The Rats of Singapore

I have two questions regarding this topic...

1) What would the reasons that lead to a British victory in Singapore in 1942?
(any addition of a Stalingrad-style battle on the island itself would be welcome)

2) Possible repercussions of such a victory

Please help... I'm thinking of writing a narrative for this but I don't know where to start. Any help appreciated. Thanks. :)
 

Markus

Banned
I have two questions regarding this topic...

1) What would the reasons that lead to a British victory in Singapore in 1942?
(any addition of a Stalingrad-style battle on the island itself would be welcome)

:confused: You mean, how could the British have won? Well, they had twice as many troops as the Japanese. Digging in in a position that can not be outflanked and good communications with their artillery should suffice.


2) Possible repercussions of such a victory
If Sumatra can be held too the Dutch East Indies can be retaken fairly soon. That cut off the flow of oil to Japan.
 
1) What would the reasons that lead to a British victory in Singapore in 1942?

In grade ten history I was taught that Singapore fell so swiftly because all the heavy guns pointed out to sea - when the plans were made no-one anticipated a land assault. However, according to wikipedia, the problem was rather that although most of the guns could face the land approach, most of their ammunition was anti-ship; if they had had an adequate supply of high explosive shells the Japanese would have had a much harder time of it. Probably still far too simplistic, but it might be a starting point.

2) Possible repercussions of such a victory

A few initial thoughts:

The Japs have fewer troops available in the Pacific and the Allies have more. Related to that, no Bridge on the River Kwai. Alas.

The Japs may find it rather harder going in the Dutch East Indies - so decolonisation there could go rather differently.

Less concern about bringing Australian troops back from North Africa, no perception of abandonment by the Mother country and no 'Look to America' - so after the war Australia may retain a closer relationship with Britain and the Empire.

Singapore was the biggest capitulation in British military history. I wonder what the predecessor was for that sought-after title.
 
I was thinking of a scenario where the HMS Indomitable manages to get deployed to Malaya with Force Z. I was also thinking of replacing Percival with a more competent commander. Slim, Monty and Auchinleck would be my choices to replace Percival.

There's also the snippet where the forces designated for Operation Ironclad are being used to lift the siege on Singapore if the city held out until April, with the arrival of the beefed up Eastern Fleet under Admiral Somerville.

As for the repurcussions, I could use what was mentioned. But then again, I was hoping for something like say, what would happen twenty years into the future if the British has won.
 

CalBear

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It isn't easy, given the Japanese brilliant planning and audacity, but these action could have forced at least a long drawn out fight.

1. Competent leadership. This would include some level of "what if" anticipation of what the enemy could do, rather than what you want them to do as well as actually training your forces to fight in Malaya against a modern light infantry force.

2. Proper equipment. This would include bombardment shells for all the coastal defense weapons (the 15" guns had full arcs of fire, but didn't have the right shells). A company or two of light tanks would be nice. A few more fighters (and some aircraft shelters) would be nice too.

3. A PLAN. The basic British Plan (a term I use very loosely) to defend Singapore in 1941 went something like this: Expect untrained troops to fight like veterans and hope the U.S. Navy can pull our chestnuts out of the fire if something pops because we have bigger problems to deal with in Africa and the Med.

That would allow at least a very long term draw, perhaps as long as a year, 18 months if everything broke Singapore's way.
 
It is the easiest and hardest thing in the world to make Singapore survive and to make it the lynchpin of the Pacific war. It would be the easiest thing to replace Percival, the only commander in WW2 worse than Macarthur, with someone good, but everyone knows that there is nobody good in the British Army to replace Percy.
 

Markus

Banned
It isn't easy, given the Japanese brilliant planning and audacity, but these action could have forced at least a long drawn out fight.


Brilliant planning? Frivolous planning!

Attacking three divisions with three divisions one of which was at least as untrained as two of the enemy?
And let´s not forget their so-called logistics; they captured a lot of allied supplies but they were still just days away from running out of supplies when Singapore surrendered.

A user in another forum said that Yamashita underestimated the allied strength in Singapore by 50%. If that´s true it explains their planning.


@Riain:
Come on, the entire Armies of the British empire has not one decent Major-General they can spare for the job? If so what about sending Percival sooner? Clearing up the Malayan mess in half a year would be a major challange for anybody.
 
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I'm not sure how you can call Japanese plans frivolous. Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore....

I will grant from a strategic point of view, attacking America and the rest was insane, but it's hard to deny the efficacy.
 

CalBear

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Brilliant planning? Frivolous planning!

Attacking three divisions with three divisions one of which was at least as untrained as two of the enemy?
And let´s not forget their so-called logistics; they captured a lot of allied supplies but they were still just days away from running out of supplies when Singapore surrendered.

A user in another forum said that Yamashita underestimated the allied strength in Singapore by 50%. If that´s true it explains their planning.


@Riain:
Come on, the entire Armies of the British empire has not one decent Major-General they can spare for the job? If so what about sending Percival sooner? Clearing up the Malayan mess in half a year would be a major challange for anybody.

The Japanese planned to catch the Brish by surrpise, they did; planned to keep the British off balance, they did; made a plan to use armor work in the Jungle (something that the British had decided was flatly impossible)that worked; executed a series of well planned (on the fly) well conducted amphibious landings around British strong points during the progress down the Peninsula; took advantage of every single British error; made use of bicycles (hardly a new concept, but one that escaped the British); and altered their plans based on what the Brits provided in the way of tactical and logisitical advantage.

Yamashita had a very limited force available to him, he utilized it with more than a trace of brilliance, and was willing to bluff when necessary (the classic example being the circumstances behind the surrender itself).

So yes, I will stay with brilliant and audicious.
 

Markus

Banned
I'm not sure how you can call Japanese plans frivolous. Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore....

but it's hard to deny the efficacy.

Yes, the Japanese succeeded but just because the Allies managed to get everything wrong all the time until it was too late. Planning based on such an assumption would be frivolous but I think in Malaya the Japanese "just" made the mistake of putting the allied strenght at half of what it actually was. So I admit it was not frivolous, just faulty but certainly not brilliant.



@Cal Bear:
I agree they took advantage of every single British error but both the number and magnitude of these errors were extraordinary and IMO unforseeable, like 2pdr AT guns not being able to kill Japanese tanks. My mind is still boggling with that. :eek:

By the way, do you know if the Japanese really underestimated the numerical strenght of the allies that much?
 
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Redbeard

Banned
Finding PoDs for a British victory in Malaya isn't that hard, but one that doesn't work is saving Force Z. Even if Force Z can intecept the Japanese landings on the East and North coast of Malaya, it will not significantly influence the mai bn campaign, as the north and east coast then were practically cut off from the important west coast, where all the infrastructure and riches were.

The British plan (Matador) for that reason also didn't put reliance on naval forces operating the South Chinese Sea, but depended on British forces taking up defensive positions on the narrow Isthmus of Kra before the Japanese could enter Malaya that way from Thailand.

That would mean the British violating Siam neutrality, but the British commander of the Far East Brooke-Popham, had in early december been given authority to initiate Matador on signs of Japanese aggression. In the days before the attack he did receive sightings of Japanese convoys converging on Malaya, but he was so scared by Churchill's warnings about not prematurely starting a war with Japan, that he did not dare do anything.

Had he initiated Matador, the British would have been in very good defensive positions that would be very difficult to outflank. The problems in OTL for the Commonwealth troops usually came when they were outflanked. An initial defeat of the Japanese would be a tremendous morale booster for the Commonwealth troops, and even poorly trained troops can be quite effective in defense - as lonmg as they are not outfklanked and things go well.

Matador did prescribe a larger number and better troops than were available in Malaya, so victory is in no way sure, but even so a defensive position on Kra would be very difficult for the Japanese to break.

The defense of Singapore itself, if the Japanese get that far, indeed could be performed a lot better - like preparing it at all. The difficult thing is that the supply of fresh water depended on Johore just across the strait, but with all the troops available, some field fortifications and HE ammo for the artillery it wouldn't be impossible. If not for other reasons then because the Japanese were at the end of their logistic string and had no heavy artillery when the British surrendered in OTL. Arriving just a few days later at Singapore might be enough for the Japanese to fail, as that would allow the regular 18th British Division to be deployed - it had just arrived when Percival surrendered.

The Imperial General Staff had proposed several times in 1941 that reinforcements should be sent. A regular Division, a tank regiment, some AA and about 200 modern fighters would bring the force up to Matador level, and units had been pointed out, but Churchill repeatedly refused to send any more to Malaya - apart from Force Z - which wasn't needed at all, didn't help and was lost.

A PoD where reinforcements are sent might mean offensive ambitions in the Med. and fightersweeps over France being slightly downgraded, but as these operations in OTL had no success anyway, it will hardly effect the allied cause negatively.

A Japanse defeat in Malaya would OTOH have huge effects. Without Malaya, no Singapore, and without Singapore any Japanese conquests in Dutch East India can't be utilised, and the entire raison d'etre behind the Japanse entry into the war is down the drain. If the Japanese go for full scale war they will in a few months run out of oil and the British Empire will combine a liberation of French Indo China and Hong Kong (and intensive support for the Chinese nationalists) with a trade war cutting off Japan from imports. By 1943 Japan will be starving and not capable of waging war.

No communist take over in China and Vietnam, the British Empire last for a couple of decades longer, the Commonwealth is a vital political and economical entity channeling investment and goods between the first and third world, Africa has much better infrastructure when independence comes, EU never happens as the French-German coal and steel union slowly dies away with coal and steel...

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 

Markus

Banned
The difficult thing is that the supply of fresh water depended on Johore just across the strait,

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

I got some interesting info on the water supply:

71. Water.—It is only necessary here to explain the water supply in the Singapore Island area. In other parts of Malaya there was little or no danger of a water shortage. Singapore Island was dependent upon two main sources of supply
(a) reservoirs at Gunong Pulai in Johore (10 miles west of Johore Bahru) and
(b) rainwater catchment areas and open air reservoirs on Singapore Island i.e. the Seletar, Peirce and MacRitchie Reservoirs.
From the former water was brought by aboveground pipe line to Singapore Town where it filled two high-level covered reservoirs at Pearls Hill and Fort Canning. Branches from the Johore pipe-line supplied the Naval Base and Army and Air Force barracks in that area.

The Peirce Reservoir fed by gravity into the MacRitchie Reservoir whence water was pumped into the distribution mains serving the Singapore and Changi areas against the Johore water coming via the Pearls Hill and Fort Canning Reservoirs. The supply from the Seletar, Peirce and MacRitchie Reservoirs was ample to give a restricted supply indefinitely even if the population was increased by refugees, provided the control of these reservoirs remained in our hands and the machinery for distribution continued to operate.

Operations of Malaya Command, from 5th December, 1941 to 15th February, 1942.
By Lieut. General A. E. Percival
 

Hyperion

Banned
Having HMS Indomitable with Force Z would be a potential help, but not the end all be all.

Disadvantages. Royal Navy carrier aircraft where not up to par with everyone else. Sea Hurricanes where coming around but I don't know how many might be available. Now if you could equip her fighter squadron(s) with the Martlet, which if I'm not mistaken was the British designation for the F4F Wildcat, you might have a decent fighter cover.

Force Z goes out, radar on the carrier sees the incoming Japanese bombers, but no fighters(didn't have the range). Despite taking some losses and some bombers pressing their attacks, the British pilots manage to shoot down a couple dozen, bombers, and perhaps with less targets to try and hit the gunners on the ships take out a few more than OTL.

After taking a couple of hits but nothing major, Phillips decides to get out of dodge, but orders the carrier to possibly prepare for a night strike on anything that they can find. Say they bag a couple of transports and throw in a light cruiser.

End result. The Navy still has to leave, but a couple less squadrons of Japanese planes and a few less ships to worry about. Not a crippling blow, but it could perhaps buy a couple of days.
 
If you want a single PoD, having something happen to Percival causing his replacement by a competant commander even as little as 6 months before the invasion would probably work.

Having the troops available better trained (and in jungle warfare), making sure commanders knew to destroy supplies rather than leave them, having proper field defences - these things alone would have at least made the initial Japanese success fail without any new resources. Singapore may still fall - depends on how well the Japanese can stop supply - but even so it will now take a while and be a (politically) far more acceptable defeat. Given how fragile the Japanese timescales were, it could have unhinged the entire Pacific campaign.

A few minor resources - a few hundred Hurricanes, instead of giving them to the Russians, ditto for a brigade of tanks, some HE shells for the guns - and SIngapore probably doesnt fall at all....

Now if we get rid of MacArthur as well, maybe the allies can hold on to the Phillapines as well - then the Japanese plan really gets screwed.

How about having Percival and MacA found in bed together in early 1941? That should do it.....:D:p:D
 
If the Japanese go for full scale war they will in a few months run out of oil and the British Empire will combine a liberation of French Indo China and Hong Kong (and intensive support for the Chinese nationalists) with a trade war cutting off Japan from imports. By 1943 Japan will be starving and not capable of waging war.

How long did it take Japan to actually get oil out of Inesonai?

I'm also not sure why the EU dies and why the Commonwealth is more successful; are you sure you're not the Tory?
 
It seems Admiral Phillips was more concerned with preserving radio silence - than call for air support! Because it was the Captain of the Repulse who broke radio silence as his ship was sinking. That signal, sent to Naval HQ in Singapore, took nearly an hour to reach 453 Squadron who had Buffalos at readiness - three miles away!
This despite the fact that 'call signs and radio frequencies were exchanged so that there would be no problems with communications'. This to enable the plan to give the ships fighter cover over at least six fighters.
Yet, the Squadron wasn't even informed when the ships had put to sea - to enable them to deploy to advance bases. Apart from the Squadron's aircraft assigned to the fleet, they could also call for assistance from 243 Squadron.

Source: 'Life's too short to cry' by Tim Vigors - his Buffalo flew over the PoW as it sank.
It's an interesting book, but it's going back to the library in a couple of weeks.
 
I have two questions regarding this topic...

1) What would the reasons that lead to a British victory in Singapore in 1942?
(any addition of a Stalingrad-style battle on the island itself would be welcome)

2) Possible repercussions of such a victory

Please help... I'm thinking of writing a narrative for this but I don't know where to start. Any help appreciated. Thanks. :)

At this point in time the island isn't urbanised enough for a Stalingrad style battle. There's a fairly compact city area and the rest of the island is low density.

Also like others have said the fall of Singapore is both very easy and very hard to prevent. I suppose the easiest solution is to have Percival hold out a day or two more- the Japanese were already almost out of supplies and a determined counterattack, even by the inexperienced forces present in Singapore could have pushed them back.
 
Answering Poo Bah, I think the previous worst capitulation of a British Army was Cornwallis at Yortown in 1781. An army of 10,000 surrendered to the tune of "The World Turned Upside Down"

Off-hand I can't honestly think of another capitulation on that scale in British history, unless you count some WW2 surrenders like Calais in 1940 or Arnhem in 1944, but they were much smaller.
 
Every time this is bought up I harp on about the same thing so I'll summarise it now.

Percival had the preparation time and the forces to hold Malaya and Singapore for much longer than he did. Enough naval strength was deployed to the theatre to achieve a measure of success. Put these two things together and you change the entire course of the Pacific war.

What woud be better? Matador done to the best of their ability or Force Z succeeding in it's mission? I assume that both will be eventually defeated but would give considerable benefits.
 
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