The Popular Vote: Early changes to US electoral system

All,

Not sure if this is too recent history or not, but here goes:

The electoral system might be considered as antiquated and has surely put the spotlight on 'democracy' in a US context.

Let us look at the 1960 election where the (first?) major discussion came up - Nixon vs JFK.

Due to Alabama's way of conducting elections it has been claimed that Nixon won the popular vote overall.

Let us now assume that changes are made before the 1964 election and a lot of the 'fluff' is chucked out. Let us assume it looks like this:

- Election day is 12 December (or 15 November)
-Inauguration is 2 January (or 1 December)

The responsibility of conducting elections could then be a federal responsibility via a federal agency (like what we see in Europe - an Independent Electoral Commission).

The questions to look at would then be:
- how will campaigning differ?
- will a central party organisation be necessary
- will it start a process of a Europe-style democracy (conservative, labour, liberals etc)

and the big WI:

Gore as president?
Hillary?

Trusting it is not too recent
 
If you want the USA with a popular vote system, I think Birch Bayh and Emmanuel Cellar are your best bet. In 1969 their amendment to elect the POTUS by popular vote passed the House 339 to 70, but was filibustered in the Senate both that year and in 1970. You'd need to get support in the Senate up to the 2/3 necessary to submit to the states for ratification, which would also make the filibuster fail. Most though by no means all of the opposition came from segregationists. Maybe you can curtail their power with the anti-lynching laws making black people less likely to be intimidated into not voting, although this is towards the end of the civil rights movement. Maybe the segregationists become convinced Nixon would have won the popular vote (though in OTL they opposed the amendment because they feared it would erode their power). You could give the Republicans less power if there's no Vietnam War to cause a rift within the Democratic Party or create backlash against anti-war protests, but of course averting the Vietnam War would have a lot of other butterflies.

Assuming you got the Cellar-Bayh amendment passed with minimal butterflies, Gore would win in 2000. I'm not going to touch the issue of Hillary because that's definitely current politics.

I don't know what you mean by Europe-style democracy. If you mean a parliamentary system, no; the separation of powers system would stay in place. If you mean multiple parties, that might come later on, but its not an immediate consequence, and it would require something like ranked choice voting or some other form of runoff. It would probably be a while later if it happened, possibly as a result of a Ross Perot (or ATL equivalent) candidacy. I don't see the USA adopting proportional representation at the federal level. You might be able to get one or two states to elect their legislatures proportionally, but it's unlikely and even if it happened the other states would probably not adopt it.
 
Thanks, Learning all the time.

Two things in this:
Would it have changed the voter behavior at a national level? Could it have been perceived as a more democratic way of doing things?
If that would be so, could we have seen a grassroot push?

The other one is the emergence of European-style multiple parties. It is interesting to see you mention Perrot.
Could Perrot after all have been a catalyst for a breakup up the traditional two-party system?

More interesting: Could Perrot have gained more votes if it would be a non-college vote?
 
What is needed is a proper, proportional representational electoral system. Get rid of the simplistic first-past-the-post counting and introduce proper proportional voting. This would get rid of the tradition two party system and introduce multiple parties.

America's voting system has two fundamental problems that tend to polarise its politics. The two major parties and the politicians elected tend to be further to the left and right than they otherwise would be. This also tends to polarise the population, who become driven by fear of one extreme or the other, or both. And no, this has nothing to do with the electoral college, which is a technical curiosity by comparison.

Both problems have obvious solutions that Australia already employs, which is why our politics is so boring and centrist in comparison. America is starting to employ one of them in places.

1) Optional voting

A consequence of optional voting is that politicians devote more energy to preaching to the choir, as there are far more votes to be gained by becoming motivational speakers, encouraging your supporters to actually turn up on election day, rather than chasing the middle ground of centrists. There policies also become geared to appealing to the more extreme left or right, rather than the centre.

From a perspective of pure self interest, voting is irrational. It takes some effort on the part of the individual to vote, and the lines in America don't make it any easier. Yet the likely payoff is zero.

Hence optional voting means voting by highly motivated idiots, and the politicians and their policies inevitably reflect this.

2) First past the post voting

First past the post voting tends to limit the number of political parties to two. It creates a perverse incentive for additional candidates to withdraw from the race, and for voters to not vote for minor party candidates, even if they prefer them. The two major parties come to represent varying combinations of more extremist influences from their side of the political divide.

Runoff systems, such as are used in Australia and France, get around this problem. As a result, Australia still has two major parties, but they are very centrist. The more extreme movements come to be represented by smaller, third parties, which are larger and more numerous than in America, better reflecting the diversity of voters views. This creates greater transparency. Everyone knows how popular a particular movement is by how many votes go to whatever minor party adopts them, rather than having the movement attach itself to one of the two major parties and trying to influence it from within in a far more opaque manner. The major parties can choose to adopt any policies from the minor parties if they are popular enough, but they still have to win over the silent, centrist majority in order to gain power.

America is starting to use the Australian alternative of instant runoff voting (preferential voting) in some elections. The American courts have already ruled it to be constitutional, so the only barrier is popular support. That is, ignorance. For some reason, Americans and everyone else tend to focus on the electoral college when it comes to electoral reform. This is a very visible problem, but merely technical, and fixing it would not achieve qualitative change. The two presidential candidates are still chosen by two enormous political institutions that are products of the current voting system and its flaws. These flaws affect congress, the senate, the presidency, and the two major parties.

Consequences

When considering the consequences of a naturally polarising voting system, people rarely look beyond who wins the election. However, what really matters is government and legislation. Focusing on who wins the election implies that the goal of democracy is fairness to politicians, rather than the public getting a real outcome that is supported by the majority.

Australians often get hung up on coalitions and minority governments, and whether a party 'deserves' to rule or not, and whether they deserve to rule on their own or be forced to negotiate with coalition partners. What they should focus on is whether the legislation enacted by this torturous process has the support of the majority of the population.

More polarised politics means bigger changes to legislation every time government changes hands. This is costly, both in terms of immediate cost as well as the consequences of political instability causing people to refrain from investing time or money in a venture or cause that might be affected by future changes. Some significant policies literally change immediately every time the presidency changes hands, for example whether foreign aid is allowed to be used for family planning. More fundamentally, legislation ceases to reflect the will of the majority.
 
Fair comments. Maybe the electoral college is not the real problem after all.

One of things we also need to look at is the fixation on a person. It seems to me (as non-US) that the vote is not for a party with a programme of things, but more focused on a person. After election, the incoming can then start developing his/hers personal objectives - rather than the party programme.

The US civil war seems to have a far more significant place in forming the US system. More than any wars in a European setting.

Comments on that? Does the US still fight the civil war?
 
Thanks, Learning all the time.

Two things in this:
Would it have changed the voter behavior at a national level? Could it have been perceived as a more democratic way of doing things?
If that would be so, could we have seen a grassroot push?

The other one is the emergence of European-style multiple parties. It is interesting to see you mention Perrot.
Could Perrot after all have been a catalyst for a breakup up the traditional two-party system?
It would be more likely in a popular vote system. He drew votes from both major parties, so even if didn't win, the losing major party would blame him for splitting the vote

More interesting: Could Perrot have gained more votes if it would be a non-college vote?
Possibly. People might be more inclined to vote for him if they didn't feel like they were splitting the vote in a winner-take-all system.
 
There are two issues here, IMO. One is the Electoral College itself, & the other is the "first past the post" system. Getting rid of the EC doesn't deal with the issues of winning/losing districts without a genuinely representative vote, & that's probably another thread. (There's also Gerrymandering, which is another thread, too.)

No EC changes campaigning immensely. It's no longer possible to focus on the "swing states": you've got to win them all. (You might reasonably ignore Alaska & Hawaii, still, not least because voting there's going to be so depressed by national TV coverage making voters there feel their votes don't count.)

Does that mean campaigns do even more TV advertising? More sound bite ads & "five-word answers"? :eek: Less attention to actual solutions & more to slogans? (Like it's not insanely bad now.:rolleyes: ) Does it mean campaigns need even more money?:eek::eek: The poisonous effect of something like Citizens United in 1972, instead?:eek: (I pick 1972 advisedly; that's when SCotUS decided money equalled speech,:eek::rolleyes: clearly demonstrating they're out of touch with reality.:rolleyes: )

Getting rid of the Electoral College looks like a good idea, & after a novel about faithless electors selecting PotUS (by Jeff Greenfield?), it makes for an interesting WI, but you may end up with something worse.:eek:
 
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