The Prodigal Sons Return: The Progressives of Wisconsin and the Republican Party

[V-J]

A few observations which occur to me: Barry Goldwater is unlikely to be elected to the Senate in '52 ITTL. (He won 51-48 over Ernie MacFarland in a Republican cycle) Scott Lucas will quite possible be the Senate Majority Leader for most of the fifties. (Again, he lost in '50 in a good year for the GOP) George Smathers probably never successfully primaries Claude Pepper, and Wayne Morse almost certainly stays within the GOP.

Ah, butterflies..

 

[Plumber]

MacFarley's loss depended on him being a weak leader (same as Scott Lucas). If he's better at opposing Dewey effectively, then he wins. But he's not, so I think Goldwater will still get in.

 

[V-J]

MacFarley's loss depended on him being a weak leader (same as Scott Lucas). If he's better at opposing Dewey effectively, then he wins. But he's not, so I think Goldwater will still get in.

'52 was the year of Ike's landslide and the GOP taking control of the House, the year of massive Democratic fatigue after Truman's presidency, and the end of the Democrat lock on the presidency. The chance of Goldwater winning a race ITTL which he only won by three points in those OTL circumstances is pretty remote.

 

[Plumber]

'52 was the year of Ike's landslide and the GOP taking control of the House, the year of massive Democratic fatigue after Truman's presidency, and the end of the Democrat lock on the presidency. The chance of Goldwater winning a race ITTL which he only won by three points in those OTL circumstances is pretty remote.

MacFarland was reelected in 1946, an even bigger Republican year by 69.2 - 30.1. His defeat had everything to do with the national ridicule that he (and Scott, and pretty much everyone before LBJ) received as Majority Leader, since the real power in the Senate was Richard Russell.
Of LBJ's two predecessors, Scott Lucas was the tougher of the two, and I could see him barely edging out a victory in 1950. He seems like the type of person who would do well in opposition. His doctor noted that had he remained Majority Leader, he probably would have died of a heart attack within a year...

 

[V-J]

MacFarland was reelected in 1946, an even bigger Republican year by 69.2 - 30.1. His defeat had everything to do with the national ridicule that he (and Scott, and pretty much everyone before LBJ) received as Majority Leader, since the real power in the Senate was Richard Russell.
Of LBJ's two predecessors, Scott Lucas was the tougher of the two, and I could see him barely edging out a victory in 1950. He seems like the type of person who would do well in opposition. His doctor noted that had he remained Majority Leader, he probably would have died of a heart attack within a year...

If Scott Lucas does survive in '50, then MacFarland won't become majority leader, and bearing in mind your first paragraph, you've kind of made my argument for me.

I don't agree with the idea that it would all be attributable to MacFarland's personal performance in the senate though, that seems like a fanciful idea to me. Yes, he survived in '46, but these were the days when presidential coattails were real, and Ike took Arizona by nearly twenty points. '52 will have to be a similar blowout ITTL, otherwise Barry aint looking too hot.

 

[DanMcCollum]

A few observations which occur to me: Barry Goldwater is unlikely to be elected to the Senate in '52 ITTL. (He won 51-48 over Ernie MacFarland in a Republican cycle) Scott Lucas will quite possible be the Senate Majority Leader for most of the fifties. (Again, he lost in '50 in a good year for the GOP) George Smathers probably never successfully primaries Claude Pepper, and Wayne Morse almost certainly stays within the GOP.

Ah, butterflies..

Morse, actually, sounds like an interesting figure who, previously, I hadn't been much aware of (his Madison connections, make him ... particularly suitable for this TL, actually). I'm going to have to work with him in the future.
As for Goldwater. I don't want to give too much away, of course, but '52 might be a difficult year for him, yes.

 

[Plumber]

If Scott Lucas does survive in '50, then MacFarland won't become majority leader, and bearing in mind your first paragraph, you've kind of made my argument for me.

How?

MacFarland would have won reelection was he not revealed to be a rather poor Leader. Look at Sarah Palin and Rick Perry's reputations before and after they entered the presidential races of 2008 and 2012. But since I think 1952 will be a heavily Democratic year, he could be saved in a squeaker.

 

[V-J]

Morse, actually, sounds like an interesting figure who, previously, I hadn't been much aware of (his Madison connections, make him ... particularly suitable for this TL, actually). I'm going to have to work with him in the future.
As for Goldwater. I don't want to give too much away, of course, but '52 might be a difficult year for him, yes.

Awesome. Looking forward to the next update!

How?

Um, because of this:

MacFarland would have won reelection was he not revealed to be a rather poor Leader.

Scott Lucas ... I could see him barely edging out a victory in 1950.

You've already said that you believe Lucas will survive as majority leader. Ergo, MacFarland does not become majority leader, which you believe was the reason he was defeated IOTL. (Not that I agree with that, but that's your argument)

 

[Plumber]

You've already said that you believe Lucas will survive as majority leader. Ergo, MacFarland does not become majority leader, which you believe was the reason he was defeated IOTL.

Oh, it's possible. I'm not sure. If MacFarland isn't Leader, of course he wins. Sorry that wasn't clear.

Chapter 8.5

Cabinet of the Dewey Administration [FN1]
Secretary of State: Allen Welsh Dulles
Secretary of Agriculture: Usher Burdick
Attorney General: Charles Evans Hughes Jr.
Secretary of the Interior: Hugh A. Butler (replaced in the Senate by Dwight Griswold)
Secretary of Defense: Lucius D. CLay
Secretary of Commerce: Sinclair Weeks
Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare: James L. McConaughy
Secretary of the Treasury: Robert B. Anderson
Secretary of Labor: Harold Stassen
Ambassador to the UN: Alf Landon
Chief of Staff: Herbert Brownell

[FN1] This is a rough draft, and is completely open to change.

Dewey was to name J. Edgar Hoover Attorney General and then name him to the first open slot on the Supreme Court. Hoover was eventually going to become Chief Justice if he could (which thankfully won't happen since Dewey seems to be a one-term President).

 

[DanMcCollum]

Oh, it's possible. I'm not sure. If MacFarland isn't Leader, of course he wins. Sorry that wasn't clear.



Dewey was to name J. Edgar Hoover Attorney General and then name him to the first open slot on the Supreme Court. Hoover was eventually going to become Chief Justice if he could (which thankfully won't happen since Dewey seems to be a one-term President).

Do you have a source for this? I do believe you, but it hadn't shown up in any of my readings of Dewey. I've actually suspected that Dewey would try to work closely with Hoover (they both are investigators, after all.)
As you'll see in my next post, Hoover won't get the first Supreme Court seat, for reasons (Murphy's death opened up the 'Catholic seat', and I don't think Dewey would risk alienating the Catholic vote in that case.) But I may have to work Hoover in for a second seat, which would be ... interesting in the future.

 

[DanMcCollum]

Chapter 9
The White House
Washington D.C
August 3, 1949

Tom Dewey smiled warmly and got up to greet his visitor as Vice-President LaFollette walked into the room. “It’s good to see you Bob,” he said, “how was your vacation?”

LaFollette smiled, “Good, Mr. President. Bronson caught a trout while we were out finishing.” LaFollette knew that, with the door to the Oval Office closed, he could have gotten away with calling the President by his first name, but he also knew Dewey’s penchant for proper decorum, and never pushed the limits. [FN1]

“Good for him.” For a second a cloud passed over the Presidents’ face, “one of these days, I’d like to take the boys out fishing, again.”

LaFollette nodded, “One of the sacrifices we make in public life.” He signed, “I try to give more time to my family, but I don’t think it’s enough.”

The moment passed, and the President cleared his throat, signaling that it was time to turn to business. “So, I wanted your suggestions on Supreme Court justices to replace Justice Murphy.”

LaFollette signed, “It’s a shame, his passing, he was a good man.” Drawing himself up again, his voice became more formal, “But, I’ve given it a good deal of thought, as you requested. I’d just to suggest Judge Gerald Boileau.”

“The former Congressman?”

“Yah. We both know that Murphy’s seat is the Catholic seat, and nominating a Catholic Republican to the seat might help with the Catholic vote in the next election.”

Dewey could only nod, he, of all people, knew the importance of the ethnic vote in elections [FN2]

The Vice-President raised his hand, as if he were ticking off points, “Secondly, Boileau was a Republican before he joined my brother’s party. As a Progressive, he was the leader of the Liberal caucus in the House and tried to suggest alternatives to the New Deal. He was also an authority on farm issues, and I know that you want to strengthen the Republican Party with the Farm vote. Finally, since losing office back in ’38, he’s served as a Circuit Judge, and was recently appointed to the Wisconsin Supreme Court by Governor Immell.”

Dewey chuckled; he was never a man to laugh deeply, “You do realize that, if I take your advice, there are those who complain that my administration is going to be run by a bunch of Wisconsinites.”

LaFollette nodded, “Well, that’s another point. You know that my main focus, since being elected as your Vice-President, has been on the nation.”

“Of course.”

“When my term as Vice-President is done, I plan on retiring, although I hope for both of our sake’s that won’t be until ’56. I don’t want my old Senate seat back, I think Madsen is doing a fine job. But, the Coleman and the Stalwarts still control the party back in Wisconsin, and you know that they aren’t any real supporters of yours. They’d be just as happy to see Taft or MacArthur in your place.”
“Your brother, I thought, was the head of MacArthur’s campaign in Wisconsin.”

La Follette grew silent for a moment, as if trying to choose his words, “Phil served under MacArthur in the war and was loyal to him. But he’s a liberal at heart, as you know. If push came to shove, he’d support us. But, my point is, is that Coleman and his gang wouldn’t.”

“So, what you’re saying,” the President began, “is that nominating Boileau would send a message that we support Immell, and hurt the Coleman forces.”

“Exactly. And, one more point, Boileau won’t have any problem getting through the Senate. The New Deal Democrats will support him, as well the Progressive Republicans, and the moderates. We can move past the conservatives in the Democratic party, and our own.”

Dewey nodded, “You realize, before I even make a nomination, I’ll have Hoover thoroughly investigate him. I’m not going to nominate a crook to office.” [FN3]

LaFollette smiled, “Well, of course.” He let out a laugh, which was suddenly cut short as a look of pain crossed his face. His hand, instinctively, went to his left arm and moved to his chest.

“Are you all right, Bob,” he asked with noticeable alarm, “Bob?” As his Vice-President collapsed to the ground, the President grabbed his phone, “Get a doctor, La Follette’s having a heart attack,” he barked.

Adventures in Politics: the Memoirs of Philip LaFollette
By: Philip Fox LaFollette
[New York: Holt, Rinehart and Wilson, 1970]

Bob’s heart attack struck the family deeply, our father had been killed by a similar attack in 1946. Although the nation knew that the Vice-President had had an attack and was ill, Dewey made sure that the true seriousness of it did not get leaked to the press.
The heart attack finalized Bob’s plan to retire, once the Dewey administration had reached its natural conclusion. Although he would continue to advice the President, Bob was ordered by the doctor to curtail many of his activities. He told me that there was no chance of his returning to the Senate, that he had spent his entire life in public service, and looked forward to spending time with his family. Furthermore, he fully supported Charles Madsen, and felt that it was time to pass the leadership of the progressives in Wisconsin to a new generation. [FN3]

…

In many ways, I think that Bob’s heart attack sped up the process of Gerald Boileau’s nomination for the Supreme Court. Many in the Congress knew that Boileau was Bob’s nominee; Bob’s popularity was such, in the Senate, that many wished to show their support by honoring the request of Boileau’s nomination.

“Judge Gerald J. Boileau confirmed by Senate; to become newest judge on Supreme Court”
- Wisconsin State Journal September 1, 1949.

Associate Justice Gerald J. Boileau as a younger man.​

[FN1] Dewey was a stickler for formality. During his time investigating the rackets in New York City, he carefully chose the nickname “Chief,” out of fear that everyone in the office should soon be calling him “Tom” and destroying his authority.
Among his friends, Dewey was very different, and was able to relax. Due to the friendship forming between Dewey and LaFollette, the President would have no problem with him being called Tom, as long as they were in private. But LaFollette respects the President enough not to push the issue while they are still in the capitol. In private company, it’s another matter entirely.

[FN2] Dewey had a, near Democratic, obsession with ethnic voting patterns while governor of New York was legendary. I see no reason why this would change once he was President; I suspect that Dewey would harbor very real ambitions of making strong inroads into the Irish and other ethnic voting groups for the Republicans.

[FN3] In OTL according to Phil La Follette, Bob Jr., had suffered just such a heart attack in 1948, and it was one of the main reasons he chose to never return to politics. LaFollette’s biographer, Patrick J. Maney, has also suggested that a heart ailment may have played into Bob Jr.’s suicide. In the ATL the heart attack still happens, albeit later, and convinces LaFollette to retire once Dewey’s time in office is done.

[FN4] A rather short description of Associate Justice Boileau: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_J._Boileauv The very ambitious could also check out “Gerald J. Boileau: and the Progressive-Farmer-Labor Alliance and the New Deal” by James J. Lorence.

All right, a short update before I get into the foreign policy of the Dewey administration, and the subsequent Korean War. I hope you all enjoyed it.

 

[glenn67]

[FN4] A rather short description of Associate Justice Boileau: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_J._Boileauv The very ambitious could also check out “Gerald J. Boileau: and the Progressive-Farmer-Labor Alliance and the New Deal” by James J. Lorence.

Correction:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Boileau

 

[V-J]

Dewey was to name J. Edgar Hoover Attorney General and then name him to the first open slot on the Supreme Court. Hoover was eventually going to become Chief Justice if he could (which thankfully won't happen since Dewey seems to be a one-term President).

Even if this is true, I can't see Hoover giving up his position at the FBI and that of permanent eminence grise. If Hoover goes to the court (or even becomes Attorney General) his powerbase dies.

 

[Plumber]

Even if this is true, I can't see Hoover giving up his position at the FBI and that of permanent eminence grise. If Hoover goes to the court (or even becomes Attorney General) his powerbase dies.

I didn't think that either, but the facts are not on our side:

To help guarantee a Dewey victory [in 1948], J. Edgar Hoover was secretly supplying him with all the information the FBI could provide. Dewey and Hoover were old friends and got along well. Hoover had put the resources of the bureau at Dewey's disposal months before, in the expectation that when Dewey became President he would name Hoover as his Attorney General.

The plan was Hoover as AG, Tolson as assistant AG, Lou Nichols in charge of the FBI. Hoover would take the first vacancy on the Supreme Court, with the eventual goal of Chief Justice.

 

[Thande]

Glad to see this is still going. I like the Nixon-Kennedy thing. I wonder how "SPTO" would end up being pronounced: "Speeto" perhaps?

 

[V-J]

I didn't think that either, but the facts are not on our side:

Interesting. I wonder what Hoover's understanding of being named Attorney General entailed, though. You rather suspect he was not interested in become your run-of-the-mill AG. And of course an expectation on Hoover's part does not require that assistance to be requited by Dewey. (Unless you've clipped a bit of the quote, maybe the idea did appeal to Dewey)

I suppose this is the point at which we're reminded that J. Edgar was not actually a very astute politician.

 

[DanMcCollum]

Interesting. I wonder what Hoover's understanding of being named Attorney General entailed, though. You rather suspect he was not interested in become your run-of-the-mill AG. And of course an expectation on Hoover's part does not require that assistance to be requited by Dewey. (Unless you've clipped a bit of the quote, maybe the idea did appeal to Dewey)

I suppose this is the point at which we're reminded that J. Edgar was not actually a very astute politician.

I was rather surpised to see that Dewey and Hoover actually had an good relationship. I suspect that it might have been born from Dewey's own past as an investigator.
I wonder how that relationship would develop if they were working together on a continual basis. Dewey practically worshipped compitence, and I've always suspected that Hoover had a tendency to stray across that line on occasion. Furthermore, Hoover's denial that there was organized crime in America must have smacked of the absurd to Dewey who started his career going up against organized crime.
Although there might have been some such deal between Hoover and Dewey over a Supreme Court seat, I wonder if Dewey wouldn't hold up on his side of the bargain if his relationship with Hoover cooled.

 

[Unknown]

Gonna mention the Green Bay Packers, DanMcCollum?

Seriously, though, a good timeline.

 

[DanMcCollum]

Gonna mention the Green Bay Packers, DanMcCollum?

Seriously, though, a good timeline.

Oh, I suspect that the Green Bay Packers might be up for some Super Bowl victories in the future (once the NFL organizes.) Maybe I'll even have to throw in President Lombardi

 

[Unknown]

As for their upset, Dan, the Giants were the better team (getting hot at the right time (1) and they remind me of the 2007 Giants) and the Packers made one too many mistakes, IMO.

(1) Like a certain Wisconsin team last year.