The requirements for an independent post-WWI Poland

Maur

Banned
no - if poland does what it does in 1918-21, if it is not true democratic from the beginning, so nationalistic and most important do not act sane in the german border cases (danzig, upper slesia, some real stuff about the corridor)...
Completely untrue. Poland was as democratic in the beginning as, say, France. And ultra-nationalists actually resorted to political murder, because, well, the first elected president was sort of socialist.

but poland being hostile to germany and minorities is doomed.
only asbish events avoid that poland is destroyed by russia and nazi-germany... even without germany poland is doomed.
German (and Silesian) minority in Poland wasn't mistreated at all. And nobody gave a fuck about Jews (your previous remark about Germany welcoming fleeing persecuted Polish Jews was really hilarious :D) and Ukrainians.

Soviet Russia isn't going to do anything, because it's not going to be appeased, unlike Nazi Germany.
 

Maur

Banned
The loss of the Kresy will hurt, but Poland will remain independent - as long as Stalin doesn't go for full annexation/puppetization (not unlikely - IOTL he actually had the Polish Communist Party dissolved, which doesn't seem like the actions of someone who is considering to rule Poland directly),
I'm not sure - iirc, it could be as well the opposite, Polish communist being too-independence minded. Didn't he recreate it with his own people afterwards?
 
Well - if you look from the polish pov, maybe you can answer some questions:
a.) if near germany
why should germany give up upper slesia or the corridor (as a direct land connection to east prussia) and danzig?
that is the price poland has to pay for an alliance with germany...
Oh, there is no reason for it to absolutely, inevitably renounce those demands! I never claimed that. I am merely stating what is needed for Poland to retain independence - this is what the thread is about.
And as for upper Silesia - it is extremely useful for Poland, but not actually necessary for Polish independence.
do you really think germany will give up anything that is - from their pov - rightfull german and still ally with poland? sound stupid - is germany stupid?
Is it stupid to allow a neighbor to keep ethnically non-German areas which are not necessary for Germany's survival and co-exist with that neighbor on equal terms?
b.) if near russia
we speak about stalins russia, the same that created a war at will with finland, that dictated the finns how they decide things (short way - as long as the finns did what russia wanted it was independent, if finnland do something russia don´t like finnland is gone), that take over the baltic states and tried to change em into russian areas?
What happens depends upon what Russia/the USSR wants. But I think there is a distinct possibility it may find it profitable to do so. A situation might arise where the USSR might find a Poland free of German influence to be better then some farmland with a restive population. Poland's scope for a foreign policy within the constraints required to keep Russia friendly would be severely limited, but then only the USA during its brief period of atomic monopoly could have done anything it wanted. It isn't clear-cut where independence does actually end - but it doesn't have to mean freedom to do whatever you want.
also - why is romania the only ally to poland if they ally with germany?
True, the UK and France aren't going to like Russians expanding all over the place, especially in a situation where Poland is the Anglo-French chosen bastion in the east (for example in a scenario where the Allies helped Poland in 1939, preventing its conquest; the presence of these two powers backing Poland would be a deterrent for Stalin - an example of a scenario where Poland doesn't gravitate towards either Russia or Germany, but survives. And after passing this 1939/1940 bottleneck, Poland's prospects for continued survival might be relatively good). If Poland is perceived as a German client, the probability of such intervention decreases - although even some thinly veiled threats on their own may have also deterred Stalin from taking on the capitalist world which appears to present a united front. The crux of this scenario is Germany at least accepting losses to Poland which allow the latter to remain independent. If the German leaders do genuinely believe a strong Poland is a useful buffer and even offer some help, or do not care, it could work. If Germany and the USSR turn revisionist together, Polish independence is close to being a lost cause.
that isn´t logic, also, is uka nd france suddendly a friend of communists?
They did seriously consider co-operation - witness the attempts at an "eastern pact" IOTL.
sure - if you ask how could poland avoid beeing attacked by nazi germany, i agree totally. Rolling over and kneel before russia will help... but this is not something i call independent.
Nazi Germany is not the only form of Germany which may attack Poland.
The 'Russians' were disliked much more then Germans after the Polish-Soviet war by most Poles. During that period, Poland would be much more inclined to submit to/co-operate with Germany then the hated communists - provided both issue demands the Poles judge as comparable and they have choice in the matter. I think I left some points in my earlier post unclear. If you put National Democrats in charge of 1918 Poland - not far-fetched - you are likely to get co-operation with, and finlandization by, Russia - which, however, doesn't even have to be communist with such a divergence. But with post-1920 PoDs, Russia will be less popular, and close co-operation with it far less likely then with Germany.
also, if poland is partner of russia it loose any connection to france or uk... these nations suddenly need a strong germany (as a puffer to communism)...ask what will happen to poland in such a conflict...
Something similar could be said about Poland allying itself with Germany: if it is a German client, why should we lift a finger to help it? Poland adopting either of these strategies a priori would undermine its position - trying to steer an independent course had its own problems, but allowed more maneouverability.
for poland it doesn´t matter if the nazis start a war or if communism and capitalism clash in poland for the battle...
poland cannot win in such a scenario
and in the follow up war poland is the main area of war... i doubt that it matter if the million killed poles die because nazis attack or because the war "good against evil" needed it (you can ask yourself who is "good" and who is "evil"... just think about the korean war... :eek:
A major war definitely means tragedy.
also, actually the polish people fought with the central powers against russia... this should give you some advice how much poles liked the russians...
The majority did not, at the time of WWI, seem to have cared for either Russia or CP. In the former Congress Poland, the Central Powers hoped to raise enough volunteers for five divisions, but barely 3000 showed up.
just think about how stalin made vasalls out of the eastern european countries... how will you change this?
if poland is good friend with russia AND took otl (or more?) from germany, germany will be deadly enemy forever... this could be hold back for 10 years, 20 years, maybe 30 years... but if russia start to make vasalls, do you think germany will help poland? No
will germany allow france and uk to move through german areas to help poland? no - peacefull but no. So germany, not doing something illegal just let poland rot in (communist) hell... revenge is best served cold.
Concerning post-1920 PoDs:
Poland's situation as a pseudo-Finland is indeed precarious - I never said otherwise. My line of reasoning is as follows: if this sort of situation actually develops, it must mean Russia prefers a more or less independent Poland outside Germany's influence then the alternative, which requires some kind of Russo-German "cold war". Thus if Poland's independence is in danger of being compromised, it has a chance of defecting to Germany, or may at least use the threat of doing so. If the 'cold war' ends, or Germany refuses to accept even a submissive Poland, then too bad for Poland. But in all likelihood if it was desperate enough to seek Soviet help, it must have meant Germany's offer was worse. And even an extra decade of independence can make Poland and its people much better off.
also - how long should poland survive independent?
Obviously the more time passes, the more unpredictable things become, especially in such a volatile region. Magnificate, have you got any specific timeframe in mind?
you really should explain why this happen and how you want to handle the near automatic "take over"try by russia 10-30 years later...
you know, some socialist groups ask russia for help.. why should mother russia not support these poor guys, mistreated by the "evil" polish government? nah, this is "best russian style"
so you fail to let poland survive til today. you save poland the war of 1939-45, but i doubt that the communists will stay peaceful in europe...
It is entirely possible that even if Poland saves itself about 1940, a later crisis in, say, 1960, will prove insurmountable. Or it may not. But don't underestimate the value of even an additional decade of FREEDOM!
And a lot may change over several years, in ways difficult to predict. If Stalin waits too long with his putative Great Conquest of Europe, he may find Poland having ended up under somebody's nuclear umbrella, for instance...
 
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