The Post-World War II Peace Settlement if France Doesn't Fall and if Hitler is Kaput

How exactly would the post-World War II peace settlement look if France doesn't fall in 1940 or afterwards and if Hitler and the Nazis will successfully get overthrown by the Schwarze Kapelle in 1941?

To elaborate on this:

Maurice Gamelin decides that sending the French strategic reserve to the Low Countries in 1940 is a bad move and thus decided to keep it at Rheims as per the original plan. Thus, the German advance through the Ardennes is successfully halted, as in another German advance through Belgium. Afterwards, the front lines stabilize in the Ardennes and in northern Belgium (with Germany occupying eastern Belgium and all of the Netherlands). In the winter of 1940-1941, in an attempt to break this stalemate, Hitler orders another offensive. While this offensive initially makes some successes and results in the Germans capturing the rest of Belgium and parts of northern France, the Germans fail to get to Paris. Afterwards, Britain and France launch their first large-scale counteroffensive in World War II and successfully push the Germans out of northern France and out of western Belgium. This debacle convinces the Schwarze Kapelle that they should try overthrowing Hitler and the Nazis as soon as possible. Thus, the Schwarze Kapelle "gears into action" and successfully overthrows Hitler and the Nazis in either mid-1941 or late 1941 (with Hitler and all of the other big Nazis being either killed or imprisoned by the Schwarze Kapelle).

After its successful coup, the Schwarze Kapelle officially (and publicly) announces that the war will continue but simultaneously privately sends peace feelers to Britain and France. Basically, the Schwarze Kapelle will want to keep as much of its territorial gains as possible, a fact which it will make crystal-clear to Britain and France. Also, though, the Schwarze Kapelle will tell Britain and France that Germany is prepared to endure World War I-style casualties if it does not get a peace deal that it can live with. Thus, my question here is this--can the Schwarze Kapelle and the Anglo-French alliance come to a peace deal which both sides can live with? If so, then exactly how would such a peace deal look like? Also, how long is it going to take for them to reach such a peace deal (if at all)? (After all, please remember that there is no armistice in this scenario; rather, the war continue at the same time that Germany, Britain, and France secretly pursue peace negotiations.)

(Also, though, here is some additional information for you--Mussolini still invades Greece in late 1940 and gets bogged down in a stalemate there. Afterwards, in the winter of 1940-1941, Horthy and Stalin secretly agree to partition Romania between the two of them, with the Carpathian Mountains being the dividing line. Shortly afterwards, Hungary and the Soviet Union jointly invade Romania. However, Stalin doesn't stop there--rather, he also invades Bulgaria shortly afterwards. In addition to this, Stalin offers Horthy and Mussolini a secret deal to partition Yugoslavia and Greece (for Greece, excluding Hungary) between them. Due to him still being stuck in a stalemate in Greece, Mussolini reluctantly accepts Stalin's offer (as does Horthy). Thus, by late 1941, eastern Romania, Bulgaria, eastern Greece, Serbia, and eastern Bosnia are under Soviet control while Albania, western Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, western Bosnia, Croatia, and Slovenia are under Italian control and while Transylvania are the Hungarian-majority parts of Serbia (in Vojvodina) are under Hungarian control.

Thus, Britain and France are also going to need to somehow deal with the "aggressive trio" (Mussolini, Horthy, and Stalin) after they finish fighting Germany.)

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 
The allies are not going to let the Schwarze Kapelle keep the Low Countries, Denmark, Norway and Poland in any peace deal. They were not Nazis like Hitler and Himmler, but they were still fascists and they would not be accepted as the runners of the German government.
 
That I completely agree with! :) However, can you please elaborate on what exactly you think such a peace deal would look like? :)

Yeah, no peace...

I'm not all that familiar with the Schwarze Kappelle but i don't think they can actually keep running the country either after they give back all taken territory(and leave a huge strategic gap open for the USSR and other agressive countries to take advantage of) or continue their fight against France and Great Britian which they will loose WWI style.
 
Frankly, if the Schwarze Kapelle were smart, then they would ask Britain and France for plebiscites in all of the disputed areas. Then, Britain and France would be put in the uncomfortable position of arguing against the principle of national self-determination.

Heck, if the Schwarze Kapelle would actually do this, then maybe, just maybe, they are able to have Germany permanently keep areas such as Danzig, Eupen, and/or Malmedy.

Indeed, any thoughts on this?
 
Yeah, no peace...

I'm not all that familiar with the Schwarze Kappelle but i don't think they can actually keep running the country either after they give back all taken territory(and leave a huge strategic gap open for the USSR and other agressive countries to take advantage of) or continue their fight against France and Great Britian which they will loose WWI style.
The thing is, though, that the Schwarze Kapelle are certainly not going to withdraw from any territory until after they have already made peace with Britain and France.
 
The thing is, though, that the Schwarze Kapelle are certainly not going to withdraw from any territory until after they have already made peace with Britain and France.

hm, i wonder why nobody else has yet answered your questions. Strange. Probably too busy watching Star Wars

Well, like i said, no peace. If they ain't going to withdraw the allies ain't going to stop the fighting. Why should they with France kicking their ass and holding them off WWI style. The Wehrmacht is burned out from fighting in France, no way they can get the momentum back again. All they can do is go on the defence and once Japan attacks the US its just a question of who invades them first, the allies or comintern.
 
Frankly, if the Schwarze Kapelle were smart, then they would ask Britain and France for plebiscites in all of the disputed areas. Then, Britain and France would be put in the uncomfortable position of arguing against the principle of national self-determination.

Heck, if the Schwarze Kapelle would actually do this, then maybe, just maybe, they are able to have Germany permanently keep areas such as Danzig, Eupen, and/or Malmedy.

Indeed, any thoughts on this?

This is probably their best chance, they could even ask the USA to help mediate the peace deal to try to keep them from joining the UK/France against Germany. The new German government doesn't have to declare war on the US if Pearl Harbor happens.

Since the new government also isn't Nazis they could sign a formal alliance with the USSR if the UK/France isn't willing to negotiate. If Germany/USSR could negotiate Iran allowing Soviet troops to transit their territory they could invade into Iraq to drive the British out.
 
Germany needs to evacuate at least the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg France, Denmark, Norway and Poland. Without those there can be no peace. Since France hasn't fallen, Germany is not negotiating from a postion of strenght, so it probably has to give up Chechia, including the Sudetenland. Germany might be able to keep Danzig, Memelland and Austria, but only if it isn't beaten. If Germany actualy is beaten, it is going to lose Austria, Danzig the Polish speaking parts of East Prussia and Upper Silesia and maybe the Saarland, southern Schleswig and maybe East-Frisia or something like that. It probably is still a better result than it got after Hitler.
 
Not really. It would mean annexation of core parts of West Germany, that didn't happen OTL.
But they would keep a lot of what they lost in the east and they wouldn't be split in a West and east Germany. I would call that a better result.
 
Germany needs to evacuate at least the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg France, Denmark, Norway and Poland. Without those there can be no peace. Since France hasn't fallen, Germany is not negotiating from a postion of strenght, so it probably has to give up Chechia, including the Sudetenland. Germany might be able to keep Danzig, Memelland and Austria, but only if it isn't beaten. If Germany actualy is beaten, it is going to lose Austria, Danzig the Polish speaking parts of East Prussia and Upper Silesia and maybe the Saarland, southern Schleswig and maybe East-Frisia or something like that. It probably is still a better result than it got after Hitler.

That would presumably be a better result for Germany (depending on where it goes from there), however otl results have no effect on the thinking of the atl Germans.
Giving up Czechia is a given, however I think the might be able to keep the Sudetenland that was after all their last internationally recognized acquisition.
If the war is lost Germany more likely loses the Rhineland (more valuable), the Danes wouldn't want to have more Germans and I find it hard to imagine that the Netherlands would go and annex East-Frisia.
As to Upper-Silesia I don't know how many polish speakers (that actually felt polish) would still be left in 1940 additionally it is pretty clear that the polish speaking people in east-prussia felt overwhelmingly as Germans (as can be seen by the plebiscites after WWI and the fact that the NSDAP got some of their best results there). Then again if Germany loses self-determination is unlikely to be the guiding principle of the peace.
 
That would presumably be a better result for Germany (depending on where it goes from there), however otl results have no effect on the thinking of the atl Germans.
Giving up Czechia is a given, however I think the might be able to keep the Sudetenland that was after all their last internationally recognized acquisition.
If the war is lost Germany more likely loses the Rhineland (more valuable), the Danes wouldn't want to have more Germans and I find it hard to imagine that the Netherlands would go and annex East-Frisia.
As to Upper-Silesia I don't know how many polish speakers (that actually felt polish) would still be left in 1940 additionally it is pretty clear that the polish speaking people in east-prussia felt overwhelmingly as Germans (as can be seen by the plebiscites after WWI and the fact that the NSDAP got some of their best results there). Then again if Germany loses self-determination is unlikely to be the guiding principle of the peace.

You have to realise that I am talking about a situation in which Germany obviously lost the war, kind of like OTL WWI. Germany is going to lose some areas and it won't be because of plebiscides or because of the identity of the population who lives there, it will be decided by what the victorious countries want. And Poland would want the southern part of East-Prussia (actualy probably all of it) and upper Silesia. The Dutch want East Frisia or at least some part of Germany (if you don't believe me look up the megalomanic Bakker-Schut plan). You are probably correct the Danes wouldn't want more Germans and I suspect the Belgians would also be smart enough. France most certainly wouldn't be and would try to gain the Saarland and would indeed do something about the Rhineland (although not annex all of it though, they are that stupid). Since withouth the Sudetenland Czechia isn't viable, it will be returned, although I suspect no ethnic cleansing of Germans like OTL (although a lot will probably leave voluntary). In the end Germany will not lose as much as OTL and might even be able to keep Austria.
 
You have to realise that I am talking about a situation in which Germany obviously lost the war, kind of like OTL WWI. Germany is going to lose some areas and it won't be because of plebiscides or because of the identity of the population who lives there, it will be decided by what the victorious countries want. And Poland would want the southern part of East-Prussia (actualy probably all of it) and upper Silesia. The Dutch want East Frisia or at least some part of Germany (if you don't believe me look up the megalomanic Bakker-Schut plan). You are probably correct the Danes wouldn't want more Germans and I suspect the Belgians would also be smart enough. France most certainly wouldn't be and would try to gain the Saarland and would indeed do something about the Rhineland (although not annex all of it though, they are that stupid). Since withouth the Sudetenland Czechia isn't viable, it will be returned, although I suspect no ethnic cleansing of Germans like OTL (although a lot will probably leave voluntary). In the end Germany will not lose as much as OTL and might even be able to keep Austria.
Yes, I would probably agree with most of this. :)

However:

1. Why exactly would many Germans voluntarily leave the Sudetenland after the end of World War II in this TL?

2. Would France genuinely want the Saar(land) or simply want the coal of the Saar(land)? After all, just like after the end of World War I, France can acquire some of the coal of the Saar(land) without actually acquiring the people of the Saar(land). :)
 
Germany needs to evacuate at least the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg France, Denmark, Norway and Poland. Without those there can be no peace. Since France hasn't fallen, Germany is not negotiating from a postion of strenght, so it probably has to give up Chechia, including the Sudetenland. Germany might be able to keep Danzig, Memelland and Austria, but only if it isn't beaten. If Germany actualy is beaten, it is going to lose Austria, Danzig the Polish speaking parts of East Prussia and Upper Silesia and maybe the Saarland, southern Schleswig and maybe East-Frisia or something like that. It probably is still a better result than it got after Hitler.
I mostly agree with this. However, would France genuinely want the Saarland (including the people of the Saarland) as opposed to simply wanting the coal of the Saarland?
 
Top