The Portuguese keep Brazil

What if the Portugal keeps and successfully integrates Brazil into the empire? How would this impact the Portuguese Empires? How would they develop in the 1800s and 1900s centuries? How would this impact Africa and slavery? How powerful would they be? Would they industrialize and how?
 
I highly doubt that the Portuguese could keep such a large overseas territory forever. If you get rid of the Brazilian revolution after the Napoleonic wars (not an expert, so not sure how), I can see them keeping it until the interwar era. They could then end up making a commonwealth type thing where the two countries have close ties. The king staying in power makes this more likely.
 
I’m afraid the proper question shouldn’t be “what if Portugal kept Brazil”, but “what if Brazil kept Portugal”, as part of the personal union that went along from the 1770’s to the 1820’s. By the 18th century, it had already become clear that Brazil, not the tiny metropole, was the land of plenty and opportunity, it’s why Portuguese Brazil is used so often as an example when explaining the term “tail wagging the dog”.
 
I’m afraid the proper question shouldn’t be “what if Portugal kept Brazil”, but “what if Brazil kept Portugal”, as part of the personal union that went along from the 1770’s to the 1820’s. By the 18th century, it had already become clear that Brazil, not the tiny metropole, was the land of plenty and opportunity, it’s why Portuguese Brazil is used so often as an example when explaining the term “tail wagging the dog”.
Couldn’t a unified Portuguese identity help solve this to a extent? Both people in Brazil and Portugal share a common culture and language. Couldn’t Brazilians consider themselves Portuguese the same way people in Portugal did? Portugal still going to be important especially when industrialization takes off. Wouldn’t Brazil have more investment and trade from Europe? Portugal could also end up industrializing before Brazil and much earlier then otl to help balance the power and pull between the two. Think US north and south relationship before the civil war. Brazil exports mostly raw resources to Portugal where they are made into manufactured good. Portugal ends up being much more industrialized and urban which help keep a more even union. Portugal also tries to stay out of continental Europe conflicts like Britain with maybe the exception of Spain. Portugal just focuses on expanding overseas in Africa and Asia. In the Americas they don’t expand much with the exception of maybe Uruguay.
 
Couldn’t a unified Portuguese identity help solve this to a extent? Both people in Brazil and Portugal share a common culture and language. Couldn’t Brazilians consider themselves Portuguese the same way people in Portugal did? Portugal still going to be important especially when industrialization takes off. Wouldn’t Brazil have more investment and trade from Europe? Portugal could also end up industrializing before Brazil and much earlier then otl to help balance the power and pull between the two. Think US north and south relationship before the civil war. Brazil exports mostly raw resources to Portugal where they are made into manufactured good. Portugal ends up being much more industrialized and urban which help keep a more even union. Portugal also tries to stay out of continental Europe conflicts like Britain with maybe the exception of Spain. Portugal just focuses on expanding overseas in Africa and Asia. In the Americas they don’t expand much with the exception of maybe Uruguay.
Identity was never the problem - colonialism was. The moment Portuguese monopoly on the Brazilian trade ended was the moment Brazil would become independent, either with Portugal or without Portugal being ruled from Rio de Janeiro. The capital of the empire being at Lisbon always risks the re-establishment of neocolonial ties, and that is something the Brazilian economic elites would never tolerate. It is impossible for Portugal to keep Brazil throughout the 19th century, let alone in the 20th. The only scenario which could produce a union would be a Luso-Brazilian Empire being ruled from Rio de Janeiro and incorporating Brazil, Portugal and the African colonies.
 
Couldn’t a unified Portuguese identity help solve this to a extent? Both people in Brazil and Portugal share a common culture and language. Couldn’t Brazilians consider themselves Portuguese the same way people in Portugal did? Portugal still going to be important especially when industrialization takes off. Wouldn’t Brazil have more investment and trade from Europe? Portugal could also end up industrializing before Brazil and much earlier then otl to help balance the power and pull between the two. Think US north and south relationship before the civil war. Brazil exports mostly raw resources to Portugal where they are made into manufactured good. Portugal ends up being much more industrialized and urban which help keep a more even union. Portugal also tries to stay out of continental Europe conflicts like Britain with maybe the exception of Spain. Portugal just focuses on expanding overseas in Africa and Asia. In the Americas they don’t expand much with the exception of maybe Uruguay.

I think the problem is that eventually, the Portuguese wonder why they accept domination from Brazil. Portugal today has 10 million inhabitants and Brazil has over 200 million. If Portugal is much wealthier than Brazil, that makes things even worse - the Portuguese ask why they must subsidize this huge, poor territory. It's very hard to imagine the two remaining unified.
 
Identity was never the problem - colonialism was. The moment Portuguese monopoly on the Brazilian trade ended was the moment Brazil would become independent, either with Portugal or without Portugal being ruled from Rio de Janeiro. The capital of the empire being at Lisbon always risks the re-establishment of neocolonial ties, and that is something the Brazilian economic elites would never tolerate. It is impossible for Portugal to keep Brazil throughout the 19th century, let alone in the 20th. The only scenario which could produce a union would be a Luso-Brazilian Empire being ruled from Rio de Janeiro and incorporating Brazil, Portugal and the African colonies.
Brazil can be the dominant one in this pod and have the capital in Brazil as long as both Portugal and Brazil are united.
 
But why would Portugal accept that? No other European country is ruled from overseas.
Force of arms. If the Luso-Brazilian Crown can convice the British that it’s better for them to remain in Rio de Janeiro, I can see the European Congress rejecting an independent Portugal and Luso-Brazilian sovereignty being enforced militarily if necessary.
 
I think the problem is that eventually, the Portuguese wonder why they accept domination from Brazil. Portugal today has 10 million inhabitants and Brazil has over 200 million. If Portugal is much wealthier than Brazil, that makes things even worse - the Portuguese ask why they must subsidize this huge, poor territory. It's very hard to imagine the two remaining unified.

So breaking the wealth of Portugal would help?

Change the Napoleonic Wars such that instead of OTL’s nearly bloodless occupation of Portugal there’s a huge and bloody conflict instead, preferably involving the destruction of Lisbon.
 
So breaking the wealth of Portugal would help?

Change the Napoleonic Wars such that instead of OTL’s nearly bloodless occupation of Portugal there’s a huge and bloody conflict instead, preferably involving the destruction of Lisbon.
That, or have a "partial Napoleonic victory" scenario whereas Spain, or the majority of it, is successfully secured for Joseph Bonaparte, but Portugal remains unconquered due to the tested strength of the Lines of Torres Vedras. That way, Brazil-Portugal could remain an ally of Britain, as Portugal becomes merely a political-military foothold of Rio de Janeiro in Europe.
 
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I’ve always wondered if a surviving Portugal Brazil would attempt to heavily settle its African colonies.... I think it is a given this Brazil would try to join Angola and Mozambique in an alternate version of the pink map, maybe even further into the Congo and Namibia. but irl Portugal didn’t really care about settling these until the early to mid 20th century. At the same time there would be a lot of poor Brazilians most likely who would be attracted by a better life in Angola, just like many poor Portuguese went to Angola irl...

Considering Angola and Mozambique only had a few million people pre demographic transition I think it’s possible these could end up with a mixed race majority (that is, if the settlers are willing to marry locals, irl Portuguese weren’t willing, but I could see maybe Brazilians being more open to it?)
 
I've always said Portugal had the best chance to federate with it's colonies, albeit I typically am referring to it's African and Asian holdings.

It's hard, and would mean Portugal would more or less be submitting to Brazil, but given another 100 years, a united Lusosphere is possible.
 
Force of arms. If the Luso-Brazilian Crown can convice the British that it’s better for them to remain in Rio de Janeiro, I can see the European Congress rejecting an independent Portugal and Luso-Brazilian sovereignty being enforced militarily if necessary.

Well, that would be an interesting timeline!
 
It would definitely be an empire centered in and likely ruled from Brazil. The solution might be if their national identity is so language, culture and royal family focused that the influence of any given homeland is a distant fourth.
 
I've always said Portugal had the best chance to federate with it's colonies, albeit I typically am referring to it's African and Asian holdings.

It's hard, and would mean Portugal would more or less be submitting to Brazil, but given another 100 years, a united Lusosphere is possible.


I mean, an equal lusosphere would still be submitting to brazil, at least until the 21st century when Lusophone Africa/pink map/Mozambique-Angola has enough people and is developped enough to be a second economic center.
 
I don't really think it matters where the capital is. Rio de Janeiro was also a distant place for most Brazillians. The northermost regions of Brazil are actually closer to Lisbon than they are to Rio. Of course, elites like to close to the centre of power so that they can influence politics more, but it's not as if they will invariably start a revolution just because the capital isn't where they are. Otherwise the world would be ridiculously balkanized. There are also numerous examples of countries where the capital isn't even the economic and populational centre of the country.

All this talk of Brazil submitting to Portugal or Portugal submitting to Brazil only applies if Portugal and Brazil are seen as separate entities with clearly different interests. The very notion of Brazil as a unified polity completely separate from Portugal only really emerged at the time of indepence, as a result of a very significant conflict of interests between the Portuguese and Brazilian bourgeoisies (namely, the question of whether or not Brazilian ports should be open to non-portuguese traders). I think the key to keep the Empire together is just to have the Portuguese bourgeoisie accept the opening of Brazillian ports relatively early on. If you can do that, it shouldn't really matter where the capital is (just make sure that Portugal doesn't fall under the rule of an egotistical British mercenary if the court stays in Brazil).
 
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