What if Franco and a few top Nationalist generals die in the Spanish Civil War and the Republicans manage to win it?
The Republicans win the Spanish Civil War
- Thread starter Johnrankins
- Start date
No ideas? Well I think if they win largely due to French backing they will be mostly Social Democrats if the USSR than Communist maybe even Stalinist. If the former they will never ally with the Nazis , if the latter is the case they will back the Nazis while they are aligned with the USSR and switch if/when the Nazis then invade it.
how they turn out depend on when they win.
If its early on, the country might be in some ways confederative (autonomy for catalonia and euskadi) and mostly democratic.
If on the other hand it happen in the later years of the war, you would probably end up with a socialist republic of some sort although for political reasons, it might not be overtly allied with the USSR.
If its early on, the country might be in some ways confederative (autonomy for catalonia and euskadi) and mostly democratic.
If on the other hand it happen in the later years of the war, you would probably end up with a socialist republic of some sort although for political reasons, it might not be overtly allied with the USSR.
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They wouldn't back Nazi Germany even with the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, given their ideological opposition. They wouldn't be solely an outpost of the USSR even with a mainly USSR-funded Republican victory.
As noted though, it depends why and how they won - British and French aid or even intervention would produce a different result to none. A social-democratic Spain might have either just remained neutral until near the end of the war, and probably would not join the Allies unless attacked or they were clearly winning and Spain was in no danger at all (late 1944-early 1945).
As noted though, it depends why and how they won - British and French aid or even intervention would produce a different result to none. A social-democratic Spain might have either just remained neutral until near the end of the war, and probably would not join the Allies unless attacked or they were clearly winning and Spain was in no danger at all (late 1944-early 1945).
Dr Strangelove has been a very good timeline on this subject here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=86718&page=38
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=86718&page=38
OTOH, without their side winning the Spanish Civil War the Nazis might look weaker and certainly no learn the right lessons and not do as well in WWII.
Eh, I think the cost of invading Spain (The Pyrenese would be incredibly difficult to invade through, and French and British divisions could easily garrison there) would far outweigh the costs for Germany, similar to Turkey. Spain would still probably stay neutral, but much less friendly to Germany.
Paul V McNutt
Banned
I, like Dr. Strangelove, think the Nazis invade Spain ITTL. The British ship enough troops to Spain to safeguard Gibraltor.
Much easier said then done. With the mountains in the way it would be pretty damn risky. They didn't invade Turkey or Switerland for simular reasons.
When all the only possible ways to enter Gibraltar are long, open killing grounds by water or one very long, thin, flat sandy crossing covered by lots and lots of guns and mines, it's quite a hard target. Particularly as the German forces are going to be navally bombarded once they get within twenty miles or so of Gibraltar, and the guns get more accurate as they close in...
deathscompanion1
Banned
The straits are very narrow the Luftwaffe would have a field day bombing the crap out of a fleet that couldnt maneuver and would have very limited air cover and U boats would simply fire torps and almost garenteed to hit somthing that said Im assuming they would be fighting the Royal navies entire medeterrianian fleet if not the odds improve do to more manuevoring room.
Except for the air cover which is inevitably going to move there (and have settled on the African side of the strait). And that they aren't going to be idiots and just sit there and be bombed... and that u-boats would be spectacularly vulnerable in such a confined space also.
Yeah, and the reason they didn't do it OTL if it was so easy is????
deathscompanion1
Banned
Because a single port wasnt worth invading spain.
I was just pointing out that the RN would have to be stupid to send a fleet into the straits and keep it there.
So spain gets invaded the allies decide to send a fleet to defend a single city.
If the Battle ships are to provide fire support they would have to stay in a fixed location in so the Luftwaffe gets to hit the same general area repeatedly and are opposed by fighters coming from airfields that werent built at the time. ships were at the time horrificly vunerable to aircraft, so a few Stukas could cause major damage.
U boats were probably worthless in the straits but hell they might get lucky.
Finally there is a HUGE difference from trying to sink convoy from across the sea and trying to hit warships staying in the same general area that said Goering will probably find a way to fuck it up as usual.
I was just pointing out that the RN would have to be stupid to send a fleet into the straits and keep it there.
So spain gets invaded the allies decide to send a fleet to defend a single city.
If the Battle ships are to provide fire support they would have to stay in a fixed location in so the Luftwaffe gets to hit the same general area repeatedly and are opposed by fighters coming from airfields that werent built at the time. ships were at the time horrificly vunerable to aircraft, so a few Stukas could cause major damage.
U boats were probably worthless in the straits but hell they might get lucky.
Finally there is a HUGE difference from trying to sink convoy from across the sea and trying to hit warships staying in the same general area that said Goering will probably find a way to fuck it up as usual.
Paul V McNutt
Banned
If Germany does not invade Spain ITTL, then Spain joins the allied side in mid to late 1944.
Why would it be worth in TTL unless Spain openly joins the Allies? After all Hitler was probably more pissed about Franco not joining after Germany helped him than he would a leadership he never helped.
d32123
Banned
To try and cut the British out of the Mediterranean. It would have been huge if he could have captured Gibraltar.
If Hitler invades a Republican Spain, the latter joins the Allies. As Hitler's troops move down the peninsula, wasting men and resources that otherwise would be preparing for the invasion of the USSR, the British can station planes in the Spanish enclaves across from Gibraltar (esp. in the 7.1 sq.mile Ceuta enclave directly across from Gib), with Spanish Republican forces (if they have the strategic foresight) also retreating and building up there, and can put troops into Spanish Morocco to threaten Vichy with retaliation from another direction if it dares to help its Nazi friends in the onslaught on Gibraltar. (The Nazis would not have the ships to launch an amphibious assault across the Strait--and if they use paratroops this possibly butterflies into the Brits and Greeks keeping Crete later.) British Naval forces would be stationed in the Canaries and the enclaves as well as Gib. Supplies could be built up in the Canaries and moved into Gib at night, partly by submarines. Also, if the Nazis take most of Spain they will be sorely tempted to seize Portugal as well; then the Allies get the Azores early, and perhaps Brazil enters the war a bit earlier and is able to provide a larger expeditionary force. Mussolini's navy seizes the Balearic Islands (taking heavy losses from the RN in the process) and his Army occupies Barcelona, and thus the Italians get bogged down in a resistance war that weakens them elsewhere.
Under these circumstances, taking Gib would not be so easy. And even if the Axis does, what have they gained? British supplies and reinforcements for North Africa mostly went around the Cape anyway. And the war against the U-boats now has new bases in the Atlantic, plus there is now a 'Free Spain' army composed of experienced troops and commanders from the Civil War who, with British and U.S. equipment, could be a significant factor in the North African campaign in 1942. Furthermore, the Nazis have to keep at least as many troops in Spain as in Norway, because the Spanish will surely have a vigorous resistance movement, which means at least a quarter million men who can't be used in invading the USSR in 1941-42 or in defending Normany in 1944.
Under these circumstances, taking Gib would not be so easy. And even if the Axis does, what have they gained? British supplies and reinforcements for North Africa mostly went around the Cape anyway. And the war against the U-boats now has new bases in the Atlantic, plus there is now a 'Free Spain' army composed of experienced troops and commanders from the Civil War who, with British and U.S. equipment, could be a significant factor in the North African campaign in 1942. Furthermore, the Nazis have to keep at least as many troops in Spain as in Norway, because the Spanish will surely have a vigorous resistance movement, which means at least a quarter million men who can't be used in invading the USSR in 1941-42 or in defending Normany in 1944.
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And so, what would happens to Salazar's Portugal? They turn more to another side? Republicans decides to 'help fellows in portugal' and attack it?