The Philippines is kept as a Spanish possession until WWII

In this thread, I would like to discuss the possibility of the survival of the Philippines as a Spanish possession until WWII. I have one basic turning point: Spain loses all of her American colonies (even Cuba and Puerto Rico). Therefore, she focuses on the Philippines as the source of revenue and agricultural exploitation.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I think they would still probably lose them at some time in the early 1900s. Spain was a second-rate power at best by then, and the war with America really showed that. I could perhaps see the Japanese jumping on the Philippines in 1904 instead of going after Russia.
 
It does not matter at all that Spain were a second-rate power. My guess is that imperialistic ambitions over the Philippines at the turn of the twentieth century would be on favour of Spain keeping the colony if she is able to supress the Aguinaldo rebellion. Look at Portugal, which managed to keep her colonies intact, precisely because of her the imperialistic ambitions of the great powers.

It would be interestingly, though, what would happen with Japanese expansion. Will Japan invade the islands during WWII as in OTL?
 
1) Butterflies, But the.

2) Japan wouldn't be audacious enough to nab the Phillipines in 1904 unless it can a pretty copper-bottomed casus-beli, I'd imagine. Japan was still an emerging power. It's diplomacy was cautious and its ambitious attack on Russia power in the Far East was made with acknolwedged British sponsorship because of the whole Great Game schtick. If Japan is just jumping on decrepit imperial powers and gobbling up their lands, why should Britain approve? Although of course Britain and France wouldn't describe themselves as "decrepit", it could in fact look rather ominous (recall the scene in Ulysses). And the Japanese leadership of the time were more cool-headed than their WWII counterparts and knew all this.
 
You have two sets of problems, external and internal.

Internal
Somehow you'd need to keep Spain from being so needlessly brutal that she alienates Filipino elites. Even a mild reformer like Rizal was put to death.

External
Maybe you have to imagine a Spanish foreign minister skilled enough to play off other powers vs each other so they don't try to seize the Phil.
 
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