The Political Development of France Without a Direct WWII?
- Thread starter Van555
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Deleted member 1487
disclaimer: I'm not an expert on the politics of France
I think if the Great Depression is resolved the government would continue with tweeks indefinitely. If not then there are going to be issues, but so long as a rearming Germany is a threat the 3rd Republic probably won't collapse due to fear of their neighbor preventing major reform.
I think if the Great Depression is resolved the government would continue with tweeks indefinitely. If not then there are going to be issues, but so long as a rearming Germany is a threat the 3rd Republic probably won't collapse due to fear of their neighbor preventing major reform.
French Third Republic was established in 1871 and last until 1940 so 69 years, and it took a cataclysmic defeat and the establishment of a dictature to bring the regime down. So it could live forever.
In the late thirties, you have severals people who have plans to reform the regime and they put these plans into action in 1945. So without a war, these plans could be put into action a little earlier or a little after than OTL. It will stay a parliamentary regime as is 3/4 of Europe today.
I figured as much, Du Gaulle and the Fifth Republic require France to fall.
Without a need for the french resistance would SFIO be able to triumph over French Communists who have less credibility?
I suppose it depends on why there's no WW2. The existence of Nazi Germany pretty much guarantees an alt-WW2 of some kind, and a lack of Nazi Germany will affect the path of France throughout the 1930s.
Should we presume the usual plausible no-Nazis scenario—conservative nationalist monarchists à la Schleicher, Papen and Hindenburg take power as an authoritarian but non-insane dictatorship? Or are we going for the (rather harder to achieve) Weimar-survives route? Or do you mean for there to be a Nazi Germany that later gets overthrown by a military coup d'état? (I discount KPD Germany, which is just not going to happen, full stop.) These things will affect France; for instance, Action Française will be affected if their ideological brethren (monarchist, anti-Semitic, conservative, traditional, strongly religious, anti-democratic) take power in Germany, though not necessarily strengthened (I daresay that the French wouldn't want to go along a route that can be painted as too German).
Should we presume the usual plausible no-Nazis scenario—conservative nationalist monarchists à la Schleicher, Papen and Hindenburg take power as an authoritarian but non-insane dictatorship? Or are we going for the (rather harder to achieve) Weimar-survives route? Or do you mean for there to be a Nazi Germany that later gets overthrown by a military coup d'état? (I discount KPD Germany, which is just not going to happen, full stop.) These things will affect France; for instance, Action Française will be affected if their ideological brethren (monarchist, anti-Semitic, conservative, traditional, strongly religious, anti-democratic) take power in Germany, though not necessarily strengthened (I daresay that the French wouldn't want to go along a route that can be painted as too German).
The scenario I'm working with has a coup of Hitler and the Nazis in 1939 which degenerates into a short civil war from around 1939-1940. The Soviets take over some of the baltic states in the chaos but Poland survives. So politically its like all the OTL road to war happened but their was an anti climax in the 1939-period after the Alt Munich. The new mostly democratic Germany, Is really only lightly damaged still has Austria and parts of the Sudetenland so by 1949 there they are going to the pivot on which Europe turns again much earlier then they were in OTL.
In conclusion France isn't invaded but Germany will still be much stronger than it. So all in all a mixed bag.
By whom? I'd like to have a link to the scenario, please, if there is one.
OK.
!!!!!!
…how did that happen? Democratic forces were cut to the bone in Germany; the people left were mostly Nazis and a small and ever-weakened number of traditional authoritarian nationalists, largely in the army. How do you manage to get that into an even remotely democratic Germany?
Maybe it is plausible, but I'm obviously missing something, since I can't think of anyone who (a) stood a shadow of a chance of taking over Germany by more than a year after Hitler's takeover and (b) was democratic in any way, shape or form. May I ask how early your PoD is, and what it is?
In these 'nazis overthrown' scenarios I wonder what happens with the German Jews, and other groups, who were deprived of their property, civil rights, health, and in more than few cases their life. My first guess is this post nazi Germany is still very conservative & sweeps the proto holocost under the rug. Whatever happens there are some profound political effect for the long term.