The Red China/Taiwan recognition crisis--looking for input.

Red China was continually demanding that western states recognize it diplomatically—and yet, at the same time, saying that, if you did, you had to un-recognize Nationalist China/Taiwan. Suppose that the USA, Britian, and others had replied, “We will welcome China embassies, but China will have to accept that we will continue to recognize nationalist China as a free and independent member of the community of nations. On those terms, an exchange of embassies is welcome.”

Would Red China accept that, or simply choose to stay isolated because there is, in its mind, only one China. In this situation, the USA and others say, "If there's only one official Chinese government, it's the existing one in exile on Taiwan."

Nixon falling down the stairs might be a good POD...

I’m contemplating a timeline where Nationalist China continues to be a fully recognized nation, and don’t know what the status of Red China would be in such a situation. And, if they are both recognized, what about China’s UN seat?

The timeline will get interesting when time comes for the handover of Hong Kong. I plan for a possibly unrelated quarrel between Britain and Red China to lead to serious complications—specifically, many in Britain contending that Nationalist China is the legitimate owner of Hong Kong—and that the people of Hong Kong want to be transferred to Taiwanese ownership, or remain under the Union Jack. From there, things get MESSY!
 
The reason that dual recognition--or some form thereof--didn't occur back in 1979 is basically because Chiang threw a hissy fit. The US was prepared to give Taiwan a seat in the UN, it was just that China's seat on the UNSC would go to the PRC. Ideologically speaking, there is no real problem with this. After all, most nations used to recognize both East and West Germany, or North and South Korea, without any implication that there would not be eventual unification.

I think it's still possible for the US to do dual recognition in the future. After all, the US has been extremely carefell in its public statements to say that it "acknowledges", not "agrees with" China's cliams that Taiwan is part of China, and it "does not support", not that it "opposes" Taiwanese independence. Personally, I think dual recognition would be the moral foreign policy. Of course, I recognize that it's extremely unlikely. China today recognizes that many, many people on Taiwan want eventual independence--a bare majority now, and the percent in favor grows every year. Therefore, China is much more wary of anything that might seem to legitimize that view in the international sphere. More importantly, China is a hell of a lot more powerful and important now that in was in 1979. The US isn't going to do something that will piss off China if it can avoid it. The only way I can see dual recognition happening in the future, really, is if Sino-American relations are already so bad that it doesn't matter. I mean like US-Russian relations in 1963 bad. So it seems quite unlikely.

On to the specific point of Hong Kong, I have to say that would be difficult. If the 1992 democratization of Taiwan happens on schedule, then you're going to have a significant chunk of the population looking for future independence. They will be opposed to obtaining a chunk of China, and now they will be able to make their views heard. Even for the people in Taiwan who think of themselves as Chinese, why would they want this? Why piss off China, who already regularly threatens to invade or attack, by picking up a territory that they can't possibly defend?

Basically, you would need a PoD in Taiwan to create the political will to even want to govern HK, you'd need massive changes in China to make it so weak that it is safe to piss it off, and finally you need a PoD in the Anglo-Americans to make them unafraid to risk war with China in order to hand HK to a regime they like better (arguably for good reason). Very difficult.
 
By the time of Nixons trip to China, it was too late. The US would have to recognize the prc and adopt a 2 china policy in the mid-60s, imo, for this to work.
 
Basically, you would need a PoD in Taiwan to create the political will to even want to govern HK, you'd need massive changes in China to make it so weak that it is safe to piss it off, and finally you need a PoD in the Anglo-Americans to make them unafraid to risk war with China in order to hand HK to a regime they like better (arguably for good reason). Very difficult.

I remember reading about plans for coup in the 50's that would've removed the Chiang's and declared Taiwan independent of China having some support in DC. I don't know how true that is, especially since it would've entailed ceding China's seat in the UN, but perhaps if Chiang overplays his hand to the point the US feels it can't deal with him anymore, such a scenario could play out. How China would react, particularly when it looks to normalize ties with the West, is a question mark, though.
 
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