The pernicious effects of a Mexican-American War DELAYED

In this TL, Mexico is a great power whose military power was greater. Having achieved its separation from the mother country with an agreement (the establishment of a Bourbon prince, don Carlos, in the throne), Mexico had its wealth as well trade routes left intact. The country has developed an important navy, as the result of the Mexican War of Independence in which Mexico seized Cuba. This it's not farfetched: in OTL military tradition in the Spanish Empire was more established that it was in Northern America. As a result, Mexico has an important army.

Anyway, the USA are expanding to the Pacific coast. In which sense this can be changed by the presence of a more powerful country, which indeed alter the balance of power in North America? The possibility of a war between both countries is real. But when does it will start and what is going to be the outcome? Consider that the Texan rebellion (1835-6) was crushed by the Royal Mexican Army.

Which are the effects for both countries?
I believe war is going to have place but I wonder if it is going to be delayed or anticipated. In anycase, how war will develop? and what would be the outcome and why?
 
From everything I've read about the history of California Mexican power was on the way out. The greater majority of Mexican interest is within the historical borders of OTL Mexico. It has been provinces on the fringe, those that are farthest away from Mexico City that eventually break away since the central government does not pay attention. The local Californios were tired of being ignored by Mexico City and that is why they favored annexation by either Britain or the United States.

Mexico may hold onto Texas and most likely lose California - even if they had everything going their way. What they don't have at anytime is the population base in their northern territories.
 
Whe need more Information
Having achieved its separation from the mother country with an agreement (the establishment of a Bourbon prince, don Carlos, in the throne),
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Which Don Carlos [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infante_Carlos_of_Spain ]
If it is -- Don Carlos, Prince of Asturias (July 8, 1545 – July 24, 1568) then the Butterflies can travel where ever you want, as this is pre Jamestown.
It is questionable if there will even be a US for Mexico to fight.

If you are talking about-- The Infante Carlos of Spain (29 March 1788- 10 March 1855) was the second surviving son of King Charles IV of Spain and of his wife, Maria Luisa of Parma.

Then your POD is Carlos traveling to Mexico after Nappy put his Brother Joe on the Spanish throne.
Then there is already a US, that holds Louisiana.

Carlos would be in his twenties when the Revolution starts in 1810 --If it would -- the presence of a royal in Country would change a lot.
Having achieved its separation from the mother country with an agreement (the establishment of a Bourbon prince, don Carlos, in the throne), ...................... as the result of the Mexican War of Independence
If the Separation was part of a Agreement ?Why a Mexican War of Independence?
The country has developed an important navy, as the result of the Mexican War of Independence in which Mexico seized Cuba
?Where do these ships come from?
[Anyone know how much of the Spanish Navy followed the King into exile in 1807]

Spain [as did most of Europe] had laws forbidding Naval Architects, shipwright's, Sail or Rope Makers from Emigrating.
Mexico didn't have a Merchant Fleet, The Law demanded that all good be carried in Spanish Ships, and be transshipped thru Spain.
[You loaded the ship in Cuba, sailed to Spain, got the proper paper work, then sailed to Mexico [or] to sell/unload the cargo.
This is why most Intra Spanish American trade was done by British/Americans Ships. [Smugglers]

In the early 1820's Mexico bought a small Navy from the US, in order to stop the Spanish raids along the coast. [Mostly Cutters and Sloops]

In the 1860's Maximillin gave out several contracts to Mexicans to establish Shipping Companies.
After the Republic was reinstated these were transfered to an American company who agreed to expand its Caribbean routes to include Mexico.
With them went Mexico's last chance to become a Major Maritime Power.

If this is taking place in the 1810's what happens to the Otis-Adams treat of 1819, and Florida.

O-A sold Florida, set the Louisiana/Texas Border, and gave the US all Spanish claims north of the 42o from the Red River west to the South seas*.
It sound like one of the 1810's~1820's Filibustering expeditions in Texas, May lead to a earlier US/Mex War, not a delayed one.

Or ITTL Spain - upset by Mexico's taking Cuba - may still enter into the Otis-Adams treaty, and set the Border on the Rio Nucues, instead of the Sabine.




*[Hum,, Wonder if whe could have pushed that South Sea claim to include the Philippines during the Cuban War of the 1850's]
 
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