The Reign of Alexander II and the Death of the Tsarevich - a TL

OK, so I decided to do what I did for Germany already with Kaiser Friedrich III and have Alexander II survive to reform the Russian Empire, leading to a surviving Russian Empire (probably) and a different 20th century.



The Reign of Alexander II and the Death of the Tsarevich



Chapter I: Reforms, 1855 – 1913.


Alexander II was born in 1818 as the son of Nicholas I of Russia and Charlotte of Prussia who was the daughter of Friedrich Wilhelm III of Prussia and Louise of Mecklenburg-Strelitz. His younger years were no indication at the time of his potential to tackle the worst problems of the Russian Empire and reform it into a more modern state even though he was well educated, knew a number of European languages and had visited twenty provinces of Russia, giving him knowledge about the state of his empire. There was no freedom of thought in Russia under Nicholas I and the intellectual atmosphere was stifling since criticism of the regime at this time was considered a serious offense. This would slowly but surely come to change during the reign of Tsar Alexander II, Emperor and Autocrat of all the Russias, who succeeded his father in 1855 at the age of 37. His first year in power was devoted to ending the Crimean War (1853-1856) which had exhausted the Russian giant. The resulting Treaty of Paris humiliated Russia, but Alexander II had no choice but to accept the terms of the treaty: Russia lost its territory on the mouth of the Danube, it had to renounce its protection over Christians in the Ottoman Empire in favour of France, the Aland Islands in the Baltic Sea were to be demilitarized and Russia lost influence over the Romanian principalities which were given greater autonomy along with Serbia afterward. From there, Alexander II could begin with the immense task of ruling and modernizing his backward country with the largest reforms since Catherine the Great or even Peter the Great, starting with the emancipation of the serfs.

The existence of serfdom was handled quite daringly. Taking advantage of a petition presented by the Polish landed proprietors of the Lithuanian provinces, who hoped that their relations with the serfs might be regulated in a way more satisfying to them, he authorized the formation of committees for ameliorating the condition of the peasants. This step was followed by a still more important one. Without consulting his ordinary advisors, Alexander had a circular sent to the provincial governors of Western Russia, containing a copy of the instructions sent to the governor-general of the Lithuanian provinces, praising the “generous, patriotic intentions” of the Lithuanian landed elites, and suggesting that perhaps the land owners of other provinces should express a similar desire. The hint was taken: in all provinces where serfdom existed, emancipation committees were formed. But the emancipation was not merely a humanitarian question capable of being solved instantaneously by imperial proclamation from St. Petersburg. It contained very intricate issues which had strong effects on the economic, social and political future of the Russian Empire. Alexander now had to choose between a large number of different measures recommended to him by the so-called “emancipation committees” of the provinces of Russia. Should the serfs become agricultural labourers dependent economically and administratively on the landowning class, or should they be transformed into a class of independent communal land owners? Alexander II gave his support to the latter project, and the Russian peasantry became one of the last groups of peasants in Europe to shake off serfdom. On March 3rd 1861, 6 years after his accession to the throne, the emancipation act was signed and went into effect.

The Tsar also introduced a number of other reforms such as a new French-based penal code and a unified justice system for all of Russia. Laws were more codified than before, taking away the autonomy of lower courts and from now on all parties were equal in theory (in practice extrajudicial punishment would continue for some years to come). As a response to the defeat in the Crimean War, Alexander II also reformed the military. He introduced universal conscription so that everyone, rich or poor, noble or non-noble, had to serve in the armed forces. Corporal punishment was banned from the Russian armed forces and a military reserve was created along with a system of military districts. These were some of the most sweeping reforms in decades if not more. The Tsar also introduced a complex scheme of limited local autonomy for rural districts and large towns with elective assemblies (Zemstvo) who collected taxes among other things. Alexander during these reforms also re-established the Diet of Finland and elevated Finnish to a national language, encouraging Finnish Nationalism. It is unsure why he did this; according to some he wanted to test reforms in a homogenous and not densely populated area while others claim he wanted to reward the usually western oriented Finns for their services in the Crimean War. Regardless of his intentions, he was a popular Tsar among the Finns. In any case, Alexander II followed a generally liberal course when compared to his reactionary predecessor, but not in all fields. Russia was still a “peoples’ prison” with Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Armenians, Kazakhs, Turkmens, Uzbeks and so on and the Tsarist regime suppressed their nationalisms and support the Russians who were the largest group. The Russians for example had a Polish Revolt (1863-’64) squashed and many were executed or deported. The Polish language was banned from both oral and written use except in Congress Poland and the Ukrainian, Belarusian and Lithuanian languages were banished from print. Alexander II was as much a reformer as he was a tyrant. Nonetheless, his reforms were of great benefit to Russia and the ethnic policies would change in the twentieth century, not under Alexander II.

Unsurprisingly, there were a number of assassination attempts, none of which succeeded, fortunately. The most serious one was in March 1881. Tsar Alexander II was known for many years to go the Manezh to review the Life Guards there every Sunday. He travelled both to and from the Manezh in a closed carriage accompanied by six Cossacks with a seventh sitting left of the coachman. The Tsar's carriage was followed by two sleighs carrying, among others, the chief of police and the chief of the Tsar's guards. The route, as always, was via the Catherine Canal and over the Pevchesky Bridge. The street was flanked by narrow sidewalks for the public where a young member of the Narodnaya Volya (People's Will) movement stood, carrying a small white package which contained a bomb. Unbeknownst to him, the Tsar had fallen ill and would be bedridden for some time and so he had sent an aide to meet their with important ministers. The young revolutionary threw the bomb and the blast killed whoever was inside the carriage. The aide died, but the Tsar lived on to continue his most innovative reform. After the previous assassination attempt of 1880, Alexander II had appointed Count Loris-Melikov as head of the Supreme Executive Commission with extraordinary powers to combat the revolutionaries. He had given the Tsar the advice to form some sort of legislative body or parliament, an advice that the Emperor didn’t really like. Despite all the liberal reforms, he was still obstinate in playing the role of Russian Autocrat, but he was also pragmatic enough to see what had to be done. Russia was weak and backward compared to Western Europe. Its rivals had all surpassed it in power, save for the moribund Ottoman Empire which continued to go down the spiral of administrative dysfunction, conservatism, weak military power and restive minorities. The would-be killer of the Tsar was hanged and couldn’t prevent the reforms. The aristocracy was the main obstacle; they didn’t want to share their privileged position with European-style mass parties. They feared that they would slip into insignificance if the people were given a vote. They were supported by the Tsarevich, Alexander, whose reactionary ideas conflicted with the more liberal ones of his father. Months of bickering ensued, but Alexander II was able to demonstrate the need for reform to shut up the revolutionaries and appease the people which would arguably preserve the nobility’s privileges better than a violent revolution and end to the Tsarist regime. In 1882, the Duma was erected and elections were proclaimed.

Mass parties didn’t exist yet, but they soon formed although they had no political experience and were fragmented, quite different from the Western “three parties plus crumbs” model. The Tsar and the nobility would exploit this through a “divide and conquer” policy combined with a “carrot and stick” policy (through emphasizing the divides between parties while also offering rewards and/or punishment, the establishment made certain their privileges weren’t touched). There were liberals, socialists, Christian-Democrats and a smattering of bickering nationalist parties and one issue parties. Unlike in the west, these parties were often divided into three or two. The liberals had a split between left and right liberalism, the socialists between the moderate social-democrats and the radical communists and the Christian-Democrats between reactionaries and a more tolerant faction. Then there was the strong Russian nationalist party which supported Slavic nationalism, the Russian Orthodox Church and the Tsar. Eventually, after three months of political paralysis, a coalition was formed. The Russian system was more based on the Imperial German system (already aped quite successfully by Japan) than the British Westminster model. Nonetheless, a semblance of democracy had been created even if it was still dominated by the Tsar and the elites. As a compromise to the mass parties, the Tsar had the right to appoint ministers as he pleased after the elections, but not to dismiss them or disband the government (this was done by Alexander II to prevent his son from turning back the reforms some day). Out of the previous changes a system of tentative consultation and cooperation would emerge between the Tsar and the nobles on one hand and the powerful mass parties with support from large segments of the populace on the other hand, making the uneasy mix of ethnicities much more stable (setting Russia on a course away from tottering ruin and toward the twentieth century). Elections were henceforth to be held every six years and universal male suffrage from the age of 21 was introduced. At first glance, these first steps may seem small, but for a country that had known nothing but autocratic monarchy, it was a major leap forward. The next reform was a leap even more so. This reform was a constitution in which all the rights and duties of the people were laid down such as equality before the law, habeas corpus, freedom of speech and gathering and so on, making Russia a pseudo-democracy (still an improvement over Absolute monarchy).

Tsar Alexander II continued to reform, even more radical than before, this time in the economic field in which feudal Russia also lagged behind significantly. He abolished protectionist measures and tariffs to attract foreign investment, mainly from France, but also from America with which Russia had friendly relations. In the meantime a majority in the Russian Duma voted in favour of a law which made universal education up to the age of twelve compulsory, starting the massive educational reform of the Russian Empire. Illiteracy rates were extremely high in Russia when compared to the west and within one decade they would drop to a mere 10% of the population despite difficulties such as finding qualified teachers and funds. The social-democrats, in the meantime agitated for a shorter workday and so a ten hour workday was instated. In return, they accepted the relatively low wages of factory workers, miners and railroad workers among other things. Alexander pressed for railroad construction to improve Russian infrastructure and low wages were necessary to finance their construction. If this succeeded than Russia would be able to respond quicker to any military threat and mobilize faster. One of the results of the Tsar’s policies was that many exchanged a very labour intensive peasant existence for life in the cities. The industrial revolution which had started decades before in other countries now finally started to get hold on Russia too for all the problems it entailed. Russia had an ocean of unskilled cheap labour and many natural resources, and the end of protectionist measures encouraged investment from entrepreneurs and rich businessmen. By the end of the 19th century, industrialization would be quite well underway. Specifically mining and the heavy industrial sectors rose to prominence as Russia still lacked the basis for more advanced industries such as optics and electronics although this would change later. Production of coal and steel, the cornerstones of modern economies, rose rapidly to exceed British production by 1900. Besides these, Russia also produced textiles, machinery, weapons, petroleum, pig iron, iron ore, chemicals and electricity. This was the start of a period of economic growth whereas the rest of the world experienced a malaise in the 1880s. There were problems, though. Though there was enough unskilled labour, skilled labour was harder to come by and due to the sudden urbanisation, there was a serious housing shortage, forcing people to live in slums and small, overcrowded houses. The problem was remedied by better, but affordable “social housing” and a number of labour laws modelled on those of Bismarck (although the Russian versions were less extensive) curbed the rise of the communists and silenced any serious opposition from the semi-tolerated trade unions. By 1910, Russia would be the third largest industrial power of the world, behind the USA and Germany, eclipsing Britain and France.

This had its good effects on Russia too. Electricity slowly spread to all major cities giving Moscow and St. Petersburg streetlights by 1910, consumer goods became more widely available, affluence rose and mobility increased with a rapidly expanding network of roads, railroads, waterways and modern communications such as telegraphs and telephone lines (for example the St. Petersburg-Moscow-Vladivostok Telegraph Service). The railroad network alone increased from only a few thousand kilometres in 1856 to 60.000 kilometres in 1900 and 102.000 in 1912 with feats of engineering such as the Trans-Caspian, Turkestan-Siberian and Trans-Siberian railways. Nonetheless, the continuities and discrepancies between social layers shouldn’t be downplayed either; the reforms are often seriously overrated. Russia remained fundamentally authoritarian and a divide between those with power and those without it remained. Moreover, although living standards increased, they still fell short of western standards in large parts of the Russian Empire. The initiator of the reforms, Alexander II, eventually passed away in 1889 at the age of 71, after his son had tragically passed away in 1887 at the young age of 42 of a heart attack allegedly out of frustration for being kept off the throne and his inability to stop the liberal reforms (which was perhaps for the better). He died as one of the most celebrated Tsars in Russian history. According to the Pauline Laws, the Tsar was succeeded by his eldest male heir, in this case Grand Duke Vladimir Alexandrovich who Alexander had been grooming to be his heir for some time after the death of his first heir Alexander. He was crowned Tsar Vladimir III, Emperor and Autocrat of all the Russias, in the Moscow Dormition Cathedral and continued building on the system built by his father and would continue to modernize.
 
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The reformed Russia was quite active in the foreign field too. In 1890, German Emperor Wilhelm II persistently refused to renew the Reinsurance Treaty, believing that his own relation with the Tsar was good enough to prevent any diplomatic alienation. He sought tighter relations with the British who persistently rebuffed him. The result was that Russia, as Bismarck had always feared during his tenure as chancellor, strengthened ties with France to end its perceived isolation. In hindsight, Russo-German relations were impossible unless Germany had been willing to anger Austria-Hungary whose interests in the Balkans conflicted more and more with those of St. Petersburg, and therefore the casus belli for the Great War is hardly surprising. Russia became stronger at this time, but so did Germany where Wilhelm II wanted to build a navy that could rival the Royal Navy. Britain was now conflicted between either curbing rising German naval power and containing their imperialism which would go at the expense of Britain and France if the Germans had their way, or stopping Russia’s increasing influence in the Middle East. The Kaiser’s diplomatic bumbling and aggressive attitude would turn Britain against him decisively against him in spite of the brief threat of an Anglo-French War in 1898 over Fashoda in Sudan.

One of the consequences of Russia’s growing strength was a much more assertive or even aggressive foreign policy which showed as well. Russia started to expand its sphere of influence into Manchuria and building railroads there as well as “leasing” Port Arthur, much to the chagrin of the powerless Chinese, but also a rising Japan whose territorial claims conflicted with those of Russia. The Russian military would first see action against the Chinese in the Boxer Rebellion. The Boxers were originally a village sect from Shandong province who practiced martial arts, meditation and callisthenics which they believed would make them immune to swords and bullets and make them capable of other superhuman feats. Against the backdrop of government ineptitude, harvest failures, western colonialism and cosmopolitanism, missionary evangelism and unequal treaties, they revolted. They first attacked Chinese Christians and then took Beijing where they besieged the embassies of the western powers, killing the German ambassador which sparked an international response. Dowager Empress Ci Xi declared war and Japan, Russia, Britain, France, the United States, Italy and Austria-Hungary sent troops as the Eight Nation Alliance, a rare show of solidarity and a unified commitment from the west. Chinese forces were smashed and war reparations were forced on the crumbling Chinese Empire. Russia took the opportunity to annex Mongolia, in spite of Chinese resistance, as a buffer zone to the Trans-Siberian railroad.

Expanding Russian influence led to rising tensions between Russia and Japan, especially when the Russians obtained mining and forestry concessions on the Yalu and Tumen rivers. These rivers were in Korea, which Japan had considered to be in its sphere of influence ever since the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-’95. But Tokyo at this time believed they could not defeat Russia militarily and so Prime Minister Ito Hirobumi attempted to open negotiations through the Russian embassy and Russian foreign minister Count Vladimir N. Lambsdorff, but the Russians plainly ignored them. Japan wanted Korea while Russia could keep Manchuria, but the Russians didn’t think much of Japan, a racist, arrogant attitude which had seeped into the leadership of the army too. The result was a declaration of war from Japan in February 1904 and Tsar Vladimir III in turn sacked a number of his advisors out of anger because they had told him there would be no war.

Japanese forces occupied Korea before the start of April and routed Russia’s garrisons on the northern banks of the Yalu and Tumen rivers. They crossed these rivers quickly as Japanese generals knew time was of the essence because otherwise the Russians would mobilize their entire enormous army and squash them. They captured Mukden, Shaho and Liaoyang, destroyed Russian armies there and inflicted another serious defeat while general Kuropatkin struggled to fight back with mounting casualties and hold Inner Manchuria. The thought that Japan was inferior had now been dispelled after these victories and loss of face for the Russians, but Tsar Vladimir III wouldn’t tolerate defeat. Japanese forces also attacked Port Arthur in July. The city and naval base was garrisoned by 60.000 men and 650 artillery guns commanded by Baron Anatoly Stoessel while Japan brought to bear 90.000 men. The Japanese navy tried to employ a close blockade, but coastal artillery and sea mines forced admiral Togo to choose for a wide blockade. Defences of Port Arthur had been improved over the past few years with a multi-perimeter layout with overlapping fields of fire from redoubts and fortifications of machineguns and artillery, a strong bulwark. The Japanese attacked Russian trenches and fortifications a number of times, but were rebuffed by artillery and ferocious machinegun fire. They were forced to besiege the city. Improvements in infrastructure such as the Trans-Siberian railroad enabled a relatively quick response. While Russian and Japanese troops engaged in brutal, vicious trench warfare at Port Arthur, vice admiral Makarov decided to break the blockade and leave for Vladivostok. He wisely chose to go around Japan instead of through the Straits of Tsushima so close to Japan and so avoided battle. In the night of August 13th 1904, he made his Pacific Dash and broke through the blockade with his fleet of pre-dreadnoughts and cruisers out to open sea while the Japanese were confused and lost two cruisers and several destroyers to Russian gunfire in the chaos. The Siege of Port Arthur remained a bloody massacre as machinegun and artillery fire mowed down Japanese and both sides engaged in brutal bayonet duels and fistfights in the trenches. It was worsened when autumn set in and the weather changed.

While Makarov made his way to Vladivostok with the Imperial Japanese Navy looking for him, reinforcements arrived for general Alexei Kuropatkin. Troop trains from European Russia arrived with 800.000 men, artillery, horses, ammunition, weapons and food stuffs. They attacked Liaoyang and Mukden to retake the railroad junction there and through sheer weight of numbers they beat the Japanese. After heavy resistance and a bloody battle, the Siege of Port Arthur was lifted in October although it came at a price. Japanese soldiers were ingrained with a “no surrender, fight to the death” stance and with no ammo they would continue to fight with samurai swords and carry out their infamous banzai charges. After the Second Battle of Mukden, Japanese troops were slowly pushed back to Korea as the Russian Bear grinded forward. The Japanese were decisively defeated and retreated to the Yalu and Tumen rivers where they mounted a stubborn defence and killed many Russian soldiers. It was, however, still the Japanese who requested an armistice first. The war had not gone nearly as well as predicted and protests had erupted with people demanding peace. The Russian giant had been temporarily tired as well in a less than popular war with high casualty rates, showing that the Russian army still needed work if it was to reach western standards. Nonetheless, the sturdiness of the new Russia had been proven as it was now able to project a significant amount of force across Eurasia. In the Treaty of Vladivostok, Russia recognised Japanese suzerainty over Korea which they would formally annex in 1910. Inner Manchuria was recognised as being in the Russian sphere of influence (and they established a protectorate) and the Russians took their opportunity to annex Outer Mongolia. This was recognised by Japan and Russia and peace was made in February 1905. A prelude to the Great War could have been seen in this by the European powers, but they didn’t think much of it since the final outcome was what they had expected. It did have the effect of bringing Japan into the deadly imperialistic dance of the alliances. Japan now held a grudge against Russia and had proven to its British ally it was a worthy pawn to contain Russian ambitions if need be.

The outcome was a boost in confidence for the pro-reformist faction under Tsar Vladimir III and his reform-minded ministers Pyotr Stolypin and Sergei Witte who continued modernizations against the wishes of the Russian nobility, but to the benefit of Russia as a whole. Russia was growing closer to western standards and confidence and nationalism in the new Russia were stronger than ever, more so with the proof of Russian military might, even if the army still needed work. This was the most difficult aristocratic privilege to challenge as nobles held the majority of the high ranks in the officers corps which had been the status quo for centuries now. This had to change to make improvements. The Tsar implemented a new promotion system based on skill and competence over the old system of promotion based on noble descent and seniority. This way, at least half the officers corps would be competent by the time the Great War broke out in 1913. This newfound belief in Russian strength and Russia retaking its place as a dominant world power, starting with Alexander II, explains why St. Petersburg so boldly entered the greatest conflict until then.

The war had its origins in the Balkans and the situation in the seemingly crumbling Ottoman Empire. Italy at this time was looking to expand its colonial empire which at this time only consisted of two small possessions on the Horn of Africa, Eritrea and Somalia. Libya, an Ottoman province, had vaguely been recognised as belonging to the Italian sphere of influence since the 1878 Berlin Conference and Italy wanted to capitalize on this. They demanded that the Porte turned over the three provinces of Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica (which constituted Libya) because Italian immigrants lived there, but Constantinople rejected these demands and a war was born. Despite ample time, the Regio Esercito (Italian Royal Army) was not fully prepared for war when they landed 1500 marines in Tripoli and took it, to the delight of the interventionist faction. Libya had been depicted a fantasy of it being well-watered, rich in mineral resources and lightly defended by 4.000 men (instead of 28.000, 8.000 Turks and 20.000 Bedouins and Arabs mobilized by the local commanders). An expeditionary force of 20.000 was therefore considered sufficient. Al Khums, Tobruk and Derna indeed all fell easily, but at Benghazi Italian forces ran into trouble when Turkish regulars and Arab cavalry surrounded them and nearly crushed the Italians while propaganda depicted it as a mere uprising. The expeditionary force was enlarged to 100.000 men and Italian forces cut off Ottoman supply lines and also occupied the Dodecanese Islands to control communications between Constantinople and Libya. In the 1912 Treaty of Lausanne signed on October 1st Italy gained the Dodecanese Islands and Libya. This war was the first modern war since it used modern communications and machine guns, but also armoured cars and air power (airships of the Regia Aeronautica bombed Ottoman positions). The importance of this war, however, was that it exposed the apparent weakness and disorganization of the Ottoman Empire, encouraging Balkan nationalism which the new Tsar, Cyril I who had ascended the throne in 1909, wholeheartedly supported. In October 1912, with the Italo-Turkish War barely over, the Balkan countries temporarily put their differences aside and so the Balkan League of Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece and Montenegro was formed with Russian support since they wanted their access to the Mediterranean Sea through the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. Germany and Austria-Hungary by this time were actively supporting the Ottomans. After the Russo-Japanese War, Germany had consistently tried to prop up the Porte against Russia which was an Entente enemy. Major Central Powers arms produces like Krupp and Skoda equipped Ottoman troops with modern rifles, machine guns, artillery and the Ottomans attempted to reorganize their army to the Prussian model. In 1911, at the Italian invasion, they had been halfway in this reform which explains their mixed performance. With the conclusion of the Italo-Turkish War, the reforms had been almost finished, but they had been too late to change the situation. Now they would test their worth against the Balkan powers, including Bulgaria, the so-called “Prussia of the Balkans”. Bulgaria could mobilize some 600.000 men in wartime out of population of 4.3 million.

Bulgarian forces advanced into Thrace and the Greeks went into Macedonia which was Greek dominated. Ottoman forces were outnumbered by those of the Balkan League, but significant investment from Germany which was a large industrial power and steel producer had expanded the railroad network to 55.000 kilometres in Anatolia and Thrace alone, not to mention Mesopotamia and the Levant. Improvements in communications and transport allowed for more effective transport and warfare and so extra troops were sent to the Balkan territories by the Ottomans. Moreover, German military advisors accompanied Ottoman commanders in the field, which irritated the Russians. Ottoman troops in northern Greece held defensive lines and mountain forts and passes remarkably well considering the numerical disparity. Bulgarian forces fought at Adrianople where they encountered entrenched Ottoman forces. Trenches with barbed wire, minefields, machinegun nests, bunkers and redoubts inflicted heavy casualties almost immediately while Greek forces on the Epirus front grinded to a halt too. The result was the First Battle of Adrianople from October to December 1912 which ended in a massacre with 100.000 casualties which introduced trench warfare to the conflict which for now only was a localized war. Only Serbia and Montenegro scored successes in their conquests of Kosovo and the port city of Skadar respectively while fuelling the Albanian independence which then declared independence from the Ottoman Empire in February 1913 (while Greece managed to take some Aegean Islands due to bumbling of the Ottoman admiralty).

Russia at this time demanded that the Ottoman Empire released its Christian subjects which chafed under a yoke of the Turks. Russia threatened to openly intervene to which the Sultan responded by signing a defensive alliance with Germany and Austria-Hungary which would prove to be one of the major catalysts of the war along with Russia’s uncompromising attitude and the willingness of France and Britain to partake in the war (after the Second Moroccan Crisis). France and Britain had wavered between propping up the Porte to keep Russia away from the Bosporus and making plans to carving it up and they had decidedly moved to the latter position by 1913 as the alliances had crystallized into their final forms. The Ottomans at this time used chlorine gas against Bulgarian trenches in the Second Battle of Adrianople which began in April 1913. An initial breakthrough was made and the Bulgarians were forced to regroup further back, but Russia declared war in May 1913 as a result since they classified this as a “war crime” (the first use of the term in its current meaning). Russian forces attacked into the Caucasus Mountains which would prove to be a bloody front. Alpine warfare soon ensued among the snowy peaks. Many would die in the bloody stalemate here after Russian forces grinded to a halt, more so in the winter months when many soldiers on both sides would perish due to the cold, frostbite, gangrene and lack of proper winter clothing, quarters and decent food. No offensives would succeed here and the front would grind back and forth a few hundred metres at a time for tens of thousands of dead. The result of Russian intervention was that Germany and Austria-Hungary declared war in support of the Ottoman Empire against Russia and the Balkan League powers, partially because they wanted to curb Russia’s rise and end their influence in the Balkans, and because Germany believed it could now finally claim its place under the sun at the expense of the British Empire and France. Italy remained surprisingly neutral while France and Britain fulfilled their obligations to their ally, Russia, and declared war on the Central Powers to stop Germany’s rise which had already overtaken both countries’ position as the great powers of Europe. The Great War had begun.
 
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Very interesting story idea. I'm curious to see what happens next. The story does seem to have preciously little butterflies up until now, but maybe that's just me being mistaken.
 
Very interesting story idea. I'm curious to see what happens next. The story does seem to have preciously little butterflies up until now, but maybe that's just me being mistaken.

Mmm, Russia "won" the RJW, WW I starts in 1913 and I screwed a little with the dates of the Italo-Turkish War and the result of the Boxer Rebellion. Oh and Russia has different Tsars. Those butterflies eem significant.

Thanks for the compliment though :D. It will get more interesting... ;)
 

Vince

Monthly Donor
I would think a heavily industrialized Russia with a more advanced army would be able to steamroll most of its opponents.
 
How deep are the reforms?

Only economic or social too?

Its the Duma a bit more democratic? (aka there are elections even manipulated ones? )

You made a small mistake, starting the RJ war in 1910 and ending it in 05
by Japan and Russia and peace was made in February 1905.

All and all, an interesting story OW ... keep it up
 
1. Take that, evil Japanese upstarts!

To be honest, the Russians probably needed numbers for confidence and options, but didn't need "sheer weight" considering that OTL's 40-year-old reservists inflicted more casualties on Japanese troops than they lost themselves. Regular troops would fare better. The RJW was lost at the level of the generals, and certainly on the sea, but the sea is much healthier with Makarov alive and the Baltic fleet in the Pacific.

This TL needed some propaganda pictures, badly :p

2. The Great War is very OTL-ish, but once again the Russians seem to be doing poorly (esp. comparing to OTL WW1 where Russia's Caucasian front was once again not composed of the best divisions, and stripped of manpower compared to the Polish front). So that leaves me to conclude that whatever the Ottomans are bringing in 1913 is regular troops that are better than what Enver had OTL, with much better supplies.

Which means their other fronts aren't going to be as well-defended as OTL.

3. Russia seems a little suicidal, however. I bet you they've got armies in the Balkans as well, just asking to be cut off by A-H.

4. Whither Serbia in regard to A-H?
 
How deep are the reforms?

Only economic or social too?

Its the Duma a bit more democratic? (aka there are elections even manipulated ones? )

You made a small mistake, starting the RJ war in 1910 and ending it in 05

All and all, an interesting story OW ... keep it up

Economic and social reform although both are difficult. By 1900 or so the nobility sees that the reforms are good for them too though. And yes, there are elections for the Duma every six years for all male citizens aged 21 or older. Around now, the Duma with the strong mass parties on one side and the Tsar and aristocracy are working by means of cooperation and consultation and "quid pro quo".

1. Take that, evil Japanese upstarts!

To be honest, the Russians probably needed numbers for confidence and options, but didn't need "sheer weight" considering that OTL's 40-year-old reservists inflicted more casualties on Japanese troops than they lost themselves. Regular troops would fare better. The RJW was lost at the level of the generals, and certainly on the sea, but the sea is much healthier with Makarov alive and the Baltic fleet in the Pacific.

This TL needed some propaganda pictures, badly :p

2. The Great War is very OTL-ish, but once again the Russians seem to be doing poorly (esp. comparing to OTL WW1 where Russia's Caucasian front was once again not composed of the best divisions, and stripped of manpower compared to the Polish front). So that leaves me to conclude that whatever the Ottomans are bringing in 1913 is regular troops that are better than what Enver had OTL, with much better supplies.

Which means their other fronts aren't going to be as well-defended as OTL.

3. Russia seems a little suicidal, however. I bet you they've got armies in the Balkans as well, just asking to be cut off by A-H.

4. Whither Serbia in regard to A-H?

Yes, the Ottoman bring better troops to bear (thanks to German help). The GW, however, will be different from OTL. Russia is much more heavily industrialized and closing on Germany and has a decent officers corps due to the reforms. Due to industrialization, the army is better equipped and transport is much quicker due to an extensive railroad network. A different system of promotion (mentioned in the update) has ensured a better quality offcers corps. And the European war will receive attention in the next update, it hasn't begun yet and their armies are not in the Balkans yet. Russia will fare differently from OTL. Point #4 beats me, what does it mean?:confused:

So it's these two alliances (for now ;)):

Russia, France, Britain, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro and Greece

vs.

Germany, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire

This is as of the declaration of war in May 1913 when the last update ended/
 
OK, here it is, the Great War. Does anyone have anyone suggestions for a peace treaty after this war? Anyway, I hope you enjoy it and like how
Russia's reforms turned out :).


Chapter II: The Great War, 1913 – 1915.



The Balkan War which had begun as a regional war had now dragged the continent into a general European war which would become known as the Great War. The Germans immediately set their war plan known as the Von Schlieffen Plan in motion. The plan entailed a wide manoeuvre through Belgium to avoid the heavily defended Franco-German border, breaking Belgium’s neutrality, but also surprising the French and poor little Belgium. German border troops on the left wing would simply defend and fall back if need be, luring the French away from the main event and ensuring that they got encircled as the right wing took Paris. The plan was based on the correct assumption that the French would position their main force in the Belfort-Sedan region for an offensive to retake Alsace-Lorraine which they had lost to Germany in 1871. A second assumption was that France’s Russian allies would mobilize in six weeks, and this was a faulty assumption. The massive expansions of the Russian railroads under Alexander II and his successors allowed for a much more efficient and faster mobilization of the massive Russian army. Russia fielded some 1.1 million men in peacetime alone and could bring to bear millions more to fight this war for a total of 15 million Russian men under arms when war erupted in May 1913. In any case, German forces invaded Belgium while Russia prepared for its westward thrust. Belgian forces resisted heavily and their forts around Liège held up the German advance for over a week until heavy 350 and 420 mm siege howitzers arrived. From there, the Germans advanced rapidly and the small Belgian army couldn’t stop them. The speed of the advance, however, wore German soldiers down and the limited infrastructure in Belgium hampered adequate supply for a total of seven field armies. Namur fell in three days on May 20th and Antwerp was bypassed while the capital of Brussels was declared a free city by the Belgian government. French offensives into Alsace-Lorraine advanced well initially, but were forced to standstill at Strasbourg where the Germans scored a victory and gave the French a bloody nose.

While a six division British Expeditionary Force arrived and German forces crossed into northern France, pushing French forces back steadily by the end of May, less than a month after the start of the conflict, Russia attacked. A massive artillery bombardment started on May 25th and millions of men started to move. The Russian general staff recognised the need to fight Germany and Austria-Hungary first because their armies could cut off any Russian armies sent to the Balkans. Only 10% of the entire German army was stationed in the east to defend the eastern border so it was a weakly defend area. Russian forces defeated German troops in the so-called Masurian Lakes campaign in East Prussia. The Russians deployed a lot of cavalry which was logical on such a large front, larger than the relatively confined space in northern France. With wide sweeping cavalry movements, large numbers and multiple offensives in parallel and in succession, the Russians overwhelmed the heavily outnumbered Eighth Army and Königsberg, the East Prussian capital, was taken by Russian forces on June 15th. At this point, Eighth Army commander general Von Prittwitz panicked and advocated a retreat to the Vistula or even the Oder. The German general staff hardly approved of this and had him replaced with General Von Hindenburg who came with five new corps as Russian forces destroyed Austro-Hungarian forces at Przemýsl and its fortresses and Kraków and quickly captured them, a shattering defeat for Habsburg forces. Austro-Hungarian forces were divided between squashing Serbian forces in order to put an end to their ambitions for a South Slav Kingdom and fighting the Russians. Believing the Germans would cover them, the majority of Austro-Hungarian forces were located on the Balkan front to link up with Ottoman forces. Austro-Hungarian forces had defeated the Serbs in the Battle of Cer and ran over their defences. The better part of their forces were located south in Kosovo to fight the Ottomans while Habsburg armies advanced across the Drina and Sava rivers to Belgrade and the Morava river valley. Three out of seven Habsburg armies were focused on Serbia by general Potiorek and commander in chief Von Hötzendorff, a big mistake made due to miscommunication with Germany and so they had to forsake a push for Belgrade in favour of defending against Russia. German forces on the western front grinded to a halt as they had too few forces to decisively beat the French and the Von Schlieffen plan came apart as German forces dug themselves in on a line running from Ostend to Strasbourg, still far from Paris. Belgium, Luxembourg and part of northern France had been largely overrun and the situation stabilized. Strong and numerically superior Russian forces continued to advance and newly appointed commander of the Eighth Army Von Hindenburg couldn’t stop their advance. Russian forces were numerically superior and qualitatively decent enough with an on par NCO corps. German troops, in spite of reinforcements, waged a fighting retreat to the Vistula river which the Russians reached in August. Unexpected Russian strength had led to the failure of the initial war plans of the Central Powers’ High Commands who now saw themselves faced with the prospect of a long war which they might lose, considering the pressure from west and east they were under. Moreover, Germany had to prop up two second-rate allies, Austria-Hungary and the Sublime Porte.

The effectiveness of the reforms showed in the shape of a much more capable Russian army which was able to take on the German army, then the best army on the continent by any standards. The front stabilized on the Vistula and so East Prussia and part of West Prussia were occupied as well as Galicia. The situation was not very good for the Central Powers with less than the expected gains in France and losses of territory in the east although the Ottomans fared better with Serb and Montenegrin forces now facing Austria-Hungary. The renewed strength of Russia due to the reforms set in motion by Alexander II and followed upon by Vladimir III and Cyril I had shown their worth to all the sceptics, largely the aristocracy, and has also dispelled any lingering perceptions of Russia as a retarded and backward country, not really European and also not really Asian either, but definitely not on par with the western powers. Russia was now definitely on par with western Europe. It’s not said that the Germans accepted this turn of events and the Eighth Army under Hindenburg launched a number of counteroffensives, big and small, between September and November which didn’t change the overall strategic situation in the second half of 1913 although Germany did have some minor victories. With Russian forces on the Vistula and bloody trench warfare from Ostend to Strasbourg 1913 ended and 1914 started and this year would see three new parties enter the war: Italy, Romania and Japan.

Italy was one of the Central Powers, but didn’t declare war since they were only bound to do so in the event of aggression against the Central Powers. Instead, Germany and Austria-Hungary had declared war on Russia, and Italy didn’t really feel liken fighting on the same side as the Habsburgs who still held Italian minorities under their thumb. Emperor Franz Josef had refused to cede ethnically Italian regions to Italy so far and so Italy maintained pro-Entente neutrality. France, Russia and Britain started to open secret talks with Rome about possible Italian entry into the war in return for which Italy would see its irredentist claims settled in the peace treaty as well as a piece of the Ottoman pie. The prospect of uniting all Italians was very attractive and Rome wasn’t unwilling to listen to Entente proposals, more so since the Entente powers seemed to have a good chance of winning. The Italian army was in bad shape, a paper tiger in fact, and the Italians knew it, but the Austrians were already tied down on other fronts and were quite confident. Italy declared war on the Central Powers in February 1914 which put Austria-Hungary in the position of having to fight a three front war against Russia, Italy, Serbia and Montenegro. Italian forces landed in Albania to support the Entente’s Balkan allies and Italian forces attacked into the Isonzo River valley in the hopes of decisively beating the Austrians early on by penetrating through the valley into Carniola and Styria and then advance toward the Habsburg capital of Vienna which was rather optimistic to say the least, considering the lacklustre state of Italy’s army. This First Battle of the Isonzo failed to penetrate deeply into Austro-Hungarian territory, but it did force the unstable Double Monarchy to spread its efforts by diverting vital forces from the Galician and Balkan fronts to the Alpine border with Italy which would see some brutal mountain warfare, compounded by snow, cold and disease during the winter months and mud flows in the spring months. The result was increased strain on the patchwork of ethnicities that was Austria-Hungary. Hundreds of thousands or even millions of Italian men were called under arms as the siren call of nationalism sounded and even forced the socialists into grudging neutrality or in some case open support of the patriotic cause. The thought of uniting the Italian people appealed to many romantic nationalists, but the war would be not what they thought. Their first confrontation in the First Battle of the Isonzo had cost Italy 20.000 men for a Pyrrhic victory over a force they outnumbered two to one and which had suffered less than 10.000 casualties. Austria-Hungary at this time redeployed a number of soldiers worth an entire army group to the Alpine front where a bloody stalemate set in. This nonetheless worked to the benefit of Russia and by extension the Entente. The Entente powers themselves launched a number of large scale offensives in the west in 1914. These failed to radically change the situation, but did force Germany to divert more troops to northern France, forcing Austria-Hungary to fend more for itself with little German support. The western front saw some small scale victories, but no decisive defeat of Germany. The Germans launched counteroffensives and added to the massacre, most notably in the Battles of Ostend and Mulhouse in spring and summer 1914. The Germans used chlorine gas as a way of chemical warfare in both and it seemed the war would be mobile again, but the Entente regained its composure and German gains were minimal.

Another European country that would enter the fray was Romania. Despite having a king of German descent, the little Balkan kingdom was at odds with Austria-Hungary which still held a sizeable Romanian minority under its thumb in Transylvania. They had therefore declined to fight on the side of the Central Powers who offered them Bulgarian territory and Bessarabia for when the war was over. Romania had an army of some 500.000 men which were decently led, but not well equipped with aging equipment and not as well led as the German and Austro-Hungarian armies. They, however, saw themselves supported by the Russian bear which seemed to be doing well. Coinciding with the June offensive at Ypres, Russian forces inflicted another defeat upon Habsburg armies and retook Lemberg which Austro-Hungarian forces had briefly retaken in a minor counteroffensive in January. Galicia and Bukovina were now almost completely in Russian hands. Emboldened by the seemingly pending Austro-Hungarian collapse, Romania declared war on the Central Powers in April 1914. The Russian strategy was now to cooperate with Romania, Serbia, Montenegro and Italy to knock out Austria-Hungary first, much to the dismay of the western allies who preferred a Germany-first strategy to alleviate the western front. Russia had initially followed their lead, but they saw how an Austria-first strategy would work to their benefit and the benefit of the entire Entente. If Austria-Hungary, Germany’s main ally, crumbled, Germany would ask for terms or so the Russians expected and it would allow the Russians to assist the Bulgarians and Greeks against the Ottomans more directly than through sending aid by sea and fighting a far away Alpine war in the Caucasus mountains. The war was turning against the Central Powers. The last power to join the war was Japan which had so far remained neutral in spite of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, partially out of resentment toward Russia. Seeing an opportunity, Japan seized Germany’s Pacific islands and their Chinese concession at Qing Dao in July 1914 since it was clear that Germany was too preoccupied in Europe to prevent them from doing so. The Germans responded to the turning tide by unleashing unlimited submarine warfare on Britain. It was hoped that Britain would be knocked out this way and that the French and Russians would request peace also. Indeed, the U-boats sank a large tonnage of merchant shipping headed for Britain which carried vital supplies such as food, gunpowder, resources and other things needed to wage war. The result was tight rationing which caused a stir, but not the predicted collapse. Britain’s economy was also hurt by a chronic lack of raw materials caused by this, but continued to function. Britain continued the war and fought the Second Battle of Ypres from October 1914 to January 1915 which had a shocking total death toll of 320.000 men (for both sides, partially caused by further use of chlorine gas and mustard gas by both sides). The deadly trench war continued unabated.

The Italians acted somewhat uncoordinated with their allies, like most countries had done at the beginning of the war, but the Russians managed to get the message of the new Austria-first strategy through clearly. Even France and Britain saw the benefits. With the Germans tied down in the seemingly endless quagmire that was the muddy, hellish trench war of Ypres, Russia, Italy and the Balkan powers launched their own offensives. On October 23rd 1914, several weeks into the Second Battle of Ypres in Belgium, 1.5 million well fed, fully equipped and motivated Russians attacked into Slovakia to help the Slavs throw off the Habsburg yoke (according to nationalist propaganda). Romanian forces launched an offensive into Transylvania while Serbian troops marched into Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegrin forces with Italian support advanced into Dalmatia. Italy attacked into the Isonzo River valley again for what was the Third Battle of the Isonzo for them. Chaos erupted as Austro-Hungarian army commanders had to stop the flood of Russian, Italian, Romania, Serbian and Montenegrin armies. This was compounded by the fact that Germany could offer little help and also because some Romanian, Slovakian Croat and Bosnian units started to mutiny and desert to the enemy. The Hungarians harshly put these stirrings down, but this and their Magyarization policies had decisively alienated these peoples from them and so they fuelled more unrest. Russian forces did well and broke Austro-Hungarian defences. They started to advance down the Tisza river by December, threatening to split the country in half. Romanian soldiers took Transylvania, the Serbs liberated Sarajevo and Italian forces were barely contained as they fought a bloody struggle on the Isonzo river. Austria-Hungary could not contain all these offensives at once and drew troops away from all fronts to just contain the surge of Russians and Italians now as they threatened to split the country and take Vienna respectively and because it was believed that the Romanian, Serb and Montenegrin offensives would falter without their protectors. It didn’t have the desired effect. The state machinery of the multiethnic empire started to disintegrate and the various ethnicities rose up against Habsburg rule. Only the Austrians and Hungarians remained loyal to the Kaiser and most of the Czechs because they were offered co-ruler status if they fought for the Habsburgs, but were powerless to stop the empire from falling to pieces. With Russian and Romanian forces breaking through the Carpathians, they entered the Hungarian plains and advanced up the Danube and threatened to obliterate Austro Hungarian forces at Budapest in a large pincer. With total collapse and anarchy near, Austria-Hungary announced to the world that it was no longer capable of resisting militarily. Therefore Vienna requested an armistice in February 1915 and so the venerable Habsburg Empire came to an end, to the outrage of Berlin and Constantinople.

Russian armies were now free to fight in the Balkans and hundreds of thousands were free to fight Germany too. Germany now saw itself faced with an impossible strategic situation. There was no way to decisively knockout any of the Entente countries and their Ottoman allies were too far away to assist. Russian and Bulgarian armies squashed them in the Fifth Battle of Adrianople in April 1915 and Italian armies freed from the Alpine Front were sent to assist Greece and Serbia. Moreover, Austria-Hungary descended into chaos and Germany sent troops to occupy Cisleithania (except for Russian occupied Galicia). The naval theatre didn’t look to good either with a continued British naval blockade. The German East Asia Squadron had been destroyed although they had taken some British ships with them. The general staff decided on a last-ditch offensive in the west since they believed the war would still be decided there. In the third and last battle of Ypres in May 1915, they attacked with 180.000 men with some new tactics. They were called infiltration tactics. Small heavily armed teams would infiltrate the weaker parts of the enemy with machineguns and flamethrowers after only a short artillery bombardment to keep the element of surprise and under cover of a creeping barrage. Regular infantry would then take out the stronger points in the enemy line. The offensive scored some success in capturing Hazebrouck, but failed to get anywhere close to Calais or Dunkirk. This caused some supply disruptions for the Entente on the western front, but the defeat had not been decisive enough. At the same time the High Seas Fleet set sail to confront the British Grand Fleet at sea even though they knew they couldn’t win. Russian troops made the situation worse as they attacked and took Danzig as well. The German navy was defeated and lost eight out of seventeen dreadnoughts while Britain lost a surprising six out of twenty-five. Counteroffensives by the Entente led to a collapse of the western front as troops went east to defend the Oder. The front collapsed and in mid-July Brussels was liberated and Russian troops reached the Oder. Confronted with clear and decisive defeat, the German Empire too requested an armistice on July 25th. The Ottomans who had lost their Balkan territories and saw Constantinople besieged, surrendered too. The Great War was finally over after two years and 5.5 million deaths.
 
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This is a map of th coalitions of the war in their final forms.

WW I (Alexander II).jpg
 
*shocked* Did you just make Germany be... defeated? It's impossible!

Sarcasm aside, very good update. As for the peace treaty, I'd say that Russia gains Posen and Galicia, along with some Ottoman territories (not sure what). Italy gains her irredentist goals while Serbia annexes at least B-H and possibly Croatia too. Not sure what would happen to Austria and Hungary (oh, and give Transsylvania to Romania). I mean, TTL Entente might have some different views on what happens to the Austrians than their OTL counterparts. Maybe a Russian puppet Czechoslovakia (or puppet Czechia and Slovakia) and Austria plus the Sudetenland being merged into a Habsburg-ruled nation that will be allowed to have a plebiscite over joining Germany (but not right now). With no nasty USA in the way which insists on moderate and legitimate gains, France might as well annex the Saarland (and Luxemburg?) besides A-L and set up the Rhineland as a puppet buffer state (maybe as compensation for allowing the Anschluss to happen). Not sure what would happen in the east besides this, but I doubt that Russia would annex West- or East-Prussia. However, they might take some parts. IOTL, Warmia and Masuria harboured a large Polish community, but the areas decided to stay with Germany. ITTL, though, I think the Tsar could care less about what plebiscites say...

Also, some alternative divisions when it concerns Germany's colonies might be interesting, too. East-Africa probably has a stronger position than IOTL due to the shorter war. It might be kept by Germany, considering how little value it has. Also, it would be nice and original if the Italians would acquire something, too. They did contribute in the war effort, after all.
 
Update time. I hope you enjoy it :D.



Chapter III: Peace and The Treaty of Colchester, 1915 – 1939.


The war was now over and peace needed to be made once more. A deal had to be handed to the defeated powers, but first a location for the negotiations had to be decided upon. The British suggested Colchester which was an acceptable location for all the parties involved and now the task of restructuring Europe and kicking Germany down a notch could begin. The delegations from both the victorious powers and the defeated powers arrived and so the peace conference and its sometimes heated debates which would last from August 1915 to January 1916 could begin. Delegations came from Great Britain, France, Russia, Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, Japan, Belgium, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia gathered in one of the largest conferences of its kind. With all these diplomats and world leaders gathered in one place it was the symbol of Big Diplomacy and the comparison with the 1814-1815 Congress of Vienna was often made although it didn’t fully compare, neither in the magnitude of the restructuring implemented nor in the sheer power level of the states convened. The first issue for the victors was to cut down Germany to a more acceptable level of strength since growing German economic and military strength frightened both France and Britain who had seen themselves eclipsed as leading powers. The war, however, hadn’t been that long and the humiliation of clear and total defeat had already humbled the Germans and so the Entente powers were relatively lenient even if Berlin didn’t perceive it that way at the time. The first issue was Alsace-Lorraine as the French were adamant about its return to the Fatherland and since the war had been won, France could do as it pleased. Alsace-Lorraine was returned to France while the colonial empire of Germany were also stripped from her, curbing any imperialist dreams. Togo and Cameroon were given to France, Tanganyika to Britain, German South West Africa (Namibia) to Italy, Germany’s Pacific islands and Qing Dao to Japan and New Guinea to Australia. Besides these territorial changes, Britain added a naval section to the treaty which dictated a 2:1 ratio in capital warships in favour of Britain (in other words, Germany was not allowed to possess more than half the number of capital warships that Britain had. Capital warships were ill-defined here as battleships and battlecruisers). A clause was added for war indemnities to be paid by Germany which amounted to 12 billion Gold Marks and the Rhineland was to be demilitarized. Lastly, the Saarland would be occupied by France for twenty years to help France’s economic recovery.

Next the conference turned to the second large Central Powers combatant, Austria-Hungary, which was in chaos. Russia would now end any undue Viennese influence in the Balkan and weaken Austria-Hungary to the level of a subdued middle power permanently. The situation in Austria-Hungary itself was close to anarchy as Austrian and Hungarian armies tried to put down the stirrings of the Empire’s minorities while German troops occupied Cisleithania in order to prevent disintegration. The Austro-Hungarian delegation was out to get the best peace possible as fast as they could so they could turn inward and solve their various ethnic problems. Russia could now realize its Pan-Slavic ideals and they were bent on doing so now that the Habsburg Empire lay prostrate at their feet. Galicia, Carpathian Ruthenia and Bukovina were granted to Russia in the peace treaty as Austria-Hungary was powerless to resist any territorial claims. Romania was given Transylvania over protests from the sizeable ethnic Hungarian minority living there and so the Romanians there joined the fatherland. South Tyrol, the Austrian Littoral, Istria and Dalmatia were carved off the Habsburg domains by Italy, settling all of Italy’s irredentist claims on Austro-Hungarian territory and putting all the Italians in Rome’s fold while also boosting Italian nationalism and confidence. Slovenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and the remainder of Croatia were united with Serbia on Russia’s insistence, thereby fulfilling Serbia’s dream of a South Slav Kingdom and carrying out the agenda of the Pan-Slav lobby in St. Petersburg. In accordance with the peace treaty, German forces left Cisleithania and Vienna was left to sort out its complex problems which would consume all of its time and military might. The end of hostilities could do the now reduced rump Austro-Hungarian Empire nothing but good. Almost immediately issues flared up in Czechia about language education reform which would lead a series of parliamentary crises and protests from the Czechs. Austria-Hungary, always dependent on Germany, was now even more dependent on their German allies than before. The credibility of the Empire had taken a serious blow, even in the eyes of many of its Hungarian and Austrian subjects, and had weakened it too. During the German intervention, Pan-German ideas had taken a new upsurge and in Hungary there were some sentiments that independence might be better than the incompetent policies from Vienna which had cost the Kingdom of Hungary a lot of its traditional lands; and then there was the Czech issue. Successor to the throne Franz Ferdinand had manifested the intention to grant the Czechs co-ruler status in the Empire and create a Triple Monarchy which was against Hungarian interests since it would diminish their power and influence. This increased doubts about continuing the empire as the Hungarians didn’t want Czechs telling them what to do. For now Austria-Hungary remained intact as a volatile mix of ethnic groups and was tolerated since the victors agreed that a unified Austria-Hungary was better than a smattering of small, bickering national homelands.

In the meantime, the victors turned to the Ottoman Empire which should be cut down to size even more radically than the Austro-Hungarian Empire had been in the opinions of France, Britain and Russia to fulfil their territorial appetites. The Big Three as they were called envisioned a full-fledged partition of the Ottoman Empire and leaving a rump state in Asia Minor as their vassal in their moment of greed. Russia wanted the Bosporus, but here the British and French opposed St. Petersburg since they didn’t want a powerful Russia upsetting the balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and a certain friction arose between the victorious Entente powers who would squabble about this for the duration of the peace conference, but in order to keep the negotiations going, the great powers turned their attention to other matters, firstly their own territorial desires. Britain decided that it wanted a turf in Mesopotamia and so Iraq and Kuwait were set up as protectorates as well as the Hejaz. France took the opportunity as well and set up Syria and Lebanon as protectorates while Transjordan was awarded to Italy. Russia wasn’t going to get the Bosporus and as a consolation prize it was allowed to annex a swath of land in northern Persia around the Caspian Sea, making it a Russian lake. After this, the Big Three turned to award their smaller cobelligerents and settle the rather complex Balkan issue since the Balkan powers were already threatening to go to war against each other over the division of the territorial booty. Russia, France and Britain intervened and resolved to divide the spoils of war as fairly as possible, leaving each power with territory where their people formed an ethnic majority or at least a plurality. Greece gained Crete, most Aegean islands and Thessaly as well as the western Anatolian coastline where Greek minorities resided (the Turks here were expulsed with tacit assent from the great powers). Macedonia was divided between Greece and Bulgaria with the Enez-Edessa line as the border and Thrace became Bulgarian territory as well. Vardar Macedonia was awarded to Serbia thanks to Russia and this angered the Bulgarians who had their own plans for this area. Serbia also gained Kosovo and Italy annexed Albania, which their troops still occupied, as a reward for its efforts. To please the Russians and reach a liveable compromise, the Bosporus and the Dardanelles were made a joint Greco-Bulgarian protectorate which ensured Russia’s access to the Mediterranean and also made it possible for the great powers to bottle them up in the Black Sea if need be. Lastly, Montenegro was awarded the port of Skadar and decided to join in a confederal union with the new Kingdom of Croats, Serbs and Slovenes (colloquially known as Yugoslavia) in which they regulated most of their internal affairs, but not defence, foreign policy, currency and trade. This autonomy, however, would gradually be eroded away by the Serbs.

With this, the peace treaty was concluded and a period of peace and general prosperity for the victors could begin. It had strong effects in all countries. France was proud and the French rejoiced that France’s status as a great power had been reaffirmed while in Russia the last critics of the reforms of the past years were finally silenced. Britain was proud as well and could now begin to construct the Cape-to-Cairo railroad with Tanganyika in their hands. In Germany, however, many were angry with the defeat and the outcome of the war and pinned the blame on the elites and the aristocracy who still led Germany. Faith in their leadership had taken a blow (although the monarchy would survive the shock of defeat). The symbol of the incompetent old leadership was Emperor Wilhelm II who in a “palace coup” was forced to abdicate in favour of his son who was crowned Emperor Wilhelm III and was forced to enact more democratic reforms. In rump Austria-Hungary the crisis surrounding language education reform dragged on and the old Emperor Franz Josef was unable to solve it while tensions also lingered about whether or not the Czechs should be granted co-ruler status alongside Austria and Hungary. The Hungarians were opposed because they would lose influence and the Austrian Germans didn’t want their brethren in Bohemia to live under Czech rule. This was compounded by a recession which was caused by economic troubles in Germany, Austria-Hungary’s main trading partner. In the rump Ottoman Empire’s capital of Ankara, a republic was finally proclaimed and the last Sultan, Mehmed V, was forced to live out the remainder of his life in exile in Portugal. Germany sank into an economic malaise and political unrest continued as many people were dissatisfied with the peace treaty even though it was relatively lenient and Austria-Hungary experienced another bout of unrest in 1916 when Franz Josef passed away at the age of 86.

On the flipside, Russia, Britain and France enjoyed economic growth and affluence in the post-war period, especially Russia which was experiencing strong economic growth and industrialization, and was soon to overtake Germany as the leading economic powerhouse of Europe (making it the second industrial power of the world behind the US) which only added to Russia’s newfound self-confidence. The process of democratization continued in Russia under Tsar Cyril I as time passed and even some minorities were given a small measure of autonomy. Under pressure from the Duma the Ukrainians, Belarusians, Finns, the Baltic peoples and the Poles were given a small measure of autonomy by Cyril I although the government had oversight and veto powers. Generally, life was good with jobs for everyone, universal education, consumer products in abundance and the rise of the welfare state. In several countries (including Russia) the eight hour workday was instated and with the financial means to do so, social legislation was expanded to support the old, sick, disabled and unemployed. Europe remained the centre of the world and was faring well, but things were not so peaceful and affluent as it seemed since in the Balkan corner unrest simmered as old rivalries resurfaced now that the war was over.

Greece felt that the division of Macedonia had been unfair, while Bulgaria wanted to annex Vardar Macedonia from Serbia and Dobrudja from Romania with the latter also being at odds with Austria-Hungary because of the Hungarian minorities residing in Transylvania. The Kingdom of Croats, Slovenes and Serbs (or Yugoslavia) itself experienced internal tensions between Serbs on one hand and Croats and Slovenes on the other because the latter wanted more autonomy and there were tensions with Italy over Istria and Dalmatia too. Yugoslavia also wanted to add Albania to their territory, but it was now part of Italy, curbing their dream. The Serbs who dominated Yugoslavia felt confident in their new position of power and started to fare a more independent course from St. Petersburg which of course alienated the Russians, a big foreign policy mistake (they had also almost fully monopolized power within Yugoslavia at this time as well). Russia had wanted to set up Yugoslavia as their proxy in the Balkans to defend their interests there, but Yugoslavia shook off Russian tutelage and relations cooled. The initial post-war elation in St. Petersburg of the Pan-Slav lobby also notably died down. This earned Yugoslavia Russian scorn and anger and slowly but surely ties between the two countries were cut as Russia started to prop up Romania and Bulgaria. Russia even started to grow more friendly toward Austria-Hungary. Italy at this time had its own designs on Yugoslavia which involved breaking it up in smaller states which would ideally become Italian puppets and with the end of good relations between Belgrade and St. Petersburg the Russians gave their tacit assent although a different crisis interrupted and temporarily removed the lingering tensions in the Balkans from the spotlights.
 
Austria-Hungary had been tottering along ever since the war, barely staying together due to periodic bouts of instability, and was generally somewhat isolated from the rest of Europe, mostly because it had been rendered insignificant even if the Habsburgs didn’t recognise this. Franz Ferdinand I had succeeded Franz Josef as Emperor in 1916 and he had plans to reform the Empire to a more federal character. In 1924 he finally felt confident enough to take the first step and announced that the Czechs would be granted co-ruler status as a third kingdom, the Kingdom of Bohemia. The Hungarians were violently opposed and went head to head with Franz Ferdinand who stubbornly pressed his reforms through despite opposition. The result was that all the frustrations in Hungary about the defeat in the war, territorial losses, economic crisis and administrative dysfunction and incompetence came to an eruption. In Budapest, Hungary proclaimed its independence from the Habsburg monarchy as the Hungarian Republic which marked the beginning of a brief, but violent civil war as Vienna didn’t accept this, thus leading to chaos in central Europe which led to renewed fears for war as Germany, Italy and Russia wanted to intervene (but ultimately didn’t). Army units were sent to occupy Hungary, but they encountered stiff opposition from Hungarian troops who sided with Budapest. They managed to repulse Austrian forces and inflicted some serious defeats. Six months of bloody warfare in the trenches and tens of thousands of casualties (including many civilians as there was some ethnic cleansing) resulted. In the end though Vienna was forced to recognise the Hungarian Republic. The even further reduced Habsburg rump state now consisted only of Austria proper, Bohemia, Moravia and Austrian Silesia. This state continued as the Austrian Empire at first with the Czechs as co-rulers. Support for the Habsburgs, however, was waning as the Pan-German lobby rose again because, now that most of the non-Germans were gone, there was no reason not to join Germany. Many Austrian Germans no longer identified themselves with Austria-Hungary anyway and instead saw themselves as German. As far as they were concerned there were no differences between Austrian Germans and Germans in Germany and they wanted to join what they saw as their homeland and end this situation in which de facto two Germanies existed. The Czechs were opposed, but the Austrian Germans outnumbered them and so support for the Pan-German lobby grew (also partially motivated by Germany’s strong economic recovery, starting in the early 1920s). In Germany, most were open to the idea with only some minor concerns from Protestants who were worried about adding so many Catholics to Germany. These worries disappeared soon enough when the Austrian Reichstag dominated by Pan-German parties petitioned to join the German Empire (provided that they maintained certain privileges, much like Bavaria). The vote was not entirely unanimous as the Czechs voted against, but they didn’t have a majority and if they did, the Austrian Germans would have gone on without them. In 1925 Austria and Czechia were added to Germany over protests from Franz Ferdinand and the Czechs. Neither could change the overwhelming pro-German sentiment at the time.

This restored Germany’s national pride somewhat as they now were the most populated and largest country in central and western Europe with over 85 million inhabitants and an enormous military-industrial complex. Franz Ferdinand reluctantly accepted this turn of events and the Habsburgs were given a status similar to that of the Wittelsbachs in Bavaria. Franz Ferdinand became Archduke of Austria and King of Bohemia as a monarch within the German Empire. The French protested strongly against this as they once again lost their status of leading power in Europe. They were vociferous about it, but could do little against the decision of a democratically elected parliament. The old French hatred of Germany resurfaced as Germany became stronger and relations between the two countries reached a new low point. France responded by strengthening ties with Britain and reaffirming their alliance. The Czechs, in the meantime, were in for a nasty surprise as they had exchanged a rather weak dynastic overlord for a much stronger national one which didn’t have a lot of patience or tolerance for Czech antics. Czech nationalism was therefore stamped out ruthlessly by Berlin. The German also took the opportunity to stage some bombastic, nationalist display by proclaiming the Empire of Germany (as opposed to the German Empire), since pretty much all Germans were now united under one banner. Emperor Wilhelm III was crowned Emperor of the Germans in a lavish coronation ceremony in the Aachen Cathedral where the medieval kings of Germany had been crowned.

This crisis was almost immediately followed by the next one or so it seemed. Tensions flared up in the Balkans again because Bulgaria, Greece and Hungary wanted a revision of the borders as they had been drawn in the Treaty of Colchester. Bulgaria wanted Vardar Macedonia, Greece wanted a border revision in Macedonia and Hungary wanted several ethnically Hungarian territories such as Baranya, northern Backa and northern Vojvodina. If possible, they wanted parts of Transylvania back as well because some about a million Hungarians were still living there. Yugoslavia indignantly refused these demands of course. Bulgaria and Hungary therefore decided to declare war and Italy decided to jump on Yugoslavia as well since Russia no longer cared about them. And so the Third Balkan War erupted in October 1929. This war would be more modern than the last with more use of armour and air power and for Italy it was in part a test of its military strength after the Italians had revamped their army in the 1920s. Italian battleships, including two Tegetthoff class ships formerly belonging to the Austro-Hungarian navy, started to pummel Yugoslavia’s coastal defences. The Yugoslav Royal Navy consisted of some gunboats, destroyers, minelayers, submarines and a few river monitors. They were easily defeated while Italian forces invaded from the north and from Albania. The performance of the Regio Esercito and the Regia Aeronautica was less than hoped for, but nonetheless good. Cooperation between air power and ground forces was difficult and sometimes a little lacklustre. The Italians had only practiced with it so far and hadn’t actually fought a war in this way (uprisings in Libya were easily squashed with regular forces and it would be before long that Italians outnumbered the native Arabs and Bedouins anyway, making it the “Fourth Shore”, the same applied to Italian South West Africa, a colony with a small population). Serb forces resisted fiercely, but Croat and Slovene soldiers much less so. Many Croats and Slovenes didn’t want to fight for a Serb dominated state and were therefore unmotivated. Most of them defected or surrendered as soon as they saw the enemy. The Serbs fought for every square inch of land and entrenched themselves, but it wasn’t good enough to fight a multi-front war. Progress was slow nonetheless and casualties for the attackers were high. This was solved by the use of chemical weapons such as mustard gas and chlorine gas by Italy. By the end of the month, Hungarian forces reached the Sava river while the Italians had taken Bosnia and Kosovo. Bulgaria had occupied Vardar Macedonia. The Serbs fought on valiantly in their “national redoubt” of Serbia, but they were losing. Belgrade was occupied shortly hereafter. They surrendered in January 1930 after a desperate last stand and with most of their country occupied.

The war ended with the Treaty of Rome in which Yugoslavia was dismembered after a short existence of less than fifteen years. Hungary annexed northern Backa, northern Vojvodina and Baranya. Bulgaria took Vardar Macedonia for itself, settling its last irredentist claims. Italy annexed Kosovo and set up Montenegro up as a protectorate. Croatia became an independent state and in a plebiscite monarchy was chosen over republic. Prime contender for the throne was Prince Emanuele Filiberto, fourth duke of Aosta who was crowned King Emmanuel I of Croatia and his son Amedeo became crown prince while his brother Aimone became King of the Slovenes as Slovenia was now independent too. Bosnia was divided along rough ethnic lines with most of the majority Serb and Bosnian areas going to Serbia and the rest to Croatia. This ended the Third Balkan War and the great powers seized the moment to settle ethnic disputes in the Balkans once and for all to defuse further tensions (after all, it was here that the Great War had begun). Diplomats from Britain, France, Italy, Russia, Germany and the Balkan countries met in Sarajevo to make this happen. Firstly, the division of Yugoslavia as per the Treaty of Rome was reaffirmed. The powers also decided on a fairer division of Transylvania and awarded northern Transylvania with its sizeable Hungarian minority to Hungary, to the dismay of Romania, but the great powers offered help with a population transfer so that no Romanians would have to live under Hungarian rule. Bucharest reluctantly accepted this deal. Romania kept southern Transylvania as well as the eastern Banat with the western Banat being part of Serbia. The issues in Dobrudja were settled by a reaffirmation of the division of that region in north and south between Romania and Bulgaria. The great powers concluded the so-called “Sarajevo Accords” with the statement that they wouldn’t tolerate any more violent actions to settle border disputes, and encouraged population exchanges instead. This is what was called the “Sarajevo Doctrine”.

An unintended and often overlooked consequence for one of the participants of this war, Italy, was a boost in confidence which resulted in the Second Italo-Abyssinian War which was a quick victory and revenge for the humiliation of 1896 at Adwa. Abyssinia became a colony was ignored after that by the rest of the world while the Italians received another boost in confidence with their expanded colonial empire.

In Asia, things were changing too, especially when European influence temporarily weakened in the 1930s due to an economic recession caused by reckless overspending over the previous twenty years. The Qing Emperor who was a puppet propped up by the west was overthrown, leading to a power vacuum. Japan responded by invading the rest of the Shandong Peninsula (they already had Qing Dao). The Chinese army was divided between those loyal to the monarchy and those who supported the Republic of China. And then there were of course those generals who used their troops in a bid for power of their own. In the chaos, Japan invaded in 1933 and quickly established a puppet government in Nanking. They soon spread their influence to the provinces of Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian and thereby encroached on American interests there. The USA had markets in China which they now lost and so, under pressure from the Pro-Chinese lobby, the US instated an economic embargo. France, Britain and Russia saw their interests under threat and joined the embargo (even if it was unofficially and unenthusiastically in Britain’s case), although, unfortunately for the great powers, the effects of the embargo were mitigated or even negated by the discovery of the Shengli Oilfield in 1935. Within two years production had been set up and by 1937 the field was producing 500.000 barrels every day. The result was also that Britain and France withdrew from the embargo since it had no use and because Japan still had its uses.

Nonetheless, tensions rose in the Far East with Japan encroaching on Russia’s sphere of influence in Inner Manchuria and so a new crisis erupted as the young Russian Tsar Vladimir IV – who had succeeded his father in 1938 – steered Russia towards a confrontation. Russia demanded that the Japanese pulled their forces out of the region, which the Japanese simply refused. The result was a Russian declaration of war on October 21st 1939 and things quickly spiralled out of control from there. In the past two decades of peace, there had been quite some alienation between Russia on one hand and Britain and France on the other in spite of a number of shows of Entente solidarity such as joint celebrations of their victory in 1914. With no war and thus no necessity for the Entente to exist, old sores had returned. Moreover, Russia had eclipsed both Britain and France in terms of both military and economic power and Russia had steadily expanded its sphere of influence in the Middle East. A puppet Shah had been installed in Tehran after his predecessor had been noncompliant toward Russian desires and they had done sowithout Britain’s assent, leading to anger and heated debates between the two although cooler heads prevailed in the end. Russian forces had penetrated deeply into Afghanistan as well which was much too close to India for Britain’s comfort. Besides this, Russia had also managed to turn rump-Turkey into its vassal and had not given up the intention to directly control the Bosporus itself instead of through the Greco-Bulgarian protectorate. Also, Russia had bluntly annexed Xinjiang province in 1931 without consulting its allies and its influence in the Balkans had only increased since 1915, especially after the disintegration of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The Republic of China at this time was a Russian puppet against Japan and declared war after budding from St. Petersburg. Japan was still allied to Britain with the Anglo-Japanese Alliance which Tokyo dusted off for its purposes. Japan was now at war with more than one power and according to the treaty, Britain had to come to their aid against the Russian and Chinese “aggressors”. There were heated debates since many didn’t want to declare war. Some were opposed to Japan’s war in China, but others still saw Japan as a necessary ally because Japan could contain Russian ambitions in the Far East. Britain’s hand was forced due to its obligations and so war was declared on Russia in November 1939.

This coincided with another crisis that played at this time, namely the remilitarization of the Rhineland in September by a resurgent Germany against the rulings of the Treaty of Colchester. Germany’s confidence in its military abilities had managed to recover from the defeat in 1915 by now, hence this decision. France responded with vociferous protests and outright demanded that German forces withdrew which the Germans indignantly refused, saying that the remilitarization had been an infraction on Germany’s sovereignty to begin with. When the withdrawal didn’t happen, France declared war on Germany in December 1939. Britain was still allied to France. Due to these commitments and France’s rash actions Britain’s hand was again forced. Britain was itching for a second round anyway since they had failed to punish Germany enough the last time. Germany had succeeded in becoming the dominant power of Europe again with a population that was larger than those of Britain and France combined and a military-industrial complex that dwarfed those of Britain and France. In this mess, Italy remained neutral as the only great power to do so. The result was an odd situation where France, Britain and Japan were at war with Russia, Germany and Germany’s Hungarian client state. What had begun as two separate crises – the Second Russo-Japanese War and the Rhineland crisis – had spiralled out of control in a “perfect storm” as one historian once dubbed it.The Second World War had officially begun.
 
An Entente-wank, followed by Balkan Wars.

Sounds reasonable. The Greeks managed to hold Smyrna?

What about all those bajillions of Turks in Constantiniple/Thrace/Izmir/Izmit? What happened to them?
 
What about all those bajillions of Turks in Constantiniple/Thrace/Izmir/Izmit? What happened to them?

They were expulsed, unfortunately for them.

EDIT: Btw, could anyone do some maps for TTL. I'd like to see a map for the 1916 post-war world and another for the 1939 world. It would be much appreciated.
 
This isn't realistic. First of all, Alexander's successors didn't inhibit industrial development, which was already so rapid that it led to serious revolutionary agitation. Second, even if there was unlimited capital and labor, you couldn't electrify every big city in 9 years as well as triple the already massive and quickly-built rail system.

And there isn't unlimited capital! Who is paying for all this? The tax burden would be crushing, the debt load disastrous, and there isn't enough capital in all of Europe to accomplish it.

I can understand a better outcome for Russia, but you're accelerating it way too far without considering the internal political, social, and economic effects, not to mention the massive hysterical paranoia that it would provoke in the rest of the world.

And just once it would be nice to have a TL without a huge genocide of Turks.
 
This isn't realistic. First of all, Alexander's successors didn't inhibit industrial development, which was already so rapid that it led to serious revolutionary agitation. Second, even if there was unlimited capital and labor, you couldn't electrify every big city in 9 years as well as triple the already massive and quickly-built rail system.

And there isn't unlimited capital! Who is paying for all this? The tax burden would be crushing, the debt load disastrous, and there isn't enough capital in all of Europe to accomplish it.

I can understand a better outcome for Russia, but you're accelerating it way too far without considering the internal political, social, and economic effects, not to mention the massive hysterical paranoia that it would provoke in the rest of the world.

And just once it would be nice to have a TL without a huge genocide of Turks.

The reforms are continued by Alexander II's successors Vladimir III and Cyril I, not all of this happened in 8/9 years. It's more like 20, 25 and even 30 years actually (well, except for the street lighting. I'll change that if I can still edit it).

A quote fom the TL:
He was crowned Tsar Vladimir III, Emperor and Autocrat of all the Russians, in the Moscow Dormition Cathedral and continued building on the system built by his father and would continue to modernize.

EDIT: Anyway, I slightly edited the first chapter. Better now?
 
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