The Republic of Ireland never left the UK

Britain had been using military force in Ireland for centuries.

Very true but given the increase in the reporting and quite frankly the level of violence that the War of Independence created it was different from previous times.

I don't see how you get to 1921 and expect Ireland to remain within the UK, both the active campaign and the resulting votes (and the 1918 votes) show that it had gone to far. The UK would have had to garrison the majority of the island with much more force than historically deployed in order to maintain control. They could have done so, but it wouldn't have been anything close to choosing to remain within the Union.
 

Jonjo

Banned
I should of been more clear in the OP but what I was aiming for was a scenario with Ireland sort of being in Scotland's position in OTL, the Irish Parliament Party at one stage held the balance of power in the House of Commons led by Parnell.

A united Ireland within the UK some Home Rule granted and somehow the tensions between north and south diffused, not completely of course but being able to accept to live in the same country at least, that type of Ireland I suspect would of eventually got the same independance etc as Canada/Australia did but maybe at a slightly lesser level due to the close cultural and economic ties that exist between Ireland and Britain and obviously physical distance.

Dublin was once called the second city of the empire and when the leaders of the easter rising were being paraded through Dublin's streets most people were waving union jacks and spitting at them.. apparently it was the treatment of the leaders while imprisoned combined with the British army's treatment of the general people which was the finally made the Irish snap and brought out centuries old grievances that exploded etc, if that was somehow edited away then I think a united Ireland in the UK might be possible with a relatively happy Irish population willing to maintain the status quo, perhaps it might take the removal of the plantation of Ulster.. no north south anger etc.
 
I should of been more clear in the OP but what I was aiming for was a scenario with Ireland sort of being in Scotland's position in OTL, the Irish Parliament Party at one stage held the balance of power in the House of Commons led by Parnell.

A united Ireland within the UK some Home Rule granted and somehow the tensions between north and south diffused, not completely of course but being able to accept to live in the same country at least, that type of Ireland I suspect would of eventually got the same independance etc as Canada/Australia did but maybe at a slightly lesser level due to the close cultural and economic ties that exist between Ireland and Britain and obviously physical distance.

Dublin was once called the second city of the empire and when the leaders of the easter rising were being paraded through Dublin's streets most people were waving union jacks and spitting at them.. apparently it was the treatment of the leaders while imprisoned combined with the British army's treatment of the general people which was the finally made the Irish snap and brought out centuries old grievances that exploded etc, if that was somehow edited away then I think a united Ireland in the UK might be possible with a relatively happy Irish population willing to maintain the status quo, perhaps it might take the removal of the plantation of Ulster.. no north south anger etc.

I think its likely that an Ireland that had achieved Home Rule would push for a Dominion status at some stage, consider how the Free State pushed the boundaries of the Anglo Irish Agreement after 1922.

I also think that for this to happen you have to get Home Rule before the Rising, once you get to that point the IPP is weakened permanently and makes any chance of post WW1 Home Rule much more difficult if not impossible. As for the suggestion of the removal of the Ulster plantation, that's a POD well before 1900 and would make Ireland completely different by the time you are talking about.
 

Heavy

Banned
I should of been more clear in the OP but what I was aiming for was a scenario with Ireland sort of being in Scotland's position in OTL, the Irish Parliament Party at one stage held the balance of power in the House of Commons led by Parnell.

Of course, people like Joyce seemed to believe that Irish Home Rule would have been achieved more readily if Parnell hadn't been hounded to his grave by the priests (refer to the dinner scene in A Portrait Of the Artists As A Young Man).
 

Jonjo

Banned
I think its likely that an Ireland that had achieved Home Rule would push for a Dominion status at some stage, consider how the Free State pushed the boundaries of the Anglo Irish Agreement after 1922.

I also think that for this to happen you have to get Home Rule before the Rising, once you get to that point the IPP is weakened permanently and makes any chance of post WW1 Home Rule much more difficult if not impossible. As for the suggestion of the removal of the Ulster plantation, that's a POD well before 1900 and would make Ireland completely different by the time you are talking about.

Nomatter when Home Rule might of been granted the Ulster-Scots still would of been up in arms about it, the only way for that to be removed is if it was granted while Protestants were the leaders of Irish Republicanism like Wolfe Tone etc but that PoD is even more out of bounds.
 
I've often wonder about this given the current Scottish debate, how strong a movement on the Scottish issue was there during the period of Irish Home Rule? Would they have demanded it straight away? Would they have wanted it?

I think there were different factors in play between the different nations of the Union at the time.

Actually, the Asquith government did support a Scottish Home Rule bill, which passed the Commons on a second reading in 1913. The issue, however, was shelved with the outbreak of the First World War. Afterwards, with Ireland moving beyond Home Rule towards dominion status and full-on independence, the issue went away.

But it does seem like in the absence of the First World War, once Irish Home Rule is sorted out, Scottish Home Rule might well have been next.

By the end of the century there was significant momentum in the home rule movement. A Scottish Home Rule Association was founded in 1886. More importantly, by 1885 the Liberal leader, William Gladstone, had become converted to the idea of home rule.

Between 1889 and 1914 Scottish home rule was debated 15 times in Parliament, including the introduction of four bills. In 1913 a Home Rule Bill passed its second reading. World War I then intervened and the idea was dropped but support for home rule had been on the wane in any case, as campaigning for it meant associating with the more outspoken Irish home rule activists. This alienated support within Scotland both for the Liberals and constitutional change.

Source.

See also this.
 
But it does seem like in the absence of the First World War, once Irish Home Rule is sorted out, Scottish Home Rule might well have been next.

Ulster will fight and Ulster will be right.

The army had a freaking mutiny over the possibility of enforcing the bill and the UVF was stockpiling weapons for an armed insurrection.

There needs to be a much earlier than 1914 POD for things to work out.
 

Jonjo

Banned
Ulster will fight and Ulster will be right.

The army had a freaking mutiny over the possibility of enforcing the bill and the UVF was stockpiling weapons for an armed insurrection.

There needs to be a much earlier than 1914 POD for things to work out.

If the entire island was going after the UVF not just the northern counties that eventually became NI, the UVF or the army would not of last long to be honest.
 
Ulster will fight and Ulster will be right.

The army had a freaking mutiny over the possibility of enforcing the bill and the UVF was stockpiling weapons for an armed insurrection.

There needs to be a much earlier than 1914 POD for things to work out.

While the officers in the Curragh did "mutiny" if it hadn't been due to WW1 it's likely that the UK would most likely have called in Officers from the rest of the Empire to enforce the order if needed.

If there was some earlier deal of bringing in the Home Rule before 1914 then the UVF wouldn't have been armed or capable of acting against the Act.
 
While the officers in the Curragh did "mutiny" if it hadn't been due to WW1 it's likely that the UK would most likely have called in Officers from the rest of the Empire to enforce the order if needed.

If there was some earlier deal of bringing in the Home Rule before 1914 then the UVF wouldn't have been armed or capable of acting against the Act.

The UVF formed in 1912 and many officers in the army said they sympathised with it's aims crushing it would be very unpopular.
 
The UVF formed in 1912 and many officers in the army said they sympathised with it's aims crushing it would be very unpopular.

The Larne Gun Running however only happened in 1914, so even with the UVF forming in 1912 how much capability did they have between 1912 till 1914?

Of Course there was sympathy in the Garrison forces of Ireland towards the Unionist position, many would have been drawn from the Protestant Community, that's why the suggestion and I think it was the OTL plan to use officers drawn from outside of Ireland to deal with the matter.
 
The Larne Gun Running however only happened in 1914, so even with the UVF forming in 1912 how much capability did they have between 1912 till 1914?

Of Course there was sympathy in the Garrison forces of Ireland towards the Unionist position, many would have been drawn from the Protestant Community, that's why the suggestion and I think it was the OTL plan to use officers drawn from outside of Ireland to deal with the matter.

They were however also supported by many non-Irish officers and the Conservative Party so I seriously doubt the political will would be there.
 
And the fact that Ireland would most likely have some form of air defence capability by themselves, also at a guess Ireland would be harder for night bombing given the lower level of development.

An Ireland still connected to the UK might be incorporated into Chain Home and the air defense updates of the 1930s on top of any domestic air defenses.
 
An Ireland still connected to the UK might be incorporated into Chain Home and the air defense updates of the 1930s on top of any domestic air defenses.

Certainly and I think the RN would base the Approaches Command in Ireland and you'd have changes in deployments. One point I made in another thread was that Courageous might never have been lost since if Ireland was involved her patrol might be changed.

If you think about the potential RAF command in Ireland in terms of Coastal Command and others I could see the numbers to support a couple of extra squadrons for the Battle of Britain for example.

When you think about the situation of the inter war period the butterflies would be huge by having Ireland more engaged in the Union.
 
They were however also supported by many non-Irish officers and the Conservative Party so I seriously doubt the political will would be there.

It's a toss up as to how the situation would break down, and when things happened, if things progressed quicker than OTL then the UVF ma not be in a position to pose the level of threat that they did in 1914. I agree it would still be very difficult but something in 1913 would be different than 1914, were the officers that mutinied even in the same positions in 1912, 1913?
 
It's a toss up as to how the situation would break down, and when things happened, if things progressed quicker than OTL then the UVF ma not be in a position to pose the level of threat that they did in 1914. I agree it would still be very difficult but something in 1913 would be different than 1914, were the officers that mutinied even in the same positions in 1912, 1913?


I understand that it is possible for things to turn out well.

But the problem I have with it is that Bad Luck and Incompetence is pretty much the standard operating procedure in Anglo-Irish affairs.

I can see a blood civil war, a bloody insurgency, a cold Union that breaks apart within a few generations relatively peacefully, but I just can't see everything turning out well and reason prevailing.
 
I understand that it is possible for things to turn out well.

But the problem I have with it is that Bad Luck and Incompetence is pretty much the standard operating procedure in Anglo-Irish affairs.

I can see a blood civil war, a bloody insurgency, a cold Union that breaks apart within a few generations relatively peacefully, but I just can't see everything turning out well and reason prevailing.

I'm not disputing that, a the end of the day the phrase "never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity" should sum up Anglo Irish relations for significant periods of time. What you are proposing is quite possibly what would have happened in some form if Home Rule had been brought in. And even in the best case situation I would see Ireland pushing for Dominion status in the long term.

My point is that there are potential butterflies, if Home Rule was in place by 1914, what would the volunteer rates be for Ireland, could the IVF volunteer more, while the UVF/Ulster less due to being"sold out", how would that effect post WW1 views? Would Dublin bring in Conscription if so, when and how does that effect the butterflies.

A potential way for a possible peaceful route would be for all intents to buy off the Unionists perhaps, a combination of Westminster and Dublin policies to convince them that their economic situation wouldn't be harmed. It would require significant investment from the rest of the UK but perhaps it might be an option.

At no time would getting Home Rule passed and implemented be easy or without significant risks and negative reactions but I do think perhaps a different path in 1912 could have yielded some situation.
 
Looking at the thread title in a wider context could we see this in the light of modern nationhood under the common EU umbrella.

Now that decent rules of government behaviour, by and large, exist across the EU and the fear of invasion by larger neighbours is gone we see a rise in local nationhood. Scotland, England,Brittany, Catalonia, Basques, Wallonia, Flanders/'Brabant, Lombardy, Corsica, Occitania, Wales, Alsace/Lorraine, Bavaria, Silesia, Skane etc. see a noticeable demand for their own nations within the EU.

If the EU continues to 'balkanise' (in a good way) then there is no need for the UK and the (OTL) ROI would join with it's neighbours in swapping the Union as the UK for a Union as the EU.
 
If Collins and Childers had lived...

...But the disaster was that The Last Man Standing (LMS Rule) was Eamon de Valera.

You need different personalities and some judicious 'accidents' to the worst troublemakers.

You also need more reasonable English and Scots Government Ministers - and you don't need Carson.

And, of course, a POD as early as possible. Food handouts during the Irish Famines would have been a very good start - and grain export limitations. Irish commerce industry should also have been encouraged, not throttled - a merchant class would have been a force for moderation.:mad:
 
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