The Philippines under Tsarist Russia

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While interesting, chances are this is near-ASB. Russia's interest was in central Asia, Northern China and Korea. I can't see the Russians taking an interest in South Asia at any time, except for perhaps a warm water port and even then why go so far from the homeland? Plus a Russian Philippines is basically the prologue to an imperial Anglo-Russian war. Britain would feel India is threatened and "surrounded" not unlike France and the Habsburgs in the 16th and 17th centuries. So realistically this is impossible to pull off without causing a full-scale war.

Belgium got the Congo and Germany got Papua New Guinea (at least until WWI). It's not too ASB. Especially if Russia focuses East instead of West.
 
That's a cool flag, and the whole thing reminds me of one of the first Europa Universalis IV games I played (a very fun game at that, one of my favourite Europa Univeralis campaigns) where I played Moscowy/Russia and colonised the Philippines. This isn't a realistic scenario in the slightest, though. Most every colonial power is more plausible in the Philippines than Russia, really. You have to keep in mind that until, what, the 1860s, the main Russian port on the Pacific, Okhotsk, was utterly horrible as a port. That's not a place to start establishing a Pacific empire from. For Napoleonic Wars, I'd say they'd probably give Britain the Philippines instead of Russia. After all, Russian presence in the Pacific wasn't strong until what, post-World War II?

Belgium got the Congo and Germany got Papua New Guinea (at least until WWI). It's not too ASB. Especially if Russia focuses East instead of West.

I don't think Russia focusing on the East is a good idea for the tsars, especially since they seemed content enough with the Treaty of Nerchinsk for over 150 years OTL. They'd rather focus on dealing with the Turks and then Poland-Lithuania, which makes so much more sense from their perspective. Siberia is just a waste with some valuable furs from their perspective, and the Philippines giving some spices and maybe some manpower and trade ports with China (which they already border) doesn't add much more to the value of what they get out of the Pacific compared to the value they'd get out of buffer zones against Prussia, France, or any other potential European enemy.
 
That's a cool flag, and the whole thing reminds me of one of the first Europa Universalis IV games I played (a very fun game at that, one of my favourite Europa Univeralis campaigns) where I played Moscowy/Russia and colonised the Philippines. This isn't a realistic scenario in the slightest, though. Most every colonial power is more plausible in the Philippines than Russia, really. You have to keep in mind that until, what, the 1860s, the main Russian port on the Pacific, Okhotsk, was utterly horrible as a port. That's not a place to start establishing a Pacific empire from. For Napoleonic Wars, I'd say they'd probably give Britain the Philippines instead of Russia. After all, Russian presence in the Pacific wasn't strong until what, post-World War II?



I don't think Russia focusing on the East is a good idea for the tsars, especially since they seemed content enough with the Treaty of Nerchinsk for over 150 years OTL. They'd rather focus on dealing with the Turks and then Poland-Lithuania, which makes so much more sense from their perspective. Siberia is just a waste with some valuable furs from their perspective, and the Philippines giving some spices and maybe some manpower and trade ports with China (which they already border) doesn't add much more to the value of what they get out of the Pacific compared to the value they'd get out of buffer zones against Prussia, France, or any other potential European enemy.

I agree with everything that you have said here, but I don't think we should exclude the possibility of a Russian James Brooke for instance. My thoughts are that if Russia does end up with a presence in the Philippines it will largely be a result of whom they have on the ground or in the seas at the time. Which will of course be extremely limited by virtue of their immediate threats and the location of the Philippines.
 
I agree with everything that you have said here, but I don't think we should exclude the possibility of a Russian James Brooke for instance. My thoughts are that if Russia does end up with a presence in the Philippines it will largely be a result of whom they have on the ground or in the seas at the time. Which will of course be extremely limited by virtue of their immediate threats and the location of the Philippines.

Even that might be difficult. A white Rajah type thing I'd imagine as the doing of a cossack, and I just can't imagine why they'd be that far south. It's certainly plausible, I guess, but how would Russia back them up with their poor status in the Pacific? How can they beat either the Spanish or native kingdoms in the Philippines, and is Russia willing to be dragged into an international war because of the actions of some random cossack (from the tsar's perspective)? And subsequently, can Russia defeat the Spanish/natives to gain the Philippines, with their inherent weakness in the Pacific compared to Spain? It's extremely difficult, although if the end result is that cool flag, I guess I can't complain.
 
Russia needs to expand to the Pacific a bit earlier. But the big problem is that Russia's interests/priorities is in her West and South.
 
My intent behind this was to find out if a Russian Philippines was possible, for me to utilise as a background for an ASB timeline. But as I agree this outcome is fairly remote one at that.
 
My intent behind this was to find out if a Russian Philippines was possible, for me to utilise as a background for an ASB timeline. But as I agree this outcome is fairly remote one at that.

If it is an ASB timeline. Let all the Russians soldiers teleport to the Philippines, using alien technology, while the Spanish and rebels are sleeping. Kill all the Spanish and rebels while they are asleep. Take over the Philippines.
 
Even that might be difficult. A white Rajah type thing I'd imagine as the doing of a cossack, and I just can't imagine why they'd be that far south. It's certainly plausible, I guess, but how would Russia back them up with their poor status in the Pacific? How can they beat either the Spanish or native kingdoms in the Philippines, and is Russia willing to be dragged into an international war because of the actions of some random cossack (from the tsar's perspective)? And subsequently, can Russia defeat the Spanish/natives to gain the Philippines, with their inherent weakness in the Pacific compared to Spain? It's extremely difficult, although if the end result is that cool flag, I guess I can't complain.

I think the only feasible way for this to occur is for a Russian explorer to swear fealty to a power that could, ironically the British. French are also an option, but not by much. The Dutch and Spanish are already declining as it were, so it has to be French, I suspect. After that, it's possible to continue as per normal, though admittedly, this makes the islands officially a French rather than Russian possession.

EDIT: Americans are also a possibility, but that just defeats the purpose of having a different Philippines, maybe. :V
 
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Move to ASB please. Seriously, Russian Empire lacked naval capability to expand its influence beyond Manchuria and it would be pretty sure that Britain, France, Japan, and Germany will oppose this adventurism. Also, Russia cannot afford to maintain the unity of the Philippine Archipelago into a single political entity. Therefore, Russian Empire was too poor to rule the Philippines.
 

LordKalvert

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The best scenarios would look at the period between the Triple Intervention and the Spanish American wars. The Russians are showing a lot of interests in the Far East, have the alliance with France granting them significant naval power and Spain is in a lot of trouble with the rebellions in the Philippines and Cuba

There are numerous options and ways to go from there. First we need Spain and Russia to draw closer. That's not too hard. Neither had a quarrel with each other and France and Spain were on good terms . The only small cloud is the Hapsburg Queen regent in Spain but its not insurmountable. Russia might even try to draw closer to Spain to ease her tensions with Austria.

One way to draw them closer is at the Triple Intervention. Japan is annexing Taiwan as well as impinging on Russia interests in the North. So they make a deal- Spain joins the Triple Intervention, the allies push the Japanese back all the way forcing them to give up Taiwan as well. Russia agrees to defend the Philippines against Japanese aggression as part of the deal

When the rebellions break out in Cuba and the Philippines, Russia moves to help her new ally. She refuses all assistance regarding Cuba as America and Russia have intimate ties at the time but is happy to help with the Philippines. The Russian navy starts patrolling Philippine waters, has the Pacific fleet seek winter quarters there and provide support to the Spanish forces. Perhaps the Chinese, totally worthless except in support roles, also help the Spanish

The American war breaks out as OTl. Spain is defeated but given the large presence of the Russians, the intimacy of Russian-American ties and the lack of any domestic pressure, the Americans avoid the Battle of Manila and leave the Philippines alone

After the war, the Spanish lose interest in preserving the far flung Empire and sell out to the Russians.


Another option, would be for the Spanish-American War to go as OTL but the Americans decide at the peace table that the cost of defending the Philippines would be horrendous and not want to take on the tab. The Americans are very reluctant to do so OTL and it wouldn't take too much to change their minds. The main reason for taking the Philippines is that the Americans find giving them back to Spain to be morally reprehensible. Instead of taking them themselves, the Americans demand that Spain turn them over to a "Christian power".

This probably requires a partition with the French, Germans and Russians getting a share- Britain being left empty handed due to Spanish hatred for the British siding with the Americans.

A third option would be for Dewey be defeated in the Battle of Manila Bay- have his ships run over a minefield and ambushed while they are dead in the water. American interest becomes in ending the war and they are satisfied with Cuba and Puerto Rico. The Spanish then sell out to pay for the war. This is a weak option because having retained them on the field of Battle its hard to believe that the Spanish would just sell out.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
The final US Senate vote for acquiring the Philippines is 57-27, just two votes over the 2/3 needed for approval. Getting two Senators to change their minds shouldn't be hard. William Jennings Bryan and ten other Democrats vote for the treaty even though the party was very much against it.

The "logic" Bryan uses is that America could then prepare the Philippines for independence quicker. Convincing how stupid that logic is, shouldn't be that hard
 
To the best of my knowledge the Russians didn't have much of a naval capacity on the west coast during this time, most of their naval power was in the Baltic and the Black Sea. It would be easier to get the Russians to make a land grab in Africa or the Americas than the Philippines. Probably the best way to get the ball rolling would be to give the Russians some reason to really invest in Vladivostok.
 
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