The Owl of the steppes, a Crimean timeline

Chapter 2: The spreading ripples

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Chapter 2: The spreading ripples

While Nur Devlet had emerged victorious over his brother, forcing the traitorous Menli Giray to flee to the Ottoman Empire, and uniting all the territories of the Crimean Khanate, the war wasn’t truly over yet. The Genoan colonies, which still remained in the peninsula, were the next target of the Crimean Khan and thus were swiftly besieged.

Nur Devlet hoped that by conquering and subsequently adding these cities to his own realm he could exert some control over the trade in the black sea, and thus increase the wealth of the Khanate. However these plans would come to fruition easily. There were two problems which the Khan and his ally Jonas Kęsgaila encountered while besieging the Genoan cities. Firstly, both the Crimeans and Lithuanians lacked the equipment necessary for such military actions. Secondly, the siege of the four remaining settlements required more men than both forces could muster. This meant that no matter what the Khan Qirim wished, he simply couldn’t break through the fortifications of his enemies.

However, even in such conditions Nur Devlet didn’t want to give up on the endeavor. Of course he couldn’t actively besiege the Genoan fortifications due to the previously mentioned shortages, and thus it’s believed that his plan was to wait until his enemies would completely loose both the will and resources necessary to continue defending and offer him a peace treaty with terms that he would finally deem suitable.

With neither of the sides wishing to continue any active military engagements the stalemate drew on for several months. But it wasn’t meant to last, as in the spring of 1470 the Khan of the remnant of the Golden Horde – Ahmed Khan organised a raid into the sparsely populated and thus barely defended Ruthenian territories and even beyond. This campaign forced Jonas Kęsgaila to withdraw from Crimea in an attempt to stop the advancing Tatars from plundering the southern provinces of Lithuania. Of course, due to the slower movement of the Lithuanian forces and the amount it took for the message to reach him, he wasn't able to stop the advancing Tatar host.

The Tatar raid was able to push through the southern territories of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and even cross into the Principality of Moldova, where it was finally stopped on August 23rd in the battle of Soroca, where the Golden Horde army was defeated by Moldovan forces under Stepan the Great with minor allied help.

After the departure of the Lithuanian army and with their return nowhere in sight, Nut Devlet found himself in quite the difficult position. Now he was completely lacking in capability to keep the Genoan cities besieged. Thus on 6th November 1470 a piece treaty was signed in the Genoese city of Vesporo in the eastern part of the Crimean peninsula.

Crimeans didn't receive anty noteworthy territorial concessions from the treaty, with only Azov and surrounding territories becoming part of the Khanate. Genoans also agreed to pay yearly tribute to Nur Devlet.

This Pyrrhic victory was followed by another war and another failure in 1472 as Nur Devlet tried to conquer the minor principality of Theodoro. And again the previous scenario repeated: the Crimean cavalry dominated the battlefield, not only far more numerous than enemy forces, but also equipped with black powder weapons to a certain extent. But after the Gothic armies were defeated and pushed to the fortified cities, the Tatars, yet again, lacking in the necessary siege equipment, were unable to fully break their enemies yet again. After a year long siege a peace treaty was signed in Doros on 5th June, leaving Theodoro as yet another tributary state of the Crimean Khanate.

The following years were relatively peaceful with raids east and south being the only military actions undertaken by the Crimean Tatars. However, these territories were sparsely populated and the people that lived there were hardy and of course warlike themselves. This meant that the amounts of slaves brought from such raids weren't numerous, not even close to the levels that other, more eastern khanates could gather. Such a deficit, latter followed by a shift in dominance of the Black sea trade, would latter result in a complete change of the main trade income of the Khanate.

While the period from 1473 to 1479 was relatively peaceful and stable for the Crimean Khanate, the same couldn't be said for other countries of Europe. To the south from the Tatar realm, another Turkic nation – the Ottoman Empire waged wars across several fronts. Firstly they defeated the white sheep turkmen, the Aq Qoyunlu, overwhelming them in the battle of Amida in 1474 and taking a part of the westernmost territories belonging to the tribal confederation. In 1476 the Ottomans and the Moldovans fought near Barlad. The Ottomans experiencing a defeat in this battle, as they were crushed by the armies of Stephen the great. Defeat was followed by victory in 1477 near Tecuci, where the Ottoman armies, under Hadim Suleiman Pasha, defeated King Stephen. And while the Turks were forced to withdraw and thus unable to push further, they were still able to gain several border territories.

However, all of these other gains pale in comparison to what was gained by the Turks from the victory in the Ottoman-Venetian war. The 16 year long war, from 1463 to 1479, between the Ottoman Empire and the Rebuplic of Venice, Principality of Zeta, Skanberg‘s Albania, Maniots, Greek rebels and even Hungary and partially Genoa later on, ended in a Turkish victory. Albania, Zeta, Venetian and Genoan territories in Greece, Balkans and Anatolia were all taken by the Turks in their victory, leading to an increase of Ottoman influence over trade in the Eastern Mediterranean and indirectly, to the massive increase of their navy.

Of course the Turks under Mehmed II weren't the only power to expand their territory and influence. The Jagellion dynasty of Lithuania and Poland also expanded both their influence and their realms. Their first acquisition was in the form of the crown of Bohemia, which Vladislaus, son of Casimir, received in 1471 after the death of the Hussite king George of Poděbrad. However, it took another 7 years of war with the Kingdom of Hungary under Matthias Corvinus, who himself wished to become the king of Bohemia, to solidify this gain. However, while at first it seemed that Corvinus emerging victorious was imminent and unavoidable as his forces had almost pushed the Jagiellon supporters out, his attack on Poland in spring of 1476, an event which led to the Kingdom joining the war on the side of Bohemia the same year tipped the scales. While after this event the war continued for barely a year, as Corvinus wished to end the conflict as soon as possible due to Ottoman raids to the south, it was very bloody due to the same reason.

However no matter what the black army did, there was little besides burning everything in their path of retreat to stop the advancing forces of both Jagiellons. Of course they did so, destroying entire villages and burning and looting harvests. But while this did slow the advancing forces considerably, it didn't stop them and thus Corvinus decided to give up on the endeavor. The peace treaty was signed in Olomouc in 1478. In it Matthias Corvinus acknowledged Vladislaus as the rightful king of Bohemia, but for this the Jagiellons had to give up south Moravia.

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Vladislaus Jagiellon, King of Bohemia

However, this war with Hungary wasn't the only conflict that Poland got involved in the time period. To the north they were also fighting in the so called „War of the Priests“, the escalation of the previous disagreement between King Casimir and the Teutonic knights over who should become the Bishop of Warmia. The Jagellion wished to point Wincent Kielbasa, while the Teutons supported Nicolaus von Tüngen. This disagreement escalated into open war when due to Hungarian encouragment the Teutonic Knights seized Warmia in 1476. This was followed by advancements south and west as the order attempted to both seize Royal Prussia and parts of Masovia. Such a development was extremely worrying as all available Polish forces were in the south pushing back the Hungarians.

Casimir was put in a tough spot by this development and was forced to end the war with Hungarians as soon a possible as the Knights were ravaging northern Polish countryside with nobody there to stop them.

In this difficult position he made a decision which was extremely criticized by the polish slachta. He sent a letter to Lithuania propria ordering Jonas Kęsgaila to begin military actions against the order. And so in the same Grand Ducal army crossed Neman and began taking over lands belonging to the order. This wasn't a massive force by no means, but it was enough to temporarily stop the Teutonic advance into Poland, which in turn allowed Casimir to sign a peace treaty with the Hungarians and move his troops north, defeating the knights in several battles and thus ending their rampage. A piece treaty was signed in Piotrków, where the Knights were forced to accept Wincent Kielbasa as the bishop of Warmia. While this document didn't force the Teutons to give up any land, this didn't really matter as from that point Scalvia was owned by the Grand Duchy of Lithuania in all but name, something which angered both the knights and the Slachta.

These two successful, if bloody, wars were followed by Casimir II Jaggelion in 1478 in the form of alliances with two quite different realms: the Republic of Novgorod, which hoped that this alliance would protect them from the Grand Duchy of Muscovy, and the remnant of the Golden horde.

However the Muscovite ruler – Ivan the 3rd, wasn't about to give up on his ambition, even when his realm was surrounded by opposing states. And thus in 1479 he declared war on Novgorod.
 
Chapter 3: To slay the bear
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The Owl of the steppes
Chapter 3: To slay the bear
Even with three realms being aligned against him, Ivan still believed that victory will be his. After all, Muscovite armies had already defeated their Novgorodian counterparts less than a decade before, crushing a force that was 7 times their size. Their other opponent – the Great Horde, was but a carved up remnant of what it once was, nothing but a shadow of the Golden Horde which dominated East Europe for over a century. And the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the strongest out of three realms, had just recently engaged in two conflicts, intervening into both the Crimean conflict and the War of the Priests, loosing quite a number of men in both, not to mention that Lithuania would need some time to organised an army big enough for such a campaign. And that’s not even mentioning the support from the various minor Ruthenian states, which were vassals of the Grand Duke. This meant that for some time Muscovite forces would only need to fight Novgorodians and Golden Horde Tatars, enemies which were believed to be quite weaker than them. Thus Ivan split his armies into three, sending two groups, one led by his son – Ivan the Young, to Oka, and another, led by his brother Andrey Menshoy to Kolomna, while the third, biggest force moved north, led by Ivan the 3rd himself.

This war was of course noticed by Nur Devlet, who was waiting for something like this for quite some time, as such a conflict provided a great opportunity to capture massive amounts of slaves. While the Crimean Khanate didn’t trade in them, at least not anymore, differently from many other nomadic and semi-nomadic states, their economy was still highly dependent on slavery. And even yearly raids into Caucasus didn’t provide enough captives. Not to mention that he had been preparing for such an opportunity for the longest time, purchasing as many pieces of black powder weaponry as possible and searching for ways to combat certain tactics.

While both the Khanates need for slaves and Nur Devlet’s wish to test the new weaponry he acquired, there was also a fear which compelled him towards entering the conflict. The possibility that the Grand Duchy of Lithuania would somehow lose the conflict was a terrifying prospect to the Khan Qirim, as this would mean the loss of his biggest trading partner, his only ally, and, of course, the guarantee that Crimean Khanate would remain under his control. After all, his brother Menli was still alive and if he was able to gain support from a substantial power, such as the Ottoman Empire, he could still come back to reclaim the throne. And alone, Nur Devlet couldn’t win such a war.

And thus, in the beginning of fall in year 1480 the Crimean Khanate declared war on the Grand Duchy of Muscovy and its allies, joining the alliance arranged against the realm. He swiftly raised a twenty thousand strong force, such a process was quite faster in a semi-nomadic realm, and began moving northeast, where he was able to catch up with the army led by Ahmet Khan of the Great Horde. And while both Khans had conducted raids upon each other realms before, they were able to collaborate this time. It isn’t known how grand in size was the force led by Ahmet, it is claimed that it was the biggest Tatar army that was gathered in the 15th century.

Combined Tatar forces advanced until they reached the Ugra river in October, specifically the Oka-Ugra junction, where they were met by the Muscovites, led by Ivan the Young. While the Muscovites were substantially outnumbered by their enemies, they were better equipped, possessing far greater amounts of cannons and other black powder weaponry than similar equipment that was brought by Nur Devlet. Of course in a conventional battle, the Tatars would still be able to quickly overwhelm the Slavs through sheer numbers of both their soldiers an countless projectiles that could be launched by such a force. But this wasn’t a conventional battle as both groups were trapped on the opposite sides of the Ugra river, which was impossible for both sides to cross due to how wide it was, with Muscovites occupying the northern side and Crimean and Great Horde holding to the south.

Such an unique position meant that the only way for the armies to engage was firing projectiles across the river, which they, begging in 15th of October, they did. The battlefield extended seven kilometers along the Ugra from its mouth westward, with both sides unleashing as many arrows and bullets as they could. However, as mentioned previously, the river was quite wide, rendering many of the projectiles launched by the Tatars ineffective. And every attempt to cross the river, as mentioned previously, proved to be disastrous.

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Miniature in a Ruthenian chronicle depicting the engagement near the Ugra River

However, while it seemed that the Muscovites were holding on, this was not the case as they were extremely overextended just by trying to hold the kilometers upon kilometers of the river. This meant that Ivan was in quite a horrible position, as he couldn't spare any forces to stop Nur Devlet and a part of his forces from crossing the river at a location called „Opakhon“, several kilometers to the west from the battle.

This occurrence, which happened on 28th of October, led to the so called „Great slaughter at the Ugra River“, as Nur Devlet‘s forces struck at Muscovites from the west, while Ahmed began an all-out assault across the river. While Ivan the Young himself and quite a few of his men escaped and were able to fled north, where he met up with the forces of his uncle. The rest of his army was either killed or captured by the Tatars, who proceeded to sent them south as slaves. They capitalized on this success by pillaging various nearby settlements, plundering any foodstuffs they could find, after all, such a massive force required similarly massive amounts of supplies, and the sheep that the Tatar force was bringing with themselves weren't numerous enough to sustain them for long, forcing the nomadic force to scavenge for sustenance, massively slowing their advance.

While this was happening, Grand Duke Casimir of Lithuania had finally completed gathering his own army in the end of November. This force wasn't as grand the Tatar horde that was plundering the southern Muscovite territories, but it was more than enough to match any of the forces that Ivan had gathered. However due to the late date at which this was done, Casimir couldn't begin his campaign and was forced to wait for spring.

Differently from the failures of his son, Grand Duke Ivan the Third was extremely successful in his campaign into Novgorod. In a repeat of the scenario that have happened almost a decade ago, the Muscovite army was easily able to crush any forces that the merchant republic could throw at them. He was even able to besiege several of the Novgorodian cities, including the capital itself. However, this strain of successes couldn't continue, as the Tatar victory and the near destruction of one of the Muscovite armies forced him to break the sieges and move south to stop the advances of his enemies.

When he reached Moscow, where he met up with the forces of both his son and his brother, he moved the national treasury and other members of the royal family to the city of Beloozero. He also began raising another force, trying to compensate for the army that was lost near river Ugra. The Grand Duke also requested his vassals to raise their own armies and come to help him.

The onset of winter was just perfect for the plans of the Muscovite monarch as it meant that his enemies would be unable to advance into his realm, giving him valuable to time to enact all of his plans and prepare to push out both the Tatars and Lithuanians.

Even at this point, if everything went well for Ivan the Third, he could still emerge victorious, at least that‘s what he himself seemed to believe. Novgorod was already defeated, and while the forces of Great Horde, Crimean Khanate and Grand Duchy of Lithuania were still a threat, various sources claim that Ivan believed that even the combined forces of these realms wouldn't be enough to defeat both the armies loyal to him subjugate the realm.

And while Ivan was possibly correct to assume that if his realm was united and he received assistance from his vassals and allies he could emerge victorious, however neither of these things would happen, due to his own previous actions. He would simply refuse to share any of his conquests with his brothers, for example. Not only that, but he forced both his brothers and various dukes of minor Ruthenian duchies to sign treaties with him. In these documents they were forced to promise that after their death, their realms would be inherited by Ivan.

All of this meant that instead of gathering armies to support Muscovy, they would ignore the call for war, instead gathering their armies and waiting. However, one of the Grand Duke's brothers - Andrei the Elder, was ready to use this opportunity to seat himself on the Muscovite throne.

During the winter he gathered an army from both his own lands and estates and the ones of his supporters and preparing for a campaign to seat himself on the throne in Moscow. He also began negotiations with both Ahmet Khan and Casimir Jaggelion in order to gain their help. And through quite a few promises in case of victory, including having to pay a yearly tribute to Great Horde and return quite a few territories to the Republic of Novgorod, he was able to ensure the help of Lithuania and Great Horde Tatars.

And as winter turned to spring the war continued. The forces of Crimean Khanate, Grand Duchy of Lithuania and Great Horde began their advances anew. It was also at this time that Andrei began his revolt, joining his forces with the ones of Casimir Jaggelion.

This started a chain reaction, as now the various dukes of Ruthenian minors, seeing an opportunity to strike, rebelled and turned against their previous overlord.

Ivan had made many enemies during his years as the Grand Duke, and now it led to him being besieged on all sides.
 
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