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The attached article is pretty short, and the part that matters here goes something like this: In 1861-63 there were negotiations between France and Austria that involved breaking up Italy once again, this time into 3 parts, with Venetia to be ceded to the northern part and Austria to seek territorial compensation elsewhere. These failed as a result of Austria's pride combined with its distrust of Napoleon III and its belief that Italy would break apart anyway. What I'm wondering is whether it was possible for such a scheme to be implemented, and just what it would look like if it was. Assuming it was possible to make Vienna see reason, I see 3 possibilities:

(1) The Papal States to be restored to their original borders. The Kingdom of the 2 Sicilies to be recreated under Ferdinand IV, the Habsburg claimant to Tuscany. The rest of the peninsula, including Venetia, to form the Kingdom of Northern Italy. This would require an ultimatum to Italy.

(2) The Papal States to be restored to their original borders. The Kingdom of the 2 Sicilies to be recreated under Prince Murat, cousin of the Emperor and son of Joachim Murat. The rest of the peninsula, including Venetia, to form the Kingdom of Northern Italy. Austria to be compensated with Bosnia (including the Sandzak) and Herzegovina. This would require ultimatums to Italy and Turkey.

(3) The Papal States to be restored to their original borders. The Kingdom of the 2 Sicilies to be recreated under Prince Murat. The rest of the peninsula, including Venetia, to form the Kingdom of Northern Italy. Austria to be compensated with Romania. The problem here is that Russia would never stand for Austria's choice of compensation, so unless both Paris and Vienna are willing to risk war it will become necessary to bring St Petersburg into the secret negotiations. Obviously Russia would ask for the return of southern Bessarabia and the cancelling of the Black Sea clauses of the Treaty of Paris, as they always did, but I'd imagine such an enlargement of Austria would be worth more. So let's say they also get agreement on the annexation of the Danube Delta, withdrawal of Turkish forces from Serbia and recognition of Montenegro's independence from the Ottoman Empire. This would require ultimatums to Italy and Turkey, but with Russia's cooperation the odds are more in their favor.

Which of these would be more likely (I'm inclined to say the 2nd) and could it be done without going to war?
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