The Pale Horseman Rides Early

We could also see an enhanced conservatism on all sexual and cultural habits, as this early AIDS epidemy will kill the Sexual Revolution before it even came to existence. The Roaring Twenties will not be as free as in our timeline. A return of Victorian values, maybe?
 
assuming they're all still going to happen.

True, true. Though I don't think the Nazis will be butterflied; this is just one more thing to blame on Ze Jewish Conspiracy. Though I wonder if some high-ranking members die from VID...that would be interesting depending on who dies.

And Japan will likely be doing horrific experimenting with Chinese victims; Unit 731 was active as early as 1935, so even if the Japanese don't invade China, there will still likely be some sort of horrific human experimentation going on there.
 
Wow, lots of replies!

How do you find an AIDS vaccine that early on?

You don't.

The AIDS virus is thought to have been in humans for decades before it became widespread IOTL. My purpose in writing this TL is, at least in part, to show what kind of bullet we dodged...

Looks like this will destroy the British Empire. And the, er, sea men of the Royal Navy are the culprits. Irony on so many levels.

Hardly. In fact it may prolong it. With the disease propagating as OTL many colonies in Africa are hardly going to be in a good state for independence. Of course OTOH the expense may cause the colonial powers to cut them loose that much faster...

WTF:eek::eek::eek: Good god with both the spanish flu and Aids Europe and Britain are screwed. Remember no vaccines:eek:

The Spanish flu may actually be a blessing since VID carriers would be more likely to die of it; the spread will be slowed, at least for a while.

Just had a nasty thought for WWII (assuming it isn't butterflied); weaponized VID. It wouldn't be like normal biological weapons; it would be a suicide weapon. During an equivalent to Barbarossa, the Soviets inject women left behind to the Nazi advance with AIDS-infected fluid. They then try to seduce as many invaders as they can, to incapacitate the Nazi soldiers. This kind of thing would only be possible in totalitarian dictatorships; the Soviets I see as the principle users of such a tactic, possibly the Nazis adopt it during the final days, and Japan may make plans to use it, or try to spread it in China.

That's nasty. And rather plausible...
I can see a slightly earlier rise of the Nazis in this scenario. If there is a significant VID outbreak in Germany, I can see them blaming it on the Jews, as the Black Death was. And it can be called a disease of homosexuals, who the Nazis also hated.

Definitely.

The worst thing about all of this is that it's happening just as blood transfusions become possible on a large scale. Especially since, at least according to the Genocide, contaminated blood transfusions are by far the most consistent source of infection (about 90% of those exposed to HIV that way end up infected). And I have no idea how long it would be before they'd have any way to reliably test for the presence of HIV.

The blood test for HIV was discovered about 3 years after the disease was. Blood testing for diseases was already discovered at the time of the POD: the blood test for syphilis was invented in 1906, for instance. However the method was very unrefined and tested false positives for other diseases as well. The modern test method used to detect AIDS antibodies was discovered in 1971. TTL I suspect it will be discovered earlier...

Blood banks became widespread before tests for many diseases such as hepatitis were available; TTL I think the most common response will be to hold on to the blood for several months and monitor the donors for symptoms before using it.

We could also see an enhanced conservatism on all sexual and cultural habits, as this early AIDS epidemy will kill the Sexual Revolution before it even came to existence. The Roaring Twenties will not be as free as in our timeline. A return of Victorian values, maybe?

Probably not the return of Victorian values. The sexual revolution was only made possible by birth control and condoms are an effective barrier against AIDS. What we may see is a focus on safe sex and less... enthusiastic free love movements.

I plan to update this TL once a week or so, RL permitting. Stay tuned...
 
Nitpick alert:

No such thing as ensigns in the Royal Navy, well apart from the White Ensign. ;)
The rank you are looking for is either Midshipman, or Sub-Lieutenant.
 
The AIDS virus is thought to have been in humans for decades before it became widespread IOTL. My purpose in writing this TL is, at least in part, to show what kind of bullet we dodged...

Indeed, current estimates suggest it emerged as a distinct virus (ie not just a strain of SIV) around the turn of the 20th Century, around the time you suggest in your TL. The POD here is that it spreads outside central Africa around 30 years earlier (it is estimated that HIV spread from Africa to the rest of the world during WW2, it then took 30 - 40 years for doctors to click that this was a new disease)
 
What really boosted the spread of HIV was the drug taking of the late 60's and 70's, coupled with hormonal birth control that meant barrier methods were not required. Apparently HIV likes the disrupted systems of someone on drugs (heroin / ketamine / cocaine) to spread more easily.

As Kellineil says HIV has been around since the early 20th century, and your chances of catching it through normal straight sexual intercourse between healthy adults (apart from one having HIV) are not in fact that high, unless the infected person is in the 1st 6 months of infection or in the AIDS phase (for a man about 1 in 500, and a woman about 1 in 300, with even better odds if the man is circumcised).

Also there is some evidence that a percentage (5-20%) of people of European descent have a level of immunity to HIV (either complete immunity or affected less). After all this virus has been around since the time of this POD and the worlds population has steadily risen. This period also saw great advances in the developed world in medicine and nutrition, as general health is also importnat in the spread of HIV, which is partly why it has had such a devestating impact on parts of Africa :((and to a lesser extent Asia) were there are issue with nutrition and health care and the populations general health is worse anyway leading to already weakened immune systems.
 

Looks like this will destroy the British Empire.

Why so? Itwill create rather weakened populations which shall be a) easier to control andb) more dependent on European goodwill.

HIV mostlyhits the young and active, the carriers of revolts and upheaval.

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I am quitesure that the pivotal period concerning the further development will be WW1.The field brothels on both sides of the front should be a terrible breedingground for the virus. Ironically, as these places will spread the virus acrossthe continent and home to the wives of returning soldiers after 1918, the closemedical observation of these places (after all, military authorities were awareof VD) might also lead to early research on the existence and causes of thedisease.

I do not expectmeaningful medical measures against it to emerge anytime soon. As othersimplied, there will be more social control. Fortunately, preservatives werealready widely available and mass-produced at this point of time and belongedto the inventory of European armies. Anybody taking good notice when officialstalked about the already existing VD should have been keen to use one in caseof taking part in such a distraction. In our age of AIDS we tend to forget theearlier illnesses similar to it.

I think itis up to one’s personal taste of Armageddon how widespread such an earlierAIDS-epidemic becomes. I would like to hear a mathematical evaluation of howmuch damage that sailor could do.
 

Hendryk

Banned
Just had a nasty thought for WWII (assuming it isn't butterflied); weaponized VID. It wouldn't be like normal biological weapons; it would be a suicide weapon. During an equivalent to Barbarossa, the Soviets inject women left behind to the Nazi advance with AIDS-infected fluid. They then try to seduce as many invaders as they can, to incapacitate the Nazi soldiers. This kind of thing would only be possible in totalitarian dictatorships; the Soviets I see as the principle users of such a tactic, possibly the Nazis adopt it during the final days, and Japan may make plans to use it, or try to spread it in China.
There is no purpose in weaponizing a virus that takes years to kill its victims. Any war would have been long won or lost by the time it starts making a difference.

The real problem has been hinted at in the first post, it's the advent of mass vaccination campaigns. Since at that time those were done without changing the needles between each shot, it means that a perverse consequence of attempts to cure endemic diseases will instead result in more widespread AIDS contamination.
 
There is no purpose in weaponizing a virus that takes years to kill its victims. Any war would have been long won or lost by the time it starts making a difference.

The real problem has been hinted at in the first post, it's the advent of mass vaccination campaigns. Since at that time those were done without changing the needles between each shot, it means that a perverse consequence of attempts to cure endemic diseases will instead result in more widespread AIDS contamination.

1. It could be a long-term plan to screw the Germans even if they win. If the Germans successfully occupy all the way to the A-A line, they're not going to be able to hold their conquests in the long run if the soldiers, the soldiers' wives, and the soldiers' children are all dying of AIDS.

Of course, German soldiers infected with HIV in this fashion will probably rape Russian women and infect them (if they don't use condoms, which I was under the impression the German commanders wanted them to in order to avoid children), and infected Russian soldiers taking their revenge in Germany (if WWII goes like OTL) will infect people there...

Jeez. This could be really bad for everyone.

2. I was going to bring that up, but you beat me to it. That's going to suck.
 
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