The Panay Incident: Any chance of an early Pacific War?

loughery111

Banned
I'm contemplating trying my hand at a TL sometime soon, assuming I can force myself to do the necessary research... so does anyone have a good assessment of whether the Panay Incident could have led to a Pacific War a few years early, and what the then-current state of naval affairs was?
 
I'm contemplating trying my hand at a TL sometime soon, assuming I can force myself to do the necessary research... so does anyone have a good assessment of whether the Panay Incident could have led to a Pacific War a few years early, and what the then-current state of naval affairs was?

Its possible, but you'd have to push for it.
After all, U-boats attacked a number of US destroyers without forcing a declaration, so one gunboat is pushing it.
Perhaps if the Japanese not only refused to pay reparations etc but then did more attacks on US possessions and citizens it might. But it would be difficult.
 
The United States in 1937 is unlikely to have declared war on Japan because of Panay. If the Japanese really did some bad things to Americans in China and flaunted it, there would be diplomatic repercussions, and maybe trade sanctions. At that point, Japan would likely back down to secure trade and some face saving measures employed.

Japan in 1937 is not in the same position as Japan in 1941. Japan cannot assume it can conquer the Dutch East Indies and Malaysia to secure resources, and neither the Dutch or British are distracted with fighting against Hitler.
 
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