I think the best comparison is Texas - there are considerably more Frenchmen in Louisiana in 1825 than there were Anglophone settlers in Texas in 1837.
There are several differences between Quebec (Lower Canada), Texas and French Louisiana.
In case of Lower Canada and Upper Canadá it was not so much a rebellion against Britain like in Texas against Mexico but a rebellion against the way the political and economic elites had taken over the two colonies and were governing them.
The Texas rebellion was about the refusal of English speaking settlers to bow to a Mexican government whom they saw as corrupt not against their own local government since they actually had a lot of autonomy and were for most past left alone. The other major factor was that American settlers population in Texas was considerable larger compared to Spanish population (as a % of the total population) this is not the case in lower Canada or in French Louisiana ittl where the French were majority.
If the Mexican government had the ability to send thousands of Spanish settlers to Texas it would of made the American revolt there more difficult as such they had an advantage that American settlers in French Louisiana do not have.
French Louisiana in 1820s was a crossroads. Another 10 years and the French would be a minority and their influence and power slowly diminish. The time period is actually the last possible time the revolt could happen. If the Americans now faced with two wars fail then their independence is guaranteed. The Americans will pay little attention to Louisiana for the most important goal is subdue the north. The feeling in US would be that once north is subdued then Louisiana will fall the might of the US.
Strategically the only thing I see the US government doing is blockading New Orleans. The problem with that is that it will lead o war with French and British who will not take kindly at American interfere in their right to go where they want.
FYI I do think that border states will raise new militias to first protect themselves since they can’t rely of federal government and then some hot head will attack French Louisiana.