The Platine War: Possible Victory for Rosas?

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
How plausible, if possible would it be for Rosas and Oribe to win the war against the Unitarians, Colorados and Brazilians that opposed them? Rosas intended on re creating the old Viceroyalty of Rio de La Plata as a republican federation (although reclaiming all the old territories has in the past been considered ASB due to the geographical issues and logistical problems that the armies would face during the period.) But as a start, would it lead to Uruguay being brought directly into Argentina later on?
 
Rosas seems like the Santa Anna of Argentina to me from what I've read of him, but *maybe* if San Martin decides to align or endorse Rosas he can more effectively unite the country. Rosas also needs to give some powers to the outlying governors to engender loyalty to the central regime, defections were a serious problem before Caseros itself on both sides but especially for Rosas. I think the man's ambitions were not simply the old Viceroyalty, he seems to have had his eyes on unifying modern Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Chile, southernmost Brazil/Rio Grande do Sul/Parini Republic, and possibly Peru as well. But even if he won at Caseros the bulk of the Brazilian forces are not at the battle, and simply winning one battle will not change the course of the conflict.

Granted, if it could be done and a counterweight for Brazil established in South America it might lead to greater prosperity for the entire region, or just a set of really ugly civil wars later on.
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
Well, I don't know how possible that would be, since San Martin did not want to involve himself in the complex Argentine Civil Wars of the era.

As for a potential victory, if possible, how would it lead to further Civil War, unless the Unitarian Party in Argentina is not wholly defeated or is supported as a pro-Brazilian party in exile in Brazil.
 
I think that the Brazilians still have the forces available to challenge Rosas even if one battle is lost, also unless the defeat is extremely crushing there is native Argentinean resistance to Rosas that might also challenge him if allowed to gather their forces. San Martin tried to stay out of the wars, but he did will his sword to Rosas if memory serves, so I think if he sided with anyone it might be him. That would give Rosas points in the eyes of many. Not trying to be a total dictator would also help but then he wouldn't be quite the Rosas of OTL at that point.
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
Perhaps so, but what if he would be replaced or killed down the road, or at least after he wins the war with his adversaries, one who shares his policies but is less of a dictator than Rosas was?
 
Some ideas:

- Rosas was, according to some historians, preparing to go to war agianst Brazil. In 1850, he controled all the country and an ally of him ruled over all of Uruguay except Montevideo (which had been under siege for 7 years). But Urquiza, governor of Entre Ríos, deserted him, and, toghether with Brazil, invaded Uruguay. Then, Brazil, Uruguay, Entre Ríos and the Argentine exiles living in Montevideo attacked Rosas, beating him in Caseros. Paraguay was neutral.

- Had Urquiza not betray him (in his eyes) he might have pose a serious challenge to Brazil. The most he could have hoped, however, is to have Brazil recognize Argentine soveraignty over Uruguay. I don't know enough about Brasil in 1850-51 to know if he could have achieved so.

- If Urquiza deserts him and everything goes as in OTL till the battle of Caseros (February 1852), Rosas might have still win. The battle was a close thing. But the victory would only mean Rosas stays in power a bit longer. It all depends, however, on what Brazil does. Would they raise and send another army? Even if their Argentine and Uruguayan allies abandon the fight? A victory in Caseros might mean either that Rosas falls just a few months later, or (if Brazil gives up) that he stays in power indefinetedly (or untill he pisses of somebody bigger than him willing to fight him until he's oult of power (something that nor Great Britain nor France, who also had problems with him in the past, weren't willing)

- San Martín died in 1850, and was in France, and to old to play a decissive roll. He could have intervened in the civil wars in the late 1820ies, but he didn't. Who would he have supported had he intervened (federalist or unitarians) is an issue that is the matter of heated discussions among local history fans.
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
Well, Brazil did not want a Argentine conquest of Uruguay or Paraguay, because it would threaten their hegemony along its southern borders, not to mention affect communications between Rio de Janeiro and he Mato Grosso province, since the Platine River would pass through a hostile Paraguay between them. I doubt the Brazilians would accept Argentine sovereignty over those regions without a serious fight.
 
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