BlondieBC
Banned
Did not have access to airfields in Spain. Also chose to do Russia instead of Britain first strategy.
The Republicans win the Spanish Civil War
- Thread starter Johnrankins
- Start date
Did not have access to airfields in Spain. Also chose to do Russia instead of Britain first strategy.
The point is if they are going to invade Spain to get the airfields to do so in this scenario why not in OTL?
Exactly, invading Spain to invade Gib would be stupid in the extreme. The cost would be far more than the gain.
Cook
Banned
You mean aside from the fact that IOTL Spain was ruled by a friendly fascist dictatorship that allowed Germany to base U-boats in Cadiz and the Canary Islands, German and Italian shipping to operate in the security of Spanish waters, that was a critical source of the Reich’s Wolfram and whose own military intelligence cooperated fully with the Abwehr?
BlondieBC
Banned
Hitler chose to invade Russia not do a Britain first strategy. Hitler wanted his living space to the east.
Cook
Banned
The consequences of the Republicans winning depends heavily on exactly how they win.
For the Republicans to win requires two key things. The first is that it requires prompt and decisive action by local authorities within the first forty-eight hours of the beginning of the rebellion. Where civil authorities reacted swiftly and armed the militias, the rebellion either collapsed before it got going or was swiftly crushed. Where the civil authorities hesitated or acted indecisively, the Nationalists seized control. The resultant shape of the Nationalist held territory by the end of July 1936 reflected this almost entirely random process.
The second thing required for a Republican win is preventing the transport of the Army of Africa across the Straits of Gibraltar. The Army of Africa (AoA) represented the only reasonably well organised, trained and equipped force in Spain on either side. Unless they are prevented from landing in Spain a swift Nationalist defeat cannot be achieved, and a prolonged war favours the Nationalists.
Since the rebellion almost completely failed in the Spanish navy there is a real possibility of preventing the AoA from reaching Spain. The rebellion in the fleet had been a critical part of Franco’s plan and its failure necessitated a rapid rethink and the direct intervention of the Italians and Germans. Had Rome and Berlin been more cautious at this point the rebellion would have collapsed; the number of troops transported by Nationalist Breguets and Nieuports before the arrival of Italian Savoias and German Junkers was negligible.
On 19 July the Spanish government ordered all available warships to steam to the Straits to prevent the AoA from crossing. They were unsuccessful because the convoy of Nationalist troop transports was escorted by the German pocket Battleships Deuschland and Admiral Scheer. These two ships were, compared to the Spanish fleet, formidable. But there was only the two of them; their successful screening of the troop transports against a numerically superior Republican squadron would have been extremely difficult. This convoy included all of the heavy weapons used by the Nationalists in the first months of the war, so was absolutely critical. Had the Republicans chosen to attack the transports from multiple directions, and focused on the transports, not on the German warships, a great deal could have been achieved. The international repercussions of German warships opening fire on Spanish ships would have also been enormous.
If the rebellion was supressed, the Popular Front government and a democratic Spain is still extremely unlikely to survive. The provinces would have been in the hands of the various militias aligned with the main left wing political parties, or with the Basque and Catalonian provincial regimes; a struggle for power between the various left-wing parties, and between them and the Basques and Catalonians would be inevitable. Even during the Civil War, the threat of defeat and physical extermination by Franco’s forces wasn’t sufficient to prevent in-fighting between the Communists, Marxists and Anarchists; with the Carlists and Fascists defeated, fighting between the left wing elements would have been pretty much inevitable.
Even though Stalin had ordered the Comintern not to take a major role in the Popular Front government and the successive Republican governments, a Communist takeover is the most likely result of a civil war between them, the Marxists, the Anarchists and the regional regimes. Despite Stalin’s orders, the Spanish Communists were a bit too keen for glory and power to put off seizing control in Spain for the greater good internationally. As it was they disregarded the caution of the Comintern and effectively gained control of much of the Republican zone. Stalin was not acting out of altruism by the way; he didn’t want the British government to be alarmed at the possibility of the spread of international communism just when he was trying to forge an alliance with them against Hitler’s Germany.
A Communist takeover in Spain, even in a nominal coalition with other parties would still result in a massive bloodbath similar to that unleashed by Franco’s victorious forces. Not only would there be the (largely fictitious in 1936, it grew later) spectre of the Falangists to quite literally do away with, as well as the Carlists and Monarchists, but there are the provincial separatists and Marxists and Anarchists as well. The NKVD orchestrated purge in the rear areas of the Republican zone during the Civil War would have paled in comparison to what would have been unleashed by a successful Communist takeover.
Depending on when the Communists successfully took over significantly effects events, not only in Spain but also in during the European Crises of 1938 and ’39. An early victory would make the British establishment and the French Right even more paranoid of the spread of international Communism, a later victory just distracts from Hitler’s actions in central Europe. An early victory also deprives the Luftwaffe of a great deal of experience; experience that led to significant changes in German air tactics. A long drawn out and bitterly fought civil war in Spain between the various left wing parties could play completely into Hitler’s hands; distracting attention from his actions and hardening world opinion (i.e. British, French and American opinion) against Stalin.
By 1939 a Spanish Socialist Republic would most likely have a mutual defence pact with the Soviet Union. Even if they didn’t, Russia would still be the most likely source of their armaments. If they have a defence pact with Stalin, this would probably prevent a German invasion in the short term, but would almost guarantee a German invasion co-incident with the invasion of the Soviet Union.
A Spanish army operating in orthodox Soviet doctrine dominated by Soviet Commissars and equipped with old soviet equipment and with its airspace defended by I-15 and I-16s wouldn’t have presented much of an obstacle to the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe. After several years of purges the Spanish people would probably have welcomed the Germans as liberators, at least initially, just as the Ukrainians and Baltic peoples did.
Once occupied, a guerrilla war would be the likely result, just as in the Balkans. And, just as in the Balkans, the Germans would have had just as many willing supporters as opponents, at least until the allies were able to provide effective logistical support and assistance. Even then the partisans are unlikely to affect any significant results until a major allied landing could take place.
Those landings would presumably take place on or after November 1942 instead of Operation Torch. Given the much broader, less mountainous terrain of Spain compared to Italy, a campaign in the Iberian Peninsula would probably significantly favour the allies.
_________________________________________________________________________________
The alternative to an outright Republican victory is for events to go the way Negrin had hoped; the Civil War continues and the Republic holds out until the wider general European war breaks out and the French and British intervene on the Republican side. This isn’t as unlikely as it would at first appear; the Republic did manage to hang on until March 1939, despite the best efforts of the Communists to needlessly waste their forces on politicly motivated, badly planned and ultimately futile offensives instead of fighting a purely defensive campaign. A purely defensive strategic campaign could have allowed the Republicans to hold out until later in 1939, when Hitler’s plans would have required him to withdraw his support from the Nationalists.
Had the Spanish Civil War been ongoing in September 1939, the Nationalists would have found themselves blockaded, cut off entirely from support from Germany, and possibly from Italy too. The French divisions that manned the Spanish frontier during the Battle of France IOTL would instead have moved over the frontier to stabilise the fighting in Catalonia and prevent further Nationalist advances.
If that were the situation when the Panzer Divisions rolled into France in 1940, things would be particularly grim for the Republicans; the Wehrmacht would swiftly role over the Pyrenees crossings and into the republican rear. Franco would be significantly more indebted to Hitler and Mussolini and in far less a position to exercise an independent foreign policy, even if he so desired.
For the Republicans to win requires two key things. The first is that it requires prompt and decisive action by local authorities within the first forty-eight hours of the beginning of the rebellion. Where civil authorities reacted swiftly and armed the militias, the rebellion either collapsed before it got going or was swiftly crushed. Where the civil authorities hesitated or acted indecisively, the Nationalists seized control. The resultant shape of the Nationalist held territory by the end of July 1936 reflected this almost entirely random process.
The second thing required for a Republican win is preventing the transport of the Army of Africa across the Straits of Gibraltar. The Army of Africa (AoA) represented the only reasonably well organised, trained and equipped force in Spain on either side. Unless they are prevented from landing in Spain a swift Nationalist defeat cannot be achieved, and a prolonged war favours the Nationalists.
Since the rebellion almost completely failed in the Spanish navy there is a real possibility of preventing the AoA from reaching Spain. The rebellion in the fleet had been a critical part of Franco’s plan and its failure necessitated a rapid rethink and the direct intervention of the Italians and Germans. Had Rome and Berlin been more cautious at this point the rebellion would have collapsed; the number of troops transported by Nationalist Breguets and Nieuports before the arrival of Italian Savoias and German Junkers was negligible.
On 19 July the Spanish government ordered all available warships to steam to the Straits to prevent the AoA from crossing. They were unsuccessful because the convoy of Nationalist troop transports was escorted by the German pocket Battleships Deuschland and Admiral Scheer. These two ships were, compared to the Spanish fleet, formidable. But there was only the two of them; their successful screening of the troop transports against a numerically superior Republican squadron would have been extremely difficult. This convoy included all of the heavy weapons used by the Nationalists in the first months of the war, so was absolutely critical. Had the Republicans chosen to attack the transports from multiple directions, and focused on the transports, not on the German warships, a great deal could have been achieved. The international repercussions of German warships opening fire on Spanish ships would have also been enormous.
If the rebellion was supressed, the Popular Front government and a democratic Spain is still extremely unlikely to survive. The provinces would have been in the hands of the various militias aligned with the main left wing political parties, or with the Basque and Catalonian provincial regimes; a struggle for power between the various left-wing parties, and between them and the Basques and Catalonians would be inevitable. Even during the Civil War, the threat of defeat and physical extermination by Franco’s forces wasn’t sufficient to prevent in-fighting between the Communists, Marxists and Anarchists; with the Carlists and Fascists defeated, fighting between the left wing elements would have been pretty much inevitable.
Even though Stalin had ordered the Comintern not to take a major role in the Popular Front government and the successive Republican governments, a Communist takeover is the most likely result of a civil war between them, the Marxists, the Anarchists and the regional regimes. Despite Stalin’s orders, the Spanish Communists were a bit too keen for glory and power to put off seizing control in Spain for the greater good internationally. As it was they disregarded the caution of the Comintern and effectively gained control of much of the Republican zone. Stalin was not acting out of altruism by the way; he didn’t want the British government to be alarmed at the possibility of the spread of international communism just when he was trying to forge an alliance with them against Hitler’s Germany.
A Communist takeover in Spain, even in a nominal coalition with other parties would still result in a massive bloodbath similar to that unleashed by Franco’s victorious forces. Not only would there be the (largely fictitious in 1936, it grew later) spectre of the Falangists to quite literally do away with, as well as the Carlists and Monarchists, but there are the provincial separatists and Marxists and Anarchists as well. The NKVD orchestrated purge in the rear areas of the Republican zone during the Civil War would have paled in comparison to what would have been unleashed by a successful Communist takeover.
Depending on when the Communists successfully took over significantly effects events, not only in Spain but also in during the European Crises of 1938 and ’39. An early victory would make the British establishment and the French Right even more paranoid of the spread of international Communism, a later victory just distracts from Hitler’s actions in central Europe. An early victory also deprives the Luftwaffe of a great deal of experience; experience that led to significant changes in German air tactics. A long drawn out and bitterly fought civil war in Spain between the various left wing parties could play completely into Hitler’s hands; distracting attention from his actions and hardening world opinion (i.e. British, French and American opinion) against Stalin.
By 1939 a Spanish Socialist Republic would most likely have a mutual defence pact with the Soviet Union. Even if they didn’t, Russia would still be the most likely source of their armaments. If they have a defence pact with Stalin, this would probably prevent a German invasion in the short term, but would almost guarantee a German invasion co-incident with the invasion of the Soviet Union.
A Spanish army operating in orthodox Soviet doctrine dominated by Soviet Commissars and equipped with old soviet equipment and with its airspace defended by I-15 and I-16s wouldn’t have presented much of an obstacle to the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe. After several years of purges the Spanish people would probably have welcomed the Germans as liberators, at least initially, just as the Ukrainians and Baltic peoples did.
Once occupied, a guerrilla war would be the likely result, just as in the Balkans. And, just as in the Balkans, the Germans would have had just as many willing supporters as opponents, at least until the allies were able to provide effective logistical support and assistance. Even then the partisans are unlikely to affect any significant results until a major allied landing could take place.
Those landings would presumably take place on or after November 1942 instead of Operation Torch. Given the much broader, less mountainous terrain of Spain compared to Italy, a campaign in the Iberian Peninsula would probably significantly favour the allies.
_________________________________________________________________________________
The alternative to an outright Republican victory is for events to go the way Negrin had hoped; the Civil War continues and the Republic holds out until the wider general European war breaks out and the French and British intervene on the Republican side. This isn’t as unlikely as it would at first appear; the Republic did manage to hang on until March 1939, despite the best efforts of the Communists to needlessly waste their forces on politicly motivated, badly planned and ultimately futile offensives instead of fighting a purely defensive campaign. A purely defensive strategic campaign could have allowed the Republicans to hold out until later in 1939, when Hitler’s plans would have required him to withdraw his support from the Nationalists.
Had the Spanish Civil War been ongoing in September 1939, the Nationalists would have found themselves blockaded, cut off entirely from support from Germany, and possibly from Italy too. The French divisions that manned the Spanish frontier during the Battle of France IOTL would instead have moved over the frontier to stabilise the fighting in Catalonia and prevent further Nationalist advances.
If that were the situation when the Panzer Divisions rolled into France in 1940, things would be particularly grim for the Republicans; the Wehrmacht would swiftly role over the Pyrenees crossings and into the republican rear. Franco would be significantly more indebted to Hitler and Mussolini and in far less a position to exercise an independent foreign policy, even if he so desired.
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BlairWitch749
Banned
The republicans get to experience a violent axis invasion; in 1940 if they are unaligned, in 1941 is they are overt allies of stalin
either way; the germans break through in the basque country, take bilboa, and establish convoys from la rochelle under fighter cover to ease the strain of sending everything through the mountains
after that the campaign is over, the front is simply too wide and the germans will encircle any force that stops to fight or run them off into the sea or internment in portugal
gibraltar can either be taken by storm, or laid seige to; either way the base is neutralized once the germans reach the other side since their artillery and aircraft can interdict the straits and render the port useless anyway
convoys for the 8th army AND supplies for malta now can only approach from one direction; so all subs and aircraft are concentrated in the eastern med; making the campaign that much more difficult and dangerous for the rn; certainly some in the RN staff are going to call for the abandonment of malta and the sole focus on egypt and the eastern med
churchill as stubborn as he was might very well order them to try to keep the island anyway which against increasingly focused opposition is going to lead to painful losses
either way; the germans break through in the basque country, take bilboa, and establish convoys from la rochelle under fighter cover to ease the strain of sending everything through the mountains
after that the campaign is over, the front is simply too wide and the germans will encircle any force that stops to fight or run them off into the sea or internment in portugal
gibraltar can either be taken by storm, or laid seige to; either way the base is neutralized once the germans reach the other side since their artillery and aircraft can interdict the straits and render the port useless anyway
convoys for the 8th army AND supplies for malta now can only approach from one direction; so all subs and aircraft are concentrated in the eastern med; making the campaign that much more difficult and dangerous for the rn; certainly some in the RN staff are going to call for the abandonment of malta and the sole focus on egypt and the eastern med
churchill as stubborn as he was might very well order them to try to keep the island anyway which against increasingly focused opposition is going to lead to painful losses
However, in many ways it also refused to play ball. Despite Hitler's help Franco sent no troops into France, only a relative handful into Russia, refused to invade Gibralter and totally frustrated Hitler when he negotiated with them. Hitler was far from happy with Spain OTL thinking that they were ungrateful to all his help.
Cook, you have given us a brilliant example of how alternate histories should be thought out based on thorough knowledge of the time and place. Keep it up!
BlairWitch749
Banned
Franco gave the germans critical mining rights and concessions that helped fuel the war effort
True, but he did very little considering how much Hitler helped him.
I've read Dr Strangelove's TL on this matter and thoroughly enjoyed it, however after reading Cook's long response to the OP, I wonder if there could be a pretty neat POD that hasn't really been explored and that is:
What if, even quite by accident, the Republican controlled fleet does intercept the Nationalist convoys, as protected by the Nazi vessels and does engage the escorts? Sort of like a more serious Dogger Bank incident
If the Spanish or Germans suffer a serious loss, or at least serious enough damage that it cannot be ignored, could we see a 1936 Nazi-Spanish War, assuming that the coup on the Mainland fails to take hold?
What if, even quite by accident, the Republican controlled fleet does intercept the Nationalist convoys, as protected by the Nazi vessels and does engage the escorts? Sort of like a more serious Dogger Bank incident
If the Spanish or Germans suffer a serious loss, or at least serious enough damage that it cannot be ignored, could we see a 1936 Nazi-Spanish War, assuming that the coup on the Mainland fails to take hold?
The Nazis would have to worry about resupply as that will have to go by sea as Germany has no direct connection to it.
They would have to go 200 KM or so through France to get to Spain by land. They would need to go by sea and pray that the Royal Navy doesn't show up and put a stop to it.
Direct intervention in that manner by Italy or Germany of an actual war against Spain would have brought Britain and France in and started a 'WWII' rather early - that was what the Non-Intervention Pact was about, after all.
Let's assume that there is a considerable argument back and forth in Nazi Germany about whether to intervene. By the time they decide to do so the Spanish Navy already destroyed the transports. Let's further suppose the Republicans really get lucky and win as it wasn't completely impossible. They first destroy the separatists and with the prestige from that are able to destroy the Communists right afterwords. Assume the French and Brits send them arms to help the do this. What happens then?
Indeed. I would like to see how a 1936 WW or more limited war would take place. I would think for one Nazi Germany would be a lot more fragile economically and militarily and for another it would have all sorts of butterflies. I suspect also that if the UK and Empire got involved in the war they would not have time or effort to pass the abdication legislation...