The Qing Dynasty defeats Japan. Consequences to WWI?

[Vinization]

The First Sino-Japanese War, which confirmed the transition of the Empire of Japan from what was once an isolated country to one of the great powers of the world, was a closer affair than the numbers suggest. At the Battle of the Yalu River, for example, four Japanese cruisers were severely damaged, even though the Beiyang Fleet suffered from huge amounts of incompetence and corruption, with many shells being full of cement or porcelain rather than gunpowder.

So let's say the Qing Navy is better managed and they win this crucial battle. Once that is done, the Japanese troops in Korea would likely be defeated, since they probably wouldn't get all the supplies they need from the home islands. The war ends around the time it did IOTL, except this time it's a Qing victory rather than a Japanese one, so they get to reap the military glory and reparations.

But my main question, as shown in the title, is this: how would such a turn of events affect the First World War? The Russo-Japanese War obviously wouldn't happen, so would Britain still see Russia as a potential ally against Germany? The Revolution of 1905 wouldn't happen without such an embarrassing defeat, so the Russian Empire would retain its absolute monarchy in 1914.

Finally who would the Qing (they would probably survive since they won't be forced to pay a crushing indemnity of 200 million taels and can invest this money on their modernization) side with, the Entente or the Central Powers? I could see Germany, in spite of kaiser Wilhelm II's "yellow peril" nonsense, try to court them so as to provide a huge, powerful ally against the Russians. My gut says Beijing would side with the Entente for fear of antagonizing Britain. Or stay neutral and sell supplies to the highest bidder.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

A Russo-Japanese War is unlikely so the Imperial Russian Army could wander into a general european war with an unreformed army. In such circumstance Austria-Hungary probably clocks Russia so hard in Galicia/Congress Poland that Italy's opportunistic side-picking goes the other way.

 

[Bregil]

I suspect that the Qing court would be strongly neutral in the case of WW1 breaking out so long as their borders were respected. Without the clear loss of the Mandate of Heaven as evidenced by the OTL First Sino-Japanese War, the Qing would not only maintain power but almost certainly still see itself as aloof from the affairs of the "barbarians" in Europe.

 

[A Piece of History]

The Russo-Japanese War obviously wouldn't happen, so would Britain still see Russia as a potential ally against Germany?

This alone has more butterflies than just Britain's relationship with Russia.

Without the Russo-Japanese War, Japan would remain a isolated nation that no one takes notice of. It was their victory in the Russo-Japanese War that made people pay attention to Japan, which they previously described as "weak, childish and feminine",

Russian defeat in the Russo-Japanese War made nations in the Balkans think twice about their reliance on Russia. Japan's victory encouraged the Bulgarians to start thinking they could win a war against the Ottoman Empire, which they did in the First Balkan War.

The Russo-Japanese War basically Japan a false sense that Westerners were weak and would give up without much of a fight. During the war, the Japanese used banzai charges against the Russians at Port Arthur. Though this resulted in huge casualties, the Japanese won the war in the end, so they decided to keep using banzai charges, which led to high Japanese casualties in World War II.

After the war, Tsar Nicholas II began spending large amounts of money on building a large navy over a ten year period. The Duma opposed this plan and the Duma and the Tsar bickered endlessly. As a result, by 1914, the Tsar never got the fleet he wanted, only a few ships. This was money that was wasted that could've gone to support the Russian Army.

So without a Russo-Japanese War, you have Japan not being noticed by the outside world, a potential butterfly of the First Balkan War and the Russian Army potentially recieving more support from the Tsar. This war would probably look very different from OTL, since it was the Balkan Wars that set up the stage for World War I.

The Revolution of 1905 wouldn't happen without such an embarrassing defeat, so the Russian Empire would retain its absolute monarchy in 1914.

I don't know about that, the Tsar was notoriously deaf when it came to the needs of the average Russian citizen. He was still under the control of his uncle, Grand Duke Sergei, who, for example, told him to attend a ball one day after the Khodynka Tragedy. Russia's losses in the Russo-Japanese War simply tipped the Russian people over the edge. I think something else would've set them off.

My gut says Beijing would side with the Entente for fear of antagonizing Britain. Or stay neutral and sell supplies and such to the highest bidder.

My gut says the same. I do not see any reality in which the Qings choose to side with the Central Powers. Germany doesn't have anything they can give the Qing and as you pointed out, Wilhelm was extremely racist. In fact, in OTL, he said about Qingdao

It would pain me to give Qingdao to the Japanese, then it would to give Berlin to the Russians

Assuming Qingdao is still conceded to the Germans in 1898, the Qing would almost certainly want Qingdao back, so I see war between China and Germany as inevitable.

 

[Vinization]

Oh yeah, Japan would remain an mostly obscure country in the eyes of the Great Powers, with the Qing getting most of the attention. Instead of asking whether this or that place could "pull a Meiji", people would as whether (insert random country here) could develop its own version of the Self Strengthening Movement.

Didn't Germany get Qingdao as a consequence of the Boxer Rebellion? Said rebellion probably wouldn't happen here.

As for Russia, didn't they get some talented statesmen every now and then, such as Sergei Witte and Pyotr Stolypin? Butterflies could prevent the former's removal from power and the latter's assassination.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Didn't Germany get Qingdao as a consequence of the Boxer Rebellion? Said rebellion probably wouldn't happen here.

No, it was taken in 1898 in response to the murder of two priests. That said a stronger, stabler, more confident China may avoid such an incident entirely, or better fend off Germany's demands.

 

[Vinization]

No, it was taken in 1898 in response to the murder of two priests. That said a stronger, stabler, more confident China may avoid such an incident entirely, or better fend off Germany's demands.

Another reason for them to stay neutral or support the Entente.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Another reason for them to stay neutral or support the Entente.

idk, the UK, France, and especially Russia (which is presumably getting its teeth kicked in far worse than OTL) have much more Chinese territory

 

[A Piece of History]

As for Russia, didn't they get some talented statesmen every now and then, such as Sergei Witte and Pyotr Stolypin? Butterflies could prevent the former's removal from power and the latter's assassination.

In OTL, even after designing Russia's first constitution, Witte was forced to resign in 1905 because of the royal court's opposition to legitimate reform. Keep in mind that the Tsar only agreed to a constitution after his uncle, Grand Duke Nikolai, threatened suicide. Nicholas would later say that caving to Witte's demands was a humiliation and even after he abdicated, he thought that being forced to cave into a 'railway clerk' was a greater humiliation. You can change the leaders all you want, but the ball was always in the Tsar's court (pun not intended). It was he who decided if Russia should reform. This would not change just because there is no Russo-Japanese War.

Stolypin was assassinated after his resignation from the Duma, so I don't think there would be much difference.

idk, the UK and France, and especially Russia (which is presumably getting its teeth kicked in far worse than OTL) have much more Chinese territory

I don't think the Qing would take the chance of siding against the countries who are already carving them up like a melon. If the Central Powers lose, then China will be further humiliated for backing Germany. This is not counting the fact that with British India and Indochina next door, some of the fighting will probably occur on the Chinese mainland itself.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I don't think the Qing would take the chance of siding against the countries who are already carving them up like a melon. If the Central Powers lose, then China will be further humiliated for backing Germany. This is not counting the fact that with British India and Indochina next door, some of the fighting will probably occur on the Chinese mainland itself.

There's no way the Entente can win if Russia hasn't undergone it's post RJW military modernizations, China probably joins once that becomes apparent. Also, the UK probably isn't in the Entente in a TL where the massive Imperial Russian Navy isn't at the bottom of the sea.

 

[Karelian]

Russian elites had been drinking the Kool-Aid of Mahan before Russo-Japanese War, and would continue to do so without the war.

 

[RMcD94]

I don't think the Qing would take the chance of siding against the countries who are already carving them up like a melon. If the Central Powers lose, then China will be further humiliated for backing Germany. This is not counting the fact that with British India and Indochina next door, some of the fighting will probably occur on the Chinese mainland itself.

Are there any timelines or threads where this is discussed because for all people talk of fears of carving up China or partitioning it I don't really know if the chances of this occurring were a realistic event at all. Look at the Sino-French war, at no point even after strings of victories did France really seem like it was going to be able to carve chunks out of China. Russia annexing Manchuria, Mongolia (even Inner Mongolia) and Xinjiang? Sure, I can see that. Japan and other coastal powers taking extra territory, sure. But the whole river valleys? Xi'an being held by a foreign power? Just seems unlikely and I'm pretty sure most people around the time were aware that carving the melon really meant slightly better or larger territories