Okay, we've talked about this before. I don't think it leads to war outright, but...
Morgenthau, in response to the Incident, proposed seizing Japanese assets in America. At a meeting in December, some members favored dispatching the fleet to Hawaii, or war, while Roosevelt himself toyed with a blockade or embargo.
Some shrewd Japanese handling of the Incident kept it from escalating, as well as isolationist impulses in the US, but IMO it's posssible for Japan to play its hand badly; say it's a regrettable incident, but ineveitable given America's straying into Japan's sphere of Influence; Roosevelt responds with an embargo...