The Republic of Ireland in the Second World War

Thande

Donor
A brief scenario idea I had on waking up...

OK, so famously the Republic of Ireland was neutral throughout WW2 despite being bombed by accident by the Luftwaffe a few times. It's unlikely they would join the war from the beginning of course. But what about later on? De Valera seems to be the main obstacle here, so let's kill two birds with one stone. Some spectacularly unlucky Luftwaffe bombers bomb Dublin by accident in May 1941 (like OTL) but manage to hit Leinster House (unlike OTL) and kill de Valera and several other TDs together with other casualties. This combines a decapitated government with public outrage and, unlike the OTL Dublin bombing (which killed 38) can't be brushed off by the Germans so easily. If anything would bring the Republic into the war, it would be this.

Now, what effects would this have on the war? The southern Irish military was obviously too small for much of a direct contribution, and in any case it would be expected to remain home to defend the Republic itself. There are some exceptions, chiefly in things like the air force where Britain had more planes than it had pilots and could always use more. Britain might supply an expanded Irish Air Force with planes in exchange for part of that Air Force being based in Britain and helping the RAF, with the other part remaining home to defend against further Luftwaffe attacks.

Ireland's entry into the war would be of more strategic importance. Britain could use the Treaty Ports again (which had been given back in 1938) which helps the Royal Navy in the Battle of the Atlantic. For that matter, Ireland would allow more anti-submarine aircraft to be based further west than OTL, which also helps protect the convoys. But perhaps the most significant effect would be on the United States: it would turn the Irish-American vote (or some of it at least) pro-interventionist rather than isolationist. Not enough to bring the US into the war itself, of course, but enough to change the tone of the debate. Joseph Kennedy would probably be placed in a particularly awkward position in London and I wonder if he might be replaced as ambassador.

Anyway, thoughts?
 
I think Churchill promised the S. Irish Ulster if they entered the war. Would Churchill keep the promise?
 

Thande

Donor
I think Churchill promised the S. Irish Ulster if they entered the war. Would Churchill keep the promise?

Conveniently for him, Churchill wouldn't still be in power at a time when the question arose. It would be Attlee's problem.

I don't know, the government might offer a referendum, knowing the unionists would comfortably win it...
 
I think Churchill promised the S. Irish Ulster if they entered the war. Would Churchill keep the promise?

He was prepared to make some *huge* promises in order to win the war though. I would be very surprised if he could carry it off; and bluntly the insurgency that would be faced by a Republican government going into Ulster would not be pretty at all.
 

Thande

Donor
He was prepared to make some *huge* promises in order to win the war though. I would be very surprised if he could carry it off; and bluntly the insurgency that would be faced by a Republican government going into Ulster would not be pretty at all.

True. On the other hand, the Republic officially fighting alongside mainland British and Northern Irish troops in the war might heal some wounds a bit.
 
If Ireland fought for the Allies during the war, I think they'd end up joining NATO, presuming it's still formed. OTL they refused because it would have meant accepting the N. Irish border.
 
Ireland was neutral during WW2 in name only. They supplied the British with weather reports, captured German pilots crashing in Ireland or escaping from POW camps in Ulster, returned British pilots, allowed the allies to create a radar station in their territory and allowed Irish citizens to join the British army (38,000 did)

This could have led to Germany declaring war on Ireland. I don't know how better off the allies would have been though. Ireland did have too many officers with modern warfare training. They would probably be forced to rely on British, French and other allies officers.

It goes without saying that the Irish would be organized as their own army. Instead of being placed where they were needed in the British army, which was the most effective way they could be used, a single Irish army would be less useful as it needs to be trained from the top down.
 
I think that a lot of the southern government might remember the proposed boundary commision from 1921. IIRC, The Republic would have made not insubstantial gains from Ulster had it gone through rather then getting brushed over when it was leaked.

Now in a direct referendum for the entire province, the Unionists will obviously win. Hell, they know they'll win anyway, but they'll do everything they can to make sure that the pro-unification votes get spoiled or lost. It can't just be "The Unionist majority of Ulster says NO" it has to be "Nearly 100% of the population of Ulster says NO".
Now if anyone from the South remembers the boundary commission and has any brains, they'll try and force that through over a general referendum.

As for Irish participation in the war. The army is too small to make a major contribution, though a brigade might be allowed to take part on the continent underan American or Commonwealth officer post-Normandy.
If Michael Collins were alive, he'd try to get as much say in the Grand Strategy as possible, and would try to encourage more support for partisans based on his own experiences of the War of Independence and the Civil War.
Speaking of which, many Irish officers and former IRA leaders could wind up with the SOE, being dropped into occupied France or Norway to help train local guerillas.
 
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Cook

Banned
Britain could use the Treaty Ports again (which had been given back in 1938) which helps the Royal Navy in the Battle of the Atlantic. For that matter, Ireland would allow more anti-submarine aircraft to be based further west than OTL, which also helps protect the convoys. But perhaps the most significant effect would be on the United States: it would turn the Irish-American vote (or some of it at least) pro-interventionist rather than isolationist. Not enough to bring the US into the war itself, of course, but enough to change the tone of the debate. Joseph Kennedy would probably be placed in a particularly awkward position in London and I wonder if he might be replaced as ambassador.

Surely this would the easiest change to make; don’t have Britain give up the Treaty Ports. The decision to do so would seem to be totally pointless since it wasn’t prompted by the Irish and gained nothing for Britain by doing so. Since the convoys were bringing food to Ireland as well it was in Ireland’s interests to allow British air and sea protection to operate most effectively. The Irish Free State’s states would be that of a Non-belligerent.

As to Kennedy; he was too rich and too powerful for Roosevelt to touch even when we made statements that directly contradicted what the President was saying.
 

Tovarich

Banned
Maybe a workable deal with the IFS could be not a promise to give them Ulster - which they probably knew wouldn't happen anyway - but rather a guarantee to heavily lean on the Lodges until they stop being such dicks, and beginning immediately, not after the war is over.
George VI could even relocate to Hillsborough for a while, and do some of that heavy-leaning personally!

(Later on, as a bonus, this might butterfly away all the Troubles and the shit that led up to them, plus a lot of the unpleasantness that goes down in Scotland, by extension.)
 
Hmmm

Your main difficulty is that de Valera doesnt really want re unification, Churchill offer was valid and the Unionists (leadership) seemed to accept it as necessary evil for the war effort.
The problem is bringing in the 6 counties destabilizes the Irish political landscape, dev had a vision for the future of Ireland that could never be implemented if 40% of the voting populace are suddenly ex-Unionists.
 
OK, so famously the Republic of Ireland was neutral throughout WW2 despite being bombed by accident by the Luftwaffe a few times. It's unlikely they would join the war from the beginning of course. But what about later on? De Valera seems to be the main obstacle here, so let's kill two birds with one stone. Some spectacularly unlucky Luftwaffe bombers bomb Dublin by accident in May 1941 (like OTL) but manage to hit Leinster House (unlike OTL) and kill de Valera and several other TDs together with other casualties. This combines a decapitated government with public outrage and, unlike the OTL Dublin bombing (which killed 38) can't be brushed off by the Germans so easily. If anything would bring the Republic into the war, it would be this.

Assuming that he's not killed along with De Valera, Sean T. O'Kelly would become the leader of this decapitated government. Would he declare war on Nazi Germany? I'm not so sure, but then again I'm no expert on this area of history...That being said, a more serious bombing of Dublin in May '41 would not come out of the blue and could quite plausibly be the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back, causing Kelly to succumb to public opinion and declare war.

Given the Republic of Ireland's woeful military at the time, I'd wager that they'd be a prime candidate for Lend-Lease in the months leading up to Pearl Harbor and following. One wonders though, at the eventual size of the Irish Armed forces, how much would the government be willing to invest, and in what areas specifically? Given the large numbers of Irish volunteers in the British Armed Forces, manpower probably wouldn't be a problem and as the war progresses, neither will equipment.

Initially, I think the main concern would be the Air Force and Navy. Given that German bombing raids were now occurring solely at night, Perhaps Ireland buys up a squadron or two of Defiant Night-fighters from the RAF in order to adequately protect itself, to be piloted of course by Irish RAF vets. Later once the threat of bombing has subsided I'd wager that the Irish Airforce would shift more to ASW duties, with perhaps an eye to eventually participate in the war on the European continent. Naval procurements are probably going to be exclusively geared towards ASW duties, a few destroyers, corvettes and frigates is the biggest I think it will get.

I do like the idea of IRA veterans being parachuted into occupied Europe to aid the SOE. Sounds like something that would definitely happen in this scenario, though on what scale I'm unsure...
 
Ireland had a population of ~3,000,000 in the 1940s per Wikipedia. The US put about 10% of its population in uniform in WWII - no reason I know of Ireland couldn't do the same. That's 300,000 soldiers. That's enough to sustain a solid fighting Corps of three or four divisions plus the usual support units.

Granted, the problem the Allies had wasn't raising or equipping units, it was transporting them to the front, but I could easily see an Irish division serving with the British 2nd Army or the Canadian 1st Army.
 
I don't know about everyone else, but I'm fascinated with this idea right about now.

So let's sum up what we have so far:

May 1941 bombing of Dublin is worse, De Valera is killed along with numerous others and replaced by Kelly who brings the Republic of Ireland into WWII in exchange for redrawing the boundaries of Northern Ireland.

Ireland then begins to build up it's military as fast as it possibly can, investing initially in night fighters, flying boats and ASW naval vessels, with the Army coming in last place. They are aided in this endeavour by the return of thousands of Irish veterans formerly serving in the British Armed forces as well as the allocation of significant Lend Lease materiel. In addition to this, Ireland allows Britain to operate from bases within it's borders a fact alone that severely impedes German U-boat activity. IRA veterans are also made available to the SOE in order to make use of their experience in partisan warfare and facilitate the growing resistance movement in occupied Europe. All of this is accelerated by the entry of the USA into the war in December 1941.

TTL's Battle of the Atlantic is severely truncated by the use of Irish bases by the Allies resulting in far more supplies getting to Europe and on the other hand fewer resources being used to counter the ever dwindling number of U-boats. The French resistance is also significantly bolstered in TTL due to the presence of former IRA veterans operating under the command of the SOE. Though the idea of committing troops to a European ground war is contentious in Ireland, eventually a fully equipped Infantry division is sent to fight alongside the rest of the Allies invading Normandy. I think being attached to a US army group would be preferred by the Irish but they could very well be attached to the 1st Canadian Army, or a British Army group as well. Regardless of where they serve, a single extra Infantry division isn't going to change a whole lot on the ground.

Due to a shorter Battle of the Atlantic, a slightly better European resistance, and lastly the presence of an Irish Division in Europe, TTL's V-E day comes a few months earlier than in OTL with the Western Allies taking a bit more of Germany than they did in OTL.

Now for the Post-war world:

-Obviously Ireland is going to be a part of the UN from the get go, what with no USSR objections to them joining in TTL. Irish participation in NATO in TTL is also highly likely. As a result the Irish Military probably sees more investment, I'd imagine their focus to be on ASW with limited air defense as well as territorial defense. Thoughts?

-Northern Ireland will shrink as the Catholic areas probably all vote to join the South greatly decreasing tensions in the region. The Orangemen will surely raise a stink, but other than that it's a win for almost everyone. How would the IRA have reacted to a favourable adjustment of the border with Northern Ireland?

-How will participation in WWII (and possibly NATO) change Irish politics post-war?

-How will Ireland react to the formation of the EU?

-Given the lack of any meaningful "Troubles" in TTL (I assume, due to the border adjustment), how will Northern Ireland and by extension Britain develop?

-There's definitely going to be a bigger Irish peacekeeping presence in TTL...possible effects?

-Other thoughts?
 

Warsie

Banned
There's an older thread on this very subject look for it just in case there is stuff some of us forgot to write down.
 

Cook

Banned
OK, so famously the Republic of Ireland was neutral throughout WW2...

By the way, Ireland was a Dominion during World War Two. The Irish Ambassador in Berlin carried letters of introduction accredited from the Court of Saint James and signed by King George IV.

The Republic of Ireland came into being in 1949.
 
How ironic, there was a thread recently asking if you could have two heads of state and we all forgot that one.
Well, it depends on which school of constitutional interpretation you're talking about. In the British school, the President was just an officer administering the government in the name of the Crown in a given Dominion, albeit not appointed directly (a similar situation exists for the Governor-General of PNG). In the Irish school, well, De Valera claimed the President was the head of state, but the other major party claimed the King was. Most foreign nations, however, recognized the King as Head of State, of whom the President was just a representative.
 
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