But why would the wave shrink over open sea? I understand why a tsunami does, but I can't see how that applies.
The Peshawar Lancers Reboot Thread
- Thread starter Strategos' Risk
- Start date
Thande
Donor
As I understand it, impact-initiated effects would start out with an initial large impact (obviously taking out everything in the vicinity), a circular pulse would spread out in all directions - initially dying down - but then when it reaches the continental shelves, this causes it to build up in a larger and more destructive wave as with any other tsunami.
Basically, when carrying capacity drops below the level of the population, the population doesn't drop to that level but rather crashes far below it. People need enough to eat, and protection from people without enough to eat.
Four basic things to consider.
(1)
For all practical intents and purposes, nothing gets grown in Europe or the United States. Fisheries decline massively too, as they are reliant on photosynthetic plankton.
(a)
Fringes of very suboptimal yields on the north shore of the med and gulf coast. Unfortunatley, the South of Europe is accessible from the North of Europe, population will crash well believe the threshold.
(b)
Everyone has at most a bit less than a year's worth of food on hand. There are three years without crops (frosts on enough days in the summer).
(c)
The summers aren't winters, but rather are novembers/octobers. Frosts to kill crops, but movement is possible. People go across their countries to food, so most areas with food surplus lose those surpluses.
(d)
'Normal' conditions aren't reestablished for a long time. Even after the years without summers end, yields will be much less than before.
(2)
Britain has most of the ships, and nearly all of the warships (the rest of the warships are French). The British government is primarily interested in the saving of British lives. Other nations which have ships will see their ships taken from them. Evacuations would be nice, but if wishes were horses... the Netherlands and Norway and Germany and Iberia have shipping. But not so much warships. So they can't evacuate anywhere, even if they wanted to.
(3)
Establishing yourself in refugia is more than sailing there. You need to grow a crop, too. This needs seed grain, which is likely being eaten, and two years worth of it. Fighting your way in somewhere means that crops aren't getting produced in said region. The alternative (and frankly, only option) is to migrate into crop-producing areas you already control).
This means that migrating into the Carribean or Suriname is useless: the lands are ruined, and no crops are in the ground: you would need to plant them in the next spring, and survive in the interim.
(4)
For a while, most people will respond by sticking together. They don't know that there won't be harvests for years to come. Most food will get eaten. Then everything collapses.
wkwills:
(1) The Mediterranean coast is accessible to the rest of Europe. Yields there are enough only to support a small fraction of the population, and with migrations and warfare, population crashes well below what can be supported in the years without summers. Fragments, maybe.
I agree, OTOH, about the Islands. They survive, albeit with massive disorders and diebacks,
(2) The question isn't if the US has a lot of livestock. The question is whether that lot of livestock (which will have high death rates) can support the population for several years. The answer is no. The livestock get eaten, and then people die. The US isn't a pastoral culture, but rather an agrarian culture with some livestock. Death rates will be comparable to most of the rest of the northern lands: near total. Remember that the pastoral regions are accessible from the agricultural reasons.
Livestock death rates will also be very high on their own terms.
Some cattle cultures will survive in parts of the Great Plains, but only by fighting off everyone else. And not much in the way of civilization will get preserved there.
Guderian's Beard:
Dutch:
The British take the ships, or most of them. Some Dutch survive in Indonesia. The Antilles and Suriname are swept bare by the tidal wave. So the Dutch need to get there and grow a crop and build infastructure. Problem is, this requires a lot of resources. More importantly, the crops that grow in Suriname and the Antilles are not the crops that grow in the Netherlands, nor do the Dutch have the relevant skills to grow such crops.
How do the Austro-Germans survive?
For three years, no food is grown in their lands, and the Balkans. They're severely divided and disunited by the impacts, and have a year of food supplies. No one _south_ of them has any food either- Serbia and Romania and Bulgaria and Greece and the Balkans aren't producing any agricultural products. Taking over those regions does them no good. Ditto the Anatolian plateau, which is next. You have to go all the way into the Arab lands before any substantial crop is being produced. Oh, and there isn't much to anything of a rail infrastructure to transport armies and supplies (such as, for example, gunpowder) into those lands. And the horses have other uses. Not to mention they are politically fragmented, no time to organize. Oh, and even if they take all the Balkans they are faced with a water barrier, and nothing on the other side worth taking. Getting to the Islands? The British and French have the ships. And aren't very interested in sharing: in fact they've taken over any available shipping (you have two options: we board your ship, kill you, and take it, so you die; or you join us, and don't die). No time and no food.
Russians:
Cannibal Russians are a narrative flourish. Frankly, Reboot TL Russians will probably do worse: herders on the nomad zones will be what is left of them.
If some Russians do survive by conquering southern central asia on the other side of the deserts, then they'll be a small military fragment with traditional structures destroyed, and the survivors being military types and leaders of said. Their civilization and people will have died: it'll be more than enough to push them over the edge into something. Or not.
US:
Most of Mexico, less the coasts, is high plateau. In the north, much of that is fairly dry. Essentially, conditions will be as mad as Europe, or nearly so. Which means that Americans trying to fight their way in will be out of the frying pan and into the fire. OTOH, some cattle culture migration will go into there. Ditto some limited migrations along the coast. So Mexico will mostly collapse north of the Isthmus of teantepec. A couple generations latter central Mexico will be a scattering of neoAmerican and neoMexican states, with the north dominated by mixed Hispano and USain cattle cultures.
The South, OTOH, won't survive. The South is accessible on good rail lines from the north, and doesn't produce anything save a smattering on the Gulf Coast. Moreover, once it is clear that there isn't enough food, the Blacks and Whites will turn on eachother in a fairly vicious manner. And the lack of gunpowder fairly soon will be a great equalizer. Not to mention the starving hordes descending from the North. Some groups will survive, those fragments who managed to hide. Not, OTOH, a US. And if some civilized group survives, it'll be by resisting northern refugees. It'll call itself the CSA, or something to that effect. But really, no one does.
the Caribbean is a tossup. Huge parts of the Islands die, but not some parts of Cuba and not Jamaica. But those areas are going to experience a large crash, certainly well below carrying capacity, though some crops get crown. High death rates in the inhabited areas in any case, with huge losses added onto by armed USain refugees.
California is the big tossup here. A substantial crop will be available. OTOH, the railroads survive. And there parts of the year when the railroads can be used. Probably carrying capacity + available seed crops will be overstretched, with collapse of the state government and large dieback, unless the Californians destroy the railroads. If they don't, California will be mixed and reduced civilization. If they do, California is the great power of postwar north america, albeit starting from a base of <1 million (even if you count Oregon).
Summary: the USains don't survive as a country, nor do the vast majority of the people therein. They survive as a mess of fragmented cultures, of which the three civilized ones are: (1) California [includes some Oregonians] with substantial Hispanic influence, (2) Caribbean/Gulf Mexico cultures: mixed US and native descent. Rather nasty and racist, fragmented, and barely civilized and (3) The Cattle Cultures, on the planes and northern mexico, herders but ones with literacy and some technical knowledge, if not much of a tech base or wish to use it. None of these besides (maybe) California will be politically unified. California (by the map/book time) probably controls the pacific coast from washington down to Sinaloa, and is the major civilized part of NA. They probably claim everything up to the crests of the Rockies. The leader's title is "Governor of California one of the United States, Chief Executive of the Provisional Bear Flag Republic, administrator of disaster relief in the Pacific West, and Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces on the West Coast until new elections are held." The Gulf and Caribbean are divided and locked in struggles with themselves and the surviving native states. The cattle cultures aren't very interested in Agriculture. At a minimum, the Raj claims everything east of the mississippi, and an undefined protectrate over the rest save California.
California's interaction with the Raj is limited to diplomacy at a distance, though there are limited skirmishes with Japan over Hawaii.
Note:
The Mega Tsunamis are moderate waves on the open ocean, scary big storm waves on the continental shelves, and huge walls of water on the coast.
Four basic things to consider.
(1)
For all practical intents and purposes, nothing gets grown in Europe or the United States. Fisheries decline massively too, as they are reliant on photosynthetic plankton.
(a)
Fringes of very suboptimal yields on the north shore of the med and gulf coast. Unfortunatley, the South of Europe is accessible from the North of Europe, population will crash well believe the threshold.
(b)
Everyone has at most a bit less than a year's worth of food on hand. There are three years without crops (frosts on enough days in the summer).
(c)
The summers aren't winters, but rather are novembers/octobers. Frosts to kill crops, but movement is possible. People go across their countries to food, so most areas with food surplus lose those surpluses.
(d)
'Normal' conditions aren't reestablished for a long time. Even after the years without summers end, yields will be much less than before.
(2)
Britain has most of the ships, and nearly all of the warships (the rest of the warships are French). The British government is primarily interested in the saving of British lives. Other nations which have ships will see their ships taken from them. Evacuations would be nice, but if wishes were horses... the Netherlands and Norway and Germany and Iberia have shipping. But not so much warships. So they can't evacuate anywhere, even if they wanted to.
(3)
Establishing yourself in refugia is more than sailing there. You need to grow a crop, too. This needs seed grain, which is likely being eaten, and two years worth of it. Fighting your way in somewhere means that crops aren't getting produced in said region. The alternative (and frankly, only option) is to migrate into crop-producing areas you already control).
This means that migrating into the Carribean or Suriname is useless: the lands are ruined, and no crops are in the ground: you would need to plant them in the next spring, and survive in the interim.
(4)
For a while, most people will respond by sticking together. They don't know that there won't be harvests for years to come. Most food will get eaten. Then everything collapses.
wkwills:
(1) The Mediterranean coast is accessible to the rest of Europe. Yields there are enough only to support a small fraction of the population, and with migrations and warfare, population crashes well below what can be supported in the years without summers. Fragments, maybe.
I agree, OTOH, about the Islands. They survive, albeit with massive disorders and diebacks,
(2) The question isn't if the US has a lot of livestock. The question is whether that lot of livestock (which will have high death rates) can support the population for several years. The answer is no. The livestock get eaten, and then people die. The US isn't a pastoral culture, but rather an agrarian culture with some livestock. Death rates will be comparable to most of the rest of the northern lands: near total. Remember that the pastoral regions are accessible from the agricultural reasons.
Livestock death rates will also be very high on their own terms.
Some cattle cultures will survive in parts of the Great Plains, but only by fighting off everyone else. And not much in the way of civilization will get preserved there.
Guderian's Beard:
Dutch:
The British take the ships, or most of them. Some Dutch survive in Indonesia. The Antilles and Suriname are swept bare by the tidal wave. So the Dutch need to get there and grow a crop and build infastructure. Problem is, this requires a lot of resources. More importantly, the crops that grow in Suriname and the Antilles are not the crops that grow in the Netherlands, nor do the Dutch have the relevant skills to grow such crops.
How do the Austro-Germans survive?
For three years, no food is grown in their lands, and the Balkans. They're severely divided and disunited by the impacts, and have a year of food supplies. No one _south_ of them has any food either- Serbia and Romania and Bulgaria and Greece and the Balkans aren't producing any agricultural products. Taking over those regions does them no good. Ditto the Anatolian plateau, which is next. You have to go all the way into the Arab lands before any substantial crop is being produced. Oh, and there isn't much to anything of a rail infrastructure to transport armies and supplies (such as, for example, gunpowder) into those lands. And the horses have other uses. Not to mention they are politically fragmented, no time to organize. Oh, and even if they take all the Balkans they are faced with a water barrier, and nothing on the other side worth taking. Getting to the Islands? The British and French have the ships. And aren't very interested in sharing: in fact they've taken over any available shipping (you have two options: we board your ship, kill you, and take it, so you die; or you join us, and don't die). No time and no food.
Russians:
Cannibal Russians are a narrative flourish. Frankly, Reboot TL Russians will probably do worse: herders on the nomad zones will be what is left of them.
If some Russians do survive by conquering southern central asia on the other side of the deserts, then they'll be a small military fragment with traditional structures destroyed, and the survivors being military types and leaders of said. Their civilization and people will have died: it'll be more than enough to push them over the edge into something. Or not.
US:
Most of Mexico, less the coasts, is high plateau. In the north, much of that is fairly dry. Essentially, conditions will be as mad as Europe, or nearly so. Which means that Americans trying to fight their way in will be out of the frying pan and into the fire. OTOH, some cattle culture migration will go into there. Ditto some limited migrations along the coast. So Mexico will mostly collapse north of the Isthmus of teantepec. A couple generations latter central Mexico will be a scattering of neoAmerican and neoMexican states, with the north dominated by mixed Hispano and USain cattle cultures.
The South, OTOH, won't survive. The South is accessible on good rail lines from the north, and doesn't produce anything save a smattering on the Gulf Coast. Moreover, once it is clear that there isn't enough food, the Blacks and Whites will turn on eachother in a fairly vicious manner. And the lack of gunpowder fairly soon will be a great equalizer. Not to mention the starving hordes descending from the North. Some groups will survive, those fragments who managed to hide. Not, OTOH, a US. And if some civilized group survives, it'll be by resisting northern refugees. It'll call itself the CSA, or something to that effect. But really, no one does.
the Caribbean is a tossup. Huge parts of the Islands die, but not some parts of Cuba and not Jamaica. But those areas are going to experience a large crash, certainly well below carrying capacity, though some crops get crown. High death rates in the inhabited areas in any case, with huge losses added onto by armed USain refugees.
California is the big tossup here. A substantial crop will be available. OTOH, the railroads survive. And there parts of the year when the railroads can be used. Probably carrying capacity + available seed crops will be overstretched, with collapse of the state government and large dieback, unless the Californians destroy the railroads. If they don't, California will be mixed and reduced civilization. If they do, California is the great power of postwar north america, albeit starting from a base of <1 million (even if you count Oregon).
Summary: the USains don't survive as a country, nor do the vast majority of the people therein. They survive as a mess of fragmented cultures, of which the three civilized ones are: (1) California [includes some Oregonians] with substantial Hispanic influence, (2) Caribbean/Gulf Mexico cultures: mixed US and native descent. Rather nasty and racist, fragmented, and barely civilized and (3) The Cattle Cultures, on the planes and northern mexico, herders but ones with literacy and some technical knowledge, if not much of a tech base or wish to use it. None of these besides (maybe) California will be politically unified. California (by the map/book time) probably controls the pacific coast from washington down to Sinaloa, and is the major civilized part of NA. They probably claim everything up to the crests of the Rockies. The leader's title is "Governor of California one of the United States, Chief Executive of the Provisional Bear Flag Republic, administrator of disaster relief in the Pacific West, and Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces on the West Coast until new elections are held." The Gulf and Caribbean are divided and locked in struggles with themselves and the surviving native states. The cattle cultures aren't very interested in Agriculture. At a minimum, the Raj claims everything east of the mississippi, and an undefined protectrate over the rest save California.
California's interaction with the Raj is limited to diplomacy at a distance, though there are limited skirmishes with Japan over Hawaii.
Note:
The Mega Tsunamis are moderate waves on the open ocean, scary big storm waves on the continental shelves, and huge walls of water on the coast.
Wow.
I always thought that california was a smattering of independent city states in PL, so I guess if the railways stay open long enough for some form of a limited crash in california, it could still fracture.