Just recently, I've seen on the Net
the story of the sinking of HMS Automedon by the German raider Atlantis, in, I believe it was September 1940. "Force Z Survivors.org" has a website about this.
Much to indicate somehow, something common sense wasn't done, possibly deliberately, by powers-that-were, to ensure Nippon was tempted into an attack on the Allies.
Important and sensitive data fell into the hands of the Nazis--who promptly got it to their brand-new ally, Japan.
That allowed IJN and IJA to plan attacks to hit us where we lived.
Well, WI: those docs hadn't fallen into German hands.
Rather, at the very least, they go down with the ship.
Or, the Atlantis attack doesn't happen, or somehow fails.
No sensitive info. to Japan.
No temptation to attack due to knowledge of Allied weaknesses.
Would Japan have then attacked after FDR froze the oil over the Japanese occupation of Indochina?
WI Japan hadn't known of the inadequacies of British command in Malaya.
I suppose, that, part of that, would have been found out by other means. Malaya was a tempting target, as were the Indies.
But would Japan have attacked America, too, in that scenario, or only Britain and Holland's possessions? In other words, not bringing any new players in, in order to gain natural resources against already-reeling Britain and Holland.
Maybe it would have gone worse, with all those IJ assets arrayed solely against Britain and Holland?
Or--would it have taken Japan longer to have discovered Britain's weak points in Malaya (though they may have already fairly accurately surmised them of Holland in the Pacific)?
That might mean a delay in the attack, since they'd not know that Allied plans called for reinforcements to arrive in 1942.
Such a delay--could also have changed the outcome in those campaigns.
Or, in another theater--WI O'Connor is successful in Operation Compass, and manages to capture Tripoli--and possibly Rommel--through RN successes against his supply ships and Britain postponing sending troops to Greece until Tripoli is captured (see "The Major and the General" by Condor elsewhere in AH for more on this).
This would possibly have freed up some British resources for other theaters, including Malaya.