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Introduction

OTL
In his biography of Hitler, british historian Ian Kershaw describes the Nazi reich (the one IOTL) as a series of competing bureaucracies with overlapping areas of responsibility. In a gross simplification of the thesis, by building a reich where everyone was competing between themselves for influence and approval, Hitler became the power-broker of Germany. Instead of competing with the various bureaucracies of the german state, they were competing for his approval.

While Hitler himself appeared anathema to bureaucracy, he didn’t really seem to understand how it worked. His attempts to “cut through” bureaucracy would usually involve breaking down an existing or upstart institution that challenged his authority and leaving a power vacuum in its wake. This vacuum would then be filled by existing or new bureaucracies, usually unevenly, and Hitler would gain one more sphere of influence to lord over.

There are plenty of examples, but we don’t have to look much farther than the night of the long knives and the Rum affair. Instead of dissolving the SA wholesale, Hitler weakened its authority, and its role in enforcement and security of the party was reduced in favor of the SS and to some degree the German police and Wehrmacht.

Timeline Goals
The goal of this timeline is to explore a world where not only did this web of overbearing continue to exist beyond 1945, but to show how it would have extended to the rest of the German sphere of influence after the axis victory. Explore an axis victory timeline through the lens of the relationship between personal fascist rule of exemplified in the Hitler regime, and unrestrained bureaucratic growth and eventual rot.

As such my goal is for this timeline to get to a point where it can be considered a “Hard/Soft Alternate History”. I’m not trying to extrapolate history out of a certain POD, but construct a reasonable enough framework for exploring the “messy reich” reality.

POD

The Big One
The battle of France goes more favorably for the German army, BEF surrenders before it can be evacuated at Dunkirk.

Pretty Butterflies
Some things that happen in this timeline are more likely to happen in it then IOTL, however, are still not more likely to happen then they do in ours. I’m not the biggest fan of them, and my goal is to limit them as much as possible, these are some of the likeliest things to change as I refine this timeline.
  • The British leave the war as a result of a BEF surrender. I don’t actually know if the british would quit the war over this, given that it was considered in OTL where the evacuation actually worked, this feels like the least flowery butterfly to me, but I can still see a very good case against it.
  • Russian anti-stalinist coup occurs as a result of more significant misfortune in the TL. Look, this is post purge russia we’re talking about. Are we really willing to consider the possibility that a little more losing in the war would lead to a coup? I mean things were still very desperate in our timeline and they didn’t get rid of the mustachioed comrade, I’m not sure just a bit more losing would do the trick.
  • Isolationist US and Japanese non-aggression. Could this have happened? For the US part I think so. Even if the depressed US has more economic power then the axis, and greater industry, I think that the perception of power is just as important here as the actual power the nation has, I don’t think that the major Nazi successes in the early part of this timeline would account for this. What I’m more worried about is Japan not going after the US, if it perceives war to be inevitable I’d imagine they’d want to strike earlier, but as it stands right now a preemptive strike against the US ITTL gets constantly pushed back until it becomes infeasible.
Timeline

Immediate Aftermath from POD
May 30th vote in the British cabinet to continue the war fails, Churchill resigns.

Events on the ground in Europe outpace British politics, while initially it appears a single armistice will be signed by France and Britain, it falls aparts, and France signs a separate armistice (very similar to the one in our timeline, but with some key provisions changed regarding the french navy granting the germans more control), some weeks later a separate armistice is signed between Britain and the Axis.

The British Empire remains intact, but Britain has to recognize the end of the Versailles treaty, the end of all other international measures meant to curb the size of the German army / Navy, and recognize German suzernity in Poland. De Gaulle makes it to Britain, but is shipped back to France after the treaty is signed.

WWII never becomes WWII, WWI is still just "The Great War". The events between September 1939 and June 1940 go by a series of different titles, referring to their status as a catastrophe for the western allies.

Hitler is seen as a hero at home.

De Gaulle
Manages to flee Vichy france, and forms a relationship with other elements of French resistance abroad. TTL’s equivalent of the June 18 speech (which is not broadcast by Britain) reaches fewer and less motivated ears. No French colonies outright defect to his government in exile. So colonies de-facto sever relationships with France.

Jewish Free State
With the conquest of Poland behind them, and no less anti-semitic and racist then they are in our timeline, the Nazis begin formulating a plan for what they intend to do with their jewish subjects.

Unlike in our timeline, with no royal navy in their way, the Nazi's begin shipping Jewish people (and those considered to be "Jewish" under German law) to madagascar. Several settlements are established along the coast of the Island. These settlements are severely under provisioned, the settlers are ill equipped for the climate, and the local indigenous populations (as well as leftovers from the French settlement) are extremely hostile towards the mass of people heading for the island.

As many as 4 out of every 5 "settlers" deported to madagascar dies in the first year. Only two major jewish settlements on the Island survive in the long term. Their leaders are appointed by the Germans, and they depend on axis imports for survival, they make up the so-called "Jewish Free State". German military detachments on the Island routinely brutalise the Jewish and native population of the Island.

Nazi Atrocities
Nazis are Nazis, given the opportunity to Nazi all over the place, we can assume they will Nazi all over the place.

Even after "winning" in 1940, they still violently opress the polish people, commit genocidal acts both inside and outside the "General Government", violently repress dissent at home, put euthanasia into practice, and overall keep Nazi'ing wherever they can.

In addition, the existence of a "Jewish Free State" does not come at the expense of brutality against Jews in europe, it's just another oppressive bureaucracy in competition with many others trying to appeal to Hitler. There is no magic spell to get all of Europe's Jewish people to madagascar at once, and as they are being shipped out (in sub-human conditions mind you) those waiting around in europe are still victims of brutality, the violence of einsatzgruppen, and genocidal oppression.

War with Russia
Hey, look, trying to knock the UK out of the war might've been one really stupid reason for the Nazis to invade Russia, but it wasn't the only one. The magic afterglow of having defeated France and Britain wouldn't last on Hitler forever, and eventually his sights turned back on the "ideological" foe of the Nazi Reich. Sometime around 1941 the Nazis invade the Soviet Union. Eastern Europe is dragged into a state of war, as more and more states in the region must chose a side between the warring powers.

The war goes well for the Nazis, slightly better than in our timeline. Both the military and Hitler himself are less troubled with the western allies.

The Germans manage to take Stalingrad after a brutal fight, but find the human cost of the war, and their own loses, far from their initial rosey projections.

Without the prospects of a war in north Africa, Italy sets its sights on Turkey, trying to head this off Turkey grows closers to Germany. As the Italians fail to take Greece and the Germans are required to intervene on their behalf, Turkish fears against Italy subside.

The Italian failure is the beginning of a process of Italian submission to Germany, a slow and growing dependence on German military power and secret police to remain in control of their own territory.

Many more Axis powers in Europe will find themselves in this position as the war progresses, trading their own survival for increasing German suzernity.

British Colonial Entanglements
Where's Britain in all this? Stuck trying to untangle an empire that wants it gone as suzerain. British failure in the war against Germany has ruined its prestige and moral. Massive revolts, particularly in India, drain British manpower and the treasury. A draft caused by the Indian war leads to massive protests. After several years Britain is financially ruined and withdraws from India.

The distasteful nature of the peace with Germany leads many politicians to adopt a more openly pro-German line, trying to retroactively normalise the circumstances of their support for the Nazi regime. One such "apologist" government accepts german presence in colonies across the world in exchange for german military support.

Axis troops will be stationed alongside British ones allowing the UK to deploy much needed men to more volatile areas.

In addition the British agree to allow Vichy france to expand its presence near Newfoundland in the tiny french colony of St. Pierre and Miquelon.

Mandatory Palestine
German atrocities against the Jews are a well known fact in Palestine, the Jewish settlement has grown from refugees fleeing the Nazi yoke, and grown significantly more militarized by the threat. This increased militarization leads to increased tension with the Palestinian Arab community.

The German Sarona colony becomes the target of Jewish anti-german agitation. When german troops begin landing in the mandate, one of the more extremist Jewish groups sets a bomb off in a hotel being used by German officials. The germans retaliate directly against the Jewish population. The situation spins quickly out of control as the British government, unable to control the German presence in its own mandate, dissolves under mounting public pressure and a vote of no confidence. A new government under Winston Churchill forms and immediately orders the germans to dissit and leave British territory.

Hitler does not recognize the new government as legitimate, and sets up his own puppet government in exile (maybe under Edward?) the German army begins seizing British territory in the mediterranean and Africa. Several colonies use this opportunity to break free from the UK, or join the “government in exile”.

Most of the jewish people in mandatory palestine are either deported to Madagascar or killed outright. The Sarona colony becomes an official part of the German state. The palestinian arabs do not find life any better under the Nazi regime.

St. Pierre and Miquelon
As the crisis deepens in the UK most of the British colonies in the Americas being forming closer relationships with the US and Canada. News reaches the Canadians of Vichy’s intent to militarize the island.

British intelligence alerts the french resistance of Vichy’s intentions, De Gaulle and a single resistance ship land on the island without notifying the US, UK, or Canada of their plans.

St. Pierre and Miquelon retains its negative view of Vichy from OTL and accepts De Gaulle despite his smaller army.

Vichy France demands the return of the Island, and demands Canadian and US intervention.

(this part is still a work in progress and is to be continued….)

The United States
The new deal has done a lot to relieve the pressures of the great depression, but not enough to get rid of it, not without a war and industrial effort. The United States maintains its negative trade relations with Japan from OTL.

The perception of Nazi invincibility from the 1939-1940 period only makes US isolationism more popular.

Japan
In exchange for caucasian oil and naval support in the pacific from the German fleet, made possible by a lack of royal navy to face off against, the Japanese have agreed to focus more effort on fighting the Soviets in Siberia during the 1941 period. The operations are massive failures for the Japanese, but they manage to divert enough Soviet attention away from the west to enable the Germans to turn the war back to a war of movement.

Japanese preoccupation in Siberia leads to a postponement of a preemptive strike against the Americans, as the years go on it becomes less and less feasible, and less desirable as the Japanese now have access to Caucasian and Indonesian oil.

The End of the War with Russia
A coup against Stalin finally triggered the end of the war in the east for Germany, vast swaths of land are surrendered to the Germans, a loose confederation of Russian "states" is allowed to survive in the land outside the seized german "living space". To the Germans the east is like a wild west for them to settle, only instead of old world plagues to kill the natives, genocide and war is used to drive the slavic population ever eastward. Beyond the Urals lies an almost perpetual wildland of civil war between factions claiming to be the former Soviet Union.

The german living space is divided between several bureaucracies, colonial "states", new "German nations", and new "gau" ostensibly still parts of Germany (primarily in the baltics), and territories directly administered by either the wehrmacht or the SS.

The Co-Prosperity Sphere
With Russia defeated the Japanese return to the task of carving there co-prosperity sphere out of the Asian nations. The disastrous invasion of the Soviet Union diverted precious manpower and attention away from the war in China, and defeating the Chinese requires significantly more effort from the Japanese. Japan allows french indochina to remain under french control, so long as a long term plan for national autonomy is adopted in the area.

The philippines gain independence in 1945 and being a trade relationship with Japan, the US maintains a looming military presence.

The USA
Without public support the US is unable to begin a preemptive war with Japan, but has built up its military capability significantly. By 1945 it's finally beginning to exit its depression era period. A cold war begins to develop between the American and Axis spheres.

The Bomb
Without a MAUD committee to pave the way for it, and with no war on to induce neigh-unlimited funding, the US equivalent of the manhattan project only kicks into gear in the late 1940s.

The Germans haven’t had much more luck, a distaste for the so called “jewish” science behind it and chronic misadministration have cause the german bomb project to move slowly. A massive disaster occurs as a reactor built under miscalculated specifications explodes creating an irradiated disaster area around the test site.

The Germans begin pursuing the use of radiation as a weapon, a dirty bomb. However even this project is sidelined by the more effective alternatives available to them. Only later intelligence about american nuclear ambitions begin the wheels turning for a german a-bomb.

The German Sphere After the Wars
As the 1940s turn into the 1950s the various axis powers grow more and more dependant on German support for their own survival. Despite each having their own "national" government, police forces, and army, these nations feel the constant presence of the German armies and SS forces stationed throughout their territory.

Every attempt at rebellion or autonomy is an excuse for the Germans to apply more military pressure to take more of it away. It is very unlikely that if German authorities would want something to happen in another axis nation, that it won't eventually, despite there not being a single set protocol for this happening. Every nation is influenced by a different cocktail of german bureaucracies, with only the dictatorial power of Hitler strong enough to turn any idea into a unified policy.

Several states have joined Germany in a customs union, several have adopted the mark, or had their currency pegged to the mark, yet some of the colonial nations formed by Germany in the new “living space” have decided to create their own currencies.

Some of the new colonial states are SS or Wehrmacht projects, some are entirely new entities with their own bureaucracies, fewer are colonial nations or territories held by the other axis powers.

Several integral German industries have been nationalised, and yet several other industries hold sway over some of the other government bureaucracies.

Meanwhile the various armed bureaucracies of Germany (SS, Wehrmacht, the armies of the axis nations, etc) are engaged in a constant state of war and suppression across the Axis sphere. Violently pushing the African and Russian frontiers back to fuel their own ideological needs for conflict and validation.

The German reich is a mess, a massive mess. It reflects Hitler's own precinct for drama. He needs the reich to be the mess, because keeping his underlyings fightings leaves him as the "decider", gives him purpose and something to do and complain about.

The axis economy is kept afloat by brash exploitation, kleptocracy, and conquest. As anything near “grand planning” in the reich is steeped in ideological dogma, the reich is unable to form a sustainable economy in the long term. Some of the axis powers are doing better financially on an individual level, but remain joined at the hip to the monstrosity that is the Nazi economy.

Ultimately, either Hitler will manage to appoint a successor with a "moral" authority matching his own, or it will disintegrate the moment he dies and the strongest member of any of these competing bureaucracies tries seizing power only to find himself at war with the rest.

To-Do
  • Explore the fate of latin America.
  • Get into specifics of Nazi collapse, go further into the future
  • Explore specific axis bureaucracies in the alt history
    • The competing states and orgs of the “living space”
    • Vichy France
    • Jewish Free State / Madagascar
    • Polish government
    • Divisions of the Japanese sphere
    • Defecting and occupied british Colonies
  • What’s going on in scandinavia?
  • Find formatting I’m comfortable with in both the AltHistory forum and the google doc
  • Just everything to do with St. Pierre and Miquelon needs revision
  • Get into the specifics of the BEF Surrender
Changelog

Revision 1.2
  • Changed formatting.
  • A lot not alot. Thanks RMcD94
    Redid introduction to emphasize the timeline’s mission, and the basis of the “Messy reich” idea on OTL. Thanks Stenz, Garrison
  • Generalized the POD to a BEF Surrender, take the focus away from the halt order. Thanks Garrison
  • Added a butterflies section to explain secondary “pod”ish things. Thanks Garrison, CountPeter
  • Added some stuff about OTL’s favorite gold stealing french president.
  • Changed Britain getting financial support from Germany to Britian getting military support, added a sentence to flesh that out. Thanks Stenz
  • Goodbye Newfoundland... Thanks wcv215, nbcman
  • Hello St. Pierre and Miquelon! Thanks Nick P, Evan
  • Japan no longer wins the pacific war! (When have they ever) Instead delaying a preemptive strike against the US due to loses in Siberia, only to realise later that the US war economy has far outpaced them to strike. Thanks wcv215, Mac Gregor, Kalga, belushi td
  • Took away everyone’s nukes. Thanks wcv215, belushi td
  • Gave the Philippines their independence. Thanks Kalga
  • Added stuff about the US and the A-Bomb. Thanks wcv215, metalinvader665
Feedback?
So what do you guys think? I'm really interested in where I might've really screwed up here with implausible stuff. I mean, I'm much better versed in the continental side of WWII, and the Jewish perspective on the war, so if I'm not sure about anything it's the pacific stuff, or of places slightly further out from Europe like Latin American and the like.
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