The Panay War

Okay, we've talked about this before. I don't think it leads to war outright, but...

Morgenthau, in response to the Incident, proposed seizing Japanese assets in America. At a meeting in December, some members favored dispatching the fleet to Hawaii, or war, while Roosevelt himself toyed with a blockade or embargo.

Some shrewd Japanese handling of the Incident kept it from escalating, as well as isolationist impulses in the US, but IMO it's posssible for Japan to play its hand badly; say it's a regrettable incident, but ineveitable given America's straying into Japan's sphere of Influence; Roosevelt responds with an embargo...
 
I don't think a 1937 embargo would lead to war in the same fashion as the 1941 embargo. Japan is in a much weaker position; the UK, France, and the Netherlands are not distracted by affairs in Europe and a preemptive strike on the Pacific Fleet is not possible since its based in California. Moreover, given that this embargo was precipitated by a Japanese attack on an American vessel (and not general Japanese aggression), the Dutch and the British may not join with the US in the embargo. I imagine the US embargo would be damaging to the Japanese economy, but not the death sentence it was in 1941 and thus no need for Japan to go to war.

The two sides may be able to continue staring angrily at one another but with no shots fired for some time. My guess would be that the two powers would eventually come to some sort of face-saving agreement for both sides. The US is likely slightly more prepared for war when it does break out, with some limited rearmament occurring. The big impact would not be the status of the US military but rather that American factories are in a better position to sell war material to the Western European powers when (if?) war breaks out in Europe...particularly if the US and Japan wrap up their conflict as another one breaks out over Poland.
 
I don't think a 1937 embargo would lead to war in the same fashion as the 1941 embargo. Japan is in a much weaker position; the UK, France, and the Netherlands are not distracted by affairs in Europe and a preemptive strike on the Pacific Fleet is not possible since its based in California. Moreover, given that this embargo was precipitated by a Japanese attack on an American vessel (and not general Japanese aggression), the Dutch and the British may not join with the US in the embargo. I imagine the US embargo would be damaging to the Japanese economy, but not the death sentence it was in 1941 and thus no need for Japan to go to war.

Note that while this was going on Britain was pushing for a simultaneous naval demonstration, and Roosevelt was thinking about sending some ships to Singapore.
 
If you go to this forum

http://warships1discussionboards.yuku.com/forums/67

and search for 'Panay War' you will come up with parts of a detailed timeline written by a guy named Theodore. If the earlier parts have dropped off the end of the board I'm sure he'll email it to you if you drop him a message.

Is thre any way to search for them in the proper order?

Ithink you could make the argument that a Panay war is bad for Europe; it wouldn't be overly popular in America, end with the defeat of Japan but nots its destruction, and probably lead to a president in 1940 who wants to keep us out of Europe...
 
Just read it. Wow... the textbook example of Ameriwank. With a POD in 1933, the US has a space station in 1942 and mass drivers in 1953, and of course its imperium extends to most of the world by 1958 :rolleyes:

I can buy most of the general points of the way he builds up an undemocratic US, but the tech/war stuff is pure Draka. Why did he have to bring that in?
 
I liked the initial domestic lead-up, possibly because I'm a wonk. I also liked the smashing of American politics into one PRI-styled dominant party and three minor opposition groups, kind of mirrors the Dems/GOP vs. the Libertarians/Greens/Constitution Party in the real world. But it's pretty much Ameriwank on purpose, as he states in the prologue. Ultra-ridiculous war and completely ASB policies.
 
Is thre any way to search for them in the proper order?

PM Theodore, he will send it to you I'm sure.

I think you could make the argument that a Panay war is bad for Europe;

I doubt it, it puts Europe in the position of the US in 1939 - 40 OTL and the US in the position of the UK and France in the same period. The modest American arms industry of 1937 won't be able to cope with the demands of the military or expand quickly enough so it seems likely that European weapons will be actively sought for at least a couple of years. In OTL it took the US industry over 2 years to crank up to a point where it could satisfy the demands of Britain, France and a growing but unengaged US military.

From the initial stimulus of the 1938 French and British orders American weapons didn't start appearing in quantity in Britain till 1941.
 
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