The political party in the USA after a Southern Victory

Which political party could’ve become dominant in the USA

  • Republican Party

    Votes: 9 28.1%
  • Democrat Party

    Votes: 11 34.4%
  • Socialists

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Independent Politicians

    Votes: 1 3.1%
  • Greenback Party

    Votes: 2 6.3%
  • A dictatorship

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ressurected Party (Whigs, Know nothings)

    Votes: 3 9.4%

  • Total voters
    32
With a starting time around after 1860s to the 20th century.

If the South manage to get foreign backing, and won the Civil war, what political party has the chance to become dominant in USA?
 
The Republicans would be seen as the dumbasses who lost the war. The Democrats would be seen as sensible types who don't put up with all this left wing abolitionist racial equality crap that got the country divided in the first place. They would be seen as the conservative party of the establishment and be dominant in the late 1800s and into the early part of the 20th until something happened to upset the status quo (otl great depression).

The opposition would be either the Republicans or a new party 50/50 chance of either.
 
The New Whigs, with their mania for internal improvements resurrected as a series of massive public works programs designed to stimulate the economy/secretly build up fortifications for the inevitable Civil War 2-Trench Warfare Boogaloo. Meanwhile, contrary to Bring the Jubilee, I think it would make more sense for the Republicans to blame the whole mess on decades of Democratic blunders coming home to roost (or even denouncing them as some sort of fifth column), and try to move forward with civil rights laws as a way to shame the Confederacy/stimulate slave rebellion.
 
The New Whigs, with their mania for internal improvements resurrected as a series of massive public works programs designed to stimulate the economy/secretly build up fortifications for the inevitable Civil War 2-Trench Warfare Boogaloo. Meanwhile, contrary to Bring the Jubilee, I think it would make more sense for the Republicans to blame the whole mess on decades of Democratic blunders coming home to roost (or even denouncing them as some sort of fifth column), and try to move forward with civil rights laws as a way to shame the Confederacy/stimulate slave rebellion.

Might not be a good idea. They can try, but if it works, they have a failed (s-hole) country on the southern border, and they have a lot of black and even some poor white refugees trying to immigrate to the US. The former were unwanted in the Midwest and the latter will be viewed as causing downward pressure on wages.

It's an OK political strategy in the short term but bad policy and bad politics in the long run.
 
Might not be a good idea. They can try, but if it works, they have a failed (s-hole) country on the southern border, and they have a lot of black and even some poor white refugees trying to immigrate to the US. The former were unwanted in the Midwest and the latter will be viewed as causing downward pressure on wages.

It's an OK political strategy in the short term but bad policy and bad politics in the long run.
Okay, say the Radical Republicans spin off into a super abolitionist John Brown esque lunatic fringe but the mainstream Republicans settle for just making the CSA look bad?
 
The Democrats likely initially would be the dominant party due to the disgrace of defeat.

But the politics would get revanchist pretty quickly in the US and the Democrats would be overtaken likely by the Republicans with an entirely new leadership class made up of "bright spot" Union Military leaders (say, Grant and Logan) and nationalistic radicals who tone down the focus on abolition (but not the slave power theory) but tone up the focus on treason, like Greeley and Stanton.

I also wouldn't be shocked if the Republican Party fails to survive the defeat with its current label but morphs into being the Union Party and drops some elements like the protective tariff as a major point of contention and becomes sort of a nationalist populist party with a focus on the farmers and laborers.
 
The Democrats likely initially would be the dominant party due to the disgrace of defeat.

But the politics would get revanchist pretty quickly in the US and the Democrats would be overtaken likely by the Republicans with an entirely new leadership class made up of "bright spot" Union Military leaders (say, Grant and Logan) and nationalistic radicals who tone down the focus on abolition (but not the slave power theory) but tone up the focus on treason, like Greeley and Stanton.

I also wouldn't be shocked if the Republican Party fails to survive the defeat with its current label but morphs into being the Union Party and drops some elements like the protective tariff as a major point of contention and becomes sort of a nationalist populist party with a focus on the farmers and laborers.
I mean Lincoln did run on the National Union ticket IRL. Does he survive the war as a disgrace or die early, paving the way for McClellan and Confederate victory.
 
I mean Lincoln did run on the National Union ticket IRL. Does he survive the war as a disgrace or die early, paving the way for McClellan and Confederate victory.

Personally, I and liked had the idea of Lincoln getting assassinated in 1864, but there could be two PODs for this, and allow people to decided
 
So, by definition, a Democrat would have won in 1864. If said Democrat runs in 1868 and wins the Dems are on pretty solid ground for another running in 1872, and IMO, the Republicans would splinter in 1868 along Radical and Moderate lines, leading to a three way race which probably propels another Democrat to power in 1868. There's a few options after that, firstly the Republicans could set aside their differences to come together in 1872, while conversely they could go on separate courses but one faction could come to power. Second option is the Republicans unify, but a third party coalesces around issues both the Democrats and Republicans have a hard time addressing (like OTL's Populist Party) which might emerge sometime in the 1870s-1880s.

I honestly think its a seesaw between Dems and Reps till the 1880s when a new faction like the Populists comes into play, I voted socialists because some kind of organized labor movement emerging in the 1880s seems logical to me. Whether this would be an outgrowth of an unlikely alliance between rural and urban workers or a purely urban power is up to the reader.
 
It depends why the US lost the war, how the American public reacts to the outcome of the war, and kind of blame arises for it.

How badly does losing the civil war cripple the credibility of the nation's institutions, and how fundamentally altered are its emerging national identity and myths about itself? Do the American people want peace or war with the CSA? With Britain, if it had something to do with secession? Are people more willing to challenge the basic assumptions of the political order? Does the American worker still think he's a temporarily embarrassed millionaire, or is he much more open to radical solutions? Does the labor militancy of the Gilded Age win mass public support? Does populism rise earlier and continue to spread, rather than being contained within the Democrats and fizzling out? Is there a continuing militarization of American society? Does this lead to the military becoming political actors in their own right? Is there an opening for an American Boulanger, an officer like Smedley Butler who could have united the left and right in a reform regime?
 
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