The Republic of Ezo

[Viscount of Ohio]

I'm thinking of attempting to do an actual timeline and the subject in question is something that I'm relatively uninformed about but that interests me quite a bit.

The Republic of Ezo was established during the Boshin War (1868-1869) the Japanese Admiral Enomoto Takeaki retreated to the island of Ezo (Later renamed 'Hokkaido') with a force of approximately:

3,000 soldiers (including 36 members of a band of guerrillas known as the 'Yugekitai')

A number of former Shogunate officials

Four steam powered war ships and four steam transport ships

A typhoon however caused two of the transports to have to port for the sake of repairs where they were captured.

Among the other soldiers they had were a handful of French military advisers, including Jules Brunet, Hijikata Toshizo (Former head of the Shinsengumi), Otori Keisuke (Who had studied French infantry tactics) and finally Arai Ikunosuke who was given the role of Navy Minister.

Although militarily the troops were lead by both French and Japanese officials, it was largely dominated by the French military advisers.

Otori was Commander in Chief with Jules Brunet as his second. The forces were split into four brigades commanded by a French officer and then each of them divided into 8 sub-brigades commanded by a Japanese officer.

Now, through the local magistrate Enomoto had been making attempts at diplomacy with both France and Britain as well as the Meiji Emperor. The two European powers had given conditional recognition to the Ezo Republic while the Japanese government did not.

I'd also like to point out both sides in this conflict were surprisingly modern, including steam and at least one iron clad warship and the use of Gatling Guns, Armstrong Cannons, and such.

It should be noted that at the time Ezo/Hokkaido was not considered part Japan like Shikoku, Kyushu, and Honshu were. So it technically was not an attempt to secede from Japan, Enomoto even went so far as to request to be allowed to continue the traditions of the Samurai unmolested and cultivate the island as a way to protect Japan from the north.

And finally, the republic had a standing treasury of 180,000 Gold Ryo (Although I have no idea how that would convert for an idea of their actual wealth)

So...I guess what I'm asking is what would be a possible point of divergence to keep this fledgling republic alive? Britain or France deciding to prop them up? A more understanding Meiji government?

And even then, how well could it have done? It had only a very small population. If I can find a way to make this timeline work, I was thinking of them making stronger ties to Russia and France given the closeness of the former and the aid they received from the latter.

It would probably be re-absorbed at some point but extending it's existence even for only a few decades could certainly cause some interesting changes. So I was just looking for suggestions to help me out in making this somehow work. Sorry for the long rambling and the inclusion of so many statistics.

 

[maverick]

Well, the best way would be Foreign Intervention, but you'd need that at the start of the war, with a more involved France or even Russia, although I would question the plausibility of Russia becoming involved in such a far away dispute in the 1860s.

Otherwise, the Republic is unlikely to survive more than a few decades, and even that's stretching it, given its position and the unifying and expansionist drive of the Meiji era.

You could have Britain support Ezo, arguing its a strategic location and a good way to keep Russia in check, although that would too require European interference at the dawn of the Boshin War.

Personally, I'd like to see Napoleon III interfering in Korea in 1866 (there was an incident but it didn't really escalate due to Mexico) and Japan in 1868, but as said before, this one would need no French Invasion of Mexico.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Interestingly you can get a sort of loop knock-on effect, in that a surviving Ezo would probably mean a more widespread Satsuma Rebellion, a weakened Meiji Japan and thus a better chance for a longer-surviving Ezo

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Archangel]

Shogunate loyalists could also migrate to the republic, giving them a much needed poopulation basis.
What would be the effects on the Japanese militarism of the time, since the Ezo Republic would require a lot of foreign help?

 

[Viscount of Ohio]

Maverick: I was thinking something along those lines. The French military aides had resigned their posts in the French army and helped the Japanese of their own accord, however if they pulled some of their strings it's possible they could have at least gotten some supplies from France I suppose.

Russia on the other hand the only reason I could think to have them interfere in these events would be out of a long term spite. Back in the late 1700's or early 1800's they'd sent a diplomat to Japan who had refused to leave until the Japanese agreed to give them a trade agreement. The Japanese gave him a false agreement however just to make him leave. So, depending on just how spiteful Russia can be in this timeline...they might be able to help prop up Ezo, at least for a while. The effect that could have on the Russian-Japanese war in 1904 could be very interesting with Ezo's loyalties split.

France at this time did have a lot of interest in Japan, so them helping prop up Ezo to get a better trade access doesn't seem implausible to me...and perhaps even likely if they believe that Briton is going to do it first.

Grey Wolf: Well, it seems as though the Republic of Ezo was a last ditch effort by some of the Shogunate loyalists, and it did outlast the Boshin war by about a month. So, if it could become a rallying point for the remnants of the Shogunate...

Archangel: That's what I'm wondering myself. It would be fun to work through it. Enomoto said he wished to build up Ezo as a northern defense for Japan but if he finds himself deeply indebted to a western power he might feel obligated to help them progress in Asia as well. Again, playing with the split loyalties, and Ezo having to decide it's cultural identity (Between Japanese factions, European aid, and the native Ainu).

I've got a few ideas I'm just trying to figure out a plausible POD...and then determine whether it makes more sense to eventually have Ezo re-absorbed into Japan or continue as an independent nation. Although it seems more likely than not that it would end up re-absorbed. Possibly at some point between World War I and World War II.

 

[DuQuense]

It should be noted that at the time Ezo/Hokkaido was not considered part Japan like Shikoku, Kyushu, and Honshu were. So it technically was not an attempt to secede from Japan

Given that Japan had annexed Sakhalin Island to the North of Hokkaido in 1820, I don't see how Hokkaido wouldn't be part of Japan in the 1860's.

with a more involved France or even Russia, although I would question the plausibility of Russia becoming involved in such a far away dispute in the 1860s.

Russia and Japan spent the period 1820~1860 in a undeclared Minor war over Sakhalin Island.
Lots of burning each others trading post, and killing all the People.
So I Doubt if any Japanese group will want aid from Russia

 

[Viscount of Ohio]

Given that Japan had annexed Sakhalin Island to the North of Hokkaido in 1820, I don't see how Hokkaido wouldn't be part of Japan in the 1860's.

Well, for a while it was controlled by the Ainu, a separate Ethnic group, so I suppose it was seen as it's own thing. From what I know of it's history it wasn't annexed/put under the administration of the Colonization office until after the Boshin War. So to an extent, I suppose Ezochi/Hokkaido was indeed it's own entity.

Russia and Japan spent the period 1820~1860 in a undeclared Minor war over Sakhalin Island.
Lots of burning each others trading post, and killing all the People.
So I Doubt if any Japanese group will want aid from Russia

This does make sense. So then, if it received outside aid from anyone it would likely be the French, who already had military advisers there or the British who had already given conditional recognition to Ezo as a nation.