The republicans wins the spanish civil war = Portugal join the allies?

[Gukpard]

For context, in 1926 the portuguese republic was crumbling and a military coup happened, in 1933 there was a referendum that reformed Portugal into a far right catholic state built in 19th century nostalgia under the dictator Oliveira Salazar. He helped Franco in the civil war with militias and equipment and remained neutral on the European front of WWII (alltough he leased the azores for the allies to facilitate their lines on the atlantic). Portugal did fought against Japan however after Japan occupied Timor.

Well, let's say that even with all the help they had OTL, some Leader figure rises on the spanish republic that manage to control the infighting and the republicans wins. We know that the spanish republic only became a communist dictatorship at the very last week of the civil war, but the republic was in general a coalition of left and far left parties, so they unify spain and adopt a very anti clerical and socialist stance, not going into communism or becaming a dictatorship, but turning into the exact opost of what Franco and Salazar wanted.

Salazar was a anglophile, could this hostile Spain at his back door move him to sign a treaty with the UK garanteering the independence of Portugal in exange for Portugal joining the allies in WWII?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Several points I need to clarify there. One was the level of hostility to Portugal among Francos coalition. I know there was a faction that favored 'settling the Portuguese situation'. Tho others including Franco were less interested. The Spanish army did prepare a staff study, and did some planning for invading Portugal. Tho its not clear if that were just a routine examination or serious planning.

Next there a question of just how much Catholic restoration there was under Salazars government. The Republics actions against the Church had been both radical, and relatively unopposed by the citizens. When I visited there in 2006 it did not look like much restoration. Not many Portuguese were going to Mass or Confession that I saw. My friends there made the same observation. Perhaps there was a lot of change in 70 years?

Salazar was aware of the hostility from a faction of the Spanish leadership. Any danger from the Spanish or Germans would have led to the government evacuating to the Azores & activating the old treaty with the UK. A look at that treaty, which had been activated in the Great War, and the ongoing discussions/negotiations with the Brits from 1939 are important to your question.

Lisbon: War in the Shadows of the City of Light, 1939-1945: Neill. is a quick primer on the conditions and politics of Portugal during the war. Whatever the Catholicism of the Portuguese in this era they did not have a lot of heartburn over the hundreds of thousands of Jewish, Protestant, and Orthodox refugees that landed there.

One final point. The US had a old staff study or war plan for seizing Atlantic islands for naval bases. That started as War Plan Grey & occupying islands on the Atlantic side of the Carrabean, then eventually extended to the Azores & possibly the Spanish islands. The establishment of Amphibious Forces Atlantic Fleet in the winter of 1940-41 enabled the US to execute such plans. As with the nuetral US occupation of Iceland in June 1941 acting as a surrogate for the Brits was possible. Were the Portuguese government force to flee to the Azores the US could have also landed the Marines, and possibly declared the Atlantic Exclusion or Nuetral Zone extended there. Another challenge to the Axis.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Salazar would be very alarmed by Republican victory. He might approach Britain and France for a security pledge. It would matter when the Republic wins. IMO that would have to be in the opening stages of the war, i.e. 1936-1937.

If there is no effect on the run-up to WW II... Spain as an ally of the USSR has interesting tie-ins with the Hitler-Stalin Pact. Would Spain declare war on Germany? They have a grudge against Germany, but they haven't much love for France, and the Communists in the government will be under orders from Moscow to keep Spain neutral.

If Spain is neutral... Red Spain might see the fall of France and defeat of Britain as an opportunity to overthrow the reactionary Salazar regime. Britain couldn't do anything about it then. This would add to the perception of "Reds" as aggressors like the Nazis. The Salazar regime might flee to the Azores. They might invite Britain to move in, which would certainly help in the Battle of the Atlantic. However, Spain, or a Red satellite regime installed in Lisbon, could object, and maybe threaten Gibraltar.

 

[Gukpard]

If Spain is neutral... Red Spain might see the fall of France and defeat of Britain as an opportunity to overthrow the reactionary Salazar regime. Britain couldn't do anything about it then. This would add to the perception of "Reds" as aggressors like the Nazis. The Salazar regime might flee to the Azores. They might invite Britain to move in, which would certainly help in the Battle of the Atlantic. However, Spain, or a Red satellite regime installed in Lisbon, could object, and maybe threaten Gibraltar.

There are things britain can do to protect Portugal. Due Portugal lack of population in comparation to Spain they are a way higher militarized nation, they had the normal army, the Republican guard and the portuguese youth that was like the boy scouts but militarized so this might allow them to hold position until the british can mediate a peace deal. Furthermore Republican spain was devastated by the war at this point so even if they have a large army, it might be very difficult to send a sizeable force of it against Portugal, even more since most of the army sized with Franco and so the republican army would be composed of former militiaman and recently promoted officers.

Next there a question of just how much Catholic restoration there was under Salazars government. The Republics actions against the Church had been both radical, and relatively unopposed by the citizens. When I visited there in 2006 it did not look like much restoration. Not many Portuguese were going to Mass or Confession that I saw. My friends there made the same observation. Perhaps there was a lot of change in 70 years?

Since the church was higly supportive of Salazar dictatorship, after the carnation revolution in 1974 there was a erosion of christianity in Portugal. The church today is influent, but only a tiny shadow of what have been before.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Was Spain in any condition to invade anyone following the war?

From what I understand there was all sorts of social and economical problems and the country took quite some time to get over it.

Mind you with some of the lunatics involved during the latter stages of the war OTL (who were more interested in purging POUM than fighting the Nationalists) are in charge then I can see a great deal of crazy going on and would not put a poorly executed invasion of Portugal, against all common sense, past them.

 

[Michele]

I seem to remember that technically, Portugal was already allied with Britain.

That said, just because the Republicans won, and Portugal is a rightist catholic authoritarian state, that's no good reason for a war, in itself.

Keep in mind that a Republican victory is unlikely, and if it happens then Spain will be in a very bad shape. The Canary Islands and Spanish North Africa are probably still in the hands of the Nationalists, claiming to be the legitimate government in exile, and even in Spain proper there will be areas teeming with desperate right-wing guerrillas. The Communists and the Anarchists may have remained united and may be both in the government with the Socialists, but they'll still dislike (euphemism) and distrust each other. Catalans and Basques won't be too keen on a foreign crusade, all the more so since it has to be under a centralized control from Madrid; the anarchists will agree. If such a crusade really has to be waged, it will be to retake the Canarias and/or Spanish Morocco from the die-hard Nationalists.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Keep in mind that a Republican victory is unlikely, and if it happens then Spain will be in a very bad shape. The Canary Islands and Spanish North Africa are probably still in the hands of the Nationalists, claiming to be the legitimate government in exile...

A nationalist refugee regime can hardly claim to be the legitimate government when the actual "legitimate government" is sitting in Madrid, recognized by all nations, as it has been all along.

(Aside from Germany and Italy, I don't think any country broke relations with the Republic.)

While Nationalists might try to hold out in Spain's overseas possessions, that would be an iffy proposition. Spanish Morocco is within easy range of mainland Spain. Ifni, Rio de Oro, and the Canaries are further off. But Spain might request passage for Spanish troops to reach the first two. Since this would be the "lawful government" reclaiming control from rebels, France might grant passage. I doubt if the Canaries would hold out after that.

... and even in Spain proper there will be areas teeming with desperate right-wing guerrillas.

Which would be a strong incentive for Spain to eliminate what would be the source of external support for such guerrillas. Portuguese involvement with such activities could also provide a casus belli.

One supposes there was a suppressed "Red" movement in Portugal, and Red exiles in Red Spain.They could be the nucleus of an expedition.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

A Republican Spain has the same problem as Francoist Spain vis getting crossways with Britain. Imports cease, and Germany cant make up the difference in food, and has no inclination to in this case. The Republic has no effective Allies, no succor, no bread or fuel, and rapidly no support of the population. The Republic may still stand, but the 'government' would be replaced by one that will negotiate a settlement with Britain and Portugal. "Sorry. We did not mean for it to go this far. It was the fault of those guys over there, the dead ones by the wall. Now can we have more bread & soup?"

 

[BeardedHoplite]

I could see a Republican Spain being a catalyst for Portugal cuddling up to Germany, honestly. There would be antipathy between the Iberian nations once the war is over, but nothing that would lead to a war. However, assuming WWII unfolds as OTL and France falls, Germany is unlikely to want a Red Spain on it's southern frontier and I could honestly see the Balkan campaign of 1940 being replaced by a Spanish campaign

Despite the Pyrrennes, I can see Spain falling in a few months, being weakened by the civil war. Portugal, now bordered by Germany, might move towards them to guarantee their security.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I seem to remember that technically, Portugal was already allied with Britain. ...

The Aliança Luso-Britânica, also known in Portugal as Aliança Inglesa, "English Alliance, ratified as the Treaty of Windsor in 1386 may be the oldest alliance in the world that is still in force.

From Wiki: It was reinforced throughout history, including in 1386, 1643, 1654, 1660, 1661, 1703, 1815 and by a secret declaration in 1899. It was recognized in the Treaties of Arbitration in the 20th century between Britain and Portugal in 1904 and 1914.[3]

The original treaty is in Latin. Heres a translation of the key passage:

t]here shall be between the respective kings and their successors, their realms, lands, dominions, provinces, vassals, and subjects whomsoever, faithfully obeying, true, faithful, constant, mutual, and perpetual friendships [Amicitae], unions [Adunationes], alliances [Alligantiae], and leagues of sincere affection [purae Dilectionis foedera]; and that, as true and faithful princes, they shall henceforth reciprocally be friends to friends and enemies to enemies, and shall assist, maintain, and uphold each other mutually, by sea and by land, against all men that may live or die of whatever degree, station, rank, or condition they may be, and against their lands, realms, and dominions.

The last time the treaty was invoked, by Britain was during the 1982 Falklands War. Hitler declared most treaties he encountered a scrap of paper & violated them at will. Much like several prominent politicians these days. His 'Reich' lasted all of twelve years. Portugal and Britain honor a 646 year old treaty as a policy guide & those nations have survived much better. Draw your own conclusions.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

I could see a Republican Spain being a catalyst for Portugal cuddling up to Germany, honestly. There would be antipathy between the Iberian nations once the war is over, but nothing that would lead to a war. However, assuming WWII unfolds as OTL and France falls, Germany is unlikely to want a Red Spain on it's southern frontier and I could honestly see the Balkan campaign of 1940 being replaced by a Spanish campaign.

Perhaps. But until BARBAROSSA starts, Red Spain may be cooperative with Germany (by direction from Moscow). ("May"; the Communists won't control Spain, and there would be a standing grudge against Germany for its support of the rebels.)

However, Red Spain will at least be very friendly to the USSR, and I think Stalin would object to a German invasion.

(I call it "Red Spain" because it would be dominated by a mixture of Communists, Socialists, and other far-left parties, all of which considered themselves "Reds".)