The Portuguese Colonial Empire without Napoleon

So, let's say that Napoleon remains an obscure general. The French Directory is overthrown by someone else, and a fairly stable Republican France controls much of Germany and Italy by the end of the French Revolutionary Wars. Spain continues to dither between France and the Coalition, and when the French Revolutionary Wars come to an end, it's a neutral nation.

Now, how does this change Portugal and its colonial empire? There's no Peninsular War, no flight to Brazil, none of that. Portugal is merely a minor member of the Coalitions that fought against France and failed, and isn't really severely impacted by the French victory. In this scenario, what is the fate of Brazil? Does it remain a colony for a lengthened period of time?
 
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Lusitania

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So, let's say that Napoleon remains an obscure general. The French Directory is overthrown by someone else, and a fairly stable Republican France controls much of Germany and Italy by the end of the French Revolutionary Wars. Spain continues to dither between France and the Coalition, and when the French Revolutionary Wars come to an end, it's a neutral nation

Now, how does this change Portugal and its colonial empire? There's no Peninsular War, no flight to Brazil, none of that. Portugal is merely a minor member of the Coalitions that fought against France and failed, and isn't really severely impacted by the French victory. In this scenario, what is the fate of Brazil? Does it remain a colony for a lengthened period of time?

It will be hard to say for sure how long Brazil would remain under Portuguese control. Prior to the napoleonic wars there were already elements of the population that advocated for independence taking their inspiration from the US.

The major difference might be that Brazil would fracture into several states in the struggle. Prior to the Portuguese court transferring from Lisbon to Rio the provinces were for most part independent and had no history of unified central government in Brazil. IOTL during war of independence parts of Brazil such as Maranhão wanted to stay with Portugal so if parts of Brazil do revolt there is a good chance Portugal could put the revolts down one at time. If any province does become independent it would be republican as there would not be any royal or aristocrats in Brazil.

Eventually things will breakdown as the population of Brazil continues to surpass Portugal.

My question though is what is the outcome on the Iberian peninsula from your scenario. The Spanish empire had its own independence movements, how a Spain that had not witnessed the brutal French occupation be able to send the troops to the new world to put down those revolts?

Also in your post you stated Republic France does exist. Without fighting in the Iberian peninsula would both Portugal and Spain be rocked by revolts? If so how would the revolts hamper the two governments ability to deal with colonial issues.
 
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My question though is what is the outcome on the Iberian peninsula from your scenario. The Spanish empire had its own independence movements, how a Spain that had not witnessed the brutal French occupation be able to send the troops to the new world to put down those revolts?

My thoughts are that without Bonapartist Spain, many of the conservatives that played roles in the independence movements would support Spain, so those revolts would be less conservative and more republican, and they'd be smaller and happen later, with less British support. So, these revolts would be much easier for Spain to crush, but not permanently. Eventually, by the 1840s and 50s, much of the Spanish colonial empire falls independent, under governments more revolutionary than OTL.

Also in your post you stated Republic France does exist. Without fighting in the Iberian peninsula would both Portugal and Spain be rocked by revolts? If so how would the revolts hamper the two governments ability to deal with colonial issues.

Portugal proper? Well, I guess it would have some French-funded revolutionary activity, but not a whole lot of it.

Spain would have more revolts, owing to its constant dithering, but by the time the French Revolutionary War comes around, these revolts come to an end, with Spain attempting to isolate itself from aligning to either side. It would have plenty of Francophiles and Francophobes in court, but I don't expect much else post-Revolution.

But I'm not well-informed on this subject, so I could be way off.
 
No peninsular war means the whole revolutionary movement in South America is pushed back by decades, if not more. the Pen War caused one major spark (and often added gunpowder to the keg) for a huge explosion. There will still be revolutionary pressures, but they'll more dampened, and easier to put down. Sooner or later, though, one will succeed, or they'll get numerous enough that the mother countries (Portugal and Spain) will be forced to come to terms with loosening the iron grip of control.
 
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