The post-WWII peace settlement if the July 20th Plot succeeds?

CaliGuy

Banned
Had the July 20th Plot succeeded, what would the post-WWII peace settlement have looked like?

Also, I am aware that the Allies would have almost certainly insisted on unconditional surrender. However, a change of leadership in Germany might mean different military decisions on the battlefield in the last 9 months of the war and thus in a somewhat different situation on the ground after the end of World War II.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 
Had the July 20th Plot succeeded, what would the post-WWII peace settlement have looked like?

Also, I am aware that the Allies would have almost certainly insisted on unconditional surrender. However, a change of leadership in Germany might mean different military decisions on the battlefield in the last 9 months of the war and thus in a somewhat different situation on the ground after the end of World War II.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

I'd expect the germans to pretty much concentrate most of their forces east to prevent the russians getting inside germany so you can assume a RFA going up to the Oder from the get go and the west in a far better situation when the Cold war began overall.
 
It would be interesting to see what would happen if, after the WAllies reject a new German government's offer, the Germans move everything to the east and open up the Western Front. How does it look to the Soviets when the British and Americans are waltzing into the Rhineland while a suddenly stronger Wehrmacht is fighting tooth and nail in Poland? I don't think Stalin would be able to look past a seeming collusion.
 
It would be interesting to see what would happen if, after the WAllies reject a new German government's offer, the Germans move everything to the east and open up the Western Front. How does it look to the Soviets when the British and Americans are waltzing into the Rhineland while a suddenly stronger Wehrmacht is fighting tooth and nail in Poland?

Given that the demand was unconditional surrender to the WAllies and the Soviets I guess Stalin just got a much larger number of German prisoners.
 
I think there'd be a demand of unconditional surrender, including military occupation of Germany as a whole and/or annexation of territory by the WAllies. Plus, you gotta figure that the Soviets would insist on even harsher terms.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I'd expect the germans to pretty much concentrate most of their forces east to prevent the russians getting inside germany so you can assume a RFA going up to the Oder from the get go and the west in a far better situation when the Cold war began overall.

What does RFA stand for?

It would be interesting to see what would happen if, after the WAllies reject a new German government's offer, the Germans move everything to the east and open up the Western Front. How does it look to the Soviets when the British and Americans are waltzing into the Rhineland while a suddenly stronger Wehrmacht is fighting tooth and nail in Poland? I don't think Stalin would be able to look past a seeming collusion.

The Western Allies can give Stalin some of their captured territory if they want him to trust them more.

Maybe they get to keep 1936 borders? Very iffy they can hold onto Austria through.

East Prussia and Danzig are probably lost in any case, though.

Given that the demand was unconditional surrender to the WAllies and the Soviets I guess Stalin just got a much larger number of German prisoners.

Maybe, but he might also capture less territory due to the stiffer and greater German resistance in the East in this TL.

I think there'd be a demand of unconditional surrender, including military occupation of Germany as a whole and/or annexation of territory by the WAllies. Plus, you gotta figure that the Soviets would insist on even harsher terms.

That I agree with.

However, could countries such as Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and even Romania avoid falling under Soviet occupation in this TL?
 
Had the July 20th Plot succeeded, what would the post-WWII peace settlement have looked like?

Also, I am aware that the Allies would have almost certainly insisted on unconditional surrender. However, a change of leadership in Germany might mean different military decisions on the battlefield in the last 9 months of the war and thus in a somewhat different situation on the ground after the end of World War II.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

Unconditional surrender. There was less than zero chance of the allies going for anything but unconditional surrender after D-Day and Operation Bagration.

Ramifications: the July 20th plotters would never have done the Battle of the Bulge offensive; those troops would have gone east instead. Most likely they try and surrender as much of Europe to the allies as they possibly can. The butterflies are quite interesting. Czechoslovakia and Austria would probably be occupied by the West and East Germany would be much smaller (might even just be limited to their section of Berlin and East Prussia). The Warsaw Pact probably wouldn't be able to pose a serious threat of getting to the Rhine IATL.

If Greece could end up with the West IOTL, I wonder if Bulgaria could somehow find a way to surrender to us. That'd eliminate the threat to the Bosphorous.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Unconditional surrender. There was less than zero chance of the allies going for anything but unconditional surrender after D-Day and Operation Bagration.

Completely agreed.

Ramifications: the July 20th plotters would never have done the Battle of the Bulge offensive; those troops would have gone east instead. Most likely they try and surrender as much of Europe to the allies as they possibly can. The butterflies are quite interesting.

Agreed with all of this.

Czechoslovakia and Austria would probably be occupied by the West

What about Hungary and Romania?

and East Germany would be much smaller (might even just be limited to their section of Berlin and East Prussia).

Would the Soviets actually get any parts of Berlin in this TL?

Also, in regards to Poland, could the Germans decide to withdraw from Warsaw during the uprising there in 1944 and thus force the Soviets to commit some of their own troops to crushing this Polish rebellion?

The Warsaw Pact probably wouldn't be able to pose a serious threat of getting to the Rhine IATL.

OK.

If Greece could end up with the West IOTL, I wonder if Bulgaria could somehow find a way to surrender to us. That'd eliminate the threat to the Bosphorous.

Wouldn't Bulgaria's fate depend on Romania's fate? After all, if Romania falls, Bulgaria is pretty much exposed to the Soviet Union, no?

Also, would the Communists still come to power in Yugoslavia in this TL?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, there would be no Courland Pocket and no "no-retreat" orders in this TL after July 1944, correct? After all, wouldn't the German coup plotters want the front lines to be as straight, narrow, and secure as possible (as opposed to squandering German troops by stationing them in distant areas such as Courland)?
 
Also, there would be no Courland Pocket and no "no-retreat" orders in this TL after July 1944, correct? After all, wouldn't the German coup plotters want the front lines to be as straight, narrow, and secure as possible (as opposed to squandering German troops by stationing them in distant areas such as Courland)?
Pull back to the strongest naturally defensible position, dig in hard and hope the Anglo-Americans reach them before the Soviets manage to crack the line open by shear weight of numbers. It probably won't work but it's their only option. Although they'd be surrendering to them the Anglo Americans are the only relief force the Germans have coming.
 
What about Hungary and Romania?

Would the Soviets actually get any parts of Berlin in this TL?

Also, in regards to Poland, could the Germans decide to withdraw from Warsaw during the uprising there in 1944 and thus force the Soviets to commit some of their own troops to crushing this Polish rebellion?

OK.

Wouldn't Bulgaria's fate depend on Romania's fate? After all, if Romania falls, Bulgaria is pretty much exposed to the Soviet Union, no?

Also, would the Communists still come to power in Yugoslavia in this TL?

Bulgaria is to the south of Romania and borders Greece, so the allies could get there. Unfortunately, Hungary and Romania are too far for the allies to exert force.

Interesting idea. I think they probably would. The Home Army remaining a significant force is an interesting TL.

Probably. This doesn't change the fact that Tito is the most powerful guy there.
 
The final peace probably looks little different, aside from coming sooner. Contrary to popular belief, the Valkyrie plotters had no interest in being the Western Allies shield against communism unless Germany could be left independent and dominant in Central Europe. The chaos of coup and inevitable civil war with the large numbers of Nazi die hards and loyalists in the army and SS is liable to undermine the deployment of Germany's final reserves that, along with the logistical situation, allowed the Germans to temporarily stabilize the front and stop the Allies, both west and east, through the autumn.
 
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What if they offered to surrender with the only condition being to only have Western Troops occupying Germany? Would the Allies really reject that? I know the US administration contained a lot of useful idiots for the Soviets. But would France want to have it's country fought over, when the Germans are offering to abandon it without a fight just because Stalins cheerleader demand it? Would Churchill reject an offer that gives them everything they could possibly ask for and send tens of thousand of Brits of to die for what he knows is the new Russian Empire with a Red coat paint?
 

Loghain

Banned
What if they offered to surrender with the only condition being to only have Western Troops occupying Germany? Would the Allies really reject that? I know the US administration contained a lot of useful idiots for the Soviets. But would France want to have it's country fought over, when the Germans are offering to abandon it without a fight just because Stalins cheerleader demand it? Would Churchill reject an offer that gives them everything they could possibly ask for and send tens of thousand of Brits of to die for what he knows is the new Russian Empire with a Red coat paint?

You Know this might be propaganda coup worth Goebels. i doubt it would work but the effect on morale might be immense.
 
What if they offered to surrender with the only condition being to only have Western Troops occupying Germany? Would the Allies really reject that? I know the US administration contained a lot of useful idiots for the Soviets. But would France want to have it's country fought over, when the Germans are offering to abandon it without a fight just because Stalins cheerleader demand it? Would Churchill reject an offer that gives them everything they could possibly ask for and send tens of thousand of Brits of to die for what he knows is the new Russian Empire with a Red coat paint?

America had them by the purse strings so they had little say in the matter by 1944.

The WH was vastly more worried about the future British and French Empires then Uncle Joe where they pretty much bought their own propaganda about him. It happens rather often.

The real answer for the a successful July Plot comes down to Rommel's quote that what was needed was to turn it into an unopposed march in so where the Americans would have no choice in the matter in occupying Central Europe.

If the WH decides to force the army to sit on the beaches and pout that Stalin isn't going to take more of Europe while the British and French move forward into France and eventually Germany then watch FDR lose his last election by a fair margin and he would know it which is why he would be forced along.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Had the July 20th Plot succeeded, what would the post-WWII peace settlement have looked like?

Also, I am aware that the Allies would have almost certainly insisted on unconditional surrender. However, a change of leadership in Germany might mean different military decisions on the battlefield in the last 9 months of the war and thus in a somewhat different situation on the ground after the end of World War II.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
Unconditional surrender. A lot of the post-war rehabilitation of Germany depends on whether the coup plotters stop the Holocaust, arrest the perpetrators, and turn them over to the Allies. They will likely be thought of as traitors by a segment of the population/military, Gersdorff was shunned by most of the former army officers for his role in the July 20th plot, while there will be some Nazis that will probably try and assassinate them post-war if they can. I think a civil war is likely in the offing, as about 1/3rd of the population was pretty pro-Hitler even in 1944. The situation on the ground is likely to be worse given a successful coup due to a civil war situation and the plotters realizing that Unconditional Surrender is not on the table and they now will have to take the blame for the peace deal and will still be excluded from a post-war government. The post-war treatment of Germany by the Wallies is likely to be somewhat better as a result, while the 'clean Wehrmacht' myth will get a massive boost, especially because things don't go to the bitter end and the Holocaust ends roughly 10 months early at the hands of the conservative military types. The post-war settlement isn't likely to be much different from OTL, but likely the Germans make some less blunders while negotiating a peace deal, ultimately realizing it's futile and laying down their arms probably 6 months early. Interestingly the post-war Cold War might even happen earlier if the US/UK treat Germany more favorably as a result of not having to fight it to the bitter end and the Nazis getting purged and turned over by the Coup government and due to the Soviets being stronger and enacting their take over of half of Europe in peacetime. I do wonder if the ethnic cleansing of Germans post-war in many areas would be endorsed by the Wallies and if Poland would get nearly as much territory. Kaliningrad is likely to be happening all the same, along with the end of East Prussia, but that might be the limit, same with the role back of Sudetenland. Who knows what would happen with Austria.
 
What does RFA stand for?



The Western Allies can give Stalin some of their captured territory if they want him to trust them more.



East Prussia and Danzig are probably lost in any case, though.



Maybe, but he might also capture less territory due to the stiffer and greater German resistance in the East in this TL.



That I agree with.

However, could countries such as Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and even Romania avoid falling under Soviet occupation in this TL?
Czechoslovakia was occupied bu Aoviets only in 1968.
 
Unconditional surrender. A lot of the post-war rehabilitation of Germany depends on whether the coup plotters stop the Holocaust, arrest the perpetrators, and turn them over to the Allies.

Won't happen like that. Yes, they will stop the genocide, but most likely order the camps plowed under and the people dispersed.

They would understand video of it getting out would totally collapse German public morale and do vastly more damage to their poor international standing then say announcing vague bad things had gone on the camps, but we ended it and dealt with those involved. The camps leaders would be put up against the wall with everyone else sent to fight East.

In the meantime you will see the Marshals in West give the regime a few weeks to try to talk before they order a retreat from France or decide to pull a Lee at Appomattox. The later is much more likely if Rommel is back with his men in a week or two which is not unlikely.
 
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