The Raid on Scapa Flow - or something else... AHC

I just realised that I am getting way off topic here, sorry for that!

So where are we with the status of submarine and aircraft raids upon Scapa flow and other points of interest? We know know that in OTL the Germans could and did hit SF without insurmountable difficulties due to range/long overwater flights, so the extra 6-12 months posited here will not be needed to make such small, and limited effect raids possible, but rather to make a much larger, and presumably repeatable series of raids possible, that in combination may whittle down the RN home fleet bit by bit, force their deployments to be less optimal, and thus opening up greater leeway for the hopelessly outgunned and outnumbered Kriegsmarine surface units to be able to function more effectively, and earlier, and longer, until they simply are so outproduced that they become irrelevant?
 
GAT, I’m not saying it worked. I’m saying it didn’t work. Something needs to be broke before it Can be fixed.
I’m curious though. Who do you think got the better deal in the 1934 crisis?
 
GAT, I’m not saying it worked. I’m saying it didn’t work. Something needs to be broke before it Can be fixed.
I’m curious though. Who do you think got the better deal in the 1934 crisis?

Hitler, by far. Schacht tied himself to the regime, which meant Hitler just fired him in 1938/39 (not quite sure when). Britain thought Schacht was the voice of reason, so even gave Germany a loan. The problem if it breaks badly is that Germany needs hard currency to buy food for the cattle- Germany didn't produce enough, plus the raw materials for exports. Farmers slaughtering cattle reminds everyone of the 1917-1919 years, the army hasn't sworn the personal oath yet (was in 1935), Hitler hasn't torn up the Versailles Treaty or built an army capable of resisting Poland, let alone France, or have any foreign policy triumphs like the Saar rejoining or re-militarizing the Rhine. And if there's a trade war going on, no one will loan Germany money either. No way to test it without god-like powers, but a hard crash seems far more likely than a soft crash- no idea what that would look like. Hitler pretty much got the max OTL he could have- he backed down, but got a loan and time to consolidate his power.
 

hipper

Banned
I just realised that I am getting way off topic here, sorry for that!

So where are we with the status of submarine and aircraft raids upon Scapa flow and other points of interest? We know know that in OTL the Germans could and did hit SF without insurmountable difficulties due to range/long overwater flights, so the extra 6-12 months posited here will not be needed to make such small, and limited effect raids possible, but rather to make a much larger, and presumably repeatable series of raids possible, that in combination may whittle down the RN home fleet bit by bit, force their deployments to be less optimal, and thus opening up greater leeway for the hopelessly outgunned and outnumbered Kriegsmarine surface units to be able to function more effectively, and earlier, and longer, until they simply are so outproduced that they become irrelevant?

I’ve been reading Alfred’s Prices instruments of Darkness he pointedly put that they Germans probably used radio beams to navigate the North Sea towards Scapa Flow thoug in daylight and good weather it’s easy enough to find.

The German surface fleet was always irrelevant as it could not have a strategic effect in the Atlantic. It could have produced a strategic effect in the Artic ocean but it was hopelessly mismanaged.
 
Hitler, by far. Schacht tied himself to the regime, which meant Hitler just fired him in 1938/39 (not quite sure when). Britain thought Schacht was the voice of reason, so even gave Germany a loan. The problem if it breaks badly is that Germany needs hard currency to buy food for the cattle- Germany didn't produce enough, plus the raw materials for exports. Farmers slaughtering cattle reminds everyone of the 1917-1919 years, the army hasn't sworn the personal oath yet (was in 1935), Hitler hasn't torn up the Versailles Treaty or built an army capable of resisting Poland, let alone France, or have any foreign policy triumphs like the Saar rejoining or re-militarizing the Rhine. And if there's a trade war going on, no one will loan Germany money either. No way to test it without god-like powers, but a hard crash seems far more likely than a soft crash- no idea what that would look like. Hitler pretty much got the max OTL he could have- he backed down, but got a loan and time to consolidate his power.
So we agree on OTL. And I agree it was a dangerous situation. By far the easiest time to prevent WW2.
Now tell me, Will it be easier or more difficult to tell your creditors that the bills cant be paid before or after you start a publicised autobahn project and a massive rearmaments programme?
The 1934 crisis could have been handled earlier, before they actually had no forex, it was just a matter of extending a downward headed development. The solution post 1934, to restrict import and require counter purchase if imports that were made could have been implemented earlier as well. They acted efficiently, but so late that it did interfere with rearmament. A shift in attention is not unimaginable.
 
So we agree on OTL. And I agree it was a dangerous situation. By far the easiest time to prevent WW2.
Now tell me, Will it be easier or more difficult to tell your creditors that the bills cant be paid before or after you start a publicised autobahn project and a massive rearmaments programme?
The 1934 crisis could have been handled earlier, before they actually had no forex, it was just a matter of extending a downward headed development. The solution post 1934, to restrict import and require counter purchase if imports that were made could have been implemented earlier as well. They acted efficiently, but so late that it did interfere with rearmament. A shift in attention is not unimaginable.

Sorry, I'm really confused. If Germany runs out of hard currency, then Hitler is removed. He doesn't have the political capital yet to tell the nation "sorry, guess we get to relive winter 1918 again!" Tooze mentions how foreigners accused Schacht of exacerbating the problem, which he was. How will TTL creditors have more faith in Germany, short of checking every bank? Also pretty sure for the Nazis, breaking the loans (which were for the reparations part of the Versailles Treaty remember) was as much dogma as trying to save cash. And when banks are failing in the US and UK, why should others care about starving Germans? The solution post 1934 was really the only solution, so I'm not sure where you are going with your post. And creditors would tell the Nazis what Mellon told America in 1930 (liquidate everything to purge out the bad loans), what creditors today, from homeowners during the 2007-09(ish) crash to when the IMF bails out nations- they force horrendous cuts, then they give money/ relax loans terms. Not before the cuts. And I recommend checking up on what the German policy was during 1930-32: can't unpeg from the dollar- loans are in dollars, so costs more marks to pay same loan in dollars, plus the populace hates inflation after 1923. So, painful deflation for everyone. IE, govt spending gets cut. You seem to be far too kind to Germany's creditors. A better POD would be Hitler accepting France's offer of a loan- forget what the French terms were, Tooze mentioned it. The problem is Germany doesn't have *enough* cash, not that they should run out of money sooner. Or implement the 1934 currency controls in 1932, somehow. Still only saves about a year and some though, since Hitler has to be Chancellor first.

And sorry to the posters and lurkers, I am off topic. We can continue here or a new thread if want.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Gosh, I wonder why all those 1930's financial guys didn't think of that...
Because, that's, what they exactly were :
1930's financial guys who had "learned" their buisness during and before WW 1, for who the Gold Standard was still the "gold standard" of international financial relations, who praised Brüning for his desatrous deflationary policies. At this time Maynard Keynes was still far from being canon - quite the opposite.

Don't argue from hindsight, from lessons in global as well as national finance and economics still to be learnt in 1932/1933.
 
Sorry, I'm really confused. If Germany runs out of hard currency, then Hitler is removed. He doesn't have the political capital yet to tell the nation "sorry, guess we get to relive winter 1918 again!" Tooze mentions how foreigners accused Schacht of exacerbating the problem, which he was. How will TTL creditors have more faith in Germany, short of checking every bank? Also pretty sure for the Nazis, breaking the loans (which were for the reparations part of the Versailles Treaty remember) was as much dogma as trying to save cash. And when banks are failing in the US and UK, why should others care about starving Germans? The solution post 1934 was really the only solution, so I'm not sure where you are going with your post. And creditors would tell the Nazis what Mellon told America in 1930 (liquidate everything to purge out the bad loans), what creditors today, from homeowners during the 2007-09(ish) crash to when the IMF bails out nations- they force horrendous cuts, then they give money/ relax loans terms. Not before the cuts. And I recommend checking up on what the German policy was during 1930-32: can't unpeg from the dollar- loans are in dollars, so costs more marks to pay same loan in dollars, plus the populace hates inflation after 1923. So, painful deflation for everyone. IE, govt spending gets cut. You seem to be far too kind to Germany's creditors. A better POD would be Hitler accepting France's offer of a loan- forget what the French terms were, Tooze mentioned it. The problem is Germany doesn't have *enough* cash, not that they should run out of money sooner. Or implement the 1934 currency controls in 1932, somehow. Still only saves about a year and some though, since Hitler has to be Chancellor first.

And sorry to the posters and lurkers, I am off topic. We can continue here or a new thread if want.
Its really simple. Noone except Schacht and the Reichsbank new how bad the finances were in 1934. They had to take Germanys Word for it.
So, rather than running out of Money and having the credibility problem from simultaneously paying for large government Investment, they could say 6 months earlier: We are out of Money. And then do what they did IOTL 6 months early.

About the creation of Money, I'll quote Churchill:
Germany’s most unforgivable crime before the Second World War was her attempt to extricate her economic power from the world’s trading system and to create her own exchange mechanism which would deny world finance its opportunity to profit.
 
I just realised that I am getting way off topic here, sorry for that!

So where are we with the status of submarine and aircraft raids upon Scapa flow and other points of interest? We know know that in OTL the Germans could and did hit SF without insurmountable difficulties due to range/long overwater flights, so the extra 6-12 months posited here will not be needed to make such small, and limited effect raids possible, but rather to make a much larger, and presumably repeatable series of raids possible, that in combination may whittle down the RN home fleet bit by bit, force their deployments to be less optimal, and thus opening up greater leeway for the hopelessly outgunned and outnumbered Kriegsmarine surface units to be able to function more effectively, and earlier, and longer, until they simply are so outproduced that they become irrelevant?

I’ve been reading Alfred’s Prices instruments of Darkness he pointedly put that they Germans probably used radio beams to navigate the North Sea towards Scapa Flow thoug in daylight and good weather it’s easy enough to find.

The German surface fleet was always irrelevant as it could not have a strategic effect in the Atlantic. It could have produced a strategic effect in the Artic ocean but it was hopelessly mismanaged.

Posts on topic, so were are we. I've taken as many lessons as I could and started a TL. They could basically do more than what they did IOTL, but a lot of randomness applies and they needed luck as well to do more than a Little beyond OTL without a lot of extra resources. They could prepare better for naval aviation with butterflies in Norway as well, which may be bigger than those from a raid on an empty Scapa Flow. A midget submarine force is interesting, but would take more time. It would certainly have been leaked to the British without a pod handling the British agent as well. Then Again, the Walther submarines were leaked and no countermeasures were planned, so its not that easy. I think the British military commanders were good, but somewhere between intelligence, decision makers and commanders, most intelligence got lost.

I'm still after intelligence issue which is critical for the amount of luck required. The rumors the home fleet sayling around after in early september were all false and I am wondering if they were planted. 800 bombers assembled in North West germany during the poland invasion is some hefty claim as is the BC, two deutschlands and destroyers breaking out. I think the Germans tried to keep RN away from operations in Poland, but I cant find the source. The prime naval intelligence asset in Germany was killed by the end of the month, so something was cooking.

Anyways, the thread has been enjoyable, and generally in good spirits.
 
I've been looking through my notes on the development of Anti-Aircraft Command, which was the British Army's contribution to the Air Defence of Great Britain. It had the anti-aircraft guns and searchlights. While the barrage balloons belonged to the RAF and controlled by the imaginatively named RAF Balloon Command.

There was a grand total of 695 heavy anti-aircraft guns in AA Command at the outbreak of World War II. 425 of these were modern 4.5" and 3.7" weapons while the rest were. There were also 253 light anti-aircraft guns and 2,700 searchlights. RAF Balloon Command had 624 barrage balloons.

Scapa Flow was defended by 8 HAAG and another 28 were in the Forth. By 11th July 1940 the number of HAAG at Scapa Flow had been increased to 88.

On 31st July 1940 there was No 948 (Balloon) Squadron, RAF with an establishment of 24 balloons at Rosyth and No 950 (Balloon) Squadron, RAF with an establishment of 32 balloons Lyness (i.e. Scapa Flow).
 
Total Requirement for Heavy AA Guns at:
Jan. 35 - 456
Jun. 36 - 608
Feb. 37 - 1,264
Feb. 39 - 1,584
May. 39 - 2,232
03.09.39 - 695 - Actual Strength​

Of which for Scapa Flow
Jan. 35 - nil
Jun. 36 - 8
Feb. 37 - 8
Feb. 39 - 8
May. 39 - 24
03.09.39 - 8 - Actual Strength​

Of which for Forth (Rosyth)
Jan. 35 - nil
Jun. 36 - 16
Feb. 37 - 48
Feb. 39 - 48
May. 39 - 96
03.09.39 - 28 - Actual Strength​
 
I've been looking through my notes on the development of Anti-Aircraft Command, which was the British Army's contribution to the Air Defence of Great Britain. It had the anti-aircraft guns and searchlights. While the barrage balloons belonged to the RAF and controlled by the imaginatively named RAF Balloon Command.

There was a grand total of 695 heavy anti-aircraft guns in AA Command at the outbreak of World War II. 425 of these were modern 4.5" and 3.7" weapons while the rest were. There were also 253 light anti-aircraft guns and 2,700 searchlights. RAF Balloon Command had 624 barrage balloons.

Scapa Flow was defended by 8 HAAG and another 28 were in the Forth. By 11th July 1940 the number of HAAG at Scapa Flow had been increased to 88.

On 31st July 1940 there was No 948 (Balloon) Squadron, RAF with an establishment of 24 balloons at Rosyth and No 950 (Balloon) Squadron, RAF with an establishment of 32 balloons Lyness (i.e. Scapa Flow).

Total Requirement for Heavy AA Guns at:
Jan. 35 - 456
Jun. 36 - 608
Feb. 37 - 1,264
Feb. 39 - 1,584
May. 39 - 2,232
03.09.39 - 695 - Actual Strength​

Of which for Scapa Flow
Jan. 35 - nil
Jun. 36 - 8
Feb. 37 - 8
Feb. 39 - 8
May. 39 - 24
03.09.39 - 8 - Actual Strength​

Of which for Forth (Rosyth)
Jan. 35 - nil
Jun. 36 - 16
Feb. 37 - 48
Feb. 39 - 48
May. 39 - 96
03.09.39 - 28 - Actual Strength​

Thanks, these are really usefull numbers. Were did you get this info?
 
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