful will they be
2) does Louisiana close the river to the Americans, that will hurt them and what happens to the people who rely on trade along the River?
3) federal navy now has to fight another front this time in the Gulf. Do they have the capacity to blockade port? But any deployment of ships to new Orleans will weaken them in the Atlantic.
4) does the northern states recognize Louisiana? It makes sense.
5) the Federalist government will be seeking revenge and not negotiate but how do the average American feel? Another bunch of states have just rebelled.
6) does state of Mississippi and Alabama call out their militia and attack or are the bulk of their troops in north fighting?
World reaction
UK - will support them clandestine at first and could be drawn in to the fighting if American ships fire upon British ships sailing to New Orleans to deliver or pickup British goods from the Great Lakes. They prefer several smaller states than a single state.
Spain - they be interested in supporting them clandestinely at first due to their worry about American designs on Florida.
France - will also support them for simple reason it would re-establish a French presence in a North America.
Mexico - same as Spain for they see French Louisiana as less threatening than US.
Rest of world will sit out but would trade with either party.
It depends a little on how the war in Europe ended - by 1823 IOTL France was already back intervening in Spain with almost 100,000 men and by 1830 they were landing 34,000 men in Algeria.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that the French could recognise a Republic of Louisiana. OK the Bourbons are reactionaries at heart but these are Frenchmen fighting against their Anglophone masters. I'd expect some meddling and gun running at least.
Well yes but also no. I do agree that there isn't enough people, let alone French speaking people to effectively claim the Louisiana Purchase territory, but I dunno if enough Angelo's migrated into the core lands, that being Louisiana, and maybe Arkansas and Missouri, to say that a French-Louisianan separatist movement wouldn't be feasible.The population of the Francophones is to small. I fear this timeline is becoming balkanization just for the sake of balkanization.
mexico is mainly doing it to weaken the usa. Not for land.I think the Mexican will provide help "whether Louisiana wants it or not"
If the Mexicans get involved and threaten to absorb Louisiana then the French and the Spanish are likely to recognise Louisiana and supply weapons at the very least
Which will probably drag Spain in directly when some Southern Unionist troops decide to take out a reprisal raid on Florida
The British are being given the prospect of a large bribe by Louisiana in the shape of the rest of the Louisiana purchase that Louisiana doesn't want. Of course Mexico may also be interested as they effectively inherited Spain's interest in the region
So potential for extreme multi-sided unpleasantness in the back of beyond is high (haven't even started talking about Native Americans either)
Please tell me Napoleon I is still healthy and living on Elba - it would be epic!
until 1840 or so, the Francophones remained the majority in Louisiana, and until the late 1850s remained a strong plurality. With less immigration to america, the French are the overwhelming majority in the Louisianan area.The situation in Louisiana is precarious. I not sure what the population of the former French colony would be and how that breakdown in terms of French and English speakers.
some good predictions..........So if things are a stalemate then the French have a chance. But it depends on several things.
1) what if the English speaking people in Louisiana will they rebel and how successful will they be
2) does Louisiana close the river to the Americans, that will hurt them and what happens to the people who rely on trade along the River?
3) federal navy now has to fight another front this time in the Gulf. Do they have the capacity to blockade port? But any deployment of ships to new Orleans will weaken them in the Atlantic.
4) does the northern states recognize Louisiana? It makes sense.
5) the Federalist government will be seeking revenge and not negotiate but how do the average American feel? Another bunch of states have just rebelled.
6) does state of Mississippi and Alabama call out their militia and attack or are the bulk of their troops in north fighting?
again a good set of predictions.....World reaction
UK - will support them clandestine at first and could be drawn in to the fighting if American ships fire upon British ships sailing to New Orleans to deliver or pickup British goods from the Great Lakes. They prefer several smaller states than a single state.
Spain - they be interested in supporting them clandestinely at first due to their worry about American designs on Florida.
France - will also support them for simple reason it would re-establish a French presence in a North America.
Mexico - same as Spain for they see French Louisiana as less threatening than US.
Rest of world will sit out but would trade with either party.
the anglophone pop of Louisiana during this time was around 15% and hispanic was around 5%. Though yes, the Anglophones will remain a problem.......Louisiana had a fairly small population at this time, at least for it's massive size. If they do acquire independence, they're not going to get all of that land, it's far too valuable. Maybe Britain will snap up everything north of the River Platte or so? I would guess more reasonable, but still generous, borders would be all of the OTL states of Louisiana, Arkansaw, and Missouri, plus some of the lands west of that being split with Mexico.
I think the key factor is here is the reaction of the anglophone population of the region. If they rise up, I don't think the realm would be stable enough to survive. But if they go along with this, then I imagine the Republic could survive. America is in the midst of a civil war, will either side want to expose themselves to go out west to attack them? I don't think so.
My guess is immediate British recognition. The Mississippi River is one of the most important and useful river systems on the planet. If they can get a friendly government along it's banks, the trade potential for their North American colonies would be limitless. But more importantly it screws their biggest rival in the region out of it. Mexico would also have a vested interest in keeping this land out of American hands. But I don't think like others that she could annex this land. Remember, Mexico had only a weak grip on her northernmost OTL territories. Mexico's core is around Mexico city, she would be massively overstretching herself to try and annex and garrison Louisiana.