The Plague Years

[Tynnin]

What would be the lasting affects of a much more virulent “Black Death”? Instead of a third of the European population killed how about two thirds throughout the 1350’s.

Would this put off the hundred years war or simply postpone it?

Would the Ottoman Empire try to branch further into Europe?

Would the Mongols be able to raid/settle deeper into the Germanic lands?

With a longer lasting plague could we see a disruption in the lines of succession of the various kingdoms – earlier death of Edward the III, Pope Gregory XI drops dead during mass, etc.?

Anything else anyone wishes to add?

 

[carlton_bach]

Well, the fifgure of 1/3 is very conjectural to start with, but...

anything that kills two in three people will have a hugely disruptive effect. Expect more villages and maybe even small cities to 'fail'. Also, there would be a greater 'knock-on' effect as lands go untenbded and transport becomes less available. This could actually kill off trade for a few years.

The Mongols are in decline at this point, and at any rate they are in as deep doo-doo as the rest of the world, so no big changes there, I think.

As regards the war - war is about the only thing that tends not to be affected by other calamities. I don't know why, but I suspect unless France falls to pieces, the Hundred Years' War will hae a hiccup, then continue, as it did OTL.

Human societies are remarkably resilient things. Tribes in the Americas went through two or three pandemics killing off between 50% and 90% of their population and still continued as cultural entities. But this one will leave scars.

 

[NapoleonXIV]

There is some question of how much more virulent it could be. The problem is that if it kills off many more people it will start cutting into its ability to spread itself. The dead cannot spread anything very far.

The labor shortage, already bad after the plague, will be horrendous. I see Wat Tyler's revolution as succeeding, at least partially; because some labor starved nobles and business owners will support the peasants just to get some work done.

If nearly everyone dies there will be a reaction against religion. It will be hard for the flagellants to say that everyone died for sin when they die themselves. There is also the 'mandate of heaven' thing and the idea that religion has failed society. The priest can say 'its your fault for not doing what I said' only up to a point, then people begin to wonder if what was being said is right.

Not just villages will seem abandoned but whole cities and countrysides. Some ethnic groups may die out completely

And the Jews will be blamed even more. A Crusade may be called against them in one or more areas. I believe they will mainly flee to the East. Allying with the welcoming muslims they bring an early Renaissance to the Middle East.

In 1400, Islamic armies led by Jewish generals and equipped with cannon and wheelocks, reconquer Spain and Portugal. Spanish, Jewish merchants, seeking a way around their rivals in Palestine finance one of the many seacaptains who has noticed the Canary current and thinks Asia is right over the horizon.

Events move along. By 1600 the most powerful country in the World is Islamic Spain. Cadiz, Lisbon, many other cities are the premire metropolitan areas of the world, while Europe becomes 'the dreaming continent."

By 2000 a new wind of change is blowing across the world. Islam, worlld leader, technically advanced and the standard of modernity, finds itself menaced by violent Christian fundamentalists

 

[Tynnin]

The ability for disease to migrate between populations isn’t usually diminished until you reach the 90th percentile – and then of course you have to take into consideration the gestation period. I don’t think a 2/3 mortality rate would keep the “plague” from moving back and forth through Europe…?

Good point about the Mongols – my mind faltered there, I had them coming out of the steppes in the wrong century.

Granted that people will often find the silliest of reasons to go to war but you don’t think a higher death toll would keep England and France from being able to field armies capable of invasion? However, as you say, human society is nothing if not resilient.

There’s an idea…would a prolonged and worse plague keep France from unifying? Would we see the continued separation of the various minor kingdoms?

Napoleon: interesting point about religion. Do you think Christianity would become so diluted that it would collapse as a power in the region? Islam conquers the world? Would this stop the papal seat from moving back to Rome?

 

[carlton_bach]

Granted that people will often find the silliest of reasons to go to war but you don’t think a higher death toll would keep England and France from being able to field armies capable of invasion? However, as you say, human society is nothing if not resilient.

There’s an idea…would a prolonged and worse plague keep France from unifying? Would we see the continued separation of the various minor kingdoms?

Well, assuming the French and English are equally hit, the armies on both sides will be equally thinned. The newt result would be two smaller, more expensive, possibly more professional forces.

Now, I could see bad things happening to France (England, too, but in the short term) if the population drops too far. 'Rebuilding' scenarios usually redistribute power down the line, to local authority. That's the last thing the French King needs. And if the plague does affect the Catholic church faith of most people, then one of the French kingship's main legitimation bases is gone.

Go, Burgundy!