The Owl of the steppes
Chapter 3: To slay the bear
Even with three realms being aligned against him, Ivan still believed that victory will be his. After all, Muscovite armies had already defeated their Novgorodian counterparts less than a decade before, crushing a force that was 7 times their size. Their other opponent – the Great Horde, was but a carved up remnant of what it once was, nothing but a shadow of the Golden Horde which dominated East Europe for over a century. And the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the strongest out of three realms, had just recently engaged in two conflicts, intervening into both the Crimean conflict and the War of the Priests, loosing quite a number of men in both, not to mention that Lithuania would need some time to organised an army big enough for such a campaign. And that’s not even mentioning the support from the various minor Ruthenian states, which were vassals of the Grand Duke. This meant that for some time Muscovite forces would only need to fight Novgorodians and Golden Horde Tatars, enemies which were believed to be quite weaker than them. Thus Ivan split his armies into three, sending two groups, one led by his son – Ivan the Young, to Oka, and another, led by his brother Andrey Menshoy to Kolomna, while the third, biggest force moved north, led by Ivan the 3rd himself.
This war was of course noticed by Nur Devlet, who was waiting for something like this for quite some time, as such a conflict provided a great opportunity to capture massive amounts of slaves. While the Crimean Khanate didn’t trade in them, at least not anymore, differently from many other nomadic and semi-nomadic states, their economy was still highly dependent on slavery. And even yearly raids into Caucasus didn’t provide enough captives. Not to mention that he had been preparing for such an opportunity for the longest time, purchasing as many pieces of black powder weaponry as possible and searching for ways to combat certain tactics.
While both the Khanates need for slaves and Nur Devlet’s wish to test the new weaponry he acquired, there was also a fear which compelled him towards entering the conflict. The possibility that the Grand Duchy of Lithuania would somehow lose the conflict was a terrifying prospect to the Khan Qirim, as this would mean the loss of his biggest trading partner, his only ally, and, of course, the guarantee that Crimean Khanate would remain under his control. After all, his brother Menli was still alive and if he was able to gain support from a substantial power, such as the Ottoman Empire, he could still come back to reclaim the throne. And alone, Nur Devlet couldn’t win such a war.
And thus, in the beginning of fall in year 1480 the Crimean Khanate declared war on the Grand Duchy of Muscovy and its allies, joining the alliance arranged against the realm. He swiftly raised a twenty thousand strong force, such a process was quite faster in a semi-nomadic realm, and began moving northeast, where he was able to catch up with the army led by Ahmet Khan of the Great Horde. And while both Khans had conducted raids upon each other realms before, they were able to collaborate this time. It isn’t known how grand in size was the force led by Ahmet, it is claimed that it was the biggest Tatar army that was gathered in the 15th century.
Combined Tatar forces advanced until they reached the Ugra river in October, specifically the Oka-Ugra junction, where they were met by the Muscovites, led by Ivan the Young. While the Muscovites were substantially outnumbered by their enemies, they were better equipped, possessing far greater amounts of cannons and other black powder weaponry than similar equipment that was brought by Nur Devlet. Of course in a conventional battle, the Tatars would still be able to quickly overwhelm the Slavs through sheer numbers of both their soldiers an countless projectiles that could be launched by such a force. But this wasn’t a conventional battle as both groups were trapped on the opposite sides of the Ugra river, which was impossible for both sides to cross due to how wide it was, with Muscovites occupying the northern side and Crimean and Great Horde holding to the south.
Such an unique position meant that the only way for the armies to engage was firing projectiles across the river, which they, begging in 15th of October, they did. The battlefield extended seven kilometers along the Ugra from its mouth westward, with both sides unleashing as many arrows and bullets as they could. However, as mentioned previously, the river was quite wide, rendering many of the projectiles launched by the Tatars ineffective. And every attempt to cross the river, as mentioned previously, proved to be disastrous.
Miniature in a Ruthenian chronicle depicting the engagement near the Ugra River
However, while it seemed that the Muscovites were holding on, this was not the case as they were extremely overextended just by trying to hold the kilometers upon kilometers of the river. This meant that Ivan was in quite a horrible position, as he couldn't spare any forces to stop Nur Devlet and a part of his forces from crossing the river at a location called „Opakhon“, several kilometers to the west from the battle.
This occurrence, which happened on 28th of October, led to the so called „Great slaughter at the Ugra River“, as Nur Devlet‘s forces struck at Muscovites from the west, while Ahmed began an all-out assault across the river. While Ivan the Young himself and quite a few of his men escaped and were able to fled north, where he met up with the forces of his uncle. The rest of his army was either killed or captured by the Tatars, who proceeded to sent them south as slaves. They capitalized on this success by pillaging various nearby settlements, plundering any foodstuffs they could find, after all, such a massive force required similarly massive amounts of supplies, and the sheep that the Tatar force was bringing with themselves weren't numerous enough to sustain them for long, forcing the nomadic force to scavenge for sustenance, massively slowing their advance.
While this was happening, Grand Duke Casimir of Lithuania had finally completed gathering his own army in the end of November. This force wasn't as grand the Tatar horde that was plundering the southern Muscovite territories, but it was more than enough to match any of the forces that Ivan had gathered. However due to the late date at which this was done, Casimir couldn't begin his campaign and was forced to wait for spring.
Differently from the failures of his son, Grand Duke Ivan the Third was extremely successful in his campaign into Novgorod. In a repeat of the scenario that have happened almost a decade ago, the Muscovite army was easily able to crush any forces that the merchant republic could throw at them. He was even able to besiege several of the Novgorodian cities, including the capital itself. However, this strain of successes couldn't continue, as the Tatar victory and the near destruction of one of the Muscovite armies forced him to break the sieges and move south to stop the advances of his enemies.
When he reached Moscow, where he met up with the forces of both his son and his brother, he moved the national treasury and other members of the royal family to the city of Beloozero. He also began raising another force, trying to compensate for the army that was lost near river Ugra. The Grand Duke also requested his vassals to raise their own armies and come to help him.
The onset of winter was just perfect for the plans of the Muscovite monarch as it meant that his enemies would be unable to advance into his realm, giving him valuable to time to enact all of his plans and prepare to push out both the Tatars and Lithuanians.
Even at this point, if everything went well for Ivan the Third, he could still emerge victorious, at least that‘s what he himself seemed to believe. Novgorod was already defeated, and while the forces of Great Horde, Crimean Khanate and Grand Duchy of Lithuania were still a threat, various sources claim that Ivan believed that even the combined forces of these realms wouldn't be enough to defeat both the armies loyal to him subjugate the realm.
And while Ivan was possibly correct to assume that if his realm was united and he received assistance from his vassals and allies he could emerge victorious, however neither of these things would happen, due to his own previous actions. He would simply refuse to share any of his conquests with his brothers, for example. Not only that, but he forced both his brothers and various dukes of minor Ruthenian duchies to sign treaties with him. In these documents they were forced to promise that after their death, their realms would be inherited by Ivan.
All of this meant that instead of gathering armies to support Muscovy, they would ignore the call for war, instead gathering their armies and waiting. However, one of the Grand Duke's brothers - Andrei the Elder, was ready to use this opportunity to seat himself on the Muscovite throne.
During the winter he gathered an army from both his own lands and estates and the ones of his supporters and preparing for a campaign to seat himself on the throne in Moscow. He also began negotiations with both Ahmet Khan and Casimir Jaggelion in order to gain their help. And through quite a few promises in case of victory, including having to pay a yearly tribute to Great Horde and return quite a few territories to the Republic of Novgorod, he was able to ensure the help of Lithuania and Great Horde Tatars.
And as winter turned to spring the war continued. The forces of Crimean Khanate, Grand Duchy of Lithuania and Great Horde began their advances anew. It was also at this time that Andrei began his revolt, joining his forces with the ones of Casimir Jaggelion.
This started a chain reaction, as now the various dukes of Ruthenian minors, seeing an opportunity to strike, rebelled and turned against their previous overlord.
Ivan had made many enemies during his years as the Grand Duke, and now it led to him being besieged on all sides.