The Republicans win the Spanish Civil War

[BlairWitch749]

Direct intervention in that manner by Italy or Germany of an actual war against Spain would have brought Britain and France in and started a 'WWII' rather early - that was what the Non-Intervention Pact was about, after all.

I don't know if that's true

France and Britain were not in war mode in 1936; and they were quite content to let Benny and Adolf have a long leash in this period

Italy would have to be the prime mover anyway, since the Germany army was tiny in 1936

so maybe the republicans sink or damage german and italian vessels; benny declares war; germany offers a division plus aircraft to fight? that is all he could spare anyway; france didn't feel the need to intervene with 2 Italian corps in Spain IRL

 

[Johnrankins]

Indeed. I would like to see how a 1936 WW or more limited war would take place. I would think for one Nazi Germany would be a lot more fragile economically and militarily and for another it would have all sorts of butterflies. I suspect also that if the UK and Empire got involved in the war they would not have time or effort to pass the abdication legislation...

If they go to war with France and GB than the war ends in 1937 at the latest. Germany and Italy was in no way able to pull that off in 1936.

 

[Johnrankins]

I don't know if that's true

France and Britain were not in war mode in 1936; and they were quite content to let Benny and Adolf have a long leash in this period

Italy would have to be the prime mover anyway, since the Germany army was tiny in 1936

so maybe the republicans sink or damage german and italian vessels; benny declares war; germany offers a division plus aircraft to fight? that is all he could spare anyway; france didn't feel the need to intervene with 2 Italian corps in Spain IRL

Germany and Italy were even in less shape to go to war.

 

[deathscompanion1]

The Germans could lie through their teeth and say their ships were on exercises and the spanish attacked them would the British go to war on account of a few spanish COMMUNISTS who attacked first hmm if anything it will allow hitler to get away with more by saying germany needs a real military now that it is at war.

 

[BlairWitch749]

The Germans could lie through their teeth and say their ships were on exercises and the spanish attacked them would the British go to war on account of a few spanish COMMUNISTS who attacked first hmm if anything it will allow hitler to get away with more by saying germany needs a real military now that it is at war.

given churchill and other establishment figure's opinion of the republic

no

 

[Serenissima]

I meant in the event of a direct Germany/Italy vs Spain war, rather than just that pure incident with the Republican navy.

 

[deathscompanion1]

Why would Germany and Italy fight a war for no reason the only thing they want is experience of modern war so they send support to spain to see how things go.

 

[Johnrankins]

I meant in the event of a direct Germany/Italy vs Spain war, rather than just that pure incident with the Republican navy.

The problem is that they can't resupply without going through Italy or by sea. The relatively small time stuff they pulled is one thing but they are vulnerable to a RN blockade in a full fledged war. If they push too hard there is a good chance that GB will do that. If that happens they are screwed.

 

[Serenissima]

The problem is that they can't resupply without going through Italy or by sea. The relatively small time stuff they pulled is one thing but they are vulnerable to a RN blockade in a full fledged war. If they push too hard there is a good chance that GB will do that. If that happens they are screwed.

Well, yes, exactly. A direct breach of the Non-Intervention Pact in terms of directly and officially waging war would draw Britain and France to war against Germany and/or Italy.

 

[deathscompanion1]

so in short things pretty much happen as OTL unless for no reason at all the germans start a pointless war or the republicans do.

 

[The Ubbergeek]

You know, as pointed maybe, if the far-left won in this case, they may not help Staline so much - like Franco was indeed 'ingrate'. Specially with the many ideological cleavages in this mess... I'd expect Red Spain to be actually maybe the first 'deviant' communist state, predating Yugoslavia.

Beside, USSR is FAR.

 

[Johnrankins]

so in short things pretty much happen as OTL unless for no reason at all the germans start a pointless war or the republicans do.

Unless you are a Spainard in which case things change quite a bit.

 

[Henriksson]

The republicans get to experience a violent axis invasion; in 1940 if they are unaligned, in 1941 is they are overt allies of stalin

either way; the germans break through in the basque country, take bilboa, and establish convoys from la rochelle under fighter cover to ease the strain of sending everything through the mountains

after that the campaign is over, the front is simply too wide and the germans will encircle any force that stops to fight or run them off into the sea or internment in portugal

You make it sound so easy...

 

[Johnrankins]

You make it sound so easy...

A LOT easier than it would be.

 

[DCC]

They wouldn't back Nazi Germany even with the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, given their ideological opposition. They wouldn't be solely an outpost of the USSR even with a mainly USSR-funded Republican victory.

They would if a "Moscow Line" Party was in charge. A fair amount of people took that seriously in the 30s. Though--just like the USSR, they wouldn't declare on the Allies; just be non-hostile to Germany.

Then come Barbarossa, Germany has to deploy some forces to contain Spain. Butterflies ensue, most likely making things worse for the Axis.

 

[deathscompanion1]

well if you havent noticed the germans had a talent for storming mountionous and wooded terrain e.g. Ardennes, Mount olympus and southern front in the USSR.

 

[tchizek]

well if you havent noticed the germans had a talent for storming mountionous and wooded terrain e.g. Ardennes, Mount olympus and southern front in the USSR.

Well they didn't exactly storm through the Ardennes, think the huge ugly traffic jam more than storming through. A French Battalion or two with AT weapons in the right spot would have put a huge crimp in the German attack through there. Southern Front in the USSR had many choices for paths, while Spain has very limited passes. Think about the last major invasion of Spain and what happened to them (original Guerrilla war...).

Tom.

 

[Cook]

Direct intervention in that manner by Italy or Germany of an actual war against Spain would have brought Britain and France in...

No it would not. Absolutely nothing would have brought the British into the Spanish Civil War. No provocation whatsoever would make Baldwin or Chamberlain willing to involve Britain in what they saw as the Sarajevo of the 1930s. German warships firing on British flagged freighters entering Basque ports and even an Italian submarine torpedoing a Royal Navy destroyer only strengthened British resolve to keep out of the fighting, and without British involvement the French weren’t willing to do anything.

In late 1938, when the fighting entered Catalonia, the French consulted their British allies prior to sending forces across the border to prevent fascist forces from approaching the French border. Daladier discovered that as far as Chamberlain was concerned, what was good for the Czech Goose was good for the French Gander as well; Chamberlain informed Daladier that if the Germans and Italians were provoked into attacking France by such an action, Britain would not come to the aid of France. The Chamberlain was willing to abandon Britain’s ally rather than fight another war under such circumstances and was exercising veto of action the French considered vital to their national security. As a result the French plan to intervene in Catalonia was dropped.

In September 1939, when the Germans invaded Poland, Daladier waited until after he had Britain’s declaration of war on Germany confirmed before he was willing to issue a French declaration of war; such was the French fear of being left in the lurch by the British.

A direct breach of the Non-Intervention Pact in terms of directly and officially waging war would draw Britain and France to war against Germany and/or Italy.

The Germans and Italians did intervene directly in the war with no response from Britain and France. There would not have been an official declaration of war; the only declaration of war Hitler ever made was against the United States.

Why would Germany and Italy fight a war for no reason the only thing they want is experience of modern war so they send support to spain to see how things go.

Hitler and Mussolini supported Franco for ideological grounds; the global struggle against International Communism. For the Italians there was also the hope of martial glory.

German and Italian support was critical right from the start, when it was an attempted Coup, not a Civil War. The experience their military gained in the following years was only as a consequence of the coup’s failure, it was not planned.

 

[Serenissima]

No it would not. Absolutely nothing would have brought the British into the Spanish Civil War.

I can't really agree on that one. A full-scale (attempted) German or Italian invasion of Spain (supporting the Nationalists), in direct breach of the Non-Intervention Pact which was intended to prevent that? To a certain degree, it's comparing apples and oranges to say that they wouldn't have gotten involved; direct military action on land by Britain would probably not even have resulted, just naval operations.

The backlash against dishonouring treaties is likely to be even larger than the backlash against giving up on Czechoslovakia in 1938, given the levels of popular support among the majority working class and intelligentsia for the Republic. Even if neither Baldwin nor Chamberlain gets involved themselves, it seems fairly likely that the National Government would have fallen apart and been reconstituted. Remember, also, that they had presented themselves as the government of honouring treaties and preserving international law in the last election, though with the example of Italy and Abyssinia being in mind in 1935.

It must also be noted that the basis of Chamberlain's 1938 actions was to 'avoid war', at least publicly; it does not square with his 'policy' to ignore it when another nation actively starts one. It seems a bit silly to assume that he'll steer an exactly identical course even with significantly different events occurring, especially with the likelihood of a two-front war (German armies in a conquered Spain and Germany itself in the oncoming war). Personally, I don't believe he would have been stupid enough to allow the National Government to fall down and trigger another election which could only go poorly for his own party. Reluctantly, to be certain, but in the case of a direct invasion of Spain, WWII is likely to start three years early.

 

[Cook]

It seems a bit silly to assume that he'll steer an exactly identical course even with significantly different events occurring...

Your argument is completely nonsensical; you initially argue that German and Italian violations of the Non-Intervention Pact would be certain to result in the British becoming involved, and then try to argue that we cannot be certain how the British would react to a given set of circumstances. In fact we can be certain that direct and extensive German and Italian involvement would not result in British intervention, because not only was that the British government’s policy, but that is exactly what happened when to two fascist powers did indeed violate the Non-intervention agreement.

The Germans and Italians were fully involved in the Spanish Civil War from its earliest days. The German and Italian diplomatic delegations had been briefed by the conspirators of their plans prior to the uprising and when things went wrong and the Coup failed to topple the government, it was German and Italian involvement that saved the rebellion. It was Luftwaffe and Regia Aeronatica transport planes that flew the Army of Africa from Morocco to Spain when the rebels failed to secure the support of the Spanish navy and it was Kriegsmarine warships that escorted the transport ships carrying the rebel’s heavy weapons across the Straits.

The Non-intervention Pact was intended by the British purely to prevent the spread of war beyond Spain into wider Europe. There were no specified terms for military enforcement against the Germans and Italians; that would have defeated the entire point of the pact to begin with. When the British approached the Germans with the proposal of a Non-intervention Pact, the German reply was that such a pact was unnecessary because the Germans were not involved in supporting either Spanish side; bare-faced lies came easy to the German Foreign Office even when the honourable Herr Neurath was in charge. When they did finally agree to the Pact, the Germans refused to sign it until the Republicans had handed over a Luftwaffe Junkers 52 that the Republican air force had managed to force to land in the Republican zone; part of the support the Germans weren’t providing to the Nationalists.

The Non-intervention Committee finally convened in London in September, fully three months after the rebellion, and German and Italian support for the rebels, had commenced. It made absolutely no difference because at no time did the Germans and Italians honour the agreement in any way. German warships, part of the Non-intervention squadron tasked with preventing outside involvement in the war, fired on Basque ports and coastal towns repeatedly. The Italian Regia Marina’s surface warships and submarines attacked Republican Spanish and Soviet shipping throughout the Mediterranean.

On 31 August 1937 the Italian submarine Iride launched a torpedo attack on HMS Havock, a destroyer, in international waters between the Spanish coast and the Baleares Isles. The attack missed and the destroyer pursued the Italian submarine with depth charges, neither side sustained significant damage. Rather than a strong diplomatic response, the declared that this attack and the others taking place throughout the Mediterranean, were the result of ‘pirates unknown’. This became something of a running gag; comics on stage in the West End referred to Mussolini as ‘the unknown statesman’. The British response finally came in the form of the Nyon Conference in September 1937, there the fiction of ‘unknown pirates’ was played to the full and anti-submarine patrols were organised throughout the Mediterranean by all the naval powers of the Mediterranean, including the Italians. So in effect the British were asking the Italians to send Italian destroyers to hunt for Italian submarines. It was all a fiction, the Royal Navy had known throughout who was responsible for the attacks. They were just not willing to do anything to offend Mussolini while they were still hoping to use him as a potential buttress against German expansionism.

The British chose to turn a blind eye to the German forces in Spain. These forces, including the Condor Legion and ground forces equipped with Panzers and 88mm Flak guns operated in the dual anti-aircraft/anti-tank role that were so important during the offensives of 1937 and ’38. British policy was Appeasement and Republican Spain was completely expendable.

The backlash against dishonouring treaties is likely to be even larger than the backlash against giving up on Czechoslovakia in 1938, given the levels of popular support among the majority working class and intelligentsia for the Republic. Even if neither Baldwin nor Chamberlain gets involved themselves, it seems fairly likely that the National Government would have fallen apart and been reconstituted.

A completely baseless claim; the Conservatives had a solid 210 seat majority. Even after the debacle of Munich only twenty Conservative members chose to show their displeasure and abstain from a vote of support for the Prime Minister, and that was after Appeasement was already shown to have been a clear failure. In 1936 Appeasment was the height of fashion and apart from a few crazies like Churchill, everyone on the government benches supported it.

Let's assume that there is a considerable argument back and forth in Nazi Germany about whether to intervene. By the time they decide to do so the Spanish Navy already destroyed the transports. Let's further suppose the Republicans really get lucky and win as it wasn't completely impossible. They first destroy the separatists and with the prestige from that are able to destroy the Communists right afterwords. Assume the French and Brits send them arms to help the do this. What happens then?

If regional authorities in more provinces had responded quickly and decisively, fewer provinces would have fallen to the rebels. In that situation Hitler may have concluded that the rebellion was already a failure and declined Franco’s request for assistance. Had he done that the Army of Africa would not have been able to move significant forces to mainland Spain and the remaining Nationalist controlled areas probably would have been mopped up, ending the rebellion.

Had that happened the Popular Front government would have found itself in a rather difficult situation because, although nominally in control, the militias really answered to the various political factions that had organised them. IOTL even the obvious need to work together to defeat Franco was not enough to keep them from fighting each other. With the rebellion defeated, their simmering rivalry would have simply exploded. Right from the start of the rebellion the militias had been shooting anyone they suspected of disloyalty to the republic, often this suspicion consisted of just not being a member of the particular political party that led that militia.

The most powerful of the republican militia forces, by dint of organisation and discipline, were the Communists. At the time Stalin was trying to forge an alliance with the British against Nazi Germany and did not want them fearing the expansion of international communism, he instructed the Spanish Communists to remain loyal to the Popular Front government, not take a direct role in that government, but at the same time work to take over the government’s civil administration and the army. Stalin also gave the Spanish Communists a green light to do everything they could to eliminate the Marxists, whom they labelled Trotskyist-Fascists and every bit as much of a threat to the republic as the Falangists; a civil war between the Communists and the Marxists was inevitable.

That would have put the Marxists in a very difficult situation. Their only source of foreign support was Mexico, and the Mexicans could not supply them with modern arms and equipment. Neither could they supply them with any aircraft.

The Communists by comparison were in a much better position. They were able to obtain arms and supplies from the Soviet Union, including modern fighter aircraft, tanks and artillery. The Communists were also far more disciplined and better organised than the other major republican factions and able to gain military instructors from the Soviet Union and elsewhere.

The inevitable losers were the Anarchists. Although at the start of the rebellion they’d had the numerically largest militia, they refused to take part in the government on ideological grounds and were simply unable to properly organise their forces for the same reason.

The Basques and Catalonians by the way were not separatists; they simply wanted regional autonomy within a decentralised Spain. They’d opposed Franco because he wanted a highly centralised Spain, and one that only permitted the speaking of Spanish (Castilian).

British and French government aid to the Popular Front government, or to any faction following a breakdown and civil war between the various factions can be pretty much ruled out in 1936. The British conservative government had no interest in supporting what it saw as a highly radical, possibly Bolshevik regime. French support is equally unlikely, firstly because the British were opposed to it and the French were terrified of becoming diplomatically isolated. Secondly because although France had a Popular Front government itself, it was an unstable regime (as were all of the Third Republics governments), Prime Minister Leon Blum had only been in office a matter of weeks, that was viewed with suspicion by parts of its own military. Following an initial shipment of arms and supplies to the Spanish government, Blum cancelled further shipments because his senior military commanders warned of a potential rebellion in the French military if they continued.

The most likely result then is a Communist takeover, either with moderate socialist political parties still in government as window-dressing but with no real power, or directly once they’d decided their power was strong enough and they grew too impatient to follow instructions of caution from Moscow.