The Pythagorean NFL Part 2: The Strike Years

Now for the NFC standings following Week 15, beginning in the East:

Cowboys: 10-4
Redskins: 10-4
Eagles: 6-8
Giants: 6-8
Cardinals: 5-9

The Eagles hold the expected wins tiebreaker over the Giants for third place, 6.4 to 5.6.

The Cowboys hold the expected wins tiebreaker over the Redskins for first place, 9.9 to 9.7.

Now, the Central:

Packers: 11-3 (clinched)
Vikings: 7-7
Buccaneers: 7-7
Lions: 7-7
Bears: 3-11 (eliminated)

The Vikings hold the expected wins tiebreaker for second place with 7.2, followed by the Buccaneers with 6.9 and the Lions with 6.6.

Finally, the West:

49ers: 8-6
Falcons: 7-7
Rams: 6-8
Saints: 5-9

Seeds:

1. Packers: 11-3 (NFC Central champs)
2. Cowboys: 10-4 (NFC East leaders)
3. 49ers: 8-6 (NFC West leaders)
4. Redskins: 10-4 (NFC East second place)
5. Vikings: 7-7 (NFC Central second place)

The Vikings hold the expected wins tiebreaker over the Falcons for the second wild card, 7.2 to 7.1.

Next: The broadcast schedule for Week 16.

Thoughts?
 
Here's the broadcast schedule for Week 16 (original Week 4):

Sunday, November 7:

Colts-Lions, 1, NBC- Marv Albert, Jim Turner
Browns-Redskins, 1, NBC- Charlie Jones, Len Dawson
Oilers-Jets, 1, NBC- Jay Randolph, Bob Griese
Patriots-Bills, 1, NBC- Phil Stone, Gene Washington
Dolphins-Bengals, 1, NBC- Dick Enberg. Merlin Olsen
Vikings-Bears, 1, CBS- Tim Ryan, Johnny Morris
Rams-Cardinals, 1, CBS- Dick Stockton, Roger Staubach
Eagles-Packers (Milwaukee), 1, CBS- Jack Buck, Hank Stram
Saints-Raiders, 4, CBS- Tom Brookshier, Wayne Walker
Giants-Cowboys, 4, CBS- Pat Summerall, John Madden
Chiefs-Seahawks, 4, NBC- Merle Harmon, Mike Haffner
Chargers-Falcons, 4, NBC- Don Criqui, John Brodie
Steelers-Broncos, 4, NBC- Bob Costas, Bob Trumpy

Monday, November 8:

49ers-Buccaneers, 9, ABC- Frank Gifford, Fran Tarkenton, Howard Cosell

Next: Week 16's Sunday early games.

Thoughts?
 
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Here are Sunday's early games from Week 16:

Eagles 26, Packers 23 (OT)

Tony Franklin's twenty-seven yard field goal on the final play of overtime lifted the Eagles to a huge upset win and left them with at least a mathematical chance in the NFC wild card race. The Pack was on its way to putting the game away leading 23-16 with a little over five minutes to play when Lynn Dickey's pass intended for John Jefferson was picked off by Herm Edwards, who raced sixty-seven yards for the tying touchdown. The other interception thrown by Dickey ended up costing the Pack the game, as cornerback Roynell Young stepped in front of Paul Coffman and picked off the pass intended for him. He sped all the way down to the Green Bay ten with just four seconds left in overtime, enough time for Franklin's foot to win the game.

The Philly offense was led by Harold Carmichael, who caught four passes for 127 yards, including a ninety-eight yard touchdown catch-and-run in the second quarter. Jaworski finished thirteen of twenty-two for 250 yards including the Carmichael big play. Ron Smith, who has been the main receiver for the Eagles over the last few weeks, added five catches for sixty-five yards. The Packer defense did its job on the Philly running game, holding Wilbert Montgomery to thirty-seven yards on sixteen carries. Perry Harrington's forty-six yards on eight carries led the way for Philly instead. The defense did its job as well, sacking an already injured Dickey six times, including three from Dennis Harrison. Despite the rough treatment he received, Dickey had a tremendous day, hitting on eighteen of his twenty-six passes for 295 yards and a touchdown to James Lofton. Eddie Lee Ivery was back on track, gaining 115 yards on twenty-four carries, while Jefferson caught five passes for ninety-eight yards and Lofton five more for seventy-seven. Phillip Epps added seventy-three yards on three catches. The game might have come down to a rare extra-point miss from Jan Stenerud, who hit the left upright with his PAT attempt after Dickey's touchdown pass to Lofton in the first quarter.

The Eagles are still a longshot to make the playoffs even with this win, and coach Dick Vermeil told his team after the game that this season will be his last regardless of how the Eagles finish. As of now, he's looking at a prime-time finale next Monday night at Three Rivers Stadium against the Steelers. The Pack blew its chance to wrap up the top seed in the NFC and get two weeks off for itself, since next week's game in Chicago would have been canceled. They'll need help from the Giants, whom the Cowboys must lose to later today for the Pack to gain home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. (They hold the expected wins tiebreaker over the Cowboys.)

PHI: 7-8 (at PIT 11/15)
GB: 11-4 (at CHI)

Bears 13, Vikings 10

Make it two major upsets so far, as the Bears stunned the Vikes and threw the race for the NFC's second wild card into even greater chaos. Walter Payton had a huge day, slicing and dicing the Purple People Eaters for 118 yards on fourteen carries. Second-in-command Matt Suhey added fifty more yards on ten carries. The Bears didn't get a lot from Jim McMahon; he completed ten of twenty-two passes for 112 yards and was sacked five times.. But it was his third-quarter touchdown pass to wide receiver Ken Margerum that tied the game at ten. John Roveto's forty-one yard field goal midway through the final period provided the winning margin. Emery Moorehead led the Bears with four catches for thirty-seven yards.

The Vikes got a good day from Ted Brown, who gained eighty-two yards on seventeen carries. Fellow running back Tony Galbreath scored from six yards out in the first quarter. Tommy Kramer could complete only thirteen of his thirty-one passes for 177 yards, and was picked off twice by cornerback Terry Schmidt. Sammy White led all receivers with seventy-nine yards on four catches.

The wild card race is so chaotic that it will be impossible to handicap until all the reports from today's games are in. However, the Vikes have definitely lost the inside track to the second wild card, and they have to hope for help from some combination of the Chargers, Colts, and Niners to regain it. They finish their season next week by going head-to-head with the Bucs at Tampa Stadium.

CHI: 4-11 (vs. GB)
MIN: 7-8 (at TB)

Rams 34, Cardinals 17

The Rams are still hanging on to playoff hopes after drubbing the Cards at Busch Stadium. This one belonged to the running game, as Mike Guman rushed for ninety-eight yards on just ten carries and Wendell Tyler added ninety-five yards on sixteen carries. Both men scored touchdowns, with Guman's coming from twenty-one yards out and Tyler's from fourteen. Bert Jones started at quarterback for the second week in a row, but he was plagued by a sore arm all day and only completed twelve of his twenty-six passes for 151 yards and was intercepted twice. On the good side, he threw short touchdowns to Willie Miller and tight end Mike Barber.

Neil Lomax was better in a losing cause; he completed fifteen of thirty-three for 239 yards, but was also picked off twice. He was also sacked four times, with linebacker George Andrews recording two of them. Ottis Anderson rushed for ninety-two yards on twenty-ne carries, and scored on a thirty-five yard run in the third quarter. Pat Tilley led all receivers with six catches for eighty-seven yards, while Roy Green added eighty-one yards on just three catches.

The Rams host the Falcons next Sunday in what all of a sudden is shaping up as a do-or-die game for both teams. The Cardinals have been eliminated, and they'll make the trip to the Meadowlands to face the Giants next Sunday only if the game impacts the G-Men's playoff hopes.

LA Rams: 7-8 (vs. ATL)
STL: 5-10 (at NYG)

Lions 37, Colts 3

The Lions had a good time with the Colts, who played like a team that had spent the last week picketing in front of team facilities instead of practicing. Gary Danielson completed fourteen of his twenty-two passes for 176 yards and a pair of touchdown passes, and added a three-yard touchdown run to boot. Billy Sims was also a dual threat, gaining ninety-one yards on twenty-two carries to lead the rushing attack and catching five passes for forty-seven yards and a touchdown to lead all receivers. Danielson's other scoring pass went to Leonard Thompson. Robbie Martin returned a punt sixty-seven yards for a touchdown, his second of the year. Three Bob Thomas field goals finished he scoring for the home squad.

Art Schichter started at quarterback for Baltimore, and he was awful all day long, completing just eight of his seventeen passes for ninety-nine yards and throwing three interceptions. Reserve defensive back Bobby Watkins picked him off twice. Each of his eight completions went to a different receiver. Miraculously, he was only sacked once. Zack Dixon led the rushing "attack" with forty-four yards on seven carries.

The Lions are the clubhouse leaders in the fight for the second wild card in the NFC, but they'll have to sweat out both the Chargers-Falcons game later today and tomorrow night's clash between the Niners and Bucs to see just how much next week's finale in Miami will mean to them. As for the Colts, they're waiting for the Patriots-Bills result to see if they'll need to play next week's home date against Buffalo at all.

DET: 8-7 (at MIA)
BAL: 2-12 (vs. BUF)

Bills 28, Patriots 13

The Bills accumulated 263 yards rushing and scored three times on the ground as they steamrollered the listless Pats. Joe Cribbs rushed twenty-two tomes for 127 yards and scored from thirty-seven yards out early in the first quarter, while running mate Roosevelt Leaks amassed 118 yards on fifteen carries and scored twice. This meant that Joe Ferguson only threw when he had to, and he completed twelve of his twenty-four passes for 134 yards with a Hail Mary touchdown to Frank Lewis from fifty-three yards out on the final play of the first half. Lewis finished his day with three catches for seventy-five yards.

As for the Pats, Steve Grogan was awful in the first half, and his replacement Matt Cavanaugh wasn't much better in the second half. They combined to complete just eight of twenty-five passes for 103 yards and were picked off three times. Stanley Morgan was the most productive receiver with three catches for thirty-five yards. On the bright side, Tony Collins outrushed both Cribbs and Leaks, gouging the Bills' defense for 140 yards on eighteen carries. Mark van Eeghen added sixty-one yards on ten carries, including a forty-one yard touchdown burst in the third quarter. The offensive line managed to get Grogan sacked only twice and kept Cavanaugh completely clean, but it didn't do much good. Coach Ron Meyer refused to name a starter for the season finale against the Bengals next Sunday at Schaefer Stadium. For their part, the Bills need a ton of help in order to play next week's game against Baltimore, which they'll only do if they're still in playoff contention.

BUF: 8-7 (at BAL)
NE: 5-10 (vs. CIN)

Jets 50, Oilers 0

The Jets won this one before the Oilers ever got off the bus. They were certainly good for whatever was ailing Richard Todd, who completed eighteen of twenty-seven for an even three hundred yards and four touchdowns. Jerome Barkum caught two of Todd's touchdown throws, while Wesley Walker and backup wide receiver Derrick Gaffney snagged one apiece. Walker caught five passes total on the afternoon for 108 yards. But it was Freeman McNeil who truly stole the show, finishing the day with twenty-two carries for 241 yards and two touchdowns. He could have threatened Walter Payton's record of 275 yards for a game if coach Walt Michaels hadn't taken him out of the game for his own safety after three quarters. Mike Augustyniak took his place and ended up with sixty-one yards on ten carries plus a touchdown. The only concern for the Jets was the continued extra-point problems of Pat Leahy, who missed two more today in much calmer winds than last week's.

The Oilers, meanwhile, ended up throwing Gifford Nielsen to the wolves. He completed only eleven of thirty-one passes for 137 yards and threw three interceptions. The New York Sack Exchange got to him only three times, but he was hurried into more than a few bad throws and was knocked down after almost every pass. Earl Campbell was the lone offensive bright spot, as he picked up seventy-one hard-fought yards on eighteen carries. The lone defensive bright spot was backup linebacker John "Sack Man" Corker, who recorded eleven tackles.

What exactly the Jets will be playing for next week when they host the Broncos will be known later today, but they'll win the AFC East today if the Bengals beat the Dolphins in Cincinnati. They could be playing for home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs if the Raiders are upset by the Saints later.

NYJ: 11-4 (vs. DEN)
HOU: 2-11 (at KC)

Redskins 20, Browns 13

Unlike the Colts and Oilers, the Browns came back from their union-imposed layoff ready to play, and the Skins were pushed to the limit before scoring thirteen points in the fourth quarter to take the victory. Joe Theismann was limited by the stomach flu, but he still completed nine of his thirteen passes for 118 yards and a touchdown pass to John Riggins, who also rushed for eighty-eight yards and a touchdown on nineteen carries. Joe Washington added another score on the ground. It was Riggins' one-yard touchdown plunge with 2:44 left in regulation that decided the issue. Brian Sipe had a good day through the air for Cleveland, completing twenty of thirty-four for 229 yards and a touchdown to wide receiver Dave Logan. But it was Ozzie Newsome who was Sipe's main target; he pulled in eight passes for 107 yards. Wide receiver Ricky Feacher added fifty-six yards on four catches. Sipe's and Newsome's performances masked a poor day from the running game, as Mike Pruitt was held to just forty-one yards on twenty carries.

The Skins are eagerly awaiting next Sunday's possible showdown for the NFC East title against the Cowboys at Texas Stadium, while the Browns will only play next week's season finale against the Raiders in Los Angeles if the Raiders haven't wrapped up the top seed in the AFC before that.

WSH: 11-4 (at DAL)
CLE: 3-10 (at LA Raiders)

Bengals 14, Dolphins 7

Kenny Anderson's six-yard touchdown pass to Isaac Curtis with 1:53 to play was the winning score, and it means that the Bengals are still very much alive for an AFC wild card berth and the Jets are the AFC East champs. Anderson had his usual patently efficient game, completing seventeen of twenty-four for 178 yards and the winning touchdown. Cris Collinsworth was his main target, catching six passes for sixty-eight yards, and Dan Ross caught five more passes for sixty yards. Pete Johnson scored the other Cincy touchdown on an eighteen-yard gallop in the first quarter, and finished with sixty-three yards on nineteen carries.

David Woodley didn't lose this one for the Dolphs, completing twelve of his twenty-three passes for 151 yards and throwing a third-quarter touchdown pass to Jimmy Cefalo that tied the game at seven. Cefalo ended up Miami's leading receiver for the day with three catches for thirty-nine yards. Andra Franklin fared much better on the ground with eighty-one yards on nineteen carries,

Both the Dolphins and Bengals are now 9-6, and they're the clubhouse leaders for the two AFC wild card spots. As of now, the Bengals would host if the two teams finished tied. But there are two more big games yet to be played that will determine just who will be playing for what in the AFC come Week 17: Chargers-Falcons and Chiefs-Seahawks.

CIN: 9-6 (at NE)
MIA: 9-6 (vs. DET)

Next: Sunday's late games from Week 16.

Thoughts?
 
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Right now, it looks like the Colts, Oilers, and Bills have the best chance to get Elway (the Bills get Cleveland's pick because of a 1982 trade involving LB Tom Cousineau, the #1 overall pick in 1979 by Buffalo. He went to Canada before being traded to Cleveland).
 
I don't mess with the draft in this universe, so the Colts will get Elway regardless. But the idea of Elway in Houston or Buffalo is intriguing. The Oilers wouldn't need Warren Moon, so where does he go, or does he stay in Edmonton? If you'll remember, one of the reasons he went to Houston was that his former coach in Edmonton, Hugh Campbell, needed a quarterback when he got to Houston. The Bills wouldn't need Jim Kelly either, so does he go to his hometown Steelers? Do the Dolphins take the ex-Hurricane, and if they do how much farther does Marino fall? Might Kelly go to the NFL without stopping in the USFL first? And would Elway play in either city, or would he force a trade like he did with the Colts?
 
The Oilers wouldn't need Warren Moon, so where does he go, or does he stay in Edmonton?

In 1984, the Oilers weren't the only team that was interested. The Seahawks and the Vikings were as well. If the Oilers had Elway, I think that Moon ends up in Seattle where he played his college ball. Then, I can see Dave Krieg getting traded eventually (to the Rams or Falcons or something).
 
Here are the Sunday late games from Week 16:

Seahawks 23, Chiefs 20

This one was a lot more competitive than their meeting at Arrowhead two weeks ago, but Norm Johnson's 23-yard field goal at the final gun put the Hawks into a tie with the Dolphins and Bengals in the AFC wild card race. The Chiefs led 14-0 at the half and 20-13 wit five minutes to play, but Theotis Brown's eleven-yard touchdown scamper with 4:13 to play tied the game at twenty and set up Johnson's heroics. Sherman Smith rushed for sixty-nine yards on eighteen carries to lead the Seattle ground game, and Jim Zorn completed sixteen of his twenty-nine passes for 206 yards and a touchdown to Steve Largent, who caught five passes for fifty-four yards. Paul Johns was the Hawks' leading receiver with three catches for sixty yards. The defense made stopping Joe Delaney its top priority, and he finished the day with only forty-seven yards on thirteen carries. Billy Jackson scored one rushing touchdown for Kansas City, and Henry Marshall scored from eighteen yards out on a reverse. Bill Kenney never really got going all day; he completed eleven of his seventeen passes, but threw for only 110 yards and an interception. Marshall was his leading receiver with four catches for forty-three yards.

As of this moment, the Seahawks are part of a three-way toe for the AFC's two wild card spots at 9-6 with the Dolphins and Bengals. We'll see how things shake out for sure once today's games are over. As for the Chiefs, their season is finished at 6-9, as their last game against the Oilers will be officially canceled on Monday morning. The Seahawks will finish their season at Jack Murphy Stadium in what could be a head-to-head battle for a wild card spot between themselves and the Bolts.

SEA: 9-6 (at SD)
KC: 6-9

Chargers 56, Falcons 17

The Chargers have made the tie for the AFC's wild card spots a four-way affair after they dismantled the Falcons before a disbelieving sellout crowd at Fulton County Stadium. They racked up 573 yards against the Atlanta defense, an astonishing 285 of which came on the ground. Chuck Muncie led the parade with 127 yards on seventeen carries and scored three touchdowns, while James Brooks carried eleven times for ninety-five yards and scored twice from forty and forty-two yards out. Reserve running back John Cappelletti added a sixth rushing touchdown for the day. Dan Fouts still did plenty of damage through the air, completing eighteen of twenty-three passes for 288 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Wes Chandler caught six passes for 142 yards, one of them a sixty-one yard touchdown strike. Charlie Joiner caught the other Fouts scoring pass.

Despite being literally run over by the Chargers, the Falcons' offense managed a decent day statistically. Steve Bartkowski matched Fouts nearly yard for yard, finishing twenty of thirty-four for 287 yards and a touchdown to Alfred Jackson. The bad news was that he was picked off twice and sacked four times, twice by defensive end Keith Ferguson. William Andrews had a great all-around performance, rushing sixteen times for sixty-nine yards and catching six passes for ninety-nine more. Lynn Cain scored the other Falcons touchdown with a short run.

The Chargers may be in the thick of the AFC wild-card race, but in the NFC the Falcons are now on the outside looking in. They're tied with the Vikings at 7-8, a game behind the Lions. By tomorrow night, they could be looking up at the Bucs as well if Tampa Bay can upset the Niners at home on Monday Night Football.

SD: 9-6 (vs. SEA)
ATL: 7-8 (at LA Rams)

Cowboys 29, Giants 7

The Boys kept pace with the Redskins heading into their winner-take-all showdown next week, while the Giants' season has come to a crashing halt. Danny White completed seventeen of his twenty-one passes for 202 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one to Tony Hill and the other to reserve wideout Butch Johnson, who also scored from fifty-four yards out on a reverse. The Big Blue defense neutralized Tony Dorsett, who ended his day with only thirty-eight yards on twenty-two carries. Johnson's touchdown run made him the Boys' leading rusher for the day, and his two catches for fifty yards made him the team's leading receiver as well.

Scott Brunner had a nice day for the Giants, completing thirteen of twenty-three for 204 yards and an interception. Floyd Eddings was the leading pass catcher with four receptions for seventy-four yards, ad fellow receiver Earnest Gray added sixty-two yards on three catches. Running back Rob Carpenter led the New York rushing attack with fifty-nine yards on fourteen carries. The bad news for Brunner was that he was sacked five times by the Doomsday defense. Linebacker Bob Breunig had two of the sacks, and one of them earned the Boys a safety.

The stakes for next week's Skins-Boys clash at Texas Stadium are simple: the winner takes the NFC East, the loser has to play in the Wild Card game, although they will host it. The Giants' final game against the Cardinals scheduled for next Sunday at the Meadowlands will officially be canceled on Monday morning.

DAL: 11-4 (vs. WSH)
NYG: 6-9

Saints 14, Raiders 7

We've had a few shocking upsets in the last six weeks, but this may be the most unexpected one of all. George Rogers scored the winning touchdown from thirteen yards out with fifty-two seconds to play for 240 yards and a touchdown pass to Kenny Duckett. Rogers was the Saints' leading rusher with fifty yards on eleven carries, and Jeff Groth led the passing game with five catches for fifty-nine yards. The defense held Marcus Allen to sixty-six yards on sixteen carries, although he did catch an eight-yard touchdown pass from Jim Plunkett for the Raiders' only points of the day. Plunkett finished fourteen of twenty-five for 177 yards with the touchdown to Allen and an interception. The Raider defense sacked Stabler six times, with defensive end Howie Long recording a pair.

The Raiders are now tied with the Jets for the AFC's top seed at 11-4, and the Steelers will join them if they beat the Broncos at Mile High. The Raiders welcome the Browns to the Coliseum next week, while the Saints try to keep their momentum going against the Niners at Candlestick Park.

LA Raiders: 11-4 (vs. CLE)
NO: 6-9 (at SF)

Steelers 23, Broncos 6

The Steelers forced a three-way tie for the AFC's top seed with a workmanlike victory over the punchless Broncos. Franco Harris managed sixty-six yards on seventeen carries, and Cliff Stoudt, starting in place of the injured Terry Bradshaw for the second week in a row, completed nine of his seventeen passes for 122 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one each to Lynn Swann and Frankie Pollard. Rookie kicker Gary Anderson made three field goals to complete the Pittsburgh scoring. The Steel Curtain sacked Steve DeBerg five times, with Jack Lambert notching a pair. DeBerg completed eighteen of thirty-four for 170 yards with an interception; Steve Watson was his leading receiver with five catches for fifty-seven yards. Gerald Willhite led the running game with nine carries for forty-five yards. On a defensive note, former Steeler safety J.T. Thomas recorded the Broncos' lone interception of the day.

The Steelers will finish their season next week at Three Rivers against the Eagles, though there's a chance that the game could be moved from Monday night to Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the Broncos finish their disappointing season next Sunday at Shea Stadium against the Jets.

PIT: 11-4 (vs. PHI TBD)
DEN: 4-10 (at NYJ)

Next: A look at the AFC playoff picture heading into Week 17.

Thoughts?
 
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Here's a rundown of the AFC playoff picture at the moment. We begin with the standings:

East:

Jets: 11-4 (clinched)
Dolphins: 9-6
Bills: 8-7
Patriots: 5-10 (eliminated)
Colts: 2-12 (eliminated)

Central:

Steelers: 11-4 (clinched)
Bengals: 9-6
Browns: 3-10 (eliminated)
Oilers: 2-11 (eliminated)

West:

Raiders: 11-4 (clinched)
Chargers: 9-6
Seahawks: 9-6
Chiefs: 6-9 (eliminated)
Broncos: 4-10 (eliminated)

The Jets, Raiders, and Steelers are tied for the top seed at 11-4. The Jets hold the expected wins tiebreaker, as they have 11.4 to the Steelers' 11.2 and the Raiders' 10.9. Here are the scenarios:

1. If the Jets win, they get home field advantage no matter what the Raiders and Steelers do. The Steelers would host the Raiders in the AFC Divisional Playoff the weekend of January 15-16.

2. If the Steelers win and the Jets lose, the Steelers get home field no matter what the Raiders do. The Jets would host the Raiders in the divisional round.

3. If both the Steelers and Jets lose and the Raiders win, the Raiders get home field, and the Jets would host the Steelers in the divisional round.

4. If the Jets and Raiders win and the Steelers lose, the Raiders would host the Steelers in the divisional round.

Now let's sort out the wild card mess:

1. The Bengals and Chargers are in the lead with 8.9 expected wins. If they both win next week, they're the wild cards. Since the Chargers beat the Bengals earlier this year, they'd host the game at Jack Murphy Stadium the weekend of January 8-9.

2. The Seahawks-Chargers game next week is a play-in game. If they win, the Seahawks will either host the Dolphins or travel to Cincinnati, while the Chargers will host all three possible opponents. The loser is out of the playoffs altogether. There is a chance that the game could be played on Monday night, depending on the NFC playoff picture after tomorrow night's Niners-Bucs game.

3. The Dolphins can only make the playoffs if two of the three teams in front of them lose. The Seahawks have 8.7 expected wins, while they have 8.5. One team is guaranteed to lose between the Hawks and Chargers, so the Fins need to win and hope the Bengals lose in Foxborough against the Patriots. The Fins host the Lions at the Orange Bowl.

4. The Bills, who have 8.4 expected wins, can only make the playoffs if they beat the Colts and the Bengals and Dolphins lose. They would visit the Seahawks-Chargers winner in the Wild Card Game.

5. The game between the Oilers and the Chiefs scheduled for Kansas City next Sunday is no longer needed, so it has been canceled due to the lack of a collective bargaining agreement.

I think I've covered everything. If I missed something, or if anyone has any questions, please don't hesitate to ask!

Next: The Monday night game between the Niners and Bucs.

Thoughts?
 
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I'm not actually going to ask, but it is so tempting to ask what if the Seahawks and Chargers tie. :) ALthough, come to think of it, I think you said you eliminated ties for this universe. And now I'm sure you're really glad, as it's one less bit of confusion.

This is just like a real NFL playoff race with all those quirky possibilities. Funny thing is, there was a play-in game the last week of 1982 OTL, also. The Bills and Patriots played the last (rescheduled) eek, week 9. Each was 4-4, as were the Browns. ghe Browns were going to make the playoff eitehr way, if memory serves (it was the first season I followed the NFL really closely, though, so I might be off a bit.) And, the only way the Browns could be knocked out was if they lost and the Bills and Patriots tied.
 
The funny thing is, WhatIfSports actually allows ties. But in order to make the math come out right for expected wins, I had to get rid of them. What I do in case of a tie (which is still rare) is run another sim and take the first score (touchdown, field goal, or safety) that comes up.
 
Here's the action for Monday, November 8:

Buccaneers 38, 49ers 13

The Bucs joined the Lions at the top of the NFC wild card race after their shellacking of the NFC West leaders. The Niners actually led 13-7 at halftime before the Bucs buried them under an avalanche of thirty-one unanswered points in the second half. Doug Williams stole the quarterbacking spotlight away from Joe Montana, hitting on eighteen of twenty-eight passes for 307 yards and three touchdowns. The scoring tosses went to Jimmie Giles, James Wilder, and former Steeler T. Bell. Giles led the Bucs' receiving corps with sixty-four yards on three catches, while Kevin House caught four balls for sixty yards. Reserve Gerald Carter had sixty more yards on just two catches. James Owens led the way on the ground with sixty yards on fourteen carries plus a touchdown, and Wilder contributed fifty-eight yards on fourteen carries and another score. The Bucs' defense teed off on Montana, sacking him five times; Lee Roy Selmon led the way with a pair. Joe still had a halfway decent evening, completing fifteen of twenty-four passes for 187 yards with a pair of touchdowns and an interception. One of the touchdowns went to Dwight Clark, the other to Russ Francis. Clark was the Niners' leading receiver with six catches for sixty-nine yards and a touchdown. But the running game couldn't get anything going; Jeff Moore was the leading rusher with thirty-nine yards on eleven carries.

The Niners lost a golden opportunity tonight; if they'd won, they would have clinched the NFC West title and gotten two weeks off, as next week's season finale against the Saints would have meant nothing and thus been canceled. Instead, they have to beat the Saints in order to guarantee not only the division title, but a playoff berth. We'll discuss the Bucs in our next post, which details the NFC playoff picture going into Week 17.

TB: 8-7 (vs. MIN)
SF: 8-7 (vs. NO)

Next: The NFC playoff picture.

Thoughts?
 
Now for the NFC playoff picture. Let's start with the standings going into Week 17:

East:

Cowboys: 11-4
Redskins: 11-4
Eagles: 7-8
Giants: 6-9 (eliminated)
Cardinals: 5-10 (eliminated)

Central:

Packers: 11-4 (clinched)
Buccaneers: 8-7
Lions: 8-7
Vikings: 7-8
Bears: 4-11 (eliminated)

West:

49ers: 8-7
Falcons: 7-8
Rams: 7-8
Saints: 5-10 (eliminated)

Let's start with the seeding scenarios for the division winners:

1. The Packers will get home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs if they beat the Bears, regardless of who wins the NFC East.

2. The winner of the NFC East will get home field if the Bears beat the Packers; otherwise, they'll be the second seed and host the NFC West winner in the NFC Divisional Playoff the weekend of January 15-16. The loser will host the NFC Wild Card Game the weekend of January 8-9.

3. The NFC West champion is guaranteed the three seed.

Now let's go to the NFC West:

1. The Niners will win it if they beat the Saints, regardless of anything else.

2. If the Niners lose, the winner of the game between the Falcons and the Rams in Anaheim is the division champion. The Rams have 7.3 expected wins, the Falcons 7.1. The loser will be out of the playoffs altogether.

Now let's untangle the wild card mess:

1. The loser of the NFC East is guaranteed the first wild card and will host the NFC Wild Card Game as detailed above.

2. The Buccaneers will make the playoffs if they beat the Vikings, regardless of what the Lions may do, The two teams are tied at 8-7, but the Bucs have the expected wins tiebreaker, 7.9 to 7.6.

3. The Vikings will make the playoffs if they beat the Bucs and the Lions and Rams both lose. They have 7.2 expected wins, so they'll win the tiebreaker with the Falcons even if the Falcons beat the Rams.

4. The Lions will make the playoffs if they beat the Dolphins and the Vikings beat the Bucs, regardless of what happens anywhere else.

5. Even if the Niners win the NFC West, the Rams can still make the playoffs if they beat the Falcons and the Lions, Bucs, and Eagles all lose. Even with a Vikings' win, the Rams would still hold the expected wins tiebreaker, 8.3 to 8.2.

6. The Eagles have 7.4 expected wins. Thus, they'll make the playoffs if they beat the Steelers and the Lions and Bucs both lose. Even if the Rams win, the Eagles would still hold the expected wins tiebreaker, 8.4 to 8.3.

7. The Niners will either win the NFC West or miss the playoffs. They have 7.6 expected wins, so they won't win any tiebreakers.

(I know this is a bit out of order, but YOU try doing this and making it come out right!)

Finally, the game between the Cardinals and the Giants scheduled for the Meadowlands is meaningless and has thus been canceled due to the lack of a collective bargaining agreement.

If anyone has questions, or if I've missed something, please don't hesitate to tell me.

Next: The broadcast schedule for Week 17.

Thoughts?
 
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Here's the broadcast schedule for Week 17:

Sunday, November 14:

Bengals-Patriots, 1, NBC- Don Criqui, John Brodie
Broncos-Jets, 1, NBC- Charlie Jones, Len Dawson
Packers-Bears, 1, CBS- Tim Ryan, Johnny Morris
Lions-Dolphins, 1, CBS- Jack Buck, Hank Stram
Vikings-Buccaneers, 1, CBS- Dick Stockton, Roger Staubach
Bills-Colts, 4, NBC- Bob Costas, Bob Trumpy
Browns-Raiders, 4, NBC- Jay Randolph, Bob Griese
Seahawks-Chargers, 4, NBC- Dick Enberg, Merlin Olsen
Redskins-Cowboys, 4, CBS- Pat Summerall, John Madden
Saints-49ers, 4, CBS- Tom Brookshier, Wayne Walker
Falcons-Rams, 4, CBS- Jim Kelly, John Dockery

Monday, November 15:

Eagles-Steelers, 9, ABC- Frank Gifford, Don Meredith, Howard Cosell

(Note: If this game is not needed, ABC will rebroadcast the best of their three college football games from Saturday, November 13: Penn State at Notre Dame, LSU at Mississippi State, or San Diego State at BYU,)

Next: We're going to go by conference instead of game time this week, so we'll start with the NFC.

Thoughts?
 
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Now let's settle the NFC playoff picture. We begin with the battle for seeding among the division leaders:

Packers 27, Bears 20

The Pack will have home field advantage in the NFC playoffs, but getting it was harder than anyone ever dreamed. The fired-up Bears, who were looking for their second big upset in a row, led 17-7 after one quarter and 20-10 at halftime, mostly thanks to a scintillating forty-seven yard touchdown run by Walter Payton. It was still 20-13 Chicago after three quarters, but the Pack tied things up on a one-yard plunge by Eddie Lee Ivery and won the game with forty-six seconds to play on an eleven-yard touchdown pass from Lynn Dickey to John Jefferson. Dickey finished his day twenty of twenty-seven for 297 yards with the touchdown to Jefferson, who caught five balls for ninety-six yards. Ivery had a very impressive all-around day, rushing sixteen times for fifty-three yards and a score and also catching three passes for sixty-two yards. Del "Popcorn" Rogers added fifty-one yards on six carries, and rooking running back Mike Meade scored from a yard out in his only carry of the day.

For the Bears, Payton ended his season in fine style, carrying fifteen times for eighty yards and a touchdown. Fellow running back Matt Suhey was dangerous in the flat, catching four passes for fifty yards and a touchdown to lead the Chicago receivers. Jim McMahon finished his rookie year on a not-too-shabby note, completing fifteen of his twenty-five passes for 182 yards and the touchdown to Suhey. If today is any indication, the Bears' defense will be a force to be reckoned with in future years; they sacked Dickey seven times, with defensive tackle Jim Osborne recording a pair.

The Pack will face the winner of the NFC Wild Card Game the weekend of January 15-16 at Lambeau Field.

GB: 12-4
CHI: 4-12

Cowboys 31, Redskins 13

The Boys took the NFC East in a romp, which means that they'll get a home game in the divisional round and the Skins will be hosting the Wild Card Game. Even more impressive is that the Boys won so easily without quarterback Danny White, who was limited to punting duty due to back spasms. Backup quarterback Gary Hogeboom only had to throw twelve times, but completed seven of them for ninety-nine yards and a pair of touchdowns. One was a short five-yard toss to Billy Joe DuPree, the other a sixty-two yard bomb to wide-open tight end Doug Cosbie. But Tony Dorsett was, as usual, the main man, carrying nineteen times for 173 yards. About the only positive for the Washington defense was that they held him without a touchdown. Robert Newhouse made up for that with a forty-five yard touchdown gallop, and reserve running back Timmy Newsome scored on a one-yard plunge.

For their part, the Doomsday defense made Joe Theismann's life miserable, sacking him five times. Theismann ended up completing only fifteen of his thirty-one passes for 173 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Charlie Brown caught the touchdown pass, and Art Monk led the passing game for the visitors with five catches for sixty-five yards. John Riggins had his usual fabulous day on the ground, carrying twenty-two times for 115 yards and a touchdown.

DAL: 12-4
WSH: 11-5

Now let's determine the NFC West champion. We begin at Candlestick Park:

49ers 24, Saints 7

The Niners are your NFC West champs for 1982, and they'll go to Dallas to face the Cowboys in the divisional round. Joe Montana picked apart the Saints' defense all day long, completing twenty-one of thirty for 287 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one each to Mike Wilson and Freddie Solomon. However, it was Dwight Clark who remained Joe Cool's favorite target; he caught six passes for ninety-nine yards. Jeff Moore led the ground attack with seventy yards on thirteen carries, and backup Bill Ring carried nine times for forty-two yards and a touchdown.

The Niners' defense held George Rogers to thirteen yards on nine carries, but Wayne Wilson picked up the slack, carrying thirteen times for eighty-seven yards and a touchdown. Kenny Stabler didn't finish a surprisingly good season on a pleasant note; he only completed twelve of thirty-one passes for 184 yards and was intercepted once and sacked three times. Jeff Groth was the Saints' leading receiver with four catches for eighty-eight yards. For all the good it did them, the Saints' defense also sacked Montana three times.

SF: 9-7
NO: 5-11

Vikings 9, Buccaneers 7

Rick Danmeier's 49-yard field goal with only one second left gave the Vikes the win they needed to keep their wild card hopes alive. He had hit earlier in the game from thirty-four and thirty-two yards out. Despite balmy temperatures and favorable winds for passing, this game was very much a runners' showcase; Tommy Kramer completed just nine of his twenty-one passes for 139 yards, while Doug Williams was held to just four of fourteen for ninety-nine yards and was intercepted once. One of Williams' completions was a sixty-one yard touchdown strike to Gordon Jones that accounted for the Bucs' lone score. James Owens managed fifty-five yards on ten carries for the home squad, but James Wilder was held in check by the Purple Gang, gaining only eleven yards in eleven carries. Ted Brown didn't fare much better for the victors, as he was limited to thirty-four yards on eighteen carries. Jones' touchdown catch made him the leading receiver for Tampa, while Ahmad Rashad, in what could be his final NFL game, led the Vikes with fifty-two yards on two catches. One reason Kramer and Williams were ineffective were the respective pass rushes; the Tampa defense dumped Kramer five times, while the Purple Gang sacked Williams four times.

The Vikings now lead the race for the second wild card with 8.2 expected wins. They still have to hope that the Lions, Rams and Eagles all lose in order to make the postseason. As for the Bucs, they go from the inside track to the second wild card to the outside looking in, permanently.

MIN: 8-8
TB: 8-8

Lions 22, Dolphins 21

Bob Thomas kicked a twenty-one yard field goal with forty-six seconds to play that sent the Lions into the NFC playoffs and eliminated the Dolphins from the AFC playoffs. Thomas also hit from fifty-six yards out on the final play of the first half. But the real hero for Detroit was, as usual. Billy Sims. He carried twenty-four times for 182 yards and also caught five passes for forty-nine yards. Much like Tony Dorsett was against the Redskins, he was held out of the end zone, but Dexter Bussey made up for it by scoring from four yards out. Gary Danielson was made a sitting duck for the Killer Bees by his throbbing knee and was sacked three times and picked off four times, but still managed to find David Hill for a touchdown.

The Detroit defense held Andra Franklin to only fifty-seven yards on twenty-two carries, which put too much pressure on quarterback David Woodley. He wasn't up to it, completing only eleven of his twenty-one passes for 134 yards. He threw a pair of touchdown passes, but was also sacked four times and picked off twice. His touchdown passes went to Duriel Harris and Joe Rose, while little-used running back Eddie Hill scored the other Miami touchdown on a sixteen-yard scamper. Harris was the Dolphs' leading receiver with fifty-seven yards on four catches, while veteran Nat Moore caught three passes for forty-eight yards. Kicker Uwe von Schamann added to the home squad's woes by missing field goals from forty-three and forty-six yards, either one of which could have provided the winning points.

Correcting what I said earlier, both Wild Card Games will be held on Sunday, January 9. Whether the Lions' clash with the Redskins will be the early game or the late game will be determined once the AFC playoff picture is settled.

DET: 9-7
MIA: 9-7

Eagles 16, Steelers 10

The Eagles sent Dick Vermeil out a winner and put the Steelers in danger of not having a home game in the upcoming AFC playoffs. Ron Jaworski's nine-yard touchdown pass to reserve running back Louie Giammona midway through the fourth quarter was the winning score. Jaworski finished the night sixteen of thirty for 227 yards and the touchdown to Giammona. But it was Ron Smith who led the Philly receivers, pulling in five passes for ninety-three yards. The Steel Curtain did a nice job containing the Philly running game, but Wilbert Montgomery still managed fifty-three yards on nineteen carries, while Perry Harrington added forty-two yards on ten totes.

The good news for the Steelers was that Terry Bradshaw returned as their quarterback; the bad news was that his injured elbow was bothered by the cold. He was off-target and in pain all evening, finishing eleven of twenty-eight for 175 yards and two interceptions. He managed a fifteen-yard touchdown pass to Jim Smith late in the first half. His longest completion was for forty-eight yards to Bennie Cunningham, but forty-three of that was a bruising broken-field run by the Steelers' tight end. Franco Harris wasn't much help, as he was held to forty-three yards on eighteen carries by the opportunistic Eagles' defense. Cunningham's catch-and-run made him Pittsburgh's leading receiver for the night.

By the time this game was played, the Steelers knew exactly which seed they were playing for. We'll find that out next time, but after this loss they have no chance of being the top seed even if the Jets lost against the Broncos. They'll play the Raiders in the divisional round no matter what; if the Browns managed to upset the Silver and Black, the game will be at Three Rivers. Otherwise, it will be at the LA Coliseum.

PHI: 8-8
PIT: 11-5

In other games:

Falcons 31, Rams 27

Alfred Jackson's thirty-six yard touchdown scamper on a reverse with no time left spoiled the return of Vince Ferragamo, who threw three touchdown passes for the Rams in a losing cause.

ATL: 8-8
LA Rams: 7-9
 
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Here are the NFC's final standings for 1982:

East:

Cowboys: 12-4
Redskins: 11-5
Eagles: 8-8
Giants: 6-9
Cardinals: 5-10

Central:

Packers: 12-4
Lions: 9-7
Vikings: 8-8
Buccaneers: 8-8
Bears: 4-12

The Vikes take third place in the Central over the Bucs by virtue of the expected wins tiebreaker, 8.2 to 7.9.

West:

49ers: 9-7
Falcons: 8-8
Rams: 7-9
Saints: 5-11

Seeds:

1. Packers: 12-4 (NFC Central champs)
2. Cowboys: 12-4 (NFC East champs)
3. 49ers: 9-7 (NFC West champs)
4. Redskins: 11-5 (NFC East second place)
5. Lions: 9-7 (NFC Central second place)

The Packers are the top seed over the Cowboys by virtue of the expected wins tiebreaker, 12.0 to 11,7.

In the Wild Card Game, the Redskins romped over the Lions 31-7 behind Joe Theismann's three touchdown passes to wide receiver Alvin Garrett. Dick Stockton and Roger Staubach called the game for CBS. The Redskins will now move on to battle the Packers on January 15 at Lambeau Field. Kickoff is at 12:30 PM Eastern on CBS, with Jack Buck and Hank Stram calling the action. The Niners and Cowboys will clash on Sunday, January 16 at Texas Stadium, with kickoff set for 4PM Eastern. Pat Summerall and John Madden will be on hand for that one.

Next: We settle what's left of the AFC playoff picture.

Thoughts?
 
Now let's settle the rest of the AFC playoff picture. We begin at Shea Stadium:

Jets 20, Broncos 6

The Jets wrapped up the AFC's top seed with a win over the dispirited Broncos. For once, it was Richard Todd who starred on offense, as he completed thirteen of twenty-two for 227 yards and two touchdowns. One went to Derrick Gaffney, while the other went to Freeman McNeil. McNeil also carried twenty-two times for seventy-one yards. Wide receiver Johnny "Lam" Jones led the passing game with sixty-eight yards on three catches. and Mike Augustyniak caught three more for forty-nine yards. The New York Sack Exchange showed its playoff form as well, sacking quarterbacks Steve DeBerg and Craig Morton five times. The Denver passers completed only twelve of their thirty-five attempts for 139 yards; Deberg was knocked out of the game with a separated shoulder early in the third quarter, and Morton, who as it turned out was playing in his final NFL game, completed as many passes to Jets defenders as he did to his own receivers (two). Steve Watson caught five first-half passes from DeBerg for sixty-seven yards to lead the passing game, while Rick Parros was the Broncos' leading rusher with fifty-six yards on eleven carries.

The Jets will host the Wild Card winner on the weekend of January 15-16 here at Shea Stadium.

NYJ: 12-4
DEN: 4-11

Raiders 28, Browns 7

The Raiders easily defeated the Browns to lock up the two seed in the AFC and a home game in the divisional round against the Steelers. Marcus Allen finished his rookie regular season with a tremendous all-purpose game, rushing twenty-one times for exactly one hundred yards and a touchdown and catching four passes for sixty-two yards and another touchdown. Kenny King gained fifty-three yards on twelve carries and scored a touchdown, and Jim Plunkett completed fifteen of his twenty-four passes for exactly two hundred yards with a pair of touchdowns and an interception. Todd Christensen caught his other scoring pass.

For the visitors, Brian Sipe was bedeviled by the Raider pass rush all afternoon, and could complete only twelve of his thirty-one passes for 180 yards. His stats were padded by a fifty-five yard catch-and-run for a touchdown by Charles White, which gave the Browns their only points of the day. Mike Pruitt was held to just forty-four yards on fifteen carries, but he did well in the passing game, catching three passes for fifty-three yards. White ended up the Browns' leading receiver with sixty-one yards on two catches.

According to one league source, the Steelers-Raiders game will probably be on January 15 so the league can celebrate the anniversary of Super Bowl I, which took place at the Coliseum on January 15, 1967. Nothing official has been decided, however.

LA Raiders: 12-4
CLE: 3-11

Bengals 20, Patriots 13

The Bengals will be one of the wild card teams, as they came from behind to beat the surprisingly tough Pats. Kenny Anderson threw a twenty-one yard touchdown pass to Cris Collinsworth for the wining touchdown with 1:53 left in regulation. What makes this miraculous is that Anderson battled back spasms all day and could barely throw the football. He only attempted eight passes, completing five for ninety-nine yards and the touchdown. Collinsworth caught four of the passes for eighty-three yards, with tight end M.L. Harris catching the other. Under these circumstances, the Bengals needed a big day from their running game, and they got it. Pete Johnson gained 105 yards in thirteen carries, and Charles Alexander added forty-six yards on eight carries and scored a touchdown.

The defense did its job as well, holding Tony Collins to thirty-five yards on nineteen carries. Mark van Eeghen led the New England running game with sixty-two yards on twelve carries. Matt Cavanaugh was Pats coach Ron Meyer's surprise choice as the starting quarterback, and he wasn't bad, completing twelve of twenty-seven for 173 yards and a touchdown, which came on a thirty-six yard Hail Mary to Preston Brown on the final play of the first half and gave the Pats a 10-7 halftime lead. The defense added to Anderson's discomfort by sacking him six times. Linebacker Clayton Weisuhn recorded a pair.

The Bengals will play in the AFC Wild Card Game on January 9. What's left to be decided is whether they'll have to travel to San Diego to face the Chargers or stay at home to take on the Seahawks. The Bengals' win also means that the Bills have been eliminated.

CIN: 10-6
NE: 5-11

Chargers 31, Seahawks 21

In Week 11, the Hawks came back from down 31-7 in the third quarter to stun the Chargers at the Kingdome. Today, it was the Bolts' turn, as they scored twenty-four points in the final nine minutes to stun the Hawks and punch their ticket to the playoffs. Dan Fouts led the way, completing twenty of thirty for 254 yards and three touchdowns, two of which came during the comeback. The first one was a fifteen-yarder to Charlie Joiner that cut the Seattle lead to 21-14, and the second was a ten-yarder to Kellen Winslow that gave the Chargers a 24-21 lead with 2:47 to play. Joiner caught the other Fouts scoring pass as well, and finished with five catches for seventy yards. Wes Chandler led all receivers with seven receptions for 113 yards. Winslow ended up with six catches for sixty yards. On the ground, Chuck Muncie gained seventy-two yards on seventeen carries and scored a touchdown. Safety Tim Fox was the defensive standout for the Chargers, as he intercepted Jim Zorn twice.

Zorn completed fourteen of twenty-seven for 194 yards and two touchdowns; one went to Steve Largent, the other to Theotis Brown. Largent led the Seattle receivers with four catches for fifty-one yards, and Paul Johns added three catches for forty-eight more. Brown gained thirty-seven yards on eight carries with a touchdown, and Sherman Smith managed thirty-seven yards on thirteen carries. Zorn managed to survive without injury despite being sacked four times.

The AFC Wild Card Game will have a 4PM Eastern kickoff on Sunday, January 9, with Charlie Jones and Len Dawson calling the action for NBC.

SD: 10-6
SEA: 9-7

Elsewhere:

Bills 24, Colts 0

Roosevelt Leaks ran wild against his former team with 155 yards on sixteen carries and a touchdown, and Joe Cribbs gained seventy-five yards on twenty-six carries and scored twice. The Colts crossed midfield only twice all day.

BUF: 9-7
BAL: 2-13

Next: Final standings and seeds for the AFC.

Thoughts?
 
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Here are the AFC's final standings for 1982:

East:

Jets: 12-4
Bills: 9-7
Dolphins: 9-7
Patriots: 5-11
Colts: 2-13

The Bills take second place because they hold the expected wins tiebreaker over the Dolphins, 9.4 to 8.5.

Central:

Steelers: 11-5
Bengals: 10-6
Browns: 3-11
Oilers: 2-11

West:

Raiders: 12-4
Chargers: 10-6
Seahawks: 9-7
Chiefs: 6-9
Broncos: 4-11

Seeds:

1. Jets: 12-4 (AFC East champs)
2. Raiders: 12-4 (AFC West champs)
3. Steelers: 11-5 (AFC Central champs)
4. Chargers: 10-6 (AFC West second place)
5. Bengals: 10-6 (AFC Central second place)

The Jets hold the expected wins tiebreaker for the top seed over the Raiders, 12.4 to 11.9.

The Bengals and Chargers each have 9.9 expected wins, but the Chargers take the four seed because they defeated the Bengals head-to-head.

Next: We'll get to the 1982 playoffs shortly, but first I want to do Week 16 (original Week 3) of the 1987 season. We'll set up the playoff picture in both conferences next time.

Thoughts?
 
Now let's set up the final week of the 1987 season. Here's the AFC playoff picture:

East:

Indianapolis Colts: 10-5 (+1)
New England Patriots: 8-7 (0)
Miami Dolphins: 8-7 (0)
New York Jets: 7-8 (+1)
Buffalo Bills: 6-9 (-1)

The Colts have clinched the division title.

The Patriots hold the expected wins tiebreaker over the Dolphins for second place, 8.3 to 8.2.

Central:

Cleveland Browns: 11-4 (+1)
Houston Oilers: 7-8 (-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-8 (-1)
Cincinnati Bengals: 5-10 (+1)

The Browns have clinched the division title.

The Oilers hold the expected wins tiebreaker over the Steelers for second place, 7.4 to 7.1.

West:

Denver Broncos: 10-5 (0)
Seattle Seahawks: 9-6 (0)
Los Angeles Raiders: 8-7 (+3)
San Diego Chargers: 6-9 (-2)
Kansas City Chiefs: 5-10 (+1)

Let's start with the one division that hasn't been won yet, the AFC West.

1. If the Broncos beat the Browns on Monday night, September 28 at Municipal Stadium in Cleveland, they win the West no matter what the Seahawks might have done on Sunday, September 27.

2. The Seahawks need to beat the Chargers on Sunday at Jack Murphy Stadium in San Diego and hope for a Broncos loss the following night. The two teams would then be tied at 10-6, and the Seahawks would hold the expected wins tiebreaker, 10.0 to 9.9.

3. The second-place finisher in the West is guaranteed a playoff spot.

Here are the playoff seeds in the AFC to the moment:

1. Browns: 11-4 (AFC Central champs)
2. Broncos: 10-5 (AFC West leaders)
3. Colts: 10-5 (AFC East champs)
4. Seahawks: 9-6 (AFC West second place)
5. Patriots: 8-7 (AFC East second place)

The Patriots hold the expected wins tiebreaker for the second wild card over the Raiders, 8.7 to 7.9.

The Broncos hold the tiebreaker for the two seed over the Colts, 9.9 to 9.5.

First, let's untangle the mess that is the wild card race:

1. If the Patriots beat the Redskins on Sunday in Foxborough, they're in the playoffs no matter what anyone else does.

2. The Dolphins make the playoffs if they beat the Giants at Joe Robbie Stadium and the Pats lose.

3. The Raiders get in if they beat the Oilers at the Astrodome and both the Dolphins and Pats lose.

4. The Oilers, with 7.4 expected wins, will make it if they beat the Raiders and both the Pats and Dolphins lose.

5. Despite being a game behind the Pats at 7-8, the Jets and Steelers have been eliminated. The Steelers only have 7.1 expected wins, the Jets just 6.8.

6. If either the Pats or Dolphins win and the Seahawks lose, the team that wins will host the Hawks in the Wild Card Game. The Pats would have 9.3 expected wins, the Fins would have 9.2. and the Hawks 9.0.

7. The Jets-Steelers game scheduled for Pittsburgh is meaningless and has been canceled.

Now for the seeding among the division leaders:

1. Win or lose, the Browns have locked up home field advantage in the AFC.

2. The Broncos will get the two seed and a home game in the divisional round if they beat the Browns, no matter what the Colts do.

3. The Colts will get the two seed if they beat the Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis on Sunday and the Broncos lose.

4. The Seahawks will get the two seed if they beat the Chargers and the Broncos and Colts both lose.

Next: We sort out the NFC playoff picture.

Thoughts?
 
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