The Prussian-Bavarian War of 1850

[Darkest]

- In the Revolutions of 1848, the German Confederation was dissolved. Prussia took the initiative to set up the Erfurt Union in its wake, in which it would replace Austria's position as the head of the organization.
- A conflict broke out between the Electoral Prince of Hesse-Kassel and his subjects. Austrian chancellor Schwartzenberg sought to strike a blow against Prussia, and invaded Electoral Hesse to settle the question of who was the authoritative power.
- Near Bronzell, at the height of the tensions, the Prussian army comes near to engaging Bavara, over common incidents related to the chaos throughout the region.

So, let's say that Tsar Nicholas I is thrown from a horse just prior to the Revolutions of 1848, and his heir Tsar Alexander II takes power. Alexander is much more neutral during the entire affair, and he doesn't align Russia with Austria, nor does he threaten Prussia over trying to expand throughout the region.

Frederick doesn't feel invading Bavaria will cause Austria and Russia to come to the nations aid. He goes to war. The Austrian Empire will surely respond, and it is probable it will enter into war with Prussia... but it is still reeling from the chaos, especially with the Hungarian revolution... then again, so is Prussia.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Weren't the Austrians still fighting Sardinia and the Prussians Denmark at this time?

 

[Redbeard]

Weren't the Austrians still fighting Sardinia and the Prussians Denmark at this time?

The 1st Slesvig-Holsten war ended in 1850 after the rebel army was defeated at Isted in summer 1850, but before that official Prussian support for the rebels had been withdrawn after Great Power pressure. A Prussian general still commanded the rebel army however. The war was a Danish victory in the sense of the rebels not succeeding in achieving independence, but at the London conference in 1852 a lot of restrictions were put on Denmark making it more like a draw.

The First Italian War of Independence ended in mid 1849 with an Austrian victory.

By 1850 both Denmark and Austria ought to be ready for engaging Prussia if the opportunity should arise, and attacking Bavaria (or any other German state) would probably the most stupid thing to do. Not only because it hands opportunities to enemies on two flanks but also because it seriously damages the Prussian legitemacy as caretaker of the German cause. Most of the southern German states (incl. Saxony) would probbaly support Bavaria/Austria, as they did in 1866.

In this war the Prussian army will not have any technological advantage (no breechloading rifles or rifled artillery) and numerically they are even heavily outnumbered. The Austrian and Danish armies are probbaly spirited by their recent victories.

The only Prussian strategy I can see with any chance of success would be to strike first vs. the S.Germans and Austrians and hope to deal them a decisive victory soon. The S.Germans/Austrians will have to engage the Prussians to keep them out of Bavaria or Austria, and herin lies the Prussian hope, but judged from history the Austrians are unlikely to let themselves be decisively defeated.

If striking north first the Prussians will probably be able to occupy Jutland, but that will not end the war as long as the Danish army is intact and the Prussian army is in constant danger of being outflanked by a Danish army landed somewhere on the Jutland east coast.

If the S.Germans/Austrians are decisively defeated early the Danes are probably receptable to a peace agreement. If not decisive achievements can be gained on the south front the Danish blockade of the northern ports will soon be felt and the holding force in the north will probbaly be heavily engaged. At that time the Danish Army and politics had a rather aggressive doctrine (too aggressive it would show in 1864), and a Danish advance on Berlin will probably end the war soon. If not for other reasons then because London probably wants it so.

I understand the timeline so that Russia is in a rather passive stance, but I wonder if that could have Sweden try to regain a N.German foothold by joing Denmark - pan-Scandinavism after all was peaking in these years.

Anything but a decisive Prussian victory, which is rather unlikely, will mean great consequences for the time after. Prussia will be reduced to a medium power on par with Bavaria and Saxony and there will not be any strong united Germany in foreseeable future. The idea of a Gernan nation will of course not be dead, but without the victorious Prussian state and army to carry it through I doubt it will go much beyond some silly intelectuals.

The neigbouring great powers are likely to go on having Germany as their favourite battle- and pillaging ground however, and that might give the German nation another chance to grow up, just a 100 years later. The big question is if the PoDs set of in the Prussian-Bavarian war will split Germany too much to have it united later. N.Germany is certainly likely to be drawn much closer culturally and economically to UK, Netherlands and Scandinavia, and Bavaria is likely to draw the German Catholics close to her, in effect reinforcing the split between Catholics and Protestants.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

With Russia and (presumably) Britain staying out, might France not take Prussia's side to preserve the balance of power in Germany (and gobble up some Rhenish territory for its trouble)? The public would probably be very sympathetic to Prussia. This could also lead to Sardinia attacking Austria again, this time with French help, and Kossuth and his gang might attempt to return to Hungary from wherever they're hiding at this time (Turkey or Britain, I believe).

 

[Darkest]

I hadn't considered so many other powers joining in the fight. The Sardinians, French, and Prussians vs. the Austrians, Danes, and Swedes? Could be quite a war.

I'm not sure if Denmark is ready to rebound so quickly and march on Berlin. They've just come out of a war with Prussia. Still, a blockade would have the effect of damaging Prussia.

What German territory do you think Prussia would allow France to take?

 

[Redbeard]

I hadn't considered so many other powers joining in the fight. The Sardinians, French, and Prussians vs. the Austrians, Danes, and Swedes? Could be quite a war.

I'm not sure if Denmark is ready to rebound so quickly and march on Berlin. They've just come out of a war with Prussia. Still, a blockade would have the effect of damaging Prussia.

What German territory do you think Prussia would allow France to take?

The Danish Army was in excellent condition and in good spirit after the 1st SH war which it considered having won by a great margin (the military gains were nulified politically at the London conference in 1852 however). The Prussian Army did not have the respect it gained later, and certainly not in Denmark.

But I agree that this could quickly evolve into a larger war. Apart from the nations you mention there will be a number of lesser German nations, each however fielding a considerable army and most probably being on Bavarian/Austrian side. If the French get involved on Prussian side the last Prussian legitemacy in Germany is lost, which long term will have a huge effects, even if France/Prussia wins. With France involved the British will watch very closely, and I doubt will accept major French influence in N. Germany.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

What German territory do you think Prussia would allow France to take?

The Bavarian Palatinate and a free hand in Luxembourg, none of which are theirs. But they might have to give up Saarlouis, which is, to get France to join; president Bonaparte would certainly ask (like how he got Savoy and Nice in OTL).

If the French get involved on Prussian side the last Prussian legitemacy in Germany is lost,

I think that's back-projecting attitudes that would only appear years later. France is still the motherland of revolutions, while Austria is the evil oppressor of nations. Who do you think German nationalists would support?

 

[Susano]

Pff. Denmark would have no reason at all to strike at Prusisa. To think so is Denish wishful thinking stemming from the War of 1864. But then, Redbeard is known for just that.

Now... At that time, Prussia had a nice little project going on, the German Union. You see, after 1848, Prussia was the power who saves all the little German princes from revolution. It were Prussian troops who intervened everywhere. So Prrussia sought to unite them under its dominance in a "German Union". The roject failed when Austria returned to the international stage. Already it was plagued by troubles: Prussia was lackluster, and the Princes only agreed grumbingly, fearing revolution. But it was opposition by Russia and Austria which ended the thing. Now, without Russia in the picture...

So when Austria is past its revolutions and wars, there wont be a Treaty of Olmütz - the German Union does not et disbandd, the German Confederation does not get restored. Of course that does not mean all pricnes will be on Prussian side - they wont. However, 1848 is only two years ago, and Prussia can now play the nationalist card. It is feasible it gets together an alliance able to defeat Austria and her allies. Its just as likely Austrias alliance will win, though. So in any ATL, that would be up to the author.

 

[Communist Wizard]

Well, if that author was me, the Austrians would gets their butts kicked quite painfully . The Prussians were thought to be the best of the best, as they said...

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

So, let's say that Tsar Nicholas I is thrown from a horse just prior to the Revolutions of 1848, and his heir Tsar Alexander II takes power. Alexander is much more neutral during the entire affair, and he doesn't align Russia with Austria, nor does he threaten Prussia over trying to expand throughout the region.

Why Alexander II. should do nothing? Austria is a traditional russian ally.
The Russian Empire would help them.

 

[Nekromans]

Why Alexander II. should do nothing? Austria is a traditional russian ally.
The Russian Empire would help them.

Maybe a reverse of the Austrian excuse during the Crimean War - "We shall surprise the world with our ingratitude"?

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

The Prussians were thought to be the best of the best, as they said...

Not for another decade and a half. Nobody was praising the Prussian army in 1850.

 

[Redbeard]

Pff. Denmark would have no reason at all to strike at Prusisa. To think so is Denish wishful thinking stemming from the War of 1864. But then, Redbeard is known for just that.

Know for what? Please elaborate!

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Maybe a reverse of the Austrian excuse during the Crimean War - "We shall surprise the world with our ingratitude"?

And what ist the reason for this decision?

Austria thought it had a interest to prevent a stonger Russia but which interest Russia should have to weaken Austria.